It's very encouraging to see the DCCC and House Majority PAC putting real money into IA-01. They left Christina Bohannan hanging in 2022, spending nothing while Republican-aligned groups spent millions helping Miller-Meeks.
I'm glad that there's actual investments being made in Iowa once more and not writing it off as a lost cause. Outside of the 4th district, Iowa's other 3 congressional districts have all had close, often razor close elections in recent years. Heck, the house race for IA-02 in 2020 was decided by only 6 votes total. Now I wonder how the races for the other districts in Iowa are faring. Hopefully they get some funding too.
Primary day is here in Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island. In Delaware and Rhode Island, the polls close at 8 PM Eastern. In New Hampshire, they close at 7 or 8 PM Eastern depending on the local jurisdiction.
I'm adding an 8th state to my The Path to Victory series: Florida. I'm mainly looking at where Trump was able to outpace Clinton in 2016 & increase his margin in 2020 & if Harris re-building Obama's 2012 margins in Democratic strongholds will be enough.
Nice. Florida could be a real wild card, and if so, probably a dispositive one. But I like the Harris campaign's approach, which seems to be focusing on the states where (1) a Harris win likely means an overall Harris victory and presidency; and (2) a state victory would not depart from recent "norms." I think the only exception to that perceived (by me) strategy is North Carolina. They really seem to think they can win there.
As a Floridian; I see a more promising future for the state Democratic party than I have since Lawton Chiles was governor(haven't had a Democratic governor since 1998)
It will be interesting to see the MSM's snap, click-snarfing analysis of tonight's debate. Perhaps CNN will embed another independent, completely undecided MAGA loyalist in their reaction panel.
More locally, I'm really impressed at the outreach that the Whitesides campaign is doing here in CA-27. Their canvassing operation appears to be top-notch. Hopefully they can translate their COH and registration advantages into divesting us of a truly horrible "representative."
My friends and I are attending a "debate boycott" party tonite. None of us want to be sickened by the hate, insults and LIES spewing from tfg's pie hole!!!!
Here in Portland there are multiple debate watch parties, which are very useful to the Democrats and to the Harris campaign specifically. We are fired up, and ready to go!
The more people who watch, the better it will be for the Harris campaign, and the more likely
the media's spin will be that Democrats are fired up.
It's also good to get the media to report that people are excited about the election. That is why the top priority of the Harris campaign for the last week is to get people to attend debate watch parties.
I respect anyone who is avoiding listening to the "debate" to avoid hearing more odious shit from Trump, but here's what's terrifying: https://politicalwire.com/2024/09/10/third-of-voters-say-tonights-debate-will-help-them-decide/ Actually, 30% of registered voters, per an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, but the point is, these dumb charades are hugely impactful. We are all very much aware of the impact the last one made on the race. So watching it yourselves will probably give you more understanding of the dynamics of the election than looking at the next opinion poll's crosstabs.
Remember the first five minutes of this summer’s Biden-Trump debate and that dawning sense of dread? This debate felt like the opposite. It was a joyful experience to watch.
"Adam Frisch anticipates logging around 70,000 miles of driving by the time his campaign for Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District is over — about 128 miles for every vote he lost by in 2022.
Frisch, a Democrat who previously served on Aspen City Council, lost a narrow race against Lauren Boebert last time around. In February 2023, he officially signed up for a rematch, only to lose his foil at the end of the year when Boebert chose to leave for a safer Republican seat.
Jeff Hurd is now the Republican nominee, but Frisch says his campaign was not anti-Boebert, but rather pro-Western and Southern Colorado.
“People are really sick of this lack of authenticity and sincerity and transparency,” Frisch said, “and one of the reasons that we've been able to connect so well is because we show up.”
In recent months, Frisch has been touting his support for abortion care, including his multiple family members who worked as obstetricians. He told Colorado Matters he’s concerned about climate change, but doesn’t want to shut off Colorado energy and that most of the residents he speaks with are concerned about losing access to rural hospitals."
This race got downgraded to likely R. I live in CO-5 today and wish there were efforts being put in place here.
El Paso County, home to Colorado Springs, now casts more votes than Denver. I’ve seen no signs for either Harris or the Democratic candidate in CO-5. There seems to be no efforts here.
No campaign has called me as part of GOTV efforts. No one has knocked on my door. It’s like the CO Democratic Party is nonexistent here.
Sorry to hear that. I don't think Harris will campaign much in what has to be a safe Democratic state for her to have a chance to win, but local folks should be getting in touch with you.
Harris won't be in Colorado(nor should she); have you contacted your local or state party??; what's your local slate like? Competitive races?? Thanks..just curious as to the ground
I would really be surprised if either the state party or county DEC didn't mail out some type of democratic slate card or some type of gotv reminder call to you
"Crank reported $208,000 in donations in the most recent fundraising period, versus $79,000 for Williams. Those totals were collected before Williams sent out an email to party members disparaging the LBGT community, which has led several county GOP party heads in Colorado to demand he resign.
The two Democrats in the 5th District primary — River Gassen and Joe Reagan — together collected about half of what Williams reported in donations. The district is a Republican stronghold centered on El Paso County."
Agreeing that the CDP can spend more time here Gassen is not running like a competitive candidate regardless. See if she picks up the pace in Q3.
Polls have shown close races in New Hampshire that will be decided tonight. I'm hoping we have some clear winners and not some drawn out mess this late in the game because I am concerned about divisive primaries like we had in Arizona that may complicate competitive races.
The only reason why they are still in September is because "tradition." It mattered less in a time when political affiliation in New England and in much of the northeast in general was primarily based on religion and ethnicity. The Kennedys were Democrats because they were Irish Catholics. The Chaffees were Republicans because they were English and Episcopalians. In this VERY partisan area when the primary difference of the two parties nationally is on ideology, it makes absolutely no sense.
A more conspiratorial explanation I heard, at least for Massachusetts, is that it discourages students and younger renters (who often move at the beginning of September) from participating. And that while the Democratic supermajority likes having those voters in November, they worry they might be more inclined to support a challenger in the primary.
I agree that our "perpetual campaign" is bad for our democracy, but I think the solution, unfortunately has to be amending the Constitution to allow restrictions on political spending. Then perhaps we could change the calendar in conjunction with other changes. Simply moving primaries without restricting spending (or even prohibiting spending outside of the designated season, as many countries do) would advantage incumbents and not really help with the problem.
The problem with your argument is that we are going to have "perpetual campaigns" in any case here in the USA. Keeping the primaries late doesn't shorten the campaigns. They just lengthen the primary campaigns at the expense of the general election campaigns.
North Carolina must reprint ballots WITHOUT RFK Jr. Well at least we got Michigan. Guess this was too much to hope for. No word yet on how this will delay then actually going out.
Personally I think the Supreme Court's action pisses off more Democrats than helps the GOP. Just another reminder why the GOP should no longer be in charge in the state.
Any indication how the Ohio Haitian hoax might affect down ballot contests there? Is the misinformation riling up Republican voters or is there any chance it will backfire and help Sherrod Brown?
It appears Francine is going to make landfall Wednesday late afternoon/early evening as a weak Category 2, still strong but probably not as catastrophic as it could be.
We got invited to a debate watch party tonight, so we'll be going to a friend's place to watch the debate. I haven't had a debate watch party since college.
Stein is cruising; bar any scandal, it's basically over
It's very encouraging to see the DCCC and House Majority PAC putting real money into IA-01. They left Christina Bohannan hanging in 2022, spending nothing while Republican-aligned groups spent millions helping Miller-Meeks.
The newly announced tv air time reservations in IA-01 will reach 17 of the district's 20 counties. https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2024/09/09/in-good-sign-for-bohannan-national-democrats-investing-in-ia-01/
I'm glad that there's actual investments being made in Iowa once more and not writing it off as a lost cause. Outside of the 4th district, Iowa's other 3 congressional districts have all had close, often razor close elections in recent years. Heck, the house race for IA-02 in 2020 was decided by only 6 votes total. Now I wonder how the races for the other districts in Iowa are faring. Hopefully they get some funding too.
Primary day is here in Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island. In Delaware and Rhode Island, the polls close at 8 PM Eastern. In New Hampshire, they close at 7 or 8 PM Eastern depending on the local jurisdiction.
I'm adding an 8th state to my The Path to Victory series: Florida. I'm mainly looking at where Trump was able to outpace Clinton in 2016 & increase his margin in 2020 & if Harris re-building Obama's 2012 margins in Democratic strongholds will be enough.
Nice. Florida could be a real wild card, and if so, probably a dispositive one. But I like the Harris campaign's approach, which seems to be focusing on the states where (1) a Harris win likely means an overall Harris victory and presidency; and (2) a state victory would not depart from recent "norms." I think the only exception to that perceived (by me) strategy is North Carolina. They really seem to think they can win there.
As a Floridian; I see a more promising future for the state Democratic party than I have since Lawton Chiles was governor(haven't had a Democratic governor since 1998)
It will be interesting to see the MSM's snap, click-snarfing analysis of tonight's debate. Perhaps CNN will embed another independent, completely undecided MAGA loyalist in their reaction panel.
More locally, I'm really impressed at the outreach that the Whitesides campaign is doing here in CA-27. Their canvassing operation appears to be top-notch. Hopefully they can translate their COH and registration advantages into divesting us of a truly horrible "representative."
Lots of vomit-inducing both-sidery and sane-washing.
Good Econ news:
Oil dips below $70 for first time since 2021. If hurricanes don’t impact supply, gas prices should continue to fall.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brent-oil-tumbles-below-70-141310356.html
My friends and I are attending a "debate boycott" party tonite. None of us want to be sickened by the hate, insults and LIES spewing from tfg's pie hole!!!!
Yeah, personally I'm way more interested in the results of the primaries here in New Hampshire than in the debate.
I just hope that Granite State Democrats unite swiftly and quickly after tonight. We have less than two months to the general election.
I am too although I'm not expecting any big surprises here.
What NH primary are you most curious to see the results of?
The Congressional and gubernatorial primaries
Are you working the polls??
I plan on watching a movie.
I'm watching baseball
My "Debate Watch Party" is an 8pm showing of Beetlejuice Beetlejuice with some buddies for a mutual birthday.
Going to watch it so can I can be informed if voters bring pieces of it up that are not played in the soundbites.
Here in Portland there are multiple debate watch parties, which are very useful to the Democrats and to the Harris campaign specifically. We are fired up, and ready to go!
The more people who watch, the better it will be for the Harris campaign, and the more likely
the media's spin will be that Democrats are fired up.
I encourage everyone to watch it.
You do you, of course.
They are good for firing up the ground troops
agree...no need to fire up a bunch of 70 and 80 year old geezers who wouldn't vote republican, period!! :-)
It's also good to get the media to report that people are excited about the election. That is why the top priority of the Harris campaign for the last week is to get people to attend debate watch parties.
I'm watching a volleyball match on the Big Ten Network, which appears the be the most notable sporting event on TV tonight.
I respect anyone who is avoiding listening to the "debate" to avoid hearing more odious shit from Trump, but here's what's terrifying: https://politicalwire.com/2024/09/10/third-of-voters-say-tonights-debate-will-help-them-decide/ Actually, 30% of registered voters, per an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, but the point is, these dumb charades are hugely impactful. We are all very much aware of the impact the last one made on the race. So watching it yourselves will probably give you more understanding of the dynamics of the election than looking at the next opinion poll's crosstabs.
anyone whose mind is not made up should watch the debate
It would be better for them to look at the records of the two candidates and the charges and civil suits Trump has been guilty of and liable for.
Remember the first five minutes of this summer’s Biden-Trump debate and that dawning sense of dread? This debate felt like the opposite. It was a joyful experience to watch.
CO-03 Colorado Public Radio conducted an interview with Adam Frisch that I caught most of on my way home from the gym last night.
https://www.cpr.org/2024/09/09/interview-adam-frisch-colorado-3rd-congressional-district/
"Adam Frisch anticipates logging around 70,000 miles of driving by the time his campaign for Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District is over — about 128 miles for every vote he lost by in 2022.
Frisch, a Democrat who previously served on Aspen City Council, lost a narrow race against Lauren Boebert last time around. In February 2023, he officially signed up for a rematch, only to lose his foil at the end of the year when Boebert chose to leave for a safer Republican seat.
Jeff Hurd is now the Republican nominee, but Frisch says his campaign was not anti-Boebert, but rather pro-Western and Southern Colorado.
“People are really sick of this lack of authenticity and sincerity and transparency,” Frisch said, “and one of the reasons that we've been able to connect so well is because we show up.”
In recent months, Frisch has been touting his support for abortion care, including his multiple family members who worked as obstetricians. He told Colorado Matters he’s concerned about climate change, but doesn’t want to shut off Colorado energy and that most of the residents he speaks with are concerned about losing access to rural hospitals."
This race got downgraded to likely R. I live in CO-5 today and wish there were efforts being put in place here.
El Paso County, home to Colorado Springs, now casts more votes than Denver. I’ve seen no signs for either Harris or the Democratic candidate in CO-5. There seems to be no efforts here.
No campaign has called me as part of GOTV efforts. No one has knocked on my door. It’s like the CO Democratic Party is nonexistent here.
Sorry to hear that. I don't think Harris will campaign much in what has to be a safe Democratic state for her to have a chance to win, but local folks should be getting in touch with you.
Harris won't be in Colorado(nor should she); have you contacted your local or state party??; what's your local slate like? Competitive races?? Thanks..just curious as to the ground
I can’t volunteer due to the Hatch Act.
I would really be surprised if either the state party or county DEC didn't mail out some type of democratic slate card or some type of gotv reminder call to you
They haven’t yet. Last cycle, though, I got an anti-LBGTQ flyer attacking trans children in Spanish.
Not from the Democratic party; lol
"Crank reported $208,000 in donations in the most recent fundraising period, versus $79,000 for Williams. Those totals were collected before Williams sent out an email to party members disparaging the LBGT community, which has led several county GOP party heads in Colorado to demand he resign.
The two Democrats in the 5th District primary — River Gassen and Joe Reagan — together collected about half of what Williams reported in donations. The district is a Republican stronghold centered on El Paso County."
Agreeing that the CDP can spend more time here Gassen is not running like a competitive candidate regardless. See if she picks up the pace in Q3.
https://www.denverpost.com/2024/06/15/colorado-congressional-races-fundraising-primary-election-lauren-boebert/
Not competitive; explains a few things
Polls have shown close races in New Hampshire that will be decided tonight. I'm hoping we have some clear winners and not some drawn out mess this late in the game because I am concerned about divisive primaries like we had in Arizona that may complicate competitive races.
The primary is too late in the cycle
Yeah, I really wish all States would move their primaries to the Spring. It just makes more sense to me.
The only reason why they are still in September is because "tradition." It mattered less in a time when political affiliation in New England and in much of the northeast in general was primarily based on religion and ethnicity. The Kennedys were Democrats because they were Irish Catholics. The Chaffees were Republicans because they were English and Episcopalians. In this VERY partisan area when the primary difference of the two parties nationally is on ideology, it makes absolutely no sense.
A more conspiratorial explanation I heard, at least for Massachusetts, is that it discourages students and younger renters (who often move at the beginning of September) from participating. And that while the Democratic supermajority likes having those voters in November, they worry they might be more inclined to support a challenger in the primary.
I disagree completely and want it to go the other way. I wish all primaries were in the late summer or fall.
The United States has the longest elections by far and it is absolutely horrible for our democracy.
I agree that our "perpetual campaign" is bad for our democracy, but I think the solution, unfortunately has to be amending the Constitution to allow restrictions on political spending. Then perhaps we could change the calendar in conjunction with other changes. Simply moving primaries without restricting spending (or even prohibiting spending outside of the designated season, as many countries do) would advantage incumbents and not really help with the problem.
The problem with your argument is that we are going to have "perpetual campaigns" in any case here in the USA. Keeping the primaries late doesn't shorten the campaigns. They just lengthen the primary campaigns at the expense of the general election campaigns.
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4871613-north-carolina-supreme-court-rfk-jr-ballot-win/
North Carolina must reprint ballots WITHOUT RFK Jr. Well at least we got Michigan. Guess this was too much to hope for. No word yet on how this will delay then actually going out.
RFK Jr would’ve likely made a minuscule difference.
A miniscule difference might very well decide the state and the presidency unfortunately.
Personally I think the Supreme Court's action pisses off more Democrats than helps the GOP. Just another reminder why the GOP should no longer be in charge in the state.
We'll see.
Could be. I would suggest very few people will really care, though.
Any indication how the Ohio Haitian hoax might affect down ballot contests there? Is the misinformation riling up Republican voters or is there any chance it will backfire and help Sherrod Brown?
Getting a hurricane about to roll into Louisiana as we speak, although it doesnt look strong enough at this point to have a major impact.
Stay safe; have plenty of booze stocked and batteries
Whoops. Looks like this didnt attach to the comment I was trying to comment on.
Im not in Louisiana.
It appears Francine is going to make landfall Wednesday late afternoon/early evening as a weak Category 2, still strong but probably not as catastrophic as it could be.
As a sign of this site's growing (and pernicious) influence, anti-DB stickers are starting to appear in my neighborhood!
https://photos.app.goo.gl/egxewhCiLowT8SdC9
P.S. I have no idea what that sticker actually means.
P.P.S. Can you attach a photo to a comment?
No dirt bikes maybe?
We're safe so far: We're going by TDB! And I looked, unlike DKE, it doesn't share any acronyms with any prominent frats.
That makes us Beta house??..
We're a sibling of GDI https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=GDI
True story; one of my college roommates had a Gamma Delta Iota jersey
This is hilarious! I love that you shared this. This battlestation is now fully armed and operational!
Unfortunately Substack doesn't allow for embedding photos in comments. But if you join our Discord server, you can drop images there!
We got invited to a debate watch party tonight, so we'll be going to a friend's place to watch the debate. I haven't had a debate watch party since college.
My first voting election. I feel you there.
I'm old though. My first Presidential vote was for Bill Clinton.
You are not very old...
Thank you. I'm being a bit flippant since I would be a child in the Senate for example.
And you're several years younger than I am.
Slew of new polling.
Virginia Presidential from the Washington Post
Harris 51
Trump 43
Party Identification from Gallup
49% Democrat
46% Republican
Redfield/Wilton
Arizona-
Trump +1
Gallego + 6
Florida-
Trump + 6
Scott +3
North Carolina-
Harris 45-44
Stein 42-33
Georgia-
Trump +2
Nevada-
Trump +1
Rosen +8
Michigan-
Harris +3
Slotting +5
Pennsylvania-
Pres- TIE
Casey +8
Wisconsin-
Harris +3
Baldwin+7
New Mexico-
Harris 49-44
Likely voters from 9/9
ActiVote 400 LVs from 9/10
Georgia TIE
WRAL poll has KH +3 in NC...not sure if this is the poll that was here yesterday...looking for link. Also has Stein +13 or 14. Found one link: https://www.wral.com/story/harris-has-slight-edge-in-neck-and-neck-race-with-trump-in-nc-wral-news-poll-shows/21616373/
https://www.wral.com/story/stein-boosted-by-conservatives-carries-wider-lead-against-robinson-in-race-for-nc-governor-wral-news-poll-shows/21617869/
Put a fork in Robinson, he's done
Thank God.
Glad the GOP nominated him. He's helping us in the NC-GOV race and could also in a way help Kamala Harris in NC as well.
Despite Governor Glenn Youngkin winning the 2023 VA Gubernatorial Race, VA is still very much out of reach for Trump.
MO Supreme Court orders Abortion amendment to remain on ballot. https://x.com/LucasABC17/status/1833586593724281167
Yippee! Amendment 3 will be on Missouri ballots.