Morning Digest: Join us tonight for our first-ever live video coverage of election night!
And we're bringing on a special guest
Leading Off
Election Night
Tonight, The Downballot will host our first-ever live video coverage of election night, so be sure to tune in when the first polls close at 7 PM ET!
You can watch in the free Substack app (which will notify you when we go live) or by clicking this link. Join publisher David Nir and contributor David Beard as we dissect the results in real time and take your questions live.
We'll also be joined by a special guest: data journalist G. Elliott Morris, the former head of 538 who now publishes his own data-centric newsletter about elections, Strength in Numbers. You'll definitely want to subscribe (it's free right now!), and you can also pledge to become a supporter in the future.
Our livestream will be open to all, but to participate in our Q&A, you'll need to be a paid subscriber of The Downballot. Haven't upgraded your subscription yet? Just click the button below:
We've got a whole host of critical elections on the docket, including:
A special election for the House in northeastern Florida, where Republicans have been sweating despite the district's deep-red hue.
The pivotal battle for control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which liberals are defending just two years after winning their first majority since 2008.
A crucial top-two primary in Omaha, where Democrats are hoping to win the mayor's race for the first time since 2009.
And many more. Elliott has also prepared an extremely helpful set of county benchmarks for the Wisconsin race that will help you keep track of whether each candidate is hitting the share of the vote they need in each county in order to win statewide.
We look forward to seeing you live—and answering your questions—later tonight!
If you enjoy our live election night coverage, then please consider becoming a paid subscriber of The Downballot!
Senate
FL-Sen
Scandal-plagued Rep. Cory Mills informs Politico he's still considering challenging appointed Sen. Ashley Moody, a fellow Republican. Mills, however, added that he's most concerned about whether Donald Trump would back him in next year's GOP primary against Moody.
IA-Sen
State Sen. Zach Wahls expressed interest in taking on Republican Sen. Joni Ernst in a new interview over the weekend, making him the first notable Iowa Democrat to do so. Wahls told Gray Media's Dave Price last week that he would decide sometime after the end of the current legislative session, which Price says will probably wrap in April or May.
Wahls, Bleeding Heartland's Laura Belin writes, earned national attention years ago by invoking his experience being raised by two mothers while testifying against a proposed same-sex marriage ban. Wahls, who was 19 at the time, told a legislative panel, "I'm actually an Eagle Scout, I own and operate my own small business. If I was your son, Mr. Chairman, I believe I'd make you very proud."
Wahls went on to win a seat in the state Senate in 2018 and became minority leader in 2021. However, he was ousted from his leadership post in 2023 after he angered fellow Democrats by firing two longtime legislative staffers.
IL-Sen
Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin told ABC 7 Friday he'll reveal whether he'll run again "in a few weeks." Politico previously reported that the 80-year-old incumbent anticipates he'll announce his plans before the Cook County Democratic Party begins its process of interviewing candidates ahead of issuing endorsements on April 16.
MN-Sen, MN-AG
Democratic Attorney General Keith Ellison revealed he wouldn't run for the Senate on Monday by endorsing Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan's campaign to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Ellison, whose 2018 win made him the first Muslim elected to statewide office anywhere in the country, is eligible to seek a third term as Minnesota's attorney general next year, though he has not yet announced if he will.
NH-Sen
Former Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky declined to rule out seeking the Democratic nomination for New Hampshire's open Senate seat when WMUR's Adam Sexton asked him over the weekend. Volinsky, who unsuccessfully sought the party's nomination for governor in 2020, said he was "flattered to be mentioned" but was concentrating on promoting his new book. (The relevant portion of the interview begins at the 6:20 mark.)
Governors
CA-Gov
Jake Steinfeld, an actor and fitness trainer whose "Body by Jake" infomercials were ubiquitous in the 1980s and 1990s, tells Fox News that "[t]here's a good chance that I'm going to run for governor of California" as a Republican. Steinfeld, who is also the uncle of actress and singer Hailee Steinfeld, would compete in a top-two primary that already includes one prominent conservative, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
CO-Gov
Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet tells Politico's Jonathan Martin he'll announce early this month if he's running for governor of Colorado, and Martin's sources believe he's all but guaranteed to go for it. While Bennet himself wouldn't reveal his decision, he used the interview to express his unhappiness that "[t]he duties of the senators have been sucked up basically into the leadership of the Senate."
GA-Gov
Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath unexpectedly announced Monday that she was suspending her exploratory committee for what had looked like an all-but-certain bid for governor of Georgia, saying her husband had been experiencing complications as he battles a cancer diagnosis. The congresswoman told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that she still might run to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Brian Kemp but could not make a definitive decision right now.
Several other Peach State Democrats are also eyeing the race, including former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, but she's now found herself the subject of unwanted attention over her ties to a far-right operative. NOTUS' Ben Mause reports that Jason Boles serves as the treasurer of Lance Bottoms' nonprofit and counts Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene among his clients. Boles also became treasurer for none other than George Santos shortly after Santos was indicted in 2023.
Lance Bottoms confirmed to Mause that Boles was doing "regulatory reporting and registered event services" for her nonprofit but did not address his political affiliations. Boles, who last month tweeted that congressional Democrats' "absolute failure to put America first is disgusting," did not respond to Mause's inquiries.
MA-Gov
Former medical technology executive Michael Minogue is considering seeking the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Gov. Maura Healey, Politico's Kelly Garrity reports. Minogue, a prominent GOP donor with ties to Donald Trump, has not publicly expressed interest in running to lead dark blue Massachusetts.
OK-Gov
Former state Sen. Mike Mazzei filed paperwork Thursday for a potential campaign to replace Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt, who cannot seek a third term. Mazzei joined Stitt's cabinet in 2019 as his budget secretary but stepped down the next year following clashes with his former legislative colleagues.
House
AZ-05
Former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely is mulling a run for Arizona's conservative 5th District, reports the Washington Post's Yvonne Wingett Sanchez. Feely, whom Sanchez says is an "[o]ccasional Trump golf partner and regular rally attendee," is eyeing the seat that far-right Rep. Andy Biggs is giving up to run for governor.
AZ-07
Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva announced Monday that she would compete in the July 15 Democratic primary to replace her late father, Rep. Raul Grijalva, in Arizona's solidly blue 7th District.
The younger Grijalva, who will resign from her current post on Friday due to the state's resign-to-run law, entered the contest with the support of Tucson Mayor Regina Romero. Grijalva, who is of Mexican descent, would be the first Latina to represent Arizona in Congress.
The only other prominent Democrat running so far is former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. The candidate filing deadline is April 14.
FL-19
Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno's team says he's considering running for Florida's safely red 19th District even as he remains under federal investigation over money laundering allegations. The Republican, who has denounced the accusations against him as "politically motivated," is eyeing the seat that GOP Rep. Byron Donalds is giving up to run for governor.
NJ-07
Disney executive James Filippatos is considering seeking the Democratic nomination to face Republican Rep. Tom Kean, Politico's Matt Friedman reports. Filippatos, who is a former lawyer at the U.S. State Department, has not said anything publicly about his interest in seeking the 7th District in northwestern New Jersey.
Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett and former Summit Councilman Greg Vartan are already competing in the Democratic primary to take on Kean in this competitive constituency. According to calculations by The Downballot, Donald Trump carried the 7th by a slender 49.6-48.5 spread last year.
NV-03
Video game composer Marty O'Donnell announced Monday that he's again seeking the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Rep. Susie Lee, but he added that he would only place his name on the ballot next year if he has Donald Trump's backing. Nevada's filing deadline is in mid-March.
O'Donnell, who helped compose the soundtracks for several entries in the "Halo" franchise, competed in last year's GOP primary to face Lee in the 3rd District in the southwestern Las Vegas area. O'Donnell self-funded over $1 million and enjoyed the support of Gov. Joe Lombardo, but his self-described "side quest" into politics ended with a fourth-place showing. (Trump did not take sides in the primary.)
The GOP nomination instead went to conservative columnist Drew Johnson, but major outside groups abandoned his underfunded campaign well before Election Day. That pessimism may have saved Lee: The congresswoman held on by a narrow 51-49 margin as Trump, according to calculations by The Downballot, narrowly won her constituency 49.5-48.8.
NY-21
Businessman Anthony Constantino didn't rule out running for Congress to the Watertown Daily Times on Friday in an interview that took place one day after Donald Trump pulled Rep. Elise Stefanik's nomination to be ambassador to the United Nations.
Stefanik, notes reporter Alex Gault, has not yet committed to seeking reelection in the 21st District, which was the setting of the congresswoman's February goodbye tour.
Trump himself teased that she may eventually be able to bid sayonara to the North Country when he wrote last week, "I look forward to the day when Elise is able to join my Administration in the future," but he didn't offer anything more than his reassurance that she's "absolutely FANTASTIC."
Secretaries of State & Attorneys General
AZ-SoS, AZ-AG
Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes announced Friday that he would seek reelection two days after he decided not to run for Congress. Soon after, a Republican hardliner quickly announced that he would challenge Arizona's top elections official.
On Monday, state Rep. Alexander Kolodin, who is a member of the state's Freedom Caucus affiliate, became the first notable candidate to oppose Fontes. Kolodin, notes the Washington Post's Yvonne Wingett Sanchez, helped provide legal representation for the state's fake electors following the 2020 election. The state bar later sanctioned him for bringing litigation attempting to overturn the election results in bad faith as part of a settlement that required him to admit he'd violated ethics rules.
Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes, who is continuing to prosecute the fake electors, already faced GOP opposition in her bid for a second term next year. Former Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman, a former Democrat who has unsuccessfully run for higher office several times, kicked off his newest campaign in November, while state Senate President Warren Petersen filed a statement of interest in January.
Mayors & County Leaders
Boston, MA Mayor
So much for that: Developer Thomas O'Brien said Monday he wouldn't run for mayor of Boston just days after multiple media outlets reported he'd be launching his campaign this week. Nonprofit head Josh Kraft remains Mayor Michelle Wu's only notable challenger in this fall's election.
Oakland, CA Mayor
A group backing former City Councilman Loren Taylor has released an internal poll that shows him with a 45-40 lead over former Rep. Barbara Lee, whom even Taylor previously acknowledged is the frontrunner in the April 15 special election for mayor of Oakland. The survey from EMC Research finds Taylor prevailing by an identical 51-46 margin after simulating the ranked-choice process.
The poll was released shortly after Taylor publicized his own numbers from Blueprint Polling that found Lee ahead 45-41, which the memo said represented a massive gain for the councilman compared to a month prior. Lee's team responded to the Blueprint poll by arguing that their canvassers have shown Lee doing well with the voters they've contacted, but they did not release any contradictory data.
St. Louis, MO Mayor
The Republican pollster Remington Research Group finds St. Louis Alderwoman Cara Spencer with a huge 55-31 advantage over Mayor Tishaura Jones ahead of the April 8 general election showdown between the two Democrats. This survey, which was conducted for the political tip-sheet Missouri Scout, is the first poll we've seen since Spencer finished far ahead of Jones in last month's officially nonpartisan primary.
Upping what David put yesterday now that it’s April 1:
“ A reminder: April Fool's jokes are prohibited on this site. This is a long-standing policy. Do not share or make any such jokes. And please be extra mindful tomorrow when sharing links, tweets, etc., because it's too easy to mistake a poorly executed "joke" for the truth. Thank you.”
I’ve seen bad April Fool’s jokes like you wouldn’t believe that people treated as real. Mark Warner retiring in 2019. Joe Manchin joining the GOP in 2021. Donna Shalala running against Marco Rubio in 2021. They were all unpleasant to deal with.
TX 18:
Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the Democratic House leader, on Monday accused Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas of deliberately delaying a special election in a solidly Democratic district in Houston in order to cushion the House Republicans’ slim majority.
A spokesman for Mr. Abbott declined to address the Democrats’ criticisms and to say whether the governor had spoken with House Republicans about the Houston seat.
“An announcement on a special election will be made at a later date,” the spokesman, Andrew Mahaleris, said in a statement.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/us/texas-house-seat.html
Looks as though the seat will remain vacant at least until November. Unless there is judicial intervention.