Per what Paleo is citing in the data, Independent voter turnout is dropping a bit.
However, with Independents we don't always know if they will stay Independent or if they end up eventually moving to either the Democratic or Republican Party. It depends on how their ideology has evolved.
It appears that FL Independents are more middle road, moderate voters who aren't necessarily inclined to being loyalists to either political party. That said, cost of living, inflation and the abortion issue seem to be factors for independents.
Realistically this special election shouldn't be promising.
Reminds me a lot of GA-06 special election in 2017. It was an unlikely pickup from the start, but dems got excited about it because there was a non-zero chance we would win.
Even losing this district by 15 points tonight would be an enormous overperformance. We need to keep everything in perspective when we assess whatever the results might be. In the end Wisconsin has long been the most important race happening today.
Voters today will probably lean Republican too (although not a guarantee). I’d guess Fine will win with 55-56% which would still be a pretty big over performance for Dems.
Doing some back of the napkin addition: if that level of Dem over performance was universal across the country in 2026, some 35+ house republicans would be at risk. Anyone who won with under 60% of the vote in 2024 would be in the danger zone.
FLORIDA 6th special turnout update
Total ballots cast: 140,568 at 12:00 PM EDT
🔴 GOP registered 70,858 ballots (50.4%)
🔵 DEM registered 47,638 ballots (33.9%)
⚪️ NPA/Other registered 22,072 ballots (15.7%)
2024 general ballots cast breakdown:
🔴 52% 🔵 26% ⚪️ 22%
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1907102468628160772
That doesn’t sound promising
Even if the Dem candidates in FL don't win tonight... if they lose by single digit percentages, it is a VERY good sign for Dems next year.
Do we think we’ll lose by single digits if only 34% of the voters are Democrats? Not sure how blue the npa voters are there.
And what's also interesting is how many how many Rs are ticked off at the Muskrat and FDJT enough to vote for the D candidates out of spite.
Per what Paleo is citing in the data, Independent voter turnout is dropping a bit.
However, with Independents we don't always know if they will stay Independent or if they end up eventually moving to either the Democratic or Republican Party. It depends on how their ideology has evolved.
It appears that FL Independents are more middle road, moderate voters who aren't necessarily inclined to being loyalists to either political party. That said, cost of living, inflation and the abortion issue seem to be factors for independents.
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/2022/03/21/democrats-need-independent-voters-win-statewide-florida-2022-desantis/6820769001/
https://floridadaily.com/florida-independents-could-be-decision-maker-in-2024-election/
And unsurprising. Trump won by 30, Waltz by 33.
Realistically this special election shouldn't be promising.
Reminds me a lot of GA-06 special election in 2017. It was an unlikely pickup from the start, but dems got excited about it because there was a non-zero chance we would win.
Even losing this district by 15 points tonight would be an enormous overperformance. We need to keep everything in perspective when we assess whatever the results might be. In the end Wisconsin has long been the most important race happening today.
GA-06 had a much better trendline though. This race reminds me more of the OH-02 special election back in the summer of 2005.
It was never promising for an actual win
Sure, but a high single digits loss like KS-4 in Trump’s first term would have been nice.
Voters today will probably lean Republican too (although not a guarantee). I’d guess Fine will win with 55-56% which would still be a pretty big over performance for Dems.
Doing some back of the napkin addition: if that level of Dem over performance was universal across the country in 2026, some 35+ house republicans would be at risk. Anyone who won with under 60% of the vote in 2024 would be in the danger zone.
Votes today leaning Rs is definitely an understatement.
The registration of FL06 is about R+23. Today’s turnout is R+37.
Looks like Florida’s endless hordes of Republicans have arrived lol
Any estimate of the non-MAGA Republicans in FL-06?