I've been arguing for a sort of reverse coattails for a while - just great slate of candidates on Dem side, horrible in GOP side (not just the Gov); and Dems seem better organized, and motivated, than they were during years this 50-50 state slid into GOP supermajority at state leg level
I don't frame it as reverse coattails but I think the 'Republicans in disarray' is a real thing in NC and can benefit the entire slate(including the Presidential)
Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. But kept getting shot down by folks saying "reverse coattails don't work". Which is probably true. But I think/hope there is an state-level enthusiasm gap that favors Ds
I'd take that result even with Brown losing. I think I have the House 227D-208R. I put very little thought into the House races, I just gave all the races I had at 50-50 to Dems after I saw the Selzer poll.
"I give credit to my method for my track record. I call my method, 'Polling Forward'. I want to be in a place where my data can show me what's likely to happen with the future electorate. So I just try to get out of the way of my data, saying this is what's going to happen.
"A lot of other polls, and I will count Emerson among them, are including in the way that they manipulate the data after it comes in things that have happened in the past. So they're taking into account exit polls, they're taking into account what turnout was in past elections.
"I don't make any assumptions like that, so in my way of thinking, it's a cleaner way to forecast future electorate which nobody knows what that's going to be. But we do know that our electorates change in terms of how many people are showing up, what the composition is, and so I don't want to try to predict what that's going to be. I want to be in a place for my data to show me."
Larry Sabato of the crystal ball moved Iowa01 from lean Republican all the way to lean Democratic based on the Selzer poll, the lean of the district and MMM’s weak primary performance. Something is happening in Iowa.
So it begins. Don't think I'll get much sleep where I am on the other side of the world.
While all eyes will be on Georgia when polls close at 7 pm, Indiana and Kentucky could offer some interesting tea leaves when they start reporting at 6 pm. Both of course should be near-instant calls for Trump, but Kenton County (Cincinnati suburbs) and especially Hamilton County (Indianapolis suburbs) could portend broader trends in the suburbs. Kenton shifted seven points left in 2020, while Hamilton shifted 12 points.
Conversely, rural Indiana - especially the northern part of the state that’s culturally more like Michigan or NW Ohio - is an interesting barometer of where the GOP is running in their core counties compared to 2016/20
For all you masochists out there, looks like the New York Times will indeed display the Needle tonight. There were some doubts over whether it'd be operational after their tech team went on strike.
Seems like that would amount to crossing a picket line, with the tech team intentionally going on strike before the election. The NYT does not deserve our clicks anyway.
I'll just be glad for the political ads to stop. Claims that Democrats support pedophilia, support locking women in cars until they sleep with them, raise taxes on middle class by $X thousand, want to overturn prop 13 property tax cap. None of it true.
The basis of the pedophilia claim is that California equalized punishment for gay Romeo and Juliet sex to the same as hetero, and of course Republicans are anti gay sex unless they are personally involved in it.
I spent yesterday morning getting some car repairs done and they had one of the local news stations on and I swear I've seen enough of Michelle Steele and Young Kim for the rest of my life. And whoever that guy is that's running against Ken Calvert had some pretty good ads they really make Calvert look like an idiot.
But in the end, return rates D=R (R caught up after trailing early). But I guess the larger request # from Dems means slightly more Ds have to turn in ballots @ poll or vote in person
The Return Rate was ALWAYS going to break towards even. 2020 was an anomaly. 2022 was 88% Returned for Dems & GOP with Others at 85%. The Dem increase isn't as large as expected because the # of high-propensity GOP voters voted "early in-person" in the past two weeks.
Completed mail-in ballots CANNOT be returned to polling places. Those ballots are considered "surrendered" & those voters will get a regular, in-person ballot.
The Dobbs decision, consistent Democratic overperformance in special elections, Trump’s underperformance in Republican primaries, the Harris Campaign’s incredible ground operation with millions of volunteers, Trump’s shocking behavior and ugliness especially these last few weeks, Independents and newly-registered voters (unpolled!) overwhelmingly preferring Harris – IMHO, pollsters have failed to sufficiently take these factors into account.
Here are my predictions, going out on a limb and breaking with the apparent consensus:
PRESIDENCY: Kamala Harris wins at least six of the swing states: MI, WI, PA, NV, GA and NC. Stunningly, she also wins FL and IA. Texas will be surprisingly close. It’s possible that Trump wins AZ.
SENATE: Democratic winners include Gallego AZ, Alsobrooks MD, Slotkin MI, Rosen NV, Casey PA. Baldwin holds in WI, as does Sherrod Brown in OH and Tester in MT. Allred defeats Cruz in TX, and Mucarsel-Powell unseats Scott in FL. Osborn loses a close race against Fischer in NE.
Democrats with caucusing Independents expand control to 52–48.
HOUSE: 226–209, Democratic control. Would not be surprised if we reach 230.
This would be so amazing if anything even close to this came to pass. That being said if this happens then pretty much all the pollsters should just close up shop immediately.
Whats crazy is honestly with polling as broken as it is, we are equally likely to see this as "Trump wins the popular vote, GOP retains the House, and picks up not just WV, MT, and OH, but NV and maybe one or two in the Rust Belt as well".
Like yeah - maybe Selzer is right and the pollsters are herding and the prediction above is right (or maybe even slightly underdoing it - maybe Osborn and Kunce pull it out as well). But also, maybe they arent and not only that, they STILL havent figured out the shy Trump voter phenomenon and hes on track for an easy victory that is called by 10 PM tonight.
I am just going to say this; ground game(GOTV) can boost a campaign around 2-3%; imo the Harris campaign rivals Obama in the GOTV; common denominator? David Plouffe
That’s not entirely true. State GOP parties with robust funding and experience did a ton of heavy lifting for the Trump camp, and those orgs have been badly hollowed out the last three to four years
That being said, no, ground game is not in the end entirely dispositive. But I do think it made a difference in 2020
I feel the need to point out Kamala Harris is not Hillary Clinton, a not well liked candidate whose campaign was kneecapped by a manufactured scandal in the week leading to the election causing the late deciders to swing against her.
I will also point out that Hillary didn't have the highest inflation in decades and a media driven border issue. Hillary was unpopular but didn't have the economic or border issues Harris has.
I don't think it's very meaningful to re-litigate 2016 but we need to bear in mind that Trump was the 'change' candidate in that election where a lot of voters felt relatively at ease to give him a try at the helm, as opposed to Clinton's decades long ingrained image as a secretive, self-serving and careerist politician (fair or not) which was reenforced by the email scandal placed in the spotlight by Comey in the most critical week of the campaign. With the confluence of all these factors, Trump captured the lightening in the bottle and won the Presidency despite the odds. In 2024, Trump is a very known entity with a well established image, a ton of scandals and no late momentum helping him while running against a 'normie' democrat. That's why I feel reasonably comfortable saying 2024 election is played out wholly different from 2016.
It is honestly astonishing how Harris (the sitting vice president) has more or less successfully positioned herself as the change/“let’s move forward” candidate.
Not so astonishing when the very premise of Trump’s Project 2025 and "Make America Great Again" is to go back to some imagined period of greatness. Depending on what people project into that slogan, back either to the 1950s or the 1850s.
Inflation is certainly the primary reason why Trump is in it at all. But frankly, if 20-30% inflation with an otherwise strong economy over a couple of years is enough for Americans to go full fascist - well I think its probably to pull up stakes one way or the other anyway.
I clicked on the link for joining Discord. When I try to register, it just brings me back to the same page to register. I even tried the "already have an account" option. Same.
OK. Just clicked again, and it says that I'm logged in, but there is no way to get to anything past that "you are logged in" page. Will Down ballot post a link to get to their coverage tonight.
Which means I can provide a time honored anecdotal turnout report. My small NH town barely had any parking available, and there even was a line to vote. I can't speak for elsewhere but it's higher than typical turnout here, and I'd be surprised if that wasn't also true of NH in general.
I voted just after my precinct opened at 7:10 a.m. There was a decent-sized line in front of me....but very few behind me. As usual, everybody wanted to vote on their way to work. I suspect for the majority of the day, the poll workers will be sitting there falling asleep.
Annual reminder that mere anecdotal reports of turnout mean absolutely everything!!! It’s time to PANIC and flee for our lives because all the Republican seniors in Florida got up early to vote!!!!
I voted by mail in NJ-03 3 weeks ago. Also, my gf in the PA Philly suburbs is voting today. I also learned R-turned-D NJ State Senator (who narrowly lost reelection after changing) Dawn Addiego is now Burlington County Superintendent of Elections. The county is fully Dem-controlled (a 180 from just a decade ago) and two County board members are up for reelection.
"U.S. Releases Strategic Alcohol Reserve Before Election Night"
WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—Responding to “a situation of utmost urgency,” President Biden released the nation’s Strategic Alcohol Reserve just hours before Election Night.
Immediately following the announcement, the price of vodka dipped below three dollars a gallon and Biden’s approval rating surged to 94 percent.
But even as Americans cheered, experts warned that excessive liquor consumption could cause severe mental impairment akin to that exhibited by undecided voters.
Statistics show that the nation’s alcohol supply has been under acute pressure since November of 2016.
It's E-day!
My guess is Trump picks up Nevada and Arizona, Harris picks of North Carolina and holds the rest.
Republicans flip WV, MT and OH senate seats, with Fischer holding on in the narrowest senate race of the year for a 52R-48D senate.
Dems flip the house relstively narrowly, maybe 225 seats.
No Governorships change hands, with Ayotte holding NH in the only close race.
Why NC for the flip?
North Carolina is polling at the same place as Georgia, so I think the vote in tandem.
I've been arguing for a sort of reverse coattails for a while - just great slate of candidates on Dem side, horrible in GOP side (not just the Gov); and Dems seem better organized, and motivated, than they were during years this 50-50 state slid into GOP supermajority at state leg level
I don't frame it as reverse coattails but I think the 'Republicans in disarray' is a real thing in NC and can benefit the entire slate(including the Presidential)
Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. But kept getting shot down by folks saying "reverse coattails don't work". Which is probably true. But I think/hope there is an state-level enthusiasm gap that favors Ds
Don't let others frame your argument(I learned that long ago my brother)👍
I'd take that result even with Brown losing. I think I have the House 227D-208R. I put very little thought into the House races, I just gave all the races I had at 50-50 to Dems after I saw the Selzer poll.
THE SELZER WAY: Polling Forward
"I give credit to my method for my track record. I call my method, 'Polling Forward'. I want to be in a place where my data can show me what's likely to happen with the future electorate. So I just try to get out of the way of my data, saying this is what's going to happen.
"A lot of other polls, and I will count Emerson among them, are including in the way that they manipulate the data after it comes in things that have happened in the past. So they're taking into account exit polls, they're taking into account what turnout was in past elections.
"I don't make any assumptions like that, so in my way of thinking, it's a cleaner way to forecast future electorate which nobody knows what that's going to be. But we do know that our electorates change in terms of how many people are showing up, what the composition is, and so I don't want to try to predict what that's going to be. I want to be in a place for my data to show me."
– Ann Selzer
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/11/4/2282388/-J-Ann-Selzer-Busts-Emerson-and-others-for-manipulating-their-polls-on-tv
Larry Sabato of the crystal ball moved Iowa01 from lean Republican all the way to lean Democratic based on the Selzer poll, the lean of the district and MMM’s weak primary performance. Something is happening in Iowa.
Yup
Wow!
I can't believe that if that plays out(big IF); how the Republicans hold the House(they can't afford such losses)
Emerson are a JOKE. Redder numbers than Trafalgar (R) in Ohio!! 😂😢
So it begins. Don't think I'll get much sleep where I am on the other side of the world.
While all eyes will be on Georgia when polls close at 7 pm, Indiana and Kentucky could offer some interesting tea leaves when they start reporting at 6 pm. Both of course should be near-instant calls for Trump, but Kenton County (Cincinnati suburbs) and especially Hamilton County (Indianapolis suburbs) could portend broader trends in the suburbs. Kenton shifted seven points left in 2020, while Hamilton shifted 12 points.
I am watching how long it takes to make a call in the Indiana Gov race since those2 states close before everything else
Conversely, rural Indiana - especially the northern part of the state that’s culturally more like Michigan or NW Ohio - is an interesting barometer of where the GOP is running in their core counties compared to 2016/20
Great point👍
For all you masochists out there, looks like the New York Times will indeed display the Needle tonight. There were some doubts over whether it'd be operational after their tech team went on strike.
https://www.nytimes.com/article/election-2024-results-needle.html
I'm boycotting NYT (unfortunately, I think they have the best UI for election results) unless this strike ends.
I'm boycotting them because I refuse to forgive them.
Unless they have a needle for at least the seven states, what’s the point.
Seems like that would amount to crossing a picket line, with the tech team intentionally going on strike before the election. The NYT does not deserve our clicks anyway.
I cancelled my longtime subscription.
I'll just be glad for the political ads to stop. Claims that Democrats support pedophilia, support locking women in cars until they sleep with them, raise taxes on middle class by $X thousand, want to overturn prop 13 property tax cap. None of it true.
The basis of the pedophilia claim is that California equalized punishment for gay Romeo and Juliet sex to the same as hetero, and of course Republicans are anti gay sex unless they are personally involved in it.
I spent yesterday morning getting some car repairs done and they had one of the local news stations on and I swear I've seen enough of Michelle Steele and Young Kim for the rest of my life. And whoever that guy is that's running against Ken Calvert had some pretty good ads they really make Calvert look like an idiot.
Calvert makes himself look like an idiot; Rollins justs points it out for us
Rollins, not Whitesides.
Republicans are antisex publicly(privately, their hypocrisy knows no bounds); it's always projection with the Republicans !
Are these states going to count their mail votes tonight?
Pennsylvania is on a county-by-county basis. Allegheny (Pittsburgh & Suburbs) is opening & processing as I type.
ok that's good, seems like they got everything counted in 2022.
They could have already started; the Republicans blocked it
I was gonna ask if Allegheny got a waiver to do so. Why don’t other counties do it too in that case?
Tuesday 8am's PA Mail-In Ballot Update is in.
362 new requests, D+47. Final request advantage now down to D+485,287
47,746 ballot returns, D+7,435. Overall ballot advantage now D+419,578. Original Firewall has been hit.
Total Requests (FINAL?):
D - 1,201,132 (54.61%)
R - 715,845 (32.55%)
O - 282,382 (12.84%)
Total - 2,199,359
Total Returns:
D - 1,037,783 (86.40% return rate)
R - 618,205 (86.36%)
O - 222,004 (78.62%)
Total - 1,877,992
Officially my last update. 27% of 2020 turnout, 71.79% of 2020 Mail.
321.3k Outstanding: 38k from Philly Dems, 22.6k Allegheny Dems, 14.9k from MontCo Dems.
So do most of these people end up dropping their ballot off?
Most will probably surrender their ballot at their designated polling place & vote in person.
But in the end, return rates D=R (R caught up after trailing early). But I guess the larger request # from Dems means slightly more Ds have to turn in ballots @ poll or vote in person
The Return Rate was ALWAYS going to break towards even. 2020 was an anomaly. 2022 was 88% Returned for Dems & GOP with Others at 85%. The Dem increase isn't as large as expected because the # of high-propensity GOP voters voted "early in-person" in the past two weeks.
Completed mail-in ballots CANNOT be returned to polling places. Those ballots are considered "surrendered" & those voters will get a regular, in-person ballot.
ELECTION PREDICTION
The Dobbs decision, consistent Democratic overperformance in special elections, Trump’s underperformance in Republican primaries, the Harris Campaign’s incredible ground operation with millions of volunteers, Trump’s shocking behavior and ugliness especially these last few weeks, Independents and newly-registered voters (unpolled!) overwhelmingly preferring Harris – IMHO, pollsters have failed to sufficiently take these factors into account.
Here are my predictions, going out on a limb and breaking with the apparent consensus:
PRESIDENCY: Kamala Harris wins at least six of the swing states: MI, WI, PA, NV, GA and NC. Stunningly, she also wins FL and IA. Texas will be surprisingly close. It’s possible that Trump wins AZ.
Harris wins 355–183 with AZ, 344–194 without it.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/zRBxY
SENATE: Democratic winners include Gallego AZ, Alsobrooks MD, Slotkin MI, Rosen NV, Casey PA. Baldwin holds in WI, as does Sherrod Brown in OH and Tester in MT. Allred defeats Cruz in TX, and Mucarsel-Powell unseats Scott in FL. Osborn loses a close race against Fischer in NE.
Democrats with caucusing Independents expand control to 52–48.
HOUSE: 226–209, Democratic control. Would not be surprised if we reach 230.
This would be so amazing if anything even close to this came to pass. That being said if this happens then pretty much all the pollsters should just close up shop immediately.
That is the moat optimistic projection I've seen this year. I'd love e those results, of course.
Me too !! I'm in Florida !!
Even more than DragonFire's yesterday, which only has the swing states going Dem and a 51-49 senate.
Split the difference between you and Mark and im fine with that.
Same here
Whats crazy is honestly with polling as broken as it is, we are equally likely to see this as "Trump wins the popular vote, GOP retains the House, and picks up not just WV, MT, and OH, but NV and maybe one or two in the Rust Belt as well".
Like yeah - maybe Selzer is right and the pollsters are herding and the prediction above is right (or maybe even slightly underdoing it - maybe Osborn and Kunce pull it out as well). But also, maybe they arent and not only that, they STILL havent figured out the shy Trump voter phenomenon and hes on track for an easy victory that is called by 10 PM tonight.
And the people said AMEN.
I am with you !!
Now that is a ballsy prediction
Like Huuuuge. !!
Somebody is feeling good this morning!
And yet I assure you, so far I am only drinking coffee.
That's a pretty bold prediction. If it comes to pass, you get all the babka.
"I have never stood in front of a grave and given a thumbs up with a big smile. But if I live longer than he does, it could happen."
– Anonymous soldier
I am just going to say this; ground game(GOTV) can boost a campaign around 2-3%; imo the Harris campaign rivals Obama in the GOTV; common denominator? David Plouffe
Not only does Harris have a good GOTV operation, Trump has an awful one.
Reports are that the Musk\Kirk ' Gotv' is a clusterf--k; I tend to believe it
I will also state for a fact(from my own activism); that here in Florida it's the best I've personally witnessed since Obama '08
How do you think Florida will vote?
I think we can cut into the margins but it is a tough task; I think the effort to learn from this cycle will bode well for the future
I just back from a long day at 13 precincts and the local\state DECs have done a tremendous job
Also remember, Trump had pretty much no ground game in 16 either. Still think inflation is the factor here and why I think Trump ultimately wins.
That’s not entirely true. State GOP parties with robust funding and experience did a ton of heavy lifting for the Trump camp, and those orgs have been badly hollowed out the last three to four years
That being said, no, ground game is not in the end entirely dispositive. But I do think it made a difference in 2020
That is why I am skeptical we win GA. Kemp's machine is annoyingly competent.
Very fair! It’s the swing state I feel least confident about, even AZ
But it wasn't sufficient to win Georgia last time. Almost...
I feel the need to point out Kamala Harris is not Hillary Clinton, a not well liked candidate whose campaign was kneecapped by a manufactured scandal in the week leading to the election causing the late deciders to swing against her.
I will also point out that Hillary didn't have the highest inflation in decades and a media driven border issue. Hillary was unpopular but didn't have the economic or border issues Harris has.
With regards to Kamala Harris, the key words in your post are "media driven".
I don't think it's very meaningful to re-litigate 2016 but we need to bear in mind that Trump was the 'change' candidate in that election where a lot of voters felt relatively at ease to give him a try at the helm, as opposed to Clinton's decades long ingrained image as a secretive, self-serving and careerist politician (fair or not) which was reenforced by the email scandal placed in the spotlight by Comey in the most critical week of the campaign. With the confluence of all these factors, Trump captured the lightening in the bottle and won the Presidency despite the odds. In 2024, Trump is a very known entity with a well established image, a ton of scandals and no late momentum helping him while running against a 'normie' democrat. That's why I feel reasonably comfortable saying 2024 election is played out wholly different from 2016.
It is honestly astonishing how Harris (the sitting vice president) has more or less successfully positioned herself as the change/“let’s move forward” candidate.
Not so astonishing when the very premise of Trump’s Project 2025 and "Make America Great Again" is to go back to some imagined period of greatness. Depending on what people project into that slogan, back either to the 1950s or the 1850s.
It's a great job by her and her campaign! But it's helped by her being a generation younger and obviously sounder of mind than Trump.
Inflation is certainly the primary reason why Trump is in it at all. But frankly, if 20-30% inflation with an otherwise strong economy over a couple of years is enough for Americans to go full fascist - well I think its probably to pull up stakes one way or the other anyway.
That and the fact that the majority of Americans have decided to pretend that COVID NEVER happened.
He-who-shall-not-be-named presents his own, very-telling, political eulogy.
https://nitter.poast.org/RonFilipkowski/status/1853481676778696766#m
May he soon disappear from view and his memory fade.
I have tried over and over to join Discord, and it's not going through.
I depend on your coverage every election night. Will you be posting anything on the site?
Did you use Downballot as 1 word? That's the mistake I made, when I corrected that, I had no problem
As a Password?
I clicked on the link for joining Discord. When I try to register, it just brings me back to the same page to register. I even tried the "already have an account" option. Same.
Are you trying to join from a network under corporate IT control? If so, try from your personal phone or computer.
OK. Just clicked again, and it says that I'm logged in, but there is no way to get to anything past that "you are logged in" page. Will Down ballot post a link to get to their coverage tonight.
I so miss these guys being on DK.
I just got back from voting.
Which means I can provide a time honored anecdotal turnout report. My small NH town barely had any parking available, and there even was a line to vote. I can't speak for elsewhere but it's higher than typical turnout here, and I'd be surprised if that wasn't also true of NH in general.
I voted just after my precinct opened at 7:10 a.m. There was a decent-sized line in front of me....but very few behind me. As usual, everybody wanted to vote on their way to work. I suspect for the majority of the day, the poll workers will be sitting there falling asleep.
Annual reminder that mere anecdotal reports of turnout mean absolutely everything!!! It’s time to PANIC and flee for our lives because all the Republican seniors in Florida got up early to vote!!!!
How do you know those seniors aren’t voting to preserve their Social Security and Medicare?
Because early returns are showing an unexpected over-performance by Pat Buchanan.
LOL! That’s good news for John McCain.
I voted by mail in NJ-03 3 weeks ago. Also, my gf in the PA Philly suburbs is voting today. I also learned R-turned-D NJ State Senator (who narrowly lost reelection after changing) Dawn Addiego is now Burlington County Superintendent of Elections. The county is fully Dem-controlled (a 180 from just a decade ago) and two County board members are up for reelection.
"U.S. Releases Strategic Alcohol Reserve Before Election Night"
WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—Responding to “a situation of utmost urgency,” President Biden released the nation’s Strategic Alcohol Reserve just hours before Election Night.
Immediately following the announcement, the price of vodka dipped below three dollars a gallon and Biden’s approval rating surged to 94 percent.
But even as Americans cheered, experts warned that excessive liquor consumption could cause severe mental impairment akin to that exhibited by undecided voters.
Statistics show that the nation’s alcohol supply has been under acute pressure since November of 2016.
https://www.borowitzreport.com/p/us-releases-strategic-alcohol-reserve
Sometimes, Andy Borowitz writes things so absurd that they might be true.