Listening now to the great conversation about the Republicans’ alarming power grab in North Carolina. Many thanks!
The Downballot’s upcoming video chat with Aaron Rupar sounds wonderful! I do wish it was available through an ordinary browser link or similar, from a laptop. For those of us, such as me, who lack cell phone coverage where we live or don’t really use apps.
she did fine, outran the top of the ticket by 2 points. Just with the turnout differential that's likely to exist between 24 and 26 she probably wins comfortably.
No Democrat can hold that seat down (at least how it's currently configured) for "decades to come". That area is trending red at a rapid clip. I'll take someone who has won that seat before (i.e. Wild).
Do you think Hochul should run again? My perception from a couple time zones away is that she has been unpopular and just recently bungled congestion pricing further. James didn't exactly outrun Hochul by a ton but the top of the ticket can set the tone and it may have just been a bad year for NY Dems.
I don't think she really bungled congestion pricing, such as it is. She halted it to improve Democratic chances in the house (and I think that worked) and then brought it back with a more palatable number. As to whether she should run again... I don't know. I'd probably prefer James as governor but I'm pretty depressed no matter who our governor is, I think. I didn't realize that James had done so blah against an absolute nobody in 2022 though. While I think that is mostly due to the top of the ticket and the general rightward shift New York has taken, it is a possible warning sign about James' political strength.
Funny, all I ever seem to hear about Hochul is how she botched this or that issue and can't campaign her way out of a paper bag. But that maybe reflects reading too much online commentary that doesn't represent actual voters' views.
If she's about even in approval polling then that's promising, especially if it looks like she'll dominate a Democratic primary--though polling this far out is of limited value given her potential challengers (except maybe James) have the low name recognition factor. Given the (relatively) close statewide results in NY lately I wouldn't assume that someone lesser known and/or well to her left would be an automatic general election winner, particularly if the GOP runs Lawler or someone else with apparent crossover appeal, though national trends in 2026 may help any Democrat. (If she's deeply underwater as the cycle progresses then I'd say it's well worth taking a chance on someone else.)
Don't get me wrong, she's botched a lot of stuff and ran a poor campaign in 2022. Also, who knows if that Approval rating will hold up. But things aren't as dire for her as Mayor Adams, for example.
Redistricting Cases that Could Impact the 2026 Midterms. All but one from the south, of course. That one may have the best chance of success, except for the Louisiana "reverse racial discrimination" case.
Victoria Spartz continues to be an enigma. Her weird waffling on reelection, voting against Ukraine aid despite speaking with a Ukrainian accent, and now she has "de-caucused" herself.
While some Republicans were confused by Spartz's decision on Monday, it allegedly came in response to the House GOP Steering Committee not giving her a sought-after post on the House Ways and Means Committee, sources told Politico.
it's funny to see Republicans set out these grand ambitions with a 3 seat majority in the House. They'll be lucky to get a border and tax bill across the finish line. It took them like 6 tries in 2017 with larger House and Senate majorities just to get the tax package across the finish line.
Spartz is a mentally unstable narcissist who is deeply disliked in her caucus and can't keep staff for more than a day. Watch her do something unhinged like sit out all votes until she gets what she wants. Johnson looks increasingly unlikely to be able to even get re-elected speaker at this point.
Cable news alternatives recommendations? So like many other I’ve turned off cable news after the election for peace but now I’m seeking alternative to the mainstream ones like CNN and MSNBC who decided to bend the knee to FELON 47. I’ve given newsnation, BBC world news, sky news, scripps news, and Reuters a try so far I like BBC the best I guess. Are there any pro democracy live streaming networks I’m unaware of? What’s very disturbing is there are like at least 3-5 maga rightwing wing networks on all the free streaming apps but rarely a single progressive network.
I don't know of a single progressive streaming network, to be honest. There's a lot of progressive-leaning Substack newsletters on this platform, however, which might indicate a sharp difference in preference for how progressives and conservatives like to consume political news/propaganda content that is favorable to their ideological view.
Personally, I far prefer reading my news rather than watching it. That allows me to choose (and support) specific voices that I find reliable, informative and insightful. Moreover, reading allows me to control my tempo, skip ahead, and scan an article to get an overview before immersing myself. (Can’t do that with streamed TV or video news.) And I can read far quicker than the talking heads talk. Also, I have a profound allergy to TV/video ads.
The Guardian keeps getting better and better for overall news. Moreover, in the upper-righthand corner, you can choose your preferred version: American, UK, European, International, Australian.
Heather Cox Richardson, Timothy Snyder, Ruth Ben-Ghiat and Simon Rosenberg are all great, to mention a few. (Subscribe to their free newsletters, support them with subscriptions if you wish.)
In addition to The Downballot and Hopium Chronicles, I highly recommend Josh Marshall’s terrific Talking Points Memo, as well as The American Prospect.
On complex unfolding issues, I generally seek out multiple sources. For instance, Al-Jazeera English had a terrific live blog on Syria (as they did on the Arab Spring years ago). I balanced this with The Times of Israel.
PS. For the Russo-Ukrainian war, I was following the Tweets and reports of a dozen specific on-the-ground experts (including a Russian blogger), before Musk bought the platform and turned it into a real Xitter.
I turned it off long BEFORE the election, with a few exceptions such as Lawrence O'Donnell and Rachel Maddow, who I don't watch regularly but like what they say. Cable news has sucked for many years, especially starting in 2015 when seemingly every time Trump opened his mouth the networks (CNN especially) gave him "BREAKING NEWS!" status and covered his speeches and rallies live and in full. (Not that it was great before that; the incessant anti-Clinton moralizing and slobbering over George W. Bush were abominable.)
I mostly use Substacks such as Simon Rosenberg and....uh....The Downballot, some podcasts like Pod Save America, and a few other sources such as the American Prospect. And then there's still Daily Kos, which I've visited far less since DKE became the Downballot but Markos and some others still have useful insights.
I'd also advocate for supporting your local newspaper, if you still have one. For me that happens to be the Washington Post, which, Bezos' fuckery aside, still has a lot of credible reporters and opinion columnists. And the local, cultural, and other non-political content still justifies the subscription price IMO, though I might not ever have subscribed if I were in some other metro area.
"The early December survey of 630 registered voters was released Monday. In the results, 20% of respondents told pollster Magellan Strategies that they probably or definitely would vote for Neguse, the fourth-ranking Democrat in the U.S. House, if the June 2026 Democratic primary was held now. That was ahead of 16% support for Secretary of State Jena Griswold; 11% for Ken Salazar, a longtime Colorado politico who now serves as the U.S. ambassador to Mexico; and 8% for Attorney General Phil Weiser.
Thirty-seven percent of polls respondents said they were undecided, and 8% said they planned to support a candidate other than the four specifically posed."
I heard one report on it and haven't heard anything since but admittedly aside from public radio during the commute and the Denver Post I don't get too much local media. My guess is it'll be forgotten soon if it isn't already since nothing was actually breached but opponents can try to drudge it up later.
Crow might run too; he always overperforms a lot. Maybe even Frisch? His congressional runs raised his profile greatly and he’ll have a base in the rurals against a split metro vote.
If he really does run for the seat we owe him a huge debt of gratitude, he'd be committing to run brutal races in back-to-back-to-back cycles as probably the only Dem who could win them throughout the course of his 70s. Unless he wins both 26 and 28 he should get his choice of cabinet posts outside the big 3 in 2029 if he wants it.
If he takes a go at it, Brown should be lauded for the runs whether or not he succeeds.
But we need to stop seeing high profile appointments as consolation prizes for those who tried their best but didn't quite make it. Especially considering he would turn 80 before the end of a four year cabinet term. Politics is a knife fight right now for the future our country and planet. We do not have the benefit of being able to turn major positions into rewards for being someone that we like.
All of us might be a lot happier today in an alternative reality where Biden didn't pick Garland as AG but instead went with a more aggressive person who didn't have a high profile failure to advance in their recent history.
I don't think the future of the country will depend on whether Sherrod Brown is HHS secretary instead of a random state health commissioner or another statewide elected. It's not a consolation prize, he's otherwise qualified and taking one for the team should demonstrate he's a team player.
Agreed on Garland but I think he was a reasonable pick even absent the 2016 fuckery. Opened up a seat on the DC Circuit and he's one of the foremost legal minds of his generation. It's easy to look back on the pick as a mistake but given that the entire media is willing to drag Biden back and forth over the coals for pardoning his son, they would've had a full meltdown before he even took office if Biden had put a partisan in there to prosecute Trump.
My choice then was Doug Jones. We needed an Attorney General who pursued the insurrectionists, their funders and backers, dealt with domestic threats and dark money subversion of democracy far more aggressively – and with much more haste – than Merrick Garland did. I think Doug Jones was better prepared to do that.
In retrospect, I think Jack Smith would also have made an excellent Attorney General.
Brazil is an excellent example of how to quickly deal with insurrectionists and coup makers.
Smith should be a top contender for either Attorney General, another Justice Department position, or a judgeship in the next Democratic administration. I'd say the same of Doug Jones but for the fact he turns 75 in 2029.
This is a bigger rant that I don't feel like making today, maybe I won't ever, but my opinion of Biden's presidency is very conflicting with itself. He did an incredible job on the legislative front and getting stuff done with razor thin margins in congress, with our caucuses decently far apart on ideology. Arguably the best at it in my lifetime.
He also horrifically misread the moment that our democracy and country was in and picked people that would slow walk so many monumentally important things. Garland is one of the more egregious examples. January 6 was an attempt to overturn our democracy and ignore the outcome of an election. A swift and effective response should have been priority number one, two, and three for the Justice department. Garland fumbled this, hard, and the damage to our country and systems will last for generations.
AOC has lost the vote for Oversight ranking member seat to Connelly, a 74 year old with cancer, on the committee where messaging matters most.
"Valuing seniority over political and messaging chops is exactly how Democrats got into this mess in the first place"
Angie Craig has won against two senior Dems including ailing member David Scott to take over the AG ranking member seat. This gives Dems their first Midwestern leadership member.
For whatever reason, Pelosi worked hard to swing votes for Gerry Connelly. Seems clear that she does not want AOC to rise into greater prominence, at least not yet.
I suspect it's less about AOC and more about Connolly. Pelosi has long been big on favoring seniority, and Connolly is a very standard establishment-oriented dem.
It's a clear mistake and a reminder of the kinds of mistakes dem officials keep making over and over again, but I don't think this one is made out of animosity towards AOC rather than favoritism towards Connolly.
I have to say - I've turned into a pretty big AOC fan. We decidedly do NOT come from the same wings of the party, but she has clearly taken her job very seriously and has worked to turn herself from a showhorse into a workhorse and someone who understands how to get stuff done. I'd like to see her in leadership at some point.
AOC is the only person in The Squad that I really like. I can gladly do without Jamaal Bowman, Cori Bush, Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar. Don’t know enough to have an opinion about Pressley.
But, yeah, all too many Squad members were/are showhorses. Ocasio-Cortez is genuinely interested in doing the work. Time and again she has impressed me.
Pressley, like AOC, seems solidly credible, and a potential statewide contender.
Of the others, Bush and Bowman are of course on their way out; Omar effectively discredited herself early on to many, and while she's been quieter or more careful about what she says lately she's probably ruined any chances for advancement; and it's hard to discuss Tlaib here given her identification with The Forbidden Issue (I understand her stance especially given her personal heritage, but her loud showboating really isn't needed or helpful)
Seems to me that if you've missed a certain amount of votes based on a ongoing health issue, that you should consider whether a leadership position is a good investment of your time and service to the party and America. IIRC, Connelly has missed a lot of time. He need not resign from Congress, but the party needs strong ranking member positions.
I agree with your point generally but I think Pelosi and Connelly may know more about his health situation than we do and if he's on the mend and able to commit to a full time schedule in the next month or two it's probably fine. I'd have voted for AOC but there's nothing wrong with Connelly.
Is Craig the first openly-LGBTQIA+ party leader on a Congressional committee? I don't recall there ever being one previously.
Also, it's astounding that a soon-to-be third-term House member who has virtually zero ties to the Democratic establishment/leadership got over 80 votes for a committee ranking member post. AOC has such a deep cult of personality that even a lot of other progressives don't have.
I wonder if there's any chance we can convince Gwen Graham to run for either the senate seat or the governorship. She and Danielle Levine Cava should be at the top of the list. I'd love to see Cava run for the Senate against a random white guy, may be able to make significant inroads in Miami while the suburbs will swing against the GOP because of Trump.
I wonder if Gwen Graham would have won in 2018 if nominated, or been reelected in 2022. I can't help but think that nominating Andrew Gillum was such an own-goal, and that's before we get to the messes he's been in since.
Of course it could be that Florida is too far gone by now for any Dem to win barring epic GOP fuckups or division, but we'll never know if we don't try.
Depends on how she handled COVID I guess; a not-insubstantial part of the post-2018 shift in FL was “COVID refugees” from states with stronger distancing/vax requirements even as early as mid-2020. Sans RDS, a lot of those migrants may have gone elsewhere to Tennessee or Texas or wherever. Hell, aggressive anti-public health posturing may not have been as popular a stance without RDS’ demagogy
That said, a lot of that trend was still already baked in with or without COVID
Right. I suspect she'd have lost re-election in 2022 if she was deemed too rigid with COVID protocols and the refugees never came. And I suspect she'd have lost re-election in 2022 if she was relaxed with COVID protocols and the refugees came....because the refugees are very conservative Republicans.
Yup, Florida is becoming increasingly full of people who literally don't give even the tiniest shit about how their actions affect anyone other than themselves. It should change its motto from the Sunshine State to the Selfish State.
I hate to personally attack an entire state, but many of Florida's migrants do seem unusually self-centered, ranging from seniors who want less spending on anything for anyone under 65, to those taking advantage of the "homestead exemption" to avoid taxes (watch as their home insurance costs explode), to the Cubans who think they're forever entitled to dictate foreign policy decades after the end of the Cold War.
Florida seems likely to go the road of Tennessee. Gwen Graham running would be the equivalent of Phil Bredesen's attempted comeback and would probably end just as badly.
Lina Khan, Chair of the FTC, is keenly appreciated by many Republicans, including Josh Hawley and Matt Gaetz. If Trump invites her to continue (a long-shot, admittedly), then I firmly believe Khan should stay on!
Some interesting results 16 years apart to consider in Imperial County, CA (very heavily Hispanic).
2008: Prop 8 won by 5 and won in Imperial by 40. This put Imperial 35 points to the right of the state as a whole on a key cultural issue. Despite this, Obama won Imperial by 21, the same as his statewide margin, so that Imperial was exactly in line with the state on the top line of the ballot. This wasn't a huge fluke at the time - Imperial was just 4 points to the right of the state in 2004 and 2 points to the right of it in 2000.
2024: Prop 8 lost by 25 but still won in Imperial by 2. This puts Imperial 27 points to the right of the state as a whole. But this time, Imperial was *also* 21 points to the right of the state on the top line of the ballot, after being just 6 points to its right in 2020.
TL:DR: culturally conservative Hispanic voters voted for the culturally conservative candidate this election. Ideological polarization in action. Unfortunately, it's likely to continue. Silver lining is that Hispanic voters are not monolithically conservative and most of the conservative ones seem to have abandoned us already.
The "most of the conservative ones have abandoned us already" line sounds very familiar.....and almost never right. Trends in motion rarely reverse course until major realignments. It wouldn't surprise me a bit if Imperial County and the Rio Grande Valley follow the track of rural Arkansas. Ten years from now, Republican candidates will probably be winning Imperial County with 70% of the vote.
I highly doubt that. A 70% Republican Imperial County would require Republicans to get 60% of the non-Cuban Hispanic vote, and if that happens, California instantly becomes a swing state. And I don't think even the least reality-tethered Republicans are expecting that to happen.
This is all (whether hispanic or not) related to the "Fuck You Boys" category - I forget whose polling/focus group stuff used that category.
My impression is that they don't WANT to vote for us, and we are better served seeking coalition expansion elsewhere. I'm just not sure where - or where our next batch of leakage/triage worry comes from.
We need less ideology (of centre or quasi-Marxist varietal) and more aggressive game theory.
It would seem to me that the Imperial County community would have to become significantly more culturally conservative in order for that to happen. This isn't impossible but would require a fairly large values shift and is unlikely to happen quickly.
Hopefully, just a "not yet" for moving AOC up the ladder. She's an immense political talent, and more disciplined that Bernie, etc. We do need to keep her front and center.
You missed the obvious Gov-LG primary: Hugh Carey, Governor of NYS from 1975-83, was primaried by his LG, Mary Ann Krupsak, in 1978.
Also, the comment that Pelosi is just looking out for her buddy Connelly--nonsense. She has it in for AOC and decided to use whatever capital she has left to stick it to her.
Listening now to the great conversation about the Republicans’ alarming power grab in North Carolina. Many thanks!
The Downballot’s upcoming video chat with Aaron Rupar sounds wonderful! I do wish it was available through an ordinary browser link or similar, from a laptop. For those of us, such as me, who lack cell phone coverage where we live or don’t really use apps.
Perhaps the video can be made available later?
Good to see Wild's thinking about a rematch. Hochul should pack it in.
I personally do not think Wild should run again. Her performance was not that great since Trump only won PA-07 by 3 points.
2026 would be the perfect time to pass the torch to a new fresh face.
she did fine, outran the top of the ticket by 2 points. Just with the turnout differential that's likely to exist between 24 and 26 she probably wins comfortably.
True, but Dems don’t need her to win the seat back.
yeah but probably better than a random untested candidate who could have baggage that comes out in October
Susan Wild will be 69 in 2026. Why should we go for her rather than someone who can hold down the seat for decades to come?
For similar reason I don't think Dems should go for Cartwright again either.
No Democrat can hold that seat down (at least how it's currently configured) for "decades to come". That area is trending red at a rapid clip. I'll take someone who has won that seat before (i.e. Wild).
Hochul is back up to around break-even in her approval numbers. I doubt Delgado will run. I wouldn't put money on Torres to win.
Letita James should run, and I think she would beat Hochul in a one-on-one matchup.
Yeah, I would expect James to win that one and, while my hopes are generally low, I would think she'd be a better governor.
Do you think Hochul should run again? My perception from a couple time zones away is that she has been unpopular and just recently bungled congestion pricing further. James didn't exactly outrun Hochul by a ton but the top of the ticket can set the tone and it may have just been a bad year for NY Dems.
I don't think she really bungled congestion pricing, such as it is. She halted it to improve Democratic chances in the house (and I think that worked) and then brought it back with a more palatable number. As to whether she should run again... I don't know. I'd probably prefer James as governor but I'm pretty depressed no matter who our governor is, I think. I didn't realize that James had done so blah against an absolute nobody in 2022 though. While I think that is mostly due to the top of the ticket and the general rightward shift New York has taken, it is a possible warning sign about James' political strength.
If she isn't in a gulag by 2026.
Funny, all I ever seem to hear about Hochul is how she botched this or that issue and can't campaign her way out of a paper bag. But that maybe reflects reading too much online commentary that doesn't represent actual voters' views.
If she's about even in approval polling then that's promising, especially if it looks like she'll dominate a Democratic primary--though polling this far out is of limited value given her potential challengers (except maybe James) have the low name recognition factor. Given the (relatively) close statewide results in NY lately I wouldn't assume that someone lesser known and/or well to her left would be an automatic general election winner, particularly if the GOP runs Lawler or someone else with apparent crossover appeal, though national trends in 2026 may help any Democrat. (If she's deeply underwater as the cycle progresses then I'd say it's well worth taking a chance on someone else.)
Don't get me wrong, she's botched a lot of stuff and ran a poor campaign in 2022. Also, who knows if that Approval rating will hold up. But things aren't as dire for her as Mayor Adams, for example.
Which poll is that from?
https://scri.siena.edu/2024/12/10/hochul-job-approval-favorability-ratings-up-a-little-remain-negative-only-33-of-voters-would-re-elect-hochul-57-want-someone-else/
However, while she is only down 3% on job approval, she's down 10% on favorability and her re-elect numbers are bad.
Redistricting Cases that Could Impact the 2026 Midterms. All but one from the south, of course. That one may have the best chance of success, except for the Louisiana "reverse racial discrimination" case.
https://www.democracydocket.com/analysis/redistricting-cases-that-could-impact-the-2026-midterms/
Victoria Spartz continues to be an enigma. Her weird waffling on reelection, voting against Ukraine aid despite speaking with a Ukrainian accent, and now she has "de-caucused" herself.
While some Republicans were confused by Spartz's decision on Monday, it allegedly came in response to the House GOP Steering Committee not giving her a sought-after post on the House Ways and Means Committee, sources told Politico.
https://www.newsweek.com/republican-house-majority-victoria-spartz-2002016
She's set on eviscerating social security and Medicare and is pissed at leadership for not giving her a choice spot to try and do it.
it's funny to see Republicans set out these grand ambitions with a 3 seat majority in the House. They'll be lucky to get a border and tax bill across the finish line. It took them like 6 tries in 2017 with larger House and Senate majorities just to get the tax package across the finish line.
Spartz is a mentally unstable narcissist who is deeply disliked in her caucus and can't keep staff for more than a day. Watch her do something unhinged like sit out all votes until she gets what she wants. Johnson looks increasingly unlikely to be able to even get re-elected speaker at this point.
If Victoria Spartz does that, I shall consider sending her some very good chocolate cake!
Cable news alternatives recommendations? So like many other I’ve turned off cable news after the election for peace but now I’m seeking alternative to the mainstream ones like CNN and MSNBC who decided to bend the knee to FELON 47. I’ve given newsnation, BBC world news, sky news, scripps news, and Reuters a try so far I like BBC the best I guess. Are there any pro democracy live streaming networks I’m unaware of? What’s very disturbing is there are like at least 3-5 maga rightwing wing networks on all the free streaming apps but rarely a single progressive network.
I don't know of a single progressive streaming network, to be honest. There's a lot of progressive-leaning Substack newsletters on this platform, however, which might indicate a sharp difference in preference for how progressives and conservatives like to consume political news/propaganda content that is favorable to their ideological view.
Personally, I far prefer reading my news rather than watching it. That allows me to choose (and support) specific voices that I find reliable, informative and insightful. Moreover, reading allows me to control my tempo, skip ahead, and scan an article to get an overview before immersing myself. (Can’t do that with streamed TV or video news.) And I can read far quicker than the talking heads talk. Also, I have a profound allergy to TV/video ads.
The Guardian keeps getting better and better for overall news. Moreover, in the upper-righthand corner, you can choose your preferred version: American, UK, European, International, Australian.
Heather Cox Richardson, Timothy Snyder, Ruth Ben-Ghiat and Simon Rosenberg are all great, to mention a few. (Subscribe to their free newsletters, support them with subscriptions if you wish.)
In addition to The Downballot and Hopium Chronicles, I highly recommend Josh Marshall’s terrific Talking Points Memo, as well as The American Prospect.
On complex unfolding issues, I generally seek out multiple sources. For instance, Al-Jazeera English had a terrific live blog on Syria (as they did on the Arab Spring years ago). I balanced this with The Times of Israel.
PS. For the Russo-Ukrainian war, I was following the Tweets and reports of a dozen specific on-the-ground experts (including a Russian blogger), before Musk bought the platform and turned it into a real Xitter.
Agreed - my go to sources are the NY Times and, for longform stuff, The Atlantic.
I turned it off long BEFORE the election, with a few exceptions such as Lawrence O'Donnell and Rachel Maddow, who I don't watch regularly but like what they say. Cable news has sucked for many years, especially starting in 2015 when seemingly every time Trump opened his mouth the networks (CNN especially) gave him "BREAKING NEWS!" status and covered his speeches and rallies live and in full. (Not that it was great before that; the incessant anti-Clinton moralizing and slobbering over George W. Bush were abominable.)
I mostly use Substacks such as Simon Rosenberg and....uh....The Downballot, some podcasts like Pod Save America, and a few other sources such as the American Prospect. And then there's still Daily Kos, which I've visited far less since DKE became the Downballot but Markos and some others still have useful insights.
I'd also advocate for supporting your local newspaper, if you still have one. For me that happens to be the Washington Post, which, Bezos' fuckery aside, still has a lot of credible reporters and opinion columnists. And the local, cultural, and other non-political content still justifies the subscription price IMO, though I might not ever have subscribed if I were in some other metro area.
CO-Gov:
"The early December survey of 630 registered voters was released Monday. In the results, 20% of respondents told pollster Magellan Strategies that they probably or definitely would vote for Neguse, the fourth-ranking Democrat in the U.S. House, if the June 2026 Democratic primary was held now. That was ahead of 16% support for Secretary of State Jena Griswold; 11% for Ken Salazar, a longtime Colorado politico who now serves as the U.S. ambassador to Mexico; and 8% for Attorney General Phil Weiser.
Thirty-seven percent of polls respondents said they were undecided, and 8% said they planned to support a candidate other than the four specifically posed."
https://www.denverpost.com/2024/12/17/colorado-governor-joe-neguse-jena-griswold-ken-salazar-phil-weiser/
Has Griswold’s sloppy voter data leak scandal hurt her standing at all here?
I’d be fine with any of the three save Salazar. Of course I really wish Hick was retiring so Neguse or Polis could run for that seat
I heard one report on it and haven't heard anything since but admittedly aside from public radio during the commute and the Denver Post I don't get too much local media. My guess is it'll be forgotten soon if it isn't already since nothing was actually breached but opponents can try to drudge it up later.
Crow might run too; he always overperforms a lot. Maybe even Frisch? His congressional runs raised his profile greatly and he’ll have a base in the rurals against a split metro vote.
They should have added Crow to the poll for sure.
How’d I forget about Crow! He’s great
I also read the Westword but while it does have a political story here and there more of a local culture/arts paper than local news.
Sherrod Brown widely touting his 4pm e. Speech today as his "final speech of this term." Signaling a 2026 run for office.
If he really does run for the seat we owe him a huge debt of gratitude, he'd be committing to run brutal races in back-to-back-to-back cycles as probably the only Dem who could win them throughout the course of his 70s. Unless he wins both 26 and 28 he should get his choice of cabinet posts outside the big 3 in 2029 if he wants it.
If he takes a go at it, Brown should be lauded for the runs whether or not he succeeds.
But we need to stop seeing high profile appointments as consolation prizes for those who tried their best but didn't quite make it. Especially considering he would turn 80 before the end of a four year cabinet term. Politics is a knife fight right now for the future our country and planet. We do not have the benefit of being able to turn major positions into rewards for being someone that we like.
All of us might be a lot happier today in an alternative reality where Biden didn't pick Garland as AG but instead went with a more aggressive person who didn't have a high profile failure to advance in their recent history.
I don't think the future of the country will depend on whether Sherrod Brown is HHS secretary instead of a random state health commissioner or another statewide elected. It's not a consolation prize, he's otherwise qualified and taking one for the team should demonstrate he's a team player.
Agreed on Garland but I think he was a reasonable pick even absent the 2016 fuckery. Opened up a seat on the DC Circuit and he's one of the foremost legal minds of his generation. It's easy to look back on the pick as a mistake but given that the entire media is willing to drag Biden back and forth over the coals for pardoning his son, they would've had a full meltdown before he even took office if Biden had put a partisan in there to prosecute Trump.
My choice then was Doug Jones. We needed an Attorney General who pursued the insurrectionists, their funders and backers, dealt with domestic threats and dark money subversion of democracy far more aggressively – and with much more haste – than Merrick Garland did. I think Doug Jones was better prepared to do that.
In retrospect, I think Jack Smith would also have made an excellent Attorney General.
Brazil is an excellent example of how to quickly deal with insurrectionists and coup makers.
Smith should be a top contender for either Attorney General, another Justice Department position, or a judgeship in the next Democratic administration. I'd say the same of Doug Jones but for the fact he turns 75 in 2029.
Jones or Smith likely would have been great.
This is a bigger rant that I don't feel like making today, maybe I won't ever, but my opinion of Biden's presidency is very conflicting with itself. He did an incredible job on the legislative front and getting stuff done with razor thin margins in congress, with our caucuses decently far apart on ideology. Arguably the best at it in my lifetime.
He also horrifically misread the moment that our democracy and country was in and picked people that would slow walk so many monumentally important things. Garland is one of the more egregious examples. January 6 was an attempt to overturn our democracy and ignore the outcome of an election. A swift and effective response should have been priority number one, two, and three for the Justice department. Garland fumbled this, hard, and the damage to our country and systems will last for generations.
AOC has lost the vote for Oversight ranking member seat to Connelly, a 74 year old with cancer, on the committee where messaging matters most.
"Valuing seniority over political and messaging chops is exactly how Democrats got into this mess in the first place"
Angie Craig has won against two senior Dems including ailing member David Scott to take over the AG ranking member seat. This gives Dems their first Midwestern leadership member.
For whatever reason, Pelosi worked hard to swing votes for Gerry Connelly. Seems clear that she does not want AOC to rise into greater prominence, at least not yet.
I suspect it's less about AOC and more about Connolly. Pelosi has long been big on favoring seniority, and Connolly is a very standard establishment-oriented dem.
It's a clear mistake and a reminder of the kinds of mistakes dem officials keep making over and over again, but I don't think this one is made out of animosity towards AOC rather than favoritism towards Connolly.
I have to say - I've turned into a pretty big AOC fan. We decidedly do NOT come from the same wings of the party, but she has clearly taken her job very seriously and has worked to turn herself from a showhorse into a workhorse and someone who understands how to get stuff done. I'd like to see her in leadership at some point.
Her and Ayanna Presley both have shown a lot of growth and savvy in their evolution since 2018 into workhorse progressive legislators
AOC is the only person in The Squad that I really like. I can gladly do without Jamaal Bowman, Cori Bush, Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar. Don’t know enough to have an opinion about Pressley.
But, yeah, all too many Squad members were/are showhorses. Ocasio-Cortez is genuinely interested in doing the work. Time and again she has impressed me.
Pressley, like AOC, seems solidly credible, and a potential statewide contender.
Of the others, Bush and Bowman are of course on their way out; Omar effectively discredited herself early on to many, and while she's been quieter or more careful about what she says lately she's probably ruined any chances for advancement; and it's hard to discuss Tlaib here given her identification with The Forbidden Issue (I understand her stance especially given her personal heritage, but her loud showboating really isn't needed or helpful)
Isn't Pressley the least radical/most moderate member of the Squad? Can you think of anything particularly controversial she's said?
Seems to me that if you've missed a certain amount of votes based on a ongoing health issue, that you should consider whether a leadership position is a good investment of your time and service to the party and America. IIRC, Connelly has missed a lot of time. He need not resign from Congress, but the party needs strong ranking member positions.
I agree with your point generally but I think Pelosi and Connelly may know more about his health situation than we do and if he's on the mend and able to commit to a full time schedule in the next month or two it's probably fine. I'd have voted for AOC but there's nothing wrong with Connelly.
Very glad to hear about the geographic diversity.
Is Craig the first openly-LGBTQIA+ party leader on a Congressional committee? I don't recall there ever being one previously.
Also, it's astounding that a soon-to-be third-term House member who has virtually zero ties to the Democratic establishment/leadership got over 80 votes for a committee ranking member post. AOC has such a deep cult of personality that even a lot of other progressives don't have.
4th term.
I stand corrected.
Moscowitz staying in congress https://x.com/JaredEMoskowitz/status/1869076798069469199
Figured this would be the outcome. Love him or hate him, Moskowitz is not dumb
I wonder if there's any chance we can convince Gwen Graham to run for either the senate seat or the governorship. She and Danielle Levine Cava should be at the top of the list. I'd love to see Cava run for the Senate against a random white guy, may be able to make significant inroads in Miami while the suburbs will swing against the GOP because of Trump.
I wonder if Gwen Graham would have won in 2018 if nominated, or been reelected in 2022. I can't help but think that nominating Andrew Gillum was such an own-goal, and that's before we get to the messes he's been in since.
Of course it could be that Florida is too far gone by now for any Dem to win barring epic GOP fuckups or division, but we'll never know if we don't try.
Yes she would've won, but re-election would've been iffy
incumbent governors tend to do fine even in hostile environments.
Depends on how she handled COVID I guess; a not-insubstantial part of the post-2018 shift in FL was “COVID refugees” from states with stronger distancing/vax requirements even as early as mid-2020. Sans RDS, a lot of those migrants may have gone elsewhere to Tennessee or Texas or wherever. Hell, aggressive anti-public health posturing may not have been as popular a stance without RDS’ demagogy
That said, a lot of that trend was still already baked in with or without COVID
Right. I suspect she'd have lost re-election in 2022 if she was deemed too rigid with COVID protocols and the refugees never came. And I suspect she'd have lost re-election in 2022 if she was relaxed with COVID protocols and the refugees came....because the refugees are very conservative Republicans.
Yup, Florida is becoming increasingly full of people who literally don't give even the tiniest shit about how their actions affect anyone other than themselves. It should change its motto from the Sunshine State to the Selfish State.
I hate to personally attack an entire state, but many of Florida's migrants do seem unusually self-centered, ranging from seniors who want less spending on anything for anyone under 65, to those taking advantage of the "homestead exemption" to avoid taxes (watch as their home insurance costs explode), to the Cubans who think they're forever entitled to dictate foreign policy decades after the end of the Cold War.
Florida seems likely to go the road of Tennessee. Gwen Graham running would be the equivalent of Phil Bredesen's attempted comeback and would probably end just as badly.
It's about 20 points less red than Tennessee and he lost by 10 in a senate race.
Hence my qualifier "seems likely to go the road of Tennessee".
Not sure how to feel about a Dem who "appreciates" being considered for this incoming regime.
Lina Khan, Chair of the FTC, is keenly appreciated by many Republicans, including Josh Hawley and Matt Gaetz. If Trump invites her to continue (a long-shot, admittedly), then I firmly believe Khan should stay on!
There’s a better chance of hell freezing over.
Some interesting results 16 years apart to consider in Imperial County, CA (very heavily Hispanic).
2008: Prop 8 won by 5 and won in Imperial by 40. This put Imperial 35 points to the right of the state as a whole on a key cultural issue. Despite this, Obama won Imperial by 21, the same as his statewide margin, so that Imperial was exactly in line with the state on the top line of the ballot. This wasn't a huge fluke at the time - Imperial was just 4 points to the right of the state in 2004 and 2 points to the right of it in 2000.
2024: Prop 8 lost by 25 but still won in Imperial by 2. This puts Imperial 27 points to the right of the state as a whole. But this time, Imperial was *also* 21 points to the right of the state on the top line of the ballot, after being just 6 points to its right in 2020.
TL:DR: culturally conservative Hispanic voters voted for the culturally conservative candidate this election. Ideological polarization in action. Unfortunately, it's likely to continue. Silver lining is that Hispanic voters are not monolithically conservative and most of the conservative ones seem to have abandoned us already.
The "most of the conservative ones have abandoned us already" line sounds very familiar.....and almost never right. Trends in motion rarely reverse course until major realignments. It wouldn't surprise me a bit if Imperial County and the Rio Grande Valley follow the track of rural Arkansas. Ten years from now, Republican candidates will probably be winning Imperial County with 70% of the vote.
I highly doubt that. A 70% Republican Imperial County would require Republicans to get 60% of the non-Cuban Hispanic vote, and if that happens, California instantly becomes a swing state. And I don't think even the least reality-tethered Republicans are expecting that to happen.
This is all (whether hispanic or not) related to the "Fuck You Boys" category - I forget whose polling/focus group stuff used that category.
My impression is that they don't WANT to vote for us, and we are better served seeking coalition expansion elsewhere. I'm just not sure where - or where our next batch of leakage/triage worry comes from.
We need less ideology (of centre or quasi-Marxist varietal) and more aggressive game theory.
It would seem to me that the Imperial County community would have to become significantly more culturally conservative in order for that to happen. This isn't impossible but would require a fairly large values shift and is unlikely to happen quickly.
AOC handles losing better than Victoria Spartz:
https://www.instagram.com/p/DDsIvotTpkX/?igsh=MTVndTBqY2NnYzdsdA==
Hopefully, just a "not yet" for moving AOC up the ladder. She's an immense political talent, and more disciplined that Bernie, etc. We do need to keep her front and center.
You missed the obvious Gov-LG primary: Hugh Carey, Governor of NYS from 1975-83, was primaried by his LG, Mary Ann Krupsak, in 1978.
Also, the comment that Pelosi is just looking out for her buddy Connelly--nonsense. She has it in for AOC and decided to use whatever capital she has left to stick it to her.