Morning Digest: Las Vegas could elect its first Democratic mayor in more than a decade

Nevada Republicans face a familiar problem: a candidate who isn't on the airwaves

Former Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley, candidate for mayor of Las Vegas (at right) (credit: Shelley Berkley campaign)

Leading Off

Las Vegas, NV Mayor

Former Rep. Shelley Berkley, who is campaigning to become Las Vegas' first Democratic mayor in well over a decade, has the airwaves to herself less than a month before the start of early voting.

Berkley, according to data from AdImpact first reported by the Nevada Independent, has reserved $445,000 in ad time, while Republican City Councilwoman Victoria Seaman has yet to book anything.

The two candidates are competing in the officially nonpartisan race to succeed the termed-out incumbent, three-term Mayor Carolyn Goodman, as leader of Nevada's largest city. The winner will also be the first person outside the Goodman family to run Sin City since the current mayor's husband, Oscar Goodman, was elected in 1999. 

Berkley is waging her first campaign since her 2012 loss to then-Sen. Dean Heller, and her opening commercial references an issue that she blamed for that narrow defeat.

The spot praises Berkely for her role in keeping a local kidney transplant center open, with one man declaring, "She saved all of us, not just me, a lot of us 14 years ago." Twelve years ago, though, it was Republicans who were airing ads accusing Berkley of intervening because her husband's practice ran the kidney program.

The House Ethics Committee began probing the matter ahead of the election, but its inquiry remained open when Heller defeated Berkley in a 46-45 squeaker. The next month, the committee ruled that, while the outgoing congresswoman had broken ethics rules, she hadn't used her position to give out "special favors or privileges" to her spouse.

"I can hold my head up high—I did the right thing and I believe the committee recognized that too," Berkley told the Las Vegas Sun. "It just cost me an election to the Senate."

If Seaman hopes to air TV ads attacking Berkley on this or any other issue, though, she's running out of time to make a move, since the cost of running ads in the Silver State is only going up because of the ultra-expensive presidential and U.S. Senate races. This issue, as we detailed in a recent Digest, is also plaguing the three GOP challengers campaigning for U.S. House seats in the Las Vegas area.

The time crunch is especially acute since about 80% of voters in the state cast ballots before Election Day. Nevada election officials will mail out ballots to all registered voters on Oct. 16, while in-person early voting begins three days later. 

Berkley and Seaman are competing to lead a city that, according to VEST data from Dave's Redistricting App, favored Joe Biden 54-44 in 2020. Vegas hasn't had a Republican mayor since its longest-serving leader, Oran Gragson, left office in 1975—future Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid lost the race to replace him to fellow Democrat William Briare—though Democrats have also been out of power for some time.

Oscar Goodman was elected as a Democrat in 1999, but he announced a decade later that he was abandoning his party affiliation ahead of a possible 2010 independent campaign for governor. But while Goodman stayed out of that race, which Republican Brian Sandoval eventually won, he never returned to the Democratic fold.

Carolyn Goodman, who also identified as an independent, went on to decisively beat Democrat Chris Giunchigliani in the 2011 race to succeed Goodman's termed-out spouse. Goodman easily claimed her third final term in 2019, though her tenure was extended when the state's Democratic-run legislature passed a law requiring all Nevada municipalities to hold local elections in even-numbered years.

The Downballot

Will Mark Robinson's implosion engulf the GOP?

Just how big will Mark Robinson's blast radius grow? We're surveying the damage on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, and it's looking pretty gnarly for the North Carolina GOP. Most Republicans have found increasingly creative ways of distancing themselves from their fatally flawed gubernatorial nominee, but the sheer number of tossup races on the ballot means that any downturn in enthusiasm could have profound effects in the Tar Heel State.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also nerd out with Kirk Bado, editor of the National Journal Hotline, about this year's elections. Bado gives us a sneak preview of his new power rankings for Congress, which rank the top seats in both chambers in order of their likelihood of flipping. He also discusses a major new investigation into the dearth of House polling and highlights a few on-the-bubble races he's keeping an eye on.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. To make sure you never miss an episode, just click the button below:

House

CA-09

The NRCC is launching its first attack ads in Northern California's Stockton-based 9th District, backed by a $1 million buy targeting Democratic Rep. Josh Harder, reports the National Journal's James Downs.

The NRCC had long touted its candidate, Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, since recruiting him last year. Then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy even agreed to hold a fundraiser for Lincoln before he even announced his bid, and the committee hinted it might invest in his campaign when it released a February poll that showed him up 44-40 on the incumbent.

That hint turned into reality two weeks ago, when the NRCC began jointly airing a new positive ad with Lincoln in which he describes an encounter with his estranged father, who'd become homeless. The spot also mentions his background as a Marine and his work as mayor. Coordinated expenditures like these are normally limited to about $60,000 in most House races, though Politico, citing AdImpact data, says the NRCC threw down more than ten times that amount.

Now the NRCC is taking a different tack, going on the offensive against Harder. Its new ad slams Harder as a "millionaire venture capitalist from San Francisco," a city 90 minutes from Stockton and even more distant culturally. It then claims Harder "stashed his cash" in the Cayman Islands, an offshore tax haven, while voting to raise taxes.

The ad relies on a Politico report from earlier this year noting that Harder had disclosed owning between $16,000 and $65,000 in two funds based in the Caymans, assets he'd received while working at Bessemer Venture Partners before he first won election to Congress in 2018.

In response to the story, a Harder spokesperson said that the congressman "has no control over funds from his old career," and Politico added that "there is no indication that Bessemer Venture Partners violates U.S. tax laws by having some of its funds based in the islands."

Harder, by contrast, so far appears to have avoided attacking Lincoln on TV. A recent commercial instead contrasts the congressman with the Democratic majority in the state legislature, a group Harder argues has done "nothing" to stop utility rate hikes.

Despite the GOP's enthusiasm, this seat will be difficult to flip. Joe Biden carried the 9th District district 55-43 in 2020, and Harder won reelection in 2022 by a comfortable 55-45 margin.

Ballot Measures

UT Ballot

The Utah Supreme Court on Wednesday upheld a lower court ruling voiding a Republican-backed amendment that would have allowed lawmakers to repeal citizen-sponsored ballot initiatives.

After hearing oral argument earlier in the day, the justices issued a brief, unsigned order concluding that District Court Judge Dianna Gibson was correct in ruling earlier this month that legislators had violated the state constitution in attempting to put their measure, known as Amendment D, before voters.

Gibson determined that the summary of the amendment GOP lawmakers had drafted was misleading, and that they had failed to publicize their proposal two months ahead of Election Day.

Amendment D will still appear on ballots, but votes for it won't be tallied. Its failure ensures that a 2018 initiative voters passed to curb gerrymandering—which Republicans had sought to override, only to get smacked down by the state Supreme Court in a previous ruling—will finally take effect.

Mayors & County Leaders

New York, NY Mayor

New York City Mayor Eric Adams has been indicted by federal prosecutors, according to unnamed sources who spoke with the New York Times, though the charges were still under seal on Wednesday evening when the story first broke.

Adams' administration has been at the center of at least five different federal investigations, but the Times reported that the new indictment stems from a probe into whether the mayor's 2021 election campaign received illegal donations from foreign sources as part of an alleged conspiracy with the Turkish government.

Investigators also looked into allegations that Adams, a Democrat, had successfully pressured the Fire Department to allow the Turkish government to occupy a new $300 million consulate building in Midtown Manhattan even though officials determined it suffered from multiple fire safety deficiencies.

Adams responded to the Times report by calling the reported charges "entirely false, based on lies" in a pre-taped video recording. But many New York Democrats, including some interested in Adams' job, immediately called on the mayor to resign; a handful, most notably Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, had demanded Adams step aside before news of the indictment became public.

If Adams, who is up for reelection next year, were to leave office early, Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, a fellow Democrat, would be elevated to the role of interim mayor. Should a vacancy arise before late March, a special election would be held two to three months later; after that point, Williams would serve until the November general election, with the winner taking office as soon as possible thereafter.

Adams could also be removed from office, either by Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, who could do so unilaterally, or by a special five-member panel of city officials, who would then have to ask a two-thirds majority of the City Council to temporarily or permanently suspend him.

Poll Pile

• MI-Sen: The Tarrance Group (R) for Mike Rogers: Elissa Slotkin (D): 49, Mike Rogers (R): 47 

• NE-Sen-A: SurveyUSA for Dan Osborn: Dan Osborn (I): 45, Deb Fischer (R-inc): 44 (56-40 Trump) (Late Aug.: 39-38 Fischer)

• OH-Sen: RMG Research for Napolitan News: Bernie Moreno (R): 48, Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 46 (54-43 Trump)

• PA-Sen: Muhlenberg College for Morning Call: Bob Casey (D-inc): 48, Dave McCormick (R): 43 (48-48 presidential tie) (April: 45-41 Casey)

• PA-Sen: Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) for La Torre Live: Casey (D-inc): 48, McCormick (R): 40 (46-46 presidential tie) (July: 47-42 Casey)

• NC-Gov: Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) for the AARP: Josh Stein (D): 52, Mark Robinson (R): 42 (48-46 Trump)

• CA-45: Tulchin Research (D) for Derek Tran: Derek Tran (D): 47, Michelle Steel (R-inc): 45 (June: 42-41 Steel)

• MT-01: DCCC Analytics (D): Ryan Zinke (R-inc): 46, Monica Tranel (D): 45 

• VA-07: Ragnar Research Partners (R) for Derrick Anderson: Derrick Anderson (R): 43, Eugene Vindman (D): 43 (Aug.: 42-41 Vindman) 

• NC-AG: Fabrizio and Impact: Jeff Jackson (D): 47, Dan Bishop (R): 43

SurveyUSA's last Nebraska poll was conducted on behalf of a different client, the election analysis site Split Ticket.

Ad Roundup

• AZ-Sen: Win It Back PAC (Club for Growth affiliate) - anti-Ruben Gallego (D)

• MD-Sen: Angela Alsobrooks (D)

• MI-Sen: Mike Rogers (R) and the NRSC - anti-Elissa Slotkin (D) (here and here)

• NE-Sen-A: Retire Career Politicians - pro-Dan Osborn (I) and anti-Deb Fischer (R-inc)

• NM-Sen: Nella Domenici (R) - anti-Martin Heinrich (D-inc)

• NV-Sen: Win It Back - anti-Jacky Rosen (D-inc) (in Spanish)

• OH-Sen: Frecka PAC - pro-Bernie Moreno (R) ($460,000 buy)

• PA-Sen: Win Senate (Senate Majority PAC affiliate) - anti-Dave McCormick (R) (here and here)

• TX-Sen: Colin Allred (D) - anti-Ted Cruz (R-inc) (in Spanish); Cruz - anti-Allred (in Spanish)

• WI-Sen: Eric Hovde (R) - anti-Tammy Baldwin (D-inc) (here, here, and here)

• NH-Gov: Joyce Craig (D)

• CA-13: Congressional Leadership Fund - anti-Adam Gray (D)

• IA-01: CLF - anti-Christina Bohannan (D)

• MD-06: Neil Parrott (R) - anti-April McClain Delaney (D)

• ME-02: CLF - anti-Jared Golden (D-inc)

• NE-02: Tony Vargas (D) - anti-Don Bacon (R-inc)

• NJ-07: Tom Kean (R-inc); Sue Altman (D) - anti-Kean

• NM-02: CLF - anti-Gabe Vasquez (D-inc)

• NY-17: CLF - anti-Mondaire Jones (D)

• NY-22: CLF - anti-John Mannion (D)

• OH-13: Kevin Coughlin (R); CLF - anti-Emilia Sykes (D-inc)

• OR-05: CLF - anti-Janelle Bynum (D)

• PA-07: CLF - anti-Susan Wild (D-inc)

• TX-34: BOLD PAC (Congressional Hispanic Caucus affiliate) - anti-Mayra Flores (R) (in English and Spanish, $600,000 buy)

• VA-02: CLF - anti-Missy Cotter Smasal (D)

• WA-03: DCCC - anti-Joe Kent (R)

• WA-04: Jerrod Sessler (R) - anti-Dan Newhouse (R-inc)

• FL Ballot: Smart & Safe Florida - pro-marijuana amendment

• OH Ballot: Citizens Not Politicians - pro-redistricting amendment

• NC Superintendent of Public Instruction: Mo Green (D) - anti-Michele Morrow (R)