Morning Digest: Like snowbirds, pols from across the country are eyeing this Florida district

A barrel of castoffs hope to revive their political careers—including Madison Cawthorn

Former Rep. Madison Cawthorn during his failed 2022 reelection campaign in North Carolina (credit: Madison Cawthorn campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

FL-19

Fort Myers is not just a popular retirement destination: It's also the place where castoff politicians from other states decamp to revive their political careers.

With Rep. Byron Donalds announcing a bid for governor of Florida (see our FL-Gov item below), the dark red 19th District is now an open seat attracting attention from hordes of Republicans—including many with only tenuous ties to the Sunshine State.

One roster of potential candidates from Florida Politics' Jacob Ogles includes not one but two former House members from elsewhere: Madison Cawthorn, an ex-North Carolinian who involuntarily retired from Congress two years ago at the ripe age of 27; and Chris Collins, a New Yorker who resigned in 2019 after pleading guilty to his part in an insider-trading scheme.

Cawthorn narrowly lost renomination in 2022 to state Sen. Chuck Edwards after a bruising campaign where the challenger and his allies highlighted the one-term congressman's various scandals, embarrassing videos, unhinged rhetoric, and run-ins with the law. Cawthorn also alienated voters in western North Carolina by announcing a campaign for an even more conservative district in the Charlotte area that he had almost no links to before a new court-drawn map foreclosed that possibility.

Cawthorn, though, soon decided he was done with any part of the Tarheel State and bought a $1 million home in Cape Coral after his defeat in the primary. In November, the ex-congressman said in comments to Punchbowl that he was considering running to succeed Donalds if his former colleague left to seek higher office, and he told Jewish Insider's Matthew Kassel Wednesday that he's still thinking about it.

But while Cawthorn added he remains undecided, Ogles says that several political observers anticipate that he'll use this opportunity to try to return to the House. That would be unwelcome news for GOP leaders who remember Cawthorn's evidence-free insinuations from 2022 claiming that an unidentified colleague had invited him to an "orgy" and that he'd witnessed prominent conservatives doing "a key bump of cocaine."

Collins, who won a seat in the Buffalo suburbs in 2012 by unseating future Gov. Kathy Hochul, was more of a team player during his seven years in office. One person who appreciated his loyalty was Donald Trump, who remembered that Collins was one of the first members of Congress to endorse his 2016 presidential bid. In 2020, Trump pardoned Collins just two months into what was supposed to be a 26-month prison sentence.

Collins, who at 74 could pass for a typical retiree from up north much more easily than Cawthorn, likewise moved to the Sunshine State and started talking about running to replace Donalds a couple of years ago. While Collins doesn't appear to have said anything about the idea publicly since then, Ogles relays that he's spoken to consultants about a comeback campaign.

Remarkably, Cawthorn and Collins are by no means the only out-of-staters who might run—not by a long shot.

Ogles also name-drops former Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis, who unsuccessfully ran for the House or statewide office seven times between 2002 and 2020. (That most recent campaign ended in a narrow loss to Democratic Rep. Lauren Underwood.) The 78-year-old Oberweis, whose critics argued he'd decamped to Florida when he was still an elected official in the Land of Lincoln, doesn't seem to have said anything about his interest in one more campaign, though.

And other failed congressional candidates also from Illinois could join in. One who appears to have aired the idea publicly is businessman Jack Lombardi, who took fourth place in the 2022 primary to face Underwood. Ogles also relays speculation that former Trump administration official Catalina Lauf, who was the party's nominee that same year against Democratic Rep. Bill Foster, could be a candidate.

But believe it or not, some people who have won office in Florida are eyeing the race for Donalds' seat, too.

Lee County Commissioner Cecil Pendergrass and former state Rep. Spencer Roach both tell Ogles they're interested, while state Reps. Adam Botana and Jenna Persons-Mulicka didn't reject the idea when asked. There's also some chatter that former state Rep. Bob Rommel, who is currently running for the state Senate, could campaign for Congress instead.

Jim Schwartzel, who runs the national radio network Sun Broadcasting, reportedly has also discussed a bid with local leaders. But while Ogles says there's long been talk that grocery chain owner Alfie Oakes could seek higher office, his influence in local GOP politics was waning even before federal authorities raided his properties last year.

Several current and former Republican elected officials, meanwhile, say they won't run. One notable "no" comes from former state Rep. Dane Eagle, who lost the 2020 primary to Donalds by fewer than 800 votes.

The Downballot Podcast

Dems who don't stand up to Trump could face an insurgency

Democrats have a lot of options when deciding how to oppose Donald Trump—and some of them are making the wrong choices. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, we make a case study out of Massachusetts Rep. Stephen Lynch, whose recent outburst at constituents who exhorted him to more forcefully resist Trump could net him a primary challenge. But it's not just Lynch: Anger among Democratic voters and activists is intense, and it could lead to a widespread insurgency that reshapes the party, much as the tea party movement did with the GOP in 2010.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also check in on several races where big news has broken over the last week, including Mitch McConnell's long-awaited retirement announcement—and why would-be Republican successors want nothing to do with him. Also on tap are the open governor's seats in Florida and Ohio, where major Trump-backed candidates just jumped in. And finally, we wrap up with a look at the recent German elections and what they mean for the country's relations with the U.S.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

Senate

GA-Sen

Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper revealed his interest in running for the Senate on Wednesday by posting a picture of himself visiting the offices of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Harper is one of several Georgia Republicans who could challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff if the NRSC's top choice, Gov. Brian Kemp, decides not to enter the race.

The GOP field, though, will likely be in stasis for a while to come. Kemp told Fox News this week that he was concentrating on the ongoing legislative session, which ends in early April. He added, though, that when it comes to making up his mind, "I know I can't keep holding out forever, so we'll have something to say on that down the road."

Kemp's eventual answer may disappoint his party, as the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein says that "some of the gov's allies expect" him to turn down the Senate race. The NRSC, though, remains adamant about trying to land the man that chair Tim Scott predicts "would be the best candidate in Georgia we've had for a very long time."

MN-Sen

Democratic Gov. Tim Walz has decided not to run for Minnesota's open Senate seat, his team said Wednesday. The statement, which reaffirmed that the governor is still considering whether to seek reelection to his current job, removes what's arguably been the biggest question hanging over the Senate race and could encourage other Democrats to get in.

One person who was eager for Walz to make his plans known was Rep. Angie Craig, who said earlier this week she would "take what he decides into consideration before I make a decision." However, the Minnesota Star Tribune's Sydney Kashiwagi says that fellow Rep. Kelly Morrison has decided not to seek a promotion, though we haven't seen any quotes from Morrison about her plans.

Several other Democrats could run to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith, and Secretary of State Steve Simon tells Forum Communications he hasn't closed the door on getting in. For now, though, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan remains the only major Democratic candidate.

On the GOP side, Rep. Michelle Fischbach didn't rule out running when contacted by Kashiwagi, saying merely that "it's too early." But Rep. Brad Finstad hasn't even said that much about his plans, and Kashiwagi writes that "it's unclear" if he's thinking about a bid for the upper chamber.

Governors

FL-Gov

Rep. Byron Donalds announced his campaign for governor of Florida on Tuesday evening, a long-awaited move that came just days after Donald Trump pre-endorsed him.

Donalds, who would be the Sunshine State's first Black chief executive, is the first major Republican in the race, and observers are wondering if he might be the last. Termed-out Gov. Ron DeSantis, however, has talked up his wife, former TV anchor Casey DeSantis, as a possible candidate to replace him.

MN-Gov

Former state GOP chair David Hann is open to running for governor, he tells the Minnesota Star Tribune's Ryan Faircloth. The former state Senate minority leader lost his bid to continue running the party in December, so he should have plenty of time free to think about his next steps.

VA-Gov

Former Del. Dave LaRock announced this week that he would seek the Republican nomination for governor against Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, who until now had no intraparty opposition. LaRock is hoping to outflank the woman he called the party's "presumptive nominee" from the right, blasting Earle-Sears on his website as someone who "offers platitudes and backtracks on conservative values."

LaRock, though, needs to work fast to ensure he'll have a spot on the June 17 ballot. Virginia requires candidates for governor to collect 10,000 valid signatures statewide by April 3, including 400 signatures from each of the state's 11 congressional districts.

House

NY-17

Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson has publicized an endorsement from former Rep. Mondaire Jones ahead of next year's Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Mike Lawler. Jones' bid to return to Congress last year ended with his 52-46 loss to Lawler, and he showed no obvious interest in another try.

PA-07

Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure says he'll have a "major announcement concerning Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district" tonight, which likely heralds the launch of a campaign against Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie. McClure, who is not seeking reelection this fall, would be the first prominent Democrat to challenge Mackenzie in what's one of the most competitive House seats in the country.

Legislatures

Special Elections

Three vacant legislative seats in New England were all held by their respective parties in special elections on Tuesday night, with Democrats outperforming last year's presidential margins by double digits in two of them. Meanwhile, Republicans may have avoided a runoff in a state Senate race in California, though some votes remain to be counted.

In Connecticut's 21st Senate District, Republican state Rep. Jason Perillo defeated Democrat Tony Afriyie 53-47 for a constituency Donald Trump had carried 50-49, according to calculations by The Downballot. This area, however, is ancestrally Republican further down the ballot. Most notably, the district—which has long been based around the town of Shelton—has been in GOP hands continuously since 1967.

On the other side of the state in the 40th House District, Democrat Dan Gaiewski turned back Republican Robert Morris 69-31. This seat around Groton had backed Kamala Harris by a 60-38 margin.

Meanwhile, in Maine's 24th House District, Democrat Sean Faircloth, a former lawmaker and mayor of Bangor, held off Republican Carolyn Fish 72-28. We estimate that this district voted for Harris by a 61-31 spread, but because of issues with how Maine reports election results, those figures come with an unknowable margin of error. Given how much Faircloth ran up the score, however, it's all but certain he exceeded Harris' showing.

Finally, incomplete results in California's 36th Senate District place Republican Tony Strickland at 51% of the vote as of Wednesday afternoon—just above the majority he'd need to avert a second round of voting on April 29. However, more votes remain to be tallied, which could push Strickland into a runoff against Democrat Jimmy Pham, who's currently at 27%.

This seat became vacant after Republican Janet Nguyen won an election to the Orange County Board of Supervisors last year. Trump won the district 51-47 last year.

In our last Digest, we incorrectly said that Donald Trump beat Joe Biden by 15 points in Arizona's 2nd District. That figure refers to Trump's margin of victory over Kamala Harris last year. Trump beat Biden by 8 points in 2020.