Morning Digest: Longtime congressman won't rule out late bid for governor in Virginia
But Bobby Scott would face an imposing obstacle in Abigail Spanberger
Leading Off
VA-Gov
Rep. Bobby Scott, who's recently been the subject of rumors that he might run for governor, now tells Punchbowl News that he's not ruling out a bid.
Scott, 77, has held public office continually since 1978 and joined the House in 1993, making him the first Black person to represent Virginia in Congress since the late 19th century. Thanks to his seniority, he's served as the top Democrat on the Education and Workforce Committee for the past decade.
If Scott were to seek the governorship, he'd run headlong into fellow Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who's been in the race for more than a year and had amassed a war chest of more than $5 million at the end of June—a figure that's undoubtedly swollen since then. Scott, by contrast, had just $200,000 in his federal campaign account as of late last month, and it's not clear whether he could transfer those funds to a state race.
According to Punchbowl, unnamed "senior Virginia Democrats" have "expressed concerns with Spanberger's ability to excite Black voters in the state," particularly after Kamala Harris lost ground with voters of color. It's not clear, though, what the nature of those concerns might be. (Spanberger is white.)
Sentiments last month reportedly expressed by state Sen. Louise Lucas, one of the most prominent Black politicians in the state, shed some more light. According to reporter Brandon Jarvis, Lucas has been "calling around expressing her displeasure with Spanberger’s outreach to the Black community." Spanberger's team told Punchbowl that the campaign has "made consistent outreach to all corners and communities of Virginia."
Scott has until April 3 to file for the June 17 primary, but given Spanberger's considerable head start, time is almost up for him to make a move. The late hour may explain why, according to Punchbowl, "[t]op Democratic sources are doubtful" Scott will go for it.
House
MI-07, NY-17
Unnamed strategists who recently spoke with the National Journal's James Downs suggested a few potential candidates who could run for House seats that Democrats narrowly lost this year.
In Michigan's 7th District, a Lansing-area seat that Republican Tom Barrett flipped after Democrat Elissa Slotkin left it open to wage a successful Senate bid, these operatives mention state Sen. Sarah Anthony. Anthony considered running last cycle but declined after saying that "Lansing is always going to be my number one priority."
Meanwhile, in New York's 17th, a familiar name has resurfaced: Liz Whitmer Gereghty, a former local school board member and the sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. In 2023, Whitmer Gereghty briefly ran for this Hudson Valley-based seat but dropped out after getting swamped in fundraising by former Rep. Mondaire Jones, who lost to Republican Rep. Mike Lawler 52-46. There's a good chance this seat will be open in 2026, though, since Lawler looks primed to run for governor.
NY-16, NY-Gov
Outgoing Rep. Jamaal Bowman, who was defeated in the Democratic primary earlier this year, says there's a "very slim" chance he could run for Congress again in two years in a new interview with Spectrum News' Kevin Frey. Bowman lost that race to Westchester County Executive George Latimer by a 59-41 margin, a defeat he calls "a public execution for the country to see."
Bowman also held out the possibility that he could seek higher office, telling Frey, “U.S. Senate? Maybe. Governor? Maybe.” New York's next Senate race is not until 2028, when Democrat Chuck Schumer's seat will be up, but Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul faces reelection in two years.
Final numbers.....
Kamala Harris won 447 counties nationally compared to Biden's 538. I think that puts Harris at the fewest county wins since Mondale.
There were only 61 counties (and independent cities) that voted differently in the Senate race than the Presidential race, which is actually up from 43 in 2020.
A reemerging era of ticket-splitting? Hardly. In most cases, these 61 counties are places that went Biden four years but flipped to Trump in 2024, yet still narrowly held out for the Democratic Senate nominee.
Counties that split their ticket include....
1 Trump/Gallego county in Arizona (Maricopa)
1 Harris/Garvey county in California (Orange)
1 Harris/Banks county in Indiana (St. Joseph)
6 Trump/King counties in Maine (Androscoggin, Aroostook, Franklin, Kennebec, Oxford, and Penobscot)
2 Harris/Hogan counties in Maryland (Anne Arundel and Frederick)
2 Harris/Deaton counties in Massachusetts (Bristol and Plymouth)
1 Trump/Slotkin county in Michigan (Saginaw)
12 Trump/Klobuchar counties in Minnesota (Anoka, Beltrami, Blue Earth, Carlton, Carver, Mahnomen, Mower, Nicollet, Norman, Rice, Scott, Winona)
1 Trump/Kunce county in Missouri (Platte)
6 Trump/Tester counties in Montana (Big Horn, Blaine, Hill, Lewis and Clark, Park, and Roosevelt)
2 Trump/Osborn counties in Nebraska (Sarpy and Thurston)
2 Trump/Kim counties in New Jersey (Gloucester and Passaic)
1 Trump/Heinrich county in New Mexico (Socorro)
6 Trump/Gillibrand counties in New York (Clinton, Essex, Ontario, Orange, Rockland, and Warren)
1 (!!) Trump/Brown county in Ohio (Lorain)
3 Trump/Casey counties in Pennsylvania (Bucks, Erie, and Monroe)
1 Harris/Blackburn county in Tennessee (Haywood)
7 Trump/Allred counties in Texas (Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Tarrant, Webb, Willacy, and Williamson)
1 Harris/Curtis county in Utah (Salt Lake)
1 Trump/Sanders county in Vermont (Orleans)
2 Trump/Kaine counties in Virginia (Prince Edward and Surry)
1 Trump/Cantwell county in Washington (Pacific)
1 Trump/Baldwin county in Wisconsin (Sauk)
German parliament votes to remove government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz in no-confidence motion he called himself, triggering February 2025 snap election