Morning Digest: Meet the most prominent Republican standing by Mark Robinson

Rep. Dan Bishop is running for attorney general. Why would he stick his neck out like this?

Rep. Dan Bishop, the GOP’s nominee for attorney general of North Carolina, rallying with Donald Trump (credit: Dan Bishop for attorney general)

Leading Off

NC-AG, NC-Gov

Mark Robinson's senior staff and his erstwhile allies at the Republican Governor's Association have all abandoned his campaign for governor of North Carolina, but Rep. Dan Bishop remains an ardent defender of the most toxic Republican candidate in America.

Bishop, who is running for state attorney general, dedicated part of his address at a Donald Trump rally in Wilmington on Saturday to fire off evidence-free accusations insinuating that Democrats had concocted last week's CNN story about Robinson's old comments on a pornographic site.

"This week in North Carolina, Democrats suddenly abandoned their aversion to hack and dump, rolled out a meticulously timed and coordinated character assassination, and then moved immediately to smear by association," the congressman told the crowd. "Their aim, they say, is to disgrace not just one but all Republican candidates, in the name of decency, they say."

WRAL reported on Monday that Robinson had turned down offers from supporters who wanted to prove the posts did not come from him, a decision the station says "sowed doubt among some staff members."

But Bishop doesn't seem to harbor any such doubts. The congressman, who used his speech to compare the GOP's current opponents to the "white supremacist Democrats" who murdered dozens of African Americans in the 1898 Wilmington coup, faces Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson for one of this swing state's most important offices.

The two House colleagues congressmen are campaigning to succeed Democrat Josh Stein, who was already favored to become the third attorney general in a row to win North Carolina's governorship even before last week.

Jackson has emphasized the danger of making Bishop, who voted to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential race, North Carolina's top law enforcement official, and the Republican has shown little interest in assuaging skeptics. Bishop told journalist Bryan Anderson earlier this month that, while he denounced the Jan. 6 riot, "Kamala Harris in her debate the other day said police officers died at the Capitol, multiple police officers died at the Capitol on Jan. 6—that's a lie." 

The candidate continued, "And then they suggest that police officers who committed suicide months and months later were somehow caused by Jan. 6. That is such a stretch." After Anderson offered Bishop the chance to clarify what he'd said, he replied, "There may be some officer whose subsequent suicide had to do with the traumatic event of that day, but you can't assume it."

Jackson is one of many Democrats eager to highlight their opponent's connections to Robinson, who is in little position to fight back. Robinson's campaign manager and several other senior staffers resigned over the weekend, and the RGA soon made it clear it does not share the candidate's belief that he has "full confidence we can go on."

The group instead confirmed Monday that, after spending nearly $16 million on advertising to boost Robinson's candidacy, it had no ad time reserved for the remaining five weeks of the race. What's left of the Robinson campaign also has nothing booked to counter what AdImpact says is $12 million worth of reservations from Stein and his allies.

And that doesn't even include the commercials that Harris' presidential campaign is airing tying Trump to Robinson, who is featured in a clip saying, "Abortion in this country is about killing the child because you aren't responsible enough to keep your skirt down." Trump, unlike Bishop, had nothing to say at Saturday's rally about the candidate he once dubbed "Martin Luther King on steroids."

Senate

MD-Sen

A conservative super PAC partially funded by conservative megadonor Ken Griffin has booked $18 million in ad time to aid Maryland Republican Larry Hogan's Senate bid, reports Politico.

That makes Griffin's organization, Maryland's Future, by far the most active outside group on the GOP side. The only other outfit that has spent a notable sum to help Hogan is the John Bolton PAC (yes, as in that John Bolton), which has spent $1 million so far.

The main outside group on the Democratic side remains EMILYs List, which has now deployed $4.4 million to boost Democrat Angela Alsobrooks. That's double what EMILYs announced it would spend in early September. Its newest commercial continues to hit Hogan's opposition to abortion as governor.

House

AK-AL

The NRCC has released an internal poll from American Viewpoint that shows Republican Nick Begich leading Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola 44-40 in the race for Alaska's only U.S. House seat, compared to a 45-39 advantage for Peltola in a previously unreleased late August survey from the same pollster.

The memo says that Begich continues to lead once every ranked-choice voting scenario is tested, though it does not include any specific numbers. It also does not mention how respondents view the presidential race.

The NRCC and Begich earlier this month publicized a poll from a different firm, Cygnal, that gave Peltola a tiny 46-45 advantage as Donald Trump matched his 53-43 margin from 2020. We haven't seen any other surveys in months from Alaska's at-large congressional district.

CA-16

Former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo's allies at Neighbors for Results have released a poll showing Liccardo leading Assemblyman Evan Low 42-28 in the all-Democratic general election for California's 16th District.

The survey's sponsor is a PAC largely funded by former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg. The poll, which was conducted by Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies, is the first we've seen in almost two months. The last was a late July Tulchin Research internal for Low that placed Liccardo ahead just 30-29.

The race for this dark blue constituency attracted national attention this spring when results from the top-two primary initially showed Low and a third Democrat, Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian, tied in the race for the second general election spot. Had those results stood, that would have led to an unprecedented three-way congressional election.

That didn't come to pass, however, because a recount partially funded by Neighbors for Results left Simitian five votes behind Low. Neither Simitian nor retiring Rep. Anna Eshoo, who supported the supervisor in the first round, have taken sides in the Liccardo-Low showdown.

NY-04

Freshman Rep. Anthony D'Esposito, one of the most vulnerable Republicans in Congress, gave a part-time job in his congressional office to a woman he was having an affair with, reports the New York Times' Nicholas Fandos.

D'Esposito also hired the daughter of a woman described as his "longtime fiancée," Catherine Lark, who "briefly broke up with him" after learning of his affair last year. Both hires, explains Fandos, could violate House ethics rules that prohibit lawmakers from employing family members or having sexual relationships with subordinates.

Two years ago, D'Esposito flipped New York's 4th Congressional District on Long Island's South Shore, defeating Democrat Laura Gillen in a 52-48 upset. That victory, however, immediately made him a top Democratic target, since his district, which backed Joe Biden by a 57-42 margin in 2020, is the bluest held by a House Republican.

Gillen is back for a rematch and has proven to be a very strong fundraiser. D'Esposito's fundraising, by contrast, had largely been lackadaisical most of the cycle until picking up in the most recent quarter.

The most recent poll of the race, sponsored by the pro-Democratic House Majority PAC, found Gillen ahead 50-47 late last month. To date, HMP and its allies at the DCCC have spent more than $1 million to help elect Gillen. Their opposite numbers on the GOP side have yet to spend anything on D'Esposito's behalf.

NY-17

A new internal poll for Democrat Mondaire Jones shows him trailing freshman Republican Rep. Mike Lawler 46-43 in New York's 17th District, with another 5% going to Working Families Party nominee Anthony Frascone. A memo from pollster GBAO argues that the presence of Frascone, who has a history of voting in GOP primaries, is only playing a small role, as Lawler leads 47-45 in a two-way matchup. 

GBAO also says that Jones' deficit represents an improvement from Lawler's 47-40 advantage in a previously unreleased August survey. The memo did not include presidential numbers for this Hudson Valley district that Joe Biden carried 54-44 four years ago but where the GOP made major gains in 2022.

The only other survey we've seen here this year was an August poll from Change Research for the Democratic group Future Majority, which placed Lawler ahead 43-38 as Frascone took 6%.

Independent Expenditures

The DCCC and the House Majority PAC continue to outspend their Republican counterparts in the battle for control of the House, as the latest update to The Downballot's independent expenditure tracker shows—a reflection of a broader trend up and down the ballot nationwide.

The two big Democratic organizations combined to deploy more than $14 million over the last week while the NRCC and the Congressional Leadership Fund together spent a bit more than $12.5 million. For the cycle to date, Democrats have shelled out $31 million on the general election compared with $19.5 million for the GOP.

That's the same pattern we're seeing across the country, according to new data from AdImpact published by Axios. All told, Democratic campaigns—from the presidential on down—and allied outside groups have spent or plan to $1.8 billion on the airwaves through Election Day. That compares with just $1.3 billion for Republicans.

The House battlefield, however, has shaped up more slowly than it did two years ago. At a comparable point in 2022, according to archival data from The Downballot, the "Big Four" House groups had already spent $92 million across 57 districts. This year, that total stands at $46.5 million spread between just 34 races.

Obituaries

Dan Evans

Republican Dan Evans, who served as governor of Washington from 1965 to 1977 and in the U.S. Senate from 1983 through 1989, died Friday at age 98. The Seattle Times' obituary takes a look at Evans' long career, including his leadership during what it calls a "particularly tumultuous period" in the Evergreen State's history.

Evans had long been the only person to serve three consecutive terms as governor until Washington's current chief executive, Democrat Jay Inslee, claimed what turned out to be his final term in 2020. (Inslee mulled breaking Evans' record and going for a historic fourth term, but he instead opted to retire this cycle.) Evans was also the nation's oldest surviving former senator, a distinction now held by 94-year-old New Jersey Republican Nicholas Brady.

Poll Pile

• AZ-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Ruben Gallego (D): 49, Kari Lake (R): 43 (48-43 Trump) (Aug.: 51-42 Gallego)

• AZ-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph: Gallego (D): 46, Lake (R): 41 (47-47 presidential tie) (Early Sept.: 48-42 Gallego)

• FL-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Rick Scott (R-inc): 45, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): 41 (50-45 Trump) (Early Sept.: 44-41 Scott)

• MI-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Elissa Slotkin (D-inc): 46, Mike Rogers (R): 37 (46-45 Harris) (Early Sept.: 44-39 Slotkin)

• MN-Sen: Mason-Dixon for KARE 11, MPR News, and the Minnesota Star Tribune: Amy Klobuchar (D-inc): 51, Royce White (R): 40 (48-43 Harris)

• MN-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Klobuchar (D-inc): 42, White (R): 34 (50-44 Harris) (Early Sept.: 42-36 Klobuchar)

• NE-Sen-A: Global Strategy Group (D) for Retire Career Politicians (pro-Dan Osborn): Deb Fischer (R-inc): 43, Dan Osborn (I): 42 (54-37 Trump) 

• NM-Sen: SurveyUSA for KOB-TV: Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 47, Nella Domenici (R): 34 (50-42 Harris)

• NV-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 47, Sam Brown (R): 38 (45-45 presidential tie) (Early Sept.: 47-39 Rosen)

• PA-Sen: MassINC for Spotlight PA: Bob Casey (D-inc): 49, Dave McCormick (R): 42 (50-46 Harris)

• PA-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Casey (D-inc): 47, McCormick (R): 41 (47-47 presidential tie) (Early Sept.: 44-36 Casey)

• TX-Sen: Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation: Ted Cruz (R-inc): 48, Colin Allred (D): 45, Ted Brown (L): 2 (50-44 Trump) (April: 46-41 Cruz)

• WI-Sen: MassInc for Wisconsin Watch: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 52, Eric Hovde (R): 44 (51-45 Harris)

• WI-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Baldwin (D-inc): 46, Hovde (R): 41 (47-47 presidential tie) (Early Sept.: 46-39 Baldwin)

• DE-Gov: Slingshot Strategies (D) for Citizens for Judicial Fairness: Matt Meyer (D): 52, Mike Ramone (R): 25 (54-37 Harris)

• NC-Gov: Siena: Josh Stein (D): 47, Mark Robinson (R): 37 (47-45 Trump) (Aug.: 49-39 Stein)

• AZ Ballot: Abortion amendment: Yes: 58, No: 35

The Nebraska poll was finished just before Labor Day.

Ad Roundup

• AZ-Sen: Kari Lake (R) - anti-Ruben Gallego (D)

• NV-Sen: VoteVets - pro-Jacky Rosen (D-inc)

• VA-Sen: Tim Kaine (D-inc)

• CA-03: Kevin Kiley (R-inc)

• CA-09: Kevin Lincoln (R) and the NRCC

• CA-41: Will Rollins (D) - anti-Ken Calvert (R-inc); Environmental Defense Fund - anti-Calvert

• CA-49: Matt Gunderson (R) - anti-Mike Levin (D-inc)

• CO-08: Yadira Caraveo (D-inc) - anti-Gabe Evans (R)

• CT-05: Jahana Hayes (D-inc)

• DE-AL: Sarah McBride (D)

• ME-02: Jared Golden (D-inc)

• NY-17: Mike Lawler (R-inc) - anti-Mondaire Jones (D); Lawler (in Spanish)

• NY-19: Josh Riley (D) (here, here, and here); Marc Molinaro (R-inc) - anti-Riley

• OH-09: Congressional Leadership Fund - anti-Marcy Kaptur (D-inc)

• PA-08: Matt Cartwright (D-inc); CLF - anti-Cartwright

• VA-07: Derrick Anderson (R); Eugene Vindman (D)

• WA-03: Joe Kent (R)

• WI-03: Derrick Van Orden (R-inc) - anti-Rebecca Cooke (D); Cooke (D) - anti-Van Orden 

• AZ Ballot: Arizona for Abortion Access - pro-abortion amendment (part of $15 million buy)

• FL Ballot: Smart & Safe Florida - pro-marijuana amendment

• San Francisco, CA Mayor: Daniel Lurie