Morning Digest: Mitch McConnell hasn't said he's retiring, but everyone's acting like it

That means it's time to take a look at all the would-be replacements

Former Attorney General Daniel Cameron is one of the many Kentucky Republicans eyeing next year’s Senate race (credit: Daniel Cameron Facebook)

Leading Off

KY-Sen

Multiple Kentucky Republicans are now publicly or privately expressing interest in running to succeed Mitch McConnell, whom almost everyone anticipates will retire next year after stepping down as leader of the Senate GOP and suffering a series of health issues.

Former Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who unsuccessfully challenged Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear in 2023, is the most vocal about his desire to run. Cameron, who would be the state's first Black senator, informed the Lexington Herald-Leader's Austin Horn on Monday night that he would be "honored to" represent this dark red state in the upper chamber.

Cameron, who previously served as McConnell's general counsel, became one of the most prominent politicians in the Bluegrass State following his election as attorney general in 2019. However, his star dimmed somewhat when he took on the popular Beshear four years later only to lose 53-47. Donald Trump, who backed Cameron in the primary, reacted to his defeat by writing, "Daniel Cameron lost because he couldn't alleviate the stench of Mitch McConnell."

Cameron, who has described the former GOP leader as a "friend" and a "mentor," expressed interest in a comeback just hours after CBS reported that Rep. Andy Barr had told donors over the weekend that he's decided to wage his own bid for the upper chamber. The congressman, who has not publicly announced his plans, finished last year with $3.7 million banked—money he could transfer to a Senate campaign.

A poll conducted in early December, however, argues that it's Cameron who starts out as the frontrunner in the primary. Co/efficient shows the former attorney general leading Barr 37-12, with former United Nations Ambassador Kelly Craft clocking in at just 6%. A fourth Republican, businessman Nate Morris, takes 1%, while a sizable 36% are undecided.

Horn, who first shared the numbers, notes that the co/efficient was co-founded by a former Cameron consultant, though it's not clear if this survey was done on his behalf. The memo, however, enthusiastically touts the former attorney general as "extremely well-positioned" and describes his 56-11 favorable rating as "unassailable."

Every candidate. Every time. Whenever an important seat opens up, we don’t content ourselves with naming just a handful of would-be contenders and say, "Good enough." We go the extra mile to make sure we’ve accounted for everyone, because you never know who might win. If you appreciate our thoroughness, please consider becoming a paid supporter.

Craft, who took a distant third place against Cameron in the 2023 gubernatorial primary, has not shown any obvious desire to wage a campaign for the Senate, and she did not respond to Horn's requests for comment.

Morris, by contrast, told the far-right site Breitbart last week that he was interested in running next year. Morris, though, also said he could instead join the 2027 race to replace Beshear, who cannot seek a third term as governor. He later posted a video on social media Tuesday imploring viewers, "Check back with me over the next few months as I make this decision."

Morris, an ally of Sen. Rand Paul, is no fan of Kentucky's other Republican senator. He responded to McConnell's vote against confirming Pete Hegseth as secretary of defense by tweeting, "Mitch once again put his petty hatred of @realDonaldTrump ahead of Kentucky."

A few other Republicans have also kept their names in contention. Former state Sen. Damon Thayer, who retired last month after a 12-year stint as majority leader, recently told The Courier Journal's Hannah Pinski he was looking at running for governor but also "keeping my eye on things at the federal level as well." Thayer, though, separately told Horn that he was also open to running for Barr's House seat. (See our KY-06 item below.)

By contrast, state Senate President Robert Stivers sounds unlikely to trade his post in state government for a seat in Congress. He informed The Herald-Leader, "I think the state legislature has a lot more influence and impact on people's daily lives than our federal legislation does." Horn and fellow reporter David Catanese, though, note that Stivers' comments weren't quite a "no."

A few other Republicans, however, have ruled out running for the Senate. Rep. James Comer recently informed Spectrum News' Mario Anderson that he'll seek reelection to the House in 2026, though he added that he's considering running for governor the following year. State House Speaker David Osborne, meanwhile, told Horn he won't campaign to replace McConnell.

And while Rep. Thomas Massie's name still comes up as a possible Senate candidate, CBS reports that he's informed his allies he "doesn't intend to run." House GOP leaders likely wish that Massie, who refused to vote for Mike Johnson in last month's speakership contest, would change his mind and try to become someone else's problem. (Massie trails Cameron 32-16 in another matchup tested by co/efficient.)

Every Democratic wishlist, by contrast, starts and ends with Beshear, even though he doesn't sound like he wants to be on that list. The governor emphatically told the media almost a year ago, "I'm completely and totally ruling out a run for any open Senate seat in 2026."

But not everyone is convinced that Beshear is really "completely and totally" out of the race. CBS says that GOP donors at a recent party retreat believe it's still an "open question" if the governor would run to replace McConnell. (This is the same event at which Barr reportedly said he would run himself.) Even Beshear, however, would have a difficult time in a state that hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1992, when the late Wendell Ford won his final campaign.

One Democrat, however, has decided to take up the challenge. State House Minority Leader Pamela Stevenson told Anderson last week that she'd run, though she added that her main focus this year was preparing her caucus for next year's legislative elections.

If McConnell, who is 82, leaves office before his term ends, his seat would remain vacant until a special election is held to replace him. While such a development would deprive the chamber's new majority leader, South Dakota Sen. John Thune, of a key vote for months, Republicans in the Kentucky legislature have made it plain that they prefer it to some of the alternatives.

Beshear began his governorship with the power to fill a vacant seat with the person of his choice—a power Republicans feared he'd someday use to appoint a Democrat. A year after Beshear took office, legislators passed a law over his veto requiring the governor to choose from a three-person list submitted by the party of the person who last held the seat. However, Beshear did not rule out selecting a Democrat should the need arise, suggesting the law violated the state constitution.

Perhaps fearful Beshear—a former state attorney general—had the right read on the law, Republicans decided to make sure he couldn't appoint anyone and easily passed a new law (again over the governor's veto) mandating that a Senate seat stay vacant until a special election. McConnell supported this latest switch even as he continued to insist that he'd remain in the Senate at least until his term expires in early 2027.

Senate

SC-Sen

Far-right businessman Mark Lynch has launched a campaign challenging Sen. Lindsey Graham in next year's Republican primary, arguing that the longtime incumbent has failed to demonstrate sufficient fealty to Donald Trump.

Lynch, who runs a home appliance store, says he plans to put in at least $4 million of his own money, though Graham is a proven fundraiser and already has more than $15 million stockpiled. Lynch previously sought to primary another incumbent, state Sen. Mark Talley, in 2020 but lost by a 53-47 margin. In that race, he self-funded a more modest $100,000.

Governors

MI-Gov, MI-Sen

A very early hypothetical poll of Michigan's open-seat race for governor shows Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, a longtime Democrat who's running as an independent, pulling support about equally from both sides.

Duggan, however, still finds himself in third place with just 23% of the vote in EPIC-MRA's new survey, while Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who is seeking the Democratic nod, is tied at 31% with Republican megadonor Dick DeVos, who hasn't shown any obvious interest in the race. Fifteen percent were undecided.

Democrats have reason to worry that Duggan's candidacy could disproportionately hurt their nominee, but the poll shows 23% of Democratic voters would back the mayor while a comparable 21% of Republicans would do the same.

The poll also tested out one potential matchup in the state's Senate race, which is also open due to Democrat Gary Peters' retirement. In that pairing, former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost a Senate bid last year, leads former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg 47-41. Rogers is reportedly planning to launch another campaign while Buttigieg is considering seeking the Democratic nomination.

NM-Gov

Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland formally kicked off her widely anticipated campaign to serve as New Mexico's next governor on Monday, a bid that could make her the first Native American woman elected to lead any state.

Haaland, a member of the federally recognized Laguna Pueblo tribe, is also the first major candidate in either party to join the race to succeed Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, who is termed out.

And given her stature, she may keep other big-name Democrats out: Sen. Martin Heinrich recently declined to run, leaving Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman as the only other notable Democrat still potentially in the mix.

Haaland succeeded Bregman as chair of the state party in 2015, following an election that saw New Mexico Democrats hit a low point as Republicans won a majority in the state House for the first time in more than 60 years. Haaland herself served as number two on a ticket that lost the governor's race 57-43, the worst showing by Democrats in state history.

But under Haaland, Democrats regained the House and the office of secretary of state in 2016. Two years later, she ran for the open 1st Congressional District, defeating her nearest opponent in the primary 41-26 and easily winning the general election. That victory made her, along with Kansas Democrat Sharice Davids, one of the first two Native women to win seats in Congress.

Shortly after securing a second term in 2020, Joe Biden tapped Haaland to run the Department of the Interior, making her the first Native American to serve as a cabinet secretary.

So far, just one Republican, Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, has said he's considering the contest, though a few other names have been mentioned. Democrats have carried New Mexico in every presidential election since 2008, but no party has won more than two consecutive elections for governor since the 1980s.

Historic firsts—like those that have marked Deb Haaland’s career—matter to us because a representative democracy should reflect its citizenry. That’s why we take frequent note of them. If they matter to you, too, then please consider upgrading to a paid subscription to support The Downballot today!

SC-Gov

Republican Rep. Nancy Mace accused Attorney General Alan Wilson of failing to prosecute four men she accused of rape in a speech on the House floor on Monday night—a charge that Wilson, a likely rival in next year's primary for governor, denied as "categorically false."

Mace alleged that she'd uncovered video showing her nude without her consent and said her former fiancé and three other men had drugged and raped her and other women. She also said the men had filmed and photographed minor girls unclothed. Mace said she had evidence to support her accusations but did not provide any.

In a statement released ahead of the congresswoman's hour-long speech, Mace's office said her remarks were "protected by the speech and debate clause," a provision of the Constitution that broadly insulates lawmakers from legal liability for activity related to the conduct of legislative business.

Mace identified all four men by name, but most media outlets have not printed their names. One exception, though, is her ex-fiancé, Patrick Bryant, who said in a statement that he "categorically den[ies] these allegations" and pledged to cooperate with "any necessary legal processes to clear my name." South Carolina's State Law Enforcement Division said it had opened an investigation into Bryant late in 2023 and said the probe remains ongoing.

Wilson likewise rejected Mace's accusations. Mace claimed to have turned over evidence to law enforcement officials, but Wilson, who serves as chief prosecutor for the state, said in a statement that he had "not received any reports or requests for assistance" from investigators.

Both Mace and Wilson acknowledged their interest last month in running to succeed Gov. Henry McMaster, a fellow Republican who is barred by law from seeking a third term. Several other high-profile Republicans are also considering the race, but so far, no one has entered.

House

KY-06

Several central Kentucky Republicans have already said they want to succeed Rep. Andy Barr in the House even though Barr has yet to confirm reports that he's planning to run for the Senate.

The eventual Republican nominee will be favored to hold the 6th District, where the residents of Democratic-leaning Lexington are usually outvoted by the surrounding counties.

According to calculations by The Downballot, Donald Trump took this central Kentucky constituency by a wide 57-42 margin last year. Democrats, however, may still have an opening in a blue wave, as Gov. Andy Beshear carried the seat by double digits in both 2019 and 2023.

State Rep. Ryan Dotson was the first to say he'll seek the 6th District as long as Barr doesn't surprise everyone and run for reelection. Dotson told the Lexington Herald-Leader's Austin Horn that he was "committed to running," though he added that he "of course would want to make sure Andy comes out and commits to the Senate race first."

Three fellow Republican lawmakers—state Sen. Amanda Mays Bledsoe and state Reps. Deanna Gordon and Matt Lockett—also said they'd think about campaigning for an open seat. Former state Sen. Damon Thayer additionally told Horn he was interested but "a long way away from a decision." Thayer, as we note in our KY-Sen item above, has not ruled out running for the U.S. Senate either.

Horn also relays speculation that former state Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles, who was the runner-up in the 2023 primary for governor, could relaunch his electoral career here. Quarles, who now leads the Kentucky Community and Technical College System, did not reply to the reporter's inquiries.

On the Democratic side, state party executive director Morgan Eaves, who is a former member of the Richmond Board of Commissioners, says she's "always looking for additional opportunities to advocate for every Kentucky family."

Horn mentions some other prospective Democratic candidates as well:

• Former state Rep. Rocky Adkins

• State party chair Colmon Elridge

• Former state Rep. Cherlynn Stevenson

• Preston Worley, a former member of Lexington's governing body

Horn says that Stevenson "declined to comment" when asked about her interest, while the other three did not respond to his inquiries. Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman and state Rep. Chad Aull, finally, each said they're not going to run for Congress.

Judges

WI Supreme Court

Judge Susan Crawford enjoys a sizable financial advantage over former Attorney General Brad Schimel in April's pivotal race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court—so much so that, unlike her opponent, she was able to air campaign ads during the Super Bowl.

Crawford spent a total of $346,000 to run ads on Wisconsin-based Fox stations, including one spot during the game and others during pre- and post-game shows, reports the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Daniel Bice. Schimel, meanwhile, spent just $13,000 on some pre-game ads.

Crawford was able to put her message before such a coveted audience because she outraised Schimel $4.5 million to $2.7 million from Jan. 1 to Feb. 3, new disclosures show. As a result, she outspent her rival $3.6 million to $2.1 million. Yet despite spending more, she still holds a $3.1 million to $2.4 million lead in cash on hand.

A large portion of both candidates' hauls came from each state party, with Democrats sending $2 million to Crawford and Republicans giving $1.7 million to Schimel. Much of those funds, in turn, came from wealthy megadonors, like Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, who donated $500,000 to the Democrats, and shipping magnate Elizabeth Uihlein, who contributed $650,000 to the GOP.

To date, Crawford has raised $7.7 million versus $4.9 million for Schimel.

Mayors & County Leaders

Lehigh County, PA Executive

Former Allentown School Board Director Mike Welsh has announced a campaign for Lehigh County executive, which means Republicans will have a contested primary on May 20 for this Democratic-held office. He'll join former state Rep. Justin Simmons, who kicked off his campaign last week, while state Rep. Josh Siegel has the Democratic side to himself.

Pittsburgh, PA Mayor

Allegheny County Controller Corey O'Connor ended January with a considerable $680,000 to $240,000 cash on hand lead over Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey, an even wider gulf than the $40,000 edge the challenger enjoyed just a month ago.

O'Connor, who is challenging Gainey in the May 20 Democratic primary, took in $460,000 in January, with many of his donations coming from unions. The mayor, by contrast, raised just over $20,000 last month.

St. Louis, MO Mayor

St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones has earned the endorsement of EMILYs List, the influential abortion-rights group devoted to electing pro-choice Democratic women, ahead of a challenging reelection campaign. A recent poll showed Jones with poor approval ratings ahead of the March 4 nonpartisan primary, which will be conducted using an electoral system known as "approval voting."

Under this system, Jones and her three opponents will face off on one ballot, and voters can cast as many votes as there are candidates, with a maximum of one vote per candidate. The top two contenders will then advance to the April 8 general election, where voters will be limited to one choice. According to Ballotpedia, the only other city in America that uses approval voting is Fargo, North Dakota.

The first-term mayor's most familiar opponent is Alderwoman Cara Spencer, a fellow Democrat whom she faced off against four years ago. In the first round, Jones earned the support of 57% of voters while 46% of voters favored Spencer. (Thanks to approval voting, support for the four candidates in the race totaled 156%.)

The general election, however, was far closer, though Jones' 52-48 victory was still enough to make her the first Black woman to lead St. Louis. (Spencer is white.)

Two other candidates are running to lead this loyally Democratic city: Recorder of Deeds Michael Butler, who is a former chair of the Missouri Democratic Party, and businessman Andrew Jones, a Republican who has run twice before.

Jones has pointed to a drop in crime under her watch to argue she deserves another term even as she's acknowledged that "[p]erception takes a while to catch up to reality." Her opponents, though, say the city still isn't safe enough.

Jones' detractors also got another attack line last month over the city's response to a snowstorm, a response even the mayor acknowledged wasn't sufficient.

"I am sorry that our city services did not meet the mark during our winter storm," Jones said at a debate last month. The incumbent pledged to do better, but her opponents argued it was only the latest instance of her administration failing the city.

In our last Digest, we incorrectly identified Georgia Rep. Mike Collins as Doug Collins.