Morning Digest: Mitch McConnell, one of the most powerful leaders in Senate history, announces retirement

But despite his immense impact, Republicans hoping to succeed him want nothing to do with him

Kentucky Republican Mitch McConnell (credit: Mitch McConnell Facebook)

Leading Off

KY-Sen

Sen. Mitch McConnell announced Thursday that he would not seek an eighth term next year, a long-anticipated decision that the former Republican leader revealed on his 83rd birthday.

Former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron barely waited for McConnell to finish his speech to the Senate before launching his campaign to replace the longtime senator. Veteran political observer Al Cross believes Cameron had a heads-up about his old boss' plans, telling the Lexington Herald-Leader, "He's clearly the senator's protege, and the senator takes care of his protege."

Cameron, who would be the state's first Black member of Congress, has described McConnell as a "friend" and a "mentor," though he's unlikely to use such glowing words in the unfolding primary. Republican candidates across the country have long railed against the man they've depicted as the ultimate Washington insider, and Donald Trump has only been too happy to join in.

Trump notably responded to Cameron's loss to Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear in 2023 by arguing the Republican failed "because he couldn't alleviate the stench of Mitch McConnell." The senator became even more of a pariah in MAGA world this year after he voted against several of Trump's nominees. Donald Trump Jr. celebrated Thursday's news by tweeting, "Bye Mitch."

Rep. Andy Barr, who is likely to oppose Cameron, has already begun distancing himself from the man he also called his "mentor" just last year. The congressman—who once interned for McConnell—recently sent out a fundraising text linking to a video in which he "SLAMS McConnell for selling America out to China."

Barr said Thursday he'll decide "soon" on a Senate bid, though CBS reported last week that he's told donors he'll seek a promotion. The far-right Club for Growth has already begun airing ads attacking Barr, though that messaging hasn't yet linked him to McConnell.

Wealthy businessman Nate Morris is taking the McConnell hate even further, explicitly arguing that either Cameron or Barr would just be "a puppet" for the departing senator. Morris, though, has yet to decide if he'll run for Senate next year or enter the 2027 race to succeed Beshear, who will be termed out as governor. Other Republicans have also been talked about as possible Senate candidates, but most of the early chatter has focused on Cameron, Barr, and Morris.

The eventual Republican nominee should have little trouble prevailing in this dark-red state, especially since Beshear's team reiterated Thursday that he won't run. The only announced Democratic candidate is state House Minority Leader Pamela Stevenson, who launched her long-shot effort earlier this month.

But while no one from either party wants to be connected to McConnell, no one questions his role in transforming American politics.

Most retrospectives about his lengthy career focus on his 18 years as the GOP's leader in the Senate, especially his obstructionist tactics directed at Democratic presidents and successful efforts to reshape the federal judiciary.

But McConnell repeatedly had to win tough elections back home in Kentucky before he could become arguably the most powerful majority leader since Lyndon Johnson.

McConnell's first real success in the political world came in 1977, when he ran to serve as leader of Louisville's Jefferson County. The campaign marked a turning point after what he would describe as his "lost decade" to biographer Michael Tackett, whose 2024 book "The Price of Power" was a crucial resource for this piece.

McConnell, like LBJ and Joe Biden before him, coveted a seat in the Senate but understood he needed to win a lower office first before he could achieve that goal. After several false starts, he set his eyes on Judge-Executive Todd Hollenbach, a Democrat who appeared to be on the rise. (Hollenbach's post was executive rather than judicial.)

Few gave the challenger much of a chance at first in a community dominated by Democrats, and polls initially gave Hollenbach a massive 40-point lead. But McConnell raised a serious sum of money by making use of every connection he'd amassed, including his ties to a fundraiser named Meme Sweets whose family had founded the Louisville-based distillery Brown-Forman.

(McConnell, Tackett notes, recruited women for key positions on his campaigns at a time when most politicians rarely did so. Janet Mullens, who was instrumental in his first Senate race in 1984, would say decades later, "He intuitively knew that women worked a lot harder to prove themselves. He was woke before woke, I guess.")

McConnell managed to halve his polling deficit by August, but he still seemed to be impossibly behind. He was determined, though, to convince voters that Hollenbach needed to go, and he used his war chest to broadcast a memorable spot late in the campaign that featured a farmer cleaning a horse stall and blasting Hollenbach's claims that he'd cut taxes.

"Maybe Hollenbach ought to have my job, because in my job, I deal with that sort of stuff every day," the ad's star said before shoveling manure in the audience's direction. Critics blasted the message, with McConnell recounting to Tackett that former GOP Sen. Thruston Morton urged the campaign to "get that goddamn ad off the air." McConnell's team, though, learned that working-class voters loved it, an experience that taught him that "[i]f you can make 'em laugh at the other guy, he's gone."

That wasn't the only negative tactic McConnell pursued. Hollenbach, who was in the midst of a divorce, would tell the New Yorker's Jane Mayer in 2020 that McConnell had seized on his breakup to make an "an issue of my family life." (McConnell's first marriage would end a few years later.)

McConnell and Hollenbach also both coveted the endorsement of the influential Louisville Courier-Journal, a newspaper whose editorial staff ardently supported abortion rights at a time when a sizable portion of Republicans still did. While McConnell would tell Tackett that he'd never been pro-choice or presented himself as such, former editorial writer Keith Runyon remembered things differently.

"I know that he was, and I know people who know he was," Runyon would recount. "We were a very pro-choice newspaper and we got the message from Mitch, and we didn't tape interviews in those days, but I think anyone who was in that meeting with him in the fall of '77 would agree that he gave us every reason to believe he was pro-choice." McConnell went on to secure the paper's backing, a decision publisher Barry Bingham would eventually tell Runyon was "the worst mistake we ever made."

McConnell, though, would later acknowledge he'd hidden his true beliefs to secure the support of another powerful group, the Greater Louisville Central Labor Council. The Republican, who called for the passage of what he knew was a doomed bill to strengthen collective bargaining, would eventually admit, "It was one of the few things I've done in my political career I'm kind of ashamed of. It was an open pandering for labor support."

In the end, the once-hopeless McConnell won a 53-47 upset, and he immediately began preparing to run for the Senate. But while the new county executive had his sights on 1984, he first had to secure a second term in 1981.

McConnell wanted a massive win to set the stage for a statewide campaign, but he instead survived with a slender 51-48 victory against a little-known foe. That underwhelming win, which McConnell would later tell Tackett was "the worst race ever," convinced many politicos that he had no future outside Jefferson County, but he remained determined as ever to continue his rise.

Despite his weak showing, McConnell stuck with his plans to run for Senate in 1984, which meant taking on another seemingly invincible Democrat, two-term Sen. Walter "Dee" Huddleston.

National Republicans gave the challenger little chance in a state that remained firmly Democratic down the ballot even in years when it backed Republican candidates for president. They had good reason to be skeptical: Huddleston's campaign showed him with a 52-point lead as late as August, and McConnell had no better numbers to point to.

But McConnell found ways to start overcoming his massive deficit—including, once again, with strong fundraising and negative ads featuring animals. This time his four-legged cast members were bloodhounds who were depicted searching for Huddleston because he'd been "skipping votes but making an extra $50,000 giving speeches" at luxurious events.

These spots—which were devised by future Fox News executive Roger Ailes—helped McConnell make up crucial ground. However, he still went into the final weeks of the race staring at a 20-point deficit, and major Republicans still had little idea who he was. President Ronald Reagan urged voters to send "Mitch O'Connell" to the Senate, while Vice President George H.W. Bush implored them to back "Mayor McConnell of Louisville."

McConnell, though, further cut into his opponent's lead by portraying Huddleston as too liberal for conservative Kentucky. Republicans in Washington, D.C., who no longer saw the contest as unwinnable, came in with some late spending, while McConnell closed out his campaign with a new bloodhounds ad showing an actor playing Huddleston no longer able to outrun his record.

McConnell prevailed in a 49.9-49.5 squeaker as Reagan carried Kentucky 60-39 in his 49-state landslide against Walter Mondale. This "sweet victory" represented the sole Republican Senate pickup that year, something McConnell would point to as he argued he didn't owe his win to Reagan's coattails.

McConnell had finally achieved his dream of becoming a senator and, unlike so many other inhabitants of the upper chamber, he didn't harbor ambitions of climbing the next rung to the presidency. The Kentuckian, however, had to hold onto his office at a time when his state was still friendly to Democrats.

McConnell, as Tackett chronicles, utilized his familiar combination of strong fundraising and negative campaigning to keep his seat, including in some tough years for his party.

In his first reelection bid in 1990, the senator undermined the burgeoning candidacy of former Louisville Mayor Harvey Sloane by devising a rumor that Gov. Wallace Wilkinson would run against him in the Democratic primary.

He'd later acknowledge, "I knew if I could get that in print, which I did, even if Wilkinson tried to deny it, it would make it even harder." (Today we might say that McConnell played the proverbial Great Mentioner to get journalists chattering about Wilkinson, who never ran.) McConnell went on to beat Sloane 52-48.

Six years later, McConnell turned in his best performance to date with a 55-43 victory over former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear even as Bill Clinton was becoming the last Democrat to secure Kentucky's electoral votes. (Beshear bounced back in 2007 by winning the governorship, a post his son now holds.)

The Bluegrass State's hard shift to the GOP in the early 21st century later propelled McConnell to a 65-35 landslide over Lois Combs Weinberg in 2002, but that big win did not mark the end of competitive races for the senator.

McConnell hoped to become majority leader in 2006 following Tennessee Sen. Bill Frist's retirement, but while he did indeed become the top Republican in the Senate, that year's Democratic wave sent the GOP into the minority.

He had bigger worries in 2008, though, when he came surprisingly close to losing everything he'd aspired to.

While Democrats never treated Kentucky as a top-tier target that year, George W. Bush's unpopularity and the start of the Great Recession threatened to cost McConnell victory against a wealthy Democratic opponent named Bruce Lunsford. John McCain's 16-point victory over Barack Obama, though, proved too much for Lunsford to overcome, and the incumbent held on 53-47.

Republicans went into the 2014 cycle in a strong position to capture their first Senate majority in eight years, but Democrats were hoping they could hold on by taking down McConnell. Polls showed his national notoriety had left him unpopular at home, and Democrats felt they had a strong recruit in Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes.

McConnell first had to withstand a bruising primary against businessman Matt Bevin, a contest he won by an unimpressive 60-36 margin. (Bevin capitalized on his newfound fame to win the governorship the next year.) But while polls showed McConnell and Grimes locked in a tight race through the final month, Obama's weak standing helped propel the senator to a 56-41 win.

McConnell's final Democratic opponent, Marine veteran Amy McGrath, capitalized on his national infamy to raise massive amounts of money in 2020, but few observers this time believed he was in danger. The results bore out that belief, as McConnell secured his seventh and final term by a 58-38 margin.

Two months later, however, McConnell was demoted back down to minority leader after Democrats won a pair of runoffs in Georgia and remained there following a disappointing election cycle for the GOP in 2022. McConnell also faced mounting health issues and finally announced last year that he would step down from his party's leadership.

Governors

NJ-Gov

A new poll for a super PAC supporting former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli finds him leading conservative radio host Bill Spadea 42-13 in the June 10 Republican primary for governor of New Jersey.

The survey, conducted by GOP pollster Kellyanne Conway, shows three other candidates in the low single digits while 35% are undecided. Conway, notes the New Jersey Globe, sits on the board of Ciattarelli's PAC, called Kitchen Table Conservatives.

An Emerson College poll taken last month gave Ciattarelli a much smaller 26-13 lead on Spadea, with 47% of primary voters saying they had yet to make up their minds.

House

MI-10

Army veteran Alex Hawkins, who is also a bomb disposal officer in the Michigan National Guard, launched a campaign for the state's 10th Congressional District on Thursday, making him the first notable Democrat to seek the seat currently held by Republican Rep. John James. Hawkins previously ran for a competitive GOP-held state House last year but lost in the primary 53-47.

The biggest question, though, is whether James will run for a third term in the Detroit suburbs, or, as seems more likely, he'll pursue Michigan's open governorship. Semafor reporter Kadia Goba overheard James tell two people earlier this month he'll campaign for governor, though he's yet to publicly commit to anything.

Democrats could also host a contested primary. A few names have been mentioned, but the one that stands out the most is former Judge Carl Marlinga, who lost to James in both 2022 and 2024 and is reportedly considering a third try. Many Democrats, however, don't relish the prospect of a Marlinga redux, though a race against Hawkins would offer a stark contrast: Marlinga is in his late 70s while Hawkins is 30.

Judges

WI Supreme Court

Groups supporting liberal Judge Susan Crawford have outspent backers of former Republican Attorney General Brad Schimel $7 million to $4 million on the airwaves ahead of Wisconsin's April 1 election for the state Supreme Court, reports AdImpact. However, conservative groups have $7.7 in future ad time booked while the liberal side has made just $600,000 in reservations.

That disparity, however, is likely an artifact of timing, due in part to a new ad campaign from an organization funded by Elon Musk. That group, Building America's Future, is reportedly spending $1.6 million for a two-week flight of ads that began airing on Thursday, starting with a spot trying to paint Crawford as weak on crime.

As AdImpact notes, though, Democrats outspent Republicans in advertising in the last Supreme Court race in 2023. They've also enjoyed a fundraising advantage over the GOP, explains strategist Joe Zepecki on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, in large part because major donors don't trust the state Republican Party. Musk's involvement could erode that edge, but Crawford's supporters are certain to spend heavily.

How Dems are fighting to save the Wisconsin Supreme Court

Ballot Measures

ME Ballot

Conservative activists in Maine have placed a measure on the November ballot that would make voting more difficult by, among other things, requiring voters to present identification at the polls and forbidding the state from automatically mailing absentee ballots every year to voters who request to be on such a list. The proposal would also limit cities and towns to providing a single ballot drop box, regardless of their size.

Mayors & County Leaders

New York, NY Mayor

Gov. Kathy Hochul announced on Thursday that she would not remove New York City Mayor Eric Adams from his post, instead proposing legislation at both the city and state level that would provide added oversight of the mayor's office. She also suggested her stance could change in the future, saying that she would not oust Adams "at this time."

Were Hochul to remove Adams, Public Advocate Jumaane Williams would be elevated to the mayoralty. Williams twice ran against Hochul, for lieutenant governor in 2018 and then for governor in 2022—almost beating her the first time and getting trounced the second.

Apart from "personal animus" toward her one-time opponent, observes reporter Will Bredderman, a move by Hochul to elevate Williams would be "anathema to the city's business sector and constituencies that could swing against Hochul in either a primary or general." Hochul is up for reelection next year.

Ousting Adams now could also prompt a special election, but as The Downballot contributor Quinn Yeargain explains at Guaranteed Republics, such an election would not be triggered if Hochul were to wait until March 26. But Hochul doesn't have to delay that long, because she could first suspend Adams for 30 days—which would not require a special election—and only then remove him. If she were to take that route, she could act as early as Monday.

One widespread concern about a special election is that it could allow Hochul's predecessor, disgraced former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, to ride his name recognition to victory more easily than he could in the regularly scheduled Democratic primary, which is not until June 24.

Cuomo opponents, though, have been trying to recruit outgoing City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams (no relation to the mayor) as an alternative option. Now Adams is "seriously considering" a bid, reports Politico's Jeff Coltin, who adds that state Attorney General Tish James and District Council 37, a large labor union of municipal workers, are both encouraging her to run.

Obituaries

David Boren

David Boren, who for decades was one of the most powerful Democrats in conservative Oklahoma, died Thursday at the age of 83.

Boren was elected governor in 1974 as a reformer under the slogan "Boren Broom Brigade," and he went on to win the first of three Senate terms in 1978. He decisively prevailed in each of his general election campaigns even as the Republicans became stronger in his state, capping his political career with an 83-17 blowout in 1990 that marked the last time a Democrat won a Senate race in Oklahoma.

Boren resigned in 1994 to become president of the University of Oklahoma and was succeeded by Jim Inhofe—the same Republican he'd easily defeated for governor 20 years earlier. Boren's son, Dan Boren, went on to win a seat in the House in 2004, but he retired in 2012 without fulfilling Democratic hopes for a statewide campaign.

The elder Boren stepped down as OU president in 2018, and news broke the following year that a student had accused him of sexual harassment. Boren denied the allegations and the school never released its report from its internal investigation.

Oklahoma Voice has much more on Boren's long career in its obituary.