I don't know if this *too* downballot, but we do have some competitive races for State Rep in my area. In the 25th Middlesex (Cambridge), Evan MacKay is challenging 6 term rep Marjorie Decker. In the 27th Middlesex (Somerville), Kathleen Hornby is challenging 2 term rep Ericka Uyterhoeven.
The common thread linking both races is reforming the State House, whose rules concentrate power in the Speaker and keep many proceedings secret. This includes votes on whether to advance legislation, meaning members can kill a bill in committee while publicly claiming they supported it.
Ericka has supported reform, which earned her a challenge from a State House insider (Hornby has worked as staffer for the last decade) who says she will be more effective in passing legislation and getting money for Somerville. There's also some lingering animosity against Our Revolution, which backed Ericka, and that may help Hornby win. (Our Revolution Somerville and Democratic Socialists of America tried to take over the City Government a couple years ago, which failed so catastrophically that the organization, which once was able to provide considerable boots on the ground for its endorsees, essentially disbanded.)
In Cambridge, the challenger is the pro-reform candidate. MacKay is also aided by Decker's duplicity on the hyper-local issue of keeping Memorial Drive (which runs along the Charles River) free of cars on the weekends. The road has long been closed to automobile traffic on Sundays during the Summer, but during the pandemic this was expanded to included Saturdays as well. When the decision was eventually reversed, Decker said in community meetings that she supported extending the Saturday closures, but behind the scenes was lobbying the powers that be to get road reopened to cars. Needless to say, this angered a number of folks when it came to light.
what amounts of money have been raised?? Frankly, beating incumbents usually cost a great deal;are the challengers funded adequately??.. And yes these are indeed the down ballot races that draw me to this site
At least in my district (Somerville), there's been significantly more mail for the incumbent. This is in part from the Massachusetts Teachers Association, which endorsed Ericka.
Citrus Heights, CA Mayor Resigns - Moves to Kentucky
Mayor Bret Daniels, a Republican, has abruptly resigned from the job citing the CA State Legislature's evil agenda. This includes the new law that bans transgender children & teenagers from being required to notify their parents.
He's going to be living in Corbin, KY, quite a change from Citrus Heights. Members of the Citrus Heights City Council aren't happy with what Mayor Daniels has done.
CITRUS HEIGHTS — The city of Citrus Heights will be without a mayor starting this weekend.
In a surprise move, current Mayor Bret Daniels said he is resigning effective Saturday and is moving immediately to Kentucky, calling California's politics evil.
The mayor's moving van was outside his home Thursday morning. He had previously announced he'd wait until the end of his term to leave the state.
"Financially, it was going to be kind of crushing and whatnot, and so out of a bigger concern for my wife and daughter, we made the decision to go ahead and finish up now," Daniels said.
Daniels said he is leaving California because he feels "evilness has permeated the state legislature."
I asked the mayor about why he used the word evil.
"There's a lot of words you can use. You can use 'bad,' 'I don't like it,' 'not for me,' but 'evil' has a sinister side to it," I told Daniels.
"It is. It is," Daniels said. "And I feel that that is the case."
It has nothing to do with the fact he's run for 94 different offices in the last 4 years and keeps losing everything except re-election to his council seat...
That's a valid point! Supposedly the Citrus Heights City Council is going to be meeting next month to discuss the replacement of the Mayor but I have no idea what they will discuss.
It's really not a good idea to leave this close to the end of the tenure as Mayor. On the other hand, John Boehner resigned a tad over a year in his final term in the House.
I believe the term for mayors in Citrus Heights ends every presidential year but I'd have to confirm this.
That said, the city itself is not really high profile compared to others in California. Given the now ex-mayor is out of office, it would be interesting to see if there would be a competitive mayoral race that could benefit Democrats after the interim mayor is chosen.
The local citizenry is now much better off..using words like 'evil' tells me that dude has real issues ( not to mention, dude moved to Kentucky..??. WTF??)
Yeah, going from Citrus Heights of all places to a place in Kentucky nobody has even heard of sounds to me like he belongs there. Maybe he ended up getting in touch with friends there and found his calling.
61-34 Trump in WV is actually an excellent result for Democrats, since Trump won it 69-30 in 2020.
At the very least, that would definitely be enough for Harris to win Monongalia County and thus break the streak of Republicans winning every county in WV for three elections in a row.
12 point shift to the left! Implies 16 point national win, 425-113 electoral college margin ;-). Joking of course, but people try to do this stuff whenever a poll comes out with Harris apparently shedding 10 points in CA or NY (always with a lot of undecideds...) Agreed, I do think Monongalia is easily flipping this year. I feel like Jefferson and then Kanawha are going to flip eventually, but doubtful this year.
There seems to be a longstanding pattern of polls in uncompetitive states consistently being too favorable to the weaker party. California statewide polls almost always overstate GOP support, for example. I suspect that this comes from people who just answer randomly.
As to be expected, the voters of Appalachia hating Democrats for supporting and implementing the same welfare programs many of them need to live off of on a daily basis.
Until WV becomes a more attractive state for new residents to move in, it's going to remain in red territory for years.
However, the main issue for Glenn Elliott in particular is name recognition. The WV Democratic Party needs to have a more robust GOTV and organizing system. Right now, from my understanding it doesn't appear to have this. Unless there's something I'm missing.
Yes but important to emphasize the findings of what has been reporting in the polling. It's got more to do with name recognition for Elliott than anything else, not just the fact that Jim Justice has an advantage in the race.
Elliott has in fact been running an all-55 county Senate race which is still going on. He has in fact gotten slow but progressive traction. The main issue though is WV residents knowing him as opposed to any favorability vs. unfavorability factors.
Elliott is running a truly underdog race and one that is actually commendable considering he needs to built name recognition statewide. I have in fact been covering this race on DK and do know from my own research that Elliott is campaigning his ass off. However, in the WV market which is primarily rural, getting name recognition without support from the DSCC and other notable organizations makes it a tough slog for Elliott.
With Elliott and Williams, the reaction wasn’t so polarized – it was that respondents statewide don’t feel like they know them well.
Elliott was regarded favorably by 27% of respondents and unfavorably by 17% — but 57% said they are not sure.
Williams was viewed favorably by 25% of respondents and unfavorably by 18% — but, again, 57% said they are not sure.
“If you look at both Glenn Elliott and Steve Williams, they both are unknown,” said Rex Repass, president of Research America, which produces The West Virginia Poll.
“It’s a difficult, steep hill when you’ve only got a short time between now and Nov. 5 to introduce yourself and run against a popular governor.”
Win or lose, I think Glenn Elliott has a bright future in WV Democratic Party politics. Depending on how much he's able to chip away at Jim Justice's lead in the polls and eventual margin of votes this November, he still has a shot at potentially running in other statewide races in 2026. Not sure if he wants to make another run for the Senate by challenging Senator Shelley Moore Capito but it may be easier for Elliott to be elected at the state level as opposed to the federal level (House or Senate).
I think they're new. They ALWAYS post 400 LV, and usually are in the field any where from 2 weeks to a month. They're posting a lot of polls, and the polls seem to swing pretty widely across states, etc. I'd not put a lot of stock in any single result, nor trend. Just, as they say, "add it to the pile"
Not convinced it's even up to the low standard of 'add it to the pile'; I'm convinced that polling now is more of a true joke than actually empirical scientific evidence(I am a retired political campaign manager who had million dollar budgets with reliable pollsters that were well paid; I think these days you could blindfold yourself, and throw darts at a dartboard and trust the results equally)
Bay Area prices are still $4.00+. However, they are likely going to slowly but progressively drop. Perhaps the Fed rate cuts next month (which are to be expected) might make an impact on gas prices going down.
I don't know if this *too* downballot, but we do have some competitive races for State Rep in my area. In the 25th Middlesex (Cambridge), Evan MacKay is challenging 6 term rep Marjorie Decker. In the 27th Middlesex (Somerville), Kathleen Hornby is challenging 2 term rep Ericka Uyterhoeven.
The common thread linking both races is reforming the State House, whose rules concentrate power in the Speaker and keep many proceedings secret. This includes votes on whether to advance legislation, meaning members can kill a bill in committee while publicly claiming they supported it.
Ericka has supported reform, which earned her a challenge from a State House insider (Hornby has worked as staffer for the last decade) who says she will be more effective in passing legislation and getting money for Somerville. There's also some lingering animosity against Our Revolution, which backed Ericka, and that may help Hornby win. (Our Revolution Somerville and Democratic Socialists of America tried to take over the City Government a couple years ago, which failed so catastrophically that the organization, which once was able to provide considerable boots on the ground for its endorsees, essentially disbanded.)
In Cambridge, the challenger is the pro-reform candidate. MacKay is also aided by Decker's duplicity on the hyper-local issue of keeping Memorial Drive (which runs along the Charles River) free of cars on the weekends. The road has long been closed to automobile traffic on Sundays during the Summer, but during the pandemic this was expanded to included Saturdays as well. When the decision was eventually reversed, Decker said in community meetings that she supported extending the Saturday closures, but behind the scenes was lobbying the powers that be to get road reopened to cars. Needless to say, this angered a number of folks when it came to light.
Nothing is too downballot for a site literally named The Downballot!
Maybe someone can tell us about Probate Court elections in Connecticut (and yes, those do exist)!
what amounts of money have been raised?? Frankly, beating incumbents usually cost a great deal;are the challengers funded adequately??.. And yes these are indeed the down ballot races that draw me to this site
At least in my district (Somerville), there's been significantly more mail for the incumbent. This is in part from the Massachusetts Teachers Association, which endorsed Ericka.
With zero knowledge of the demographics of the district; all things be equal, if the challenger is being outspent, I'll bet on the incumbent
Agreed; but of course there have been various famous exceptions to that rule.
Too downballot? I remember a discussion of actual Dog Catchers on SSP! Thanks for the report!
Citrus Heights, CA Mayor Resigns - Moves to Kentucky
Mayor Bret Daniels, a Republican, has abruptly resigned from the job citing the CA State Legislature's evil agenda. This includes the new law that bans transgender children & teenagers from being required to notify their parents.
He's going to be living in Corbin, KY, quite a change from Citrus Heights. Members of the Citrus Heights City Council aren't happy with what Mayor Daniels has done.
https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/citrus-heights-mayor-who-called-california-politics-evil-resigns-amid-kentucky-move/
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CITRUS HEIGHTS — The city of Citrus Heights will be without a mayor starting this weekend.
In a surprise move, current Mayor Bret Daniels said he is resigning effective Saturday and is moving immediately to Kentucky, calling California's politics evil.
The mayor's moving van was outside his home Thursday morning. He had previously announced he'd wait until the end of his term to leave the state.
"Financially, it was going to be kind of crushing and whatnot, and so out of a bigger concern for my wife and daughter, we made the decision to go ahead and finish up now," Daniels said.
Daniels said he is leaving California because he feels "evilness has permeated the state legislature."
I asked the mayor about why he used the word evil.
"There's a lot of words you can use. You can use 'bad,' 'I don't like it,' 'not for me,' but 'evil' has a sinister side to it," I told Daniels.
"It is. It is," Daniels said. "And I feel that that is the case."
It has nothing to do with the fact he's run for 94 different offices in the last 4 years and keeps losing everything except re-election to his council seat...
There's no provision for having an Acting Mayor if one resigns, dies or becomes incapacitated?
That's a valid point! Supposedly the Citrus Heights City Council is going to be meeting next month to discuss the replacement of the Mayor but I have no idea what they will discuss.
It's really not a good idea to leave this close to the end of the tenure as Mayor. On the other hand, John Boehner resigned a tad over a year in his final term in the House.
They are better off without this crazy person
Yeah, I hope the door doesn't hit him on the way out. One less Republican politician in the State of California we have to worry about.
Next month means early September, right after Labor Day? That would be acceptable. Waiting an entire month? That seems untenable.
I believe the term for mayors in Citrus Heights ends every presidential year but I'd have to confirm this.
That said, the city itself is not really high profile compared to others in California. Given the now ex-mayor is out of office, it would be interesting to see if there would be a competitive mayoral race that could benefit Democrats after the interim mayor is chosen.
The local citizenry is now much better off..using words like 'evil' tells me that dude has real issues ( not to mention, dude moved to Kentucky..??. WTF??)
Yeah, going from Citrus Heights of all places to a place in Kentucky nobody has even heard of sounds to me like he belongs there. Maybe he ended up getting in touch with friends there and found his calling.
I know Fabrizio Ward is Trump's pollster. Is its record good enough to take their numbers seriously at all?
West Virginia:
https://wvmetronews.com/2024/08/30/west-virginia-poll-solid-leads-for-morrisey-and-justice-in-upcoming-election/
61/34 Trump
62/28 Justice
49/35 Morrisey
No surprises
61-34 Trump in WV is actually an excellent result for Democrats, since Trump won it 69-30 in 2020.
At the very least, that would definitely be enough for Harris to win Monongalia County and thus break the streak of Republicans winning every county in WV for three elections in a row.
12 point shift to the left! Implies 16 point national win, 425-113 electoral college margin ;-). Joking of course, but people try to do this stuff whenever a poll comes out with Harris apparently shedding 10 points in CA or NY (always with a lot of undecideds...) Agreed, I do think Monongalia is easily flipping this year. I feel like Jefferson and then Kanawha are going to flip eventually, but doubtful this year.
There seems to be a longstanding pattern of polls in uncompetitive states consistently being too favorable to the weaker party. California statewide polls almost always overstate GOP support, for example. I suspect that this comes from people who just answer randomly.
True but every new poll shows a distinct shift; even from fox polling and Rasmussen(the one that has nothing to do with Scott Rasmussen)
All joking aside.. If that margin holds nationwide, Harris wins North Carolina.. Game..Set..Match
Monongalia County also has West Virginia University, which I believe is the most notable university in the state.
As to be expected, the voters of Appalachia hating Democrats for supporting and implementing the same welfare programs many of them need to live off of on a daily basis.
They'll accept Obama care..won't vote for it though
Until WV becomes a more attractive state for new residents to move in, it's going to remain in red territory for years.
However, the main issue for Glenn Elliott in particular is name recognition. The WV Democratic Party needs to have a more robust GOTV and organizing system. Right now, from my understanding it doesn't appear to have this. Unless there's something I'm missing.
Yes but important to emphasize the findings of what has been reporting in the polling. It's got more to do with name recognition for Elliott than anything else, not just the fact that Jim Justice has an advantage in the race.
Elliott has in fact been running an all-55 county Senate race which is still going on. He has in fact gotten slow but progressive traction. The main issue though is WV residents knowing him as opposed to any favorability vs. unfavorability factors.
Elliott is running a truly underdog race and one that is actually commendable considering he needs to built name recognition statewide. I have in fact been covering this race on DK and do know from my own research that Elliott is campaigning his ass off. However, in the WV market which is primarily rural, getting name recognition without support from the DSCC and other notable organizations makes it a tough slog for Elliott.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
With Elliott and Williams, the reaction wasn’t so polarized – it was that respondents statewide don’t feel like they know them well.
Elliott was regarded favorably by 27% of respondents and unfavorably by 17% — but 57% said they are not sure.
Williams was viewed favorably by 25% of respondents and unfavorably by 18% — but, again, 57% said they are not sure.
“If you look at both Glenn Elliott and Steve Williams, they both are unknown,” said Rex Repass, president of Research America, which produces The West Virginia Poll.
“It’s a difficult, steep hill when you’ve only got a short time between now and Nov. 5 to introduce yourself and run against a popular governor.”
I will say on a side note:
Win or lose, I think Glenn Elliott has a bright future in WV Democratic Party politics. Depending on how much he's able to chip away at Jim Justice's lead in the polls and eventual margin of votes this November, he still has a shot at potentially running in other statewide races in 2026. Not sure if he wants to make another run for the Senate by challenging Senator Shelley Moore Capito but it may be easier for Elliott to be elected at the state level as opposed to the federal level (House or Senate).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-29/election-2024-poll-harris-leads-or-ties-with-trump-in-swing-states
Morning Consult/Bloomberg
Wisconsin
53/44 Harris
Pennsylvania
51/48 Harris
Nevada
50/46 Harris
Georgia
50/47 Harris
Michigan
49/47 Harris
Arizona
Tie
North Carolina
Tie
Likely voters, 8/23 - 8/26
I'd be shocked if Harris won WI by 9.
Trends are the thing though
Maybe. If the numbers turn out to really be garbage, the trends could also be phantoms.
Could be by anywhere from 3-5% points as far as a Harris win is concerned.
https://www.activote.net/cruz-extends-lead-in-texas/
Ted Cruz up 10 in Texas
55/45. Likely voters 8/13- 29
Pollster is Activote.
I haven't heard of them before. Do you know anything about them?
Activote has had very bizarre results the past month or so. Guess we'll see how accurate they are in 67 days!
Pollster is one I've never heard of.. Has anyone else??
I think they're new. They ALWAYS post 400 LV, and usually are in the field any where from 2 weeks to a month. They're posting a lot of polls, and the polls seem to swing pretty widely across states, etc. I'd not put a lot of stock in any single result, nor trend. Just, as they say, "add it to the pile"
Not convinced it's even up to the low standard of 'add it to the pile'; I'm convinced that polling now is more of a true joke than actually empirical scientific evidence(I am a retired political campaign manager who had million dollar budgets with reliable pollsters that were well paid; I think these days you could blindfold yourself, and throw darts at a dartboard and trust the results equally)
https://www.flchamber.com/new-florida-chamber-statewide-poll-shows-donald-trump-rick-scott-begin-2024-general-election-campaigns-in-florida-leading-their-democratic-opponents-while-governor-ron-desantis-remains-popular-with/?amp=1
Florida Chamber of Commerce poll
52/45 Trump
51/44 Scott
Likely voters 8/15-26
Epic MRA poll 8/23-26 Likely voters
https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/presidential-race-in-michigan-remains-tight-new-poll-shows/
Michigan
47/46 Trump
46/42 Slotkin
Flooding the market with response polls from the DNC; speaking only for myself, grain of Salt to all
That's a regular pollster that only polls Michigan. In the past they've had a GOP lean IIRC.
Thanks👍.. Republican poll with Slotkin +4..add Democratic Gov ground game/machine..Looking good
Cool
Just filled up my tank to go on my trip over the weekend.. I paid $2.90/ gal..how about you all??..🤔
$3.99 in Van Nuys CA. That is a low price compared to the last couple of years in California.
Prices are going down after Labor Day, which will help for my travels and maybe the political mood about inflation.
Bay Area prices are still $4.00+. However, they are likely going to slowly but progressively drop. Perhaps the Fed rate cuts next month (which are to be expected) might make an impact on gas prices going down.