Morning Digest: Nominate him now 'or I'm going to get it later,' threatens New York Republican

A rich businessman warns the GOP that he might nuke their special election candidate if it's not him

New York Republican Anthony Constantino (credit: Anthony Constantino campaign site)

Leading Off

NY-21

Wealthy sticker kingpin (not a sobriquet we've used before) Anthony Constantino is now bluntly warning Republican leaders that if they don't nominate him for the expected special election to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik, he'll run in next year's primary.

"I'm either going to get it now or I'm going to get it later," Constantino told the Times Union's Lucy Hodgman. "Even the [chairs] that don't like me are going to have to vote for me because I’m just going to come back and get it in 2026. That would really be tragic for everybody involved, including me, because I would have to waste my money fighting Republicans."

If Constantino's "nice nomination you got there, shame if something happened to it" routine doesn't have the effect he's hoping for, there's a chance he could actually cause some trouble. Constantino just filed a new FEC report showing he's already dumped $2.6 million of his own money into his campaign account. It could be a sign he's prepared to spend those funds, but of course, it could also just be more bluster.

His threats, though, probably won't be received all that well. One rival candidate, former Newsmax host Joe Pinion, didn't rule out running in the primary as well, but he alluded to Constantino's bullying when he told Hodgman that anyone engaging in such tactics is "perhaps demonstrating that they lack the depth of discernment necessary to be a member of Congress in the first place."

Constantino is one of a large number of Republicans—but not one of the reported frontrunners—who are eager to succeed Stefanik, whose nomination as Donald Trump's U.N. ambassador has yet to be scheduled for a final vote. It's likewise unclear when the 15 local GOP chairs whose counties make up New York's 21st District will settle on a candidate.

Democrats have yet to pick a nominee either, though one county leader tells Hodgman the party will "be ready to select a candidate at the time of Stefanik's resignation." Republicans are favored to hold this conservative district in upstate New York's North Country, but it bears some similarities, both political and demographic, with the deep red legislative district Democrats just flipped in a huge upset in Iowa.

Special elections are back, baby!

Senate

NC-Sen

Former North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the self-described "Black Nazi" who lost last year's race for governor in a 55-40 landslide, says he isn't interested in another political campaign.

"I will not run next year, nor do I have plans to seek elected office in the future," Robinson said in a statement on Friday. "Until we change the hearts and souls of those inside the political arena, it is unlikely the political process itself will undergo any meaningful change."

Shortly after his defeat last year, Robinson didn't entirely rule out challenging Sen. Thom Tillis in next year's Republican primary, though he sounded unenthusiastic about the prospect.

Governors

MA-Gov

Republican state Sen. Peter Durant, who flipped a longtime Democratic seat in a 2023 special election, says he's considering a bid against Democratic Gov. Maura Healey and will "likely decide" by "late spring," according to WBUR's Simon Rios.

Separately, Politico's Kelly Garrity identifies two other Republicans, former Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito and state Senate Minority Leader Bruce Tarr, as potential candidates "who haven't said much publicly whose names still come up in the conservation." Tarr, however, responded to Durant's interest by praising him as someone who could "bring a lot to the table as a candidate for higher office."

Healey won her first term in 2022 by defeating Republican Geoff Diehl by a 64-35 margin, and she hasn't looked particularly vulnerable. Durant and other members of Massachusetts' long-struggling Republican Party, though, argue that Healey is beatable due to widespread problems with the state's shelter system for its homeless population.

SD-Gov

Republican Gov. Larry Rhoden, who was elevated from the lieutenant governorship just a week ago, insists he hasn't made a decision about running for a full term next year, telling reporters on Wednesday, "I have no reason to not be honest with you."

At least one other notable Republican, though, seems to be preparing a campaign. Rep. Dusty Johnson, who has not ruled out a bid, "is believed to be gearing up for a gubernatorial run of his own," reports the Dakota Scout.

House

TN-05

Federal law enforcement officials may be preparing to abandon an investigation into Republican Rep. Andy Ogles, reports NewsChannel 5's Phil Williams, after Nashville-based prosecutors withdrew from the case. That leaves the case in the hands of a prosecutor at the Washington, D.C., headquarters of the Department of Justice, which has been dropping cases against allies of Donald Trump ever since he was sworn in for a second term.

Ogles acknowledged last year that he was under FBI investigation over alleged campaign finance violations. He's also the target of a probe by the House Ethics Committee, which was unveiled last month.

Mayors & County Leaders

Miami, FL Mayor & FL-28

Rep. Carlos Gimenez was just easily reelected to a third term in Congress, but South Florida politicos are wondering if the Republican will leave the House behind to run for mayor of Miami this fall.

The Miami Herald's Doug Hanks wrote on social media Thursday that there's "[l]ots of talk" that Gimenez could seek to replace termed-out Mayor Francis Suarez, a cryptocurrency fanboy who briefly sought the GOP nomination for president in 2023.

Several other local politicians are considering running in the officially nonpartisan November contest for what another Herald writer, Tess Riski, recently characterized as a "ceremonial part-time position."

However, few of these would-be candidates are as prominent as Gimenez, who served as mayor of Miami-Dade County—which is home both to the city of Miami as well as other communities—before winning his House seat in 2020. (Somewhat confusingly, Florida counties often call their leaders mayors instead of executives.)

This isn't the first time, though, that Gimenez has considered leaving D.C. to return to local office. In 2023, the congressman talked about challenging Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, the Democrat who'd succeeded him three years earlier. But Gimenez never went forward with a campaign for his old job, and Levine Cava went on to decisively beat several underfunded foes in what proved to be one of the few bright spots for Florida Democrats last year.

Miami's filing deadline isn't until Sept. 20, so it may be a while before Gimenez makes his plans known. But if decides he wants to be a mayor again, his party would be favored to hold his 28th Congressional District without him. According to calculations from The Downballot, Donald Trump carried this constituency in a 62-37 landslide last year, a massive swing to the right from his 53-47 performance four years earlier.

Northampton County, PA Executive

Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure, who recently announced his retirement, has endorsed County Controller Tara Zrinski in the race to succeed him that will take place later this year. Zrinski is one of two Democrats looking to replace McClure along with Amy Cozze, the former director of elections for this swingy county in eastern Pennsylvania's Lehigh County. County Councilman Tom Giovanni is the lone Republican running so far.

Other Races

VA-LG

Rich Anderson, the chair of the Virginia Republican Party, said on Friday that he would not run for lieutenant governor this year after briefly floating the idea. Two other Republicans are already running for this post, which is open because incumbent Winsome Earle-Sears is running for governor: conservative radio host John Reid and Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity.