IA-04: The Republican establishment closed ranks behind Rep. Randy Feenstra on Monday, condemning his former primary challenger Kevin Virgil for urging supporters to split their tickets between Trump and IA-04 Democratic candidate Ryan Melton. Updated this post with links to statements from many GOP groups or prominent individuals:
Feenstra beat Melton in 2022 by about a 67-30 margin. I am skeptical that Virgil's endorsement means much but if Melton significantly improves (to, say, 40%) that would underscore Feenstra's potential weakness in a 2026 primary.
Yet another reason why they need to have primaries earlier in the year. Yes I get it's "tradition" for all these northeastern states to have September primaries, but that leaves very little time for the general election and doesn't allow wounds to be healed. This would not be the first time that such contention would be costly in an election. Al D'Amato held on to his Senate seat in 1992 for one more term largely because New York Democrats were too divided. Likewise in 1972, Tom Salmon won the Governorship of Vermont in what is still to this day considered THE biggest upset in Green Mountain State political history largely because Vermont Republicans were divided between Fred Hackett and Jim Jeffords.
Ppp has new polls out of Florida and Texas that are very good for Democratic candidates and make a decent case for them to be viable for Senate pickups.. Though still under dogs
Here's my take on the current state of the race. My baseline for this election is 2020, on the assumption that most people will vote the same as they did in 2020, but that some factors have changed which might move smallish numbers of voters one way or the other. In this case positive numbers mean more favorable to Democrats and negative numbers to Republicans. “1” does not mean 1% of the vote, it means an indeterminate number of voters.
Trump 2020 v. Trump 2024: +1 to +2. Trump is no longer the incumbent, which is likely to hurt him to some extent. Since 2020, Trump instigated the 1-6 coup attempt, was convicted of 34 felonies, and has become even more unhinged and incoherent. Vance also appears to be a drag on the ticket whereas Pence wasn’t.
Biden 2020 v. Harris 2024: Uncertain, -1 to +1. Harris’ image and some issue positions from 2020 appear to make her less positioned to pick up swing voters than Biden was. On the other hand, she seems to have generated a level of popular excitement that Biden didn’t have, which might make it easier to activate lower-propensity voters.
Issue environment: +1. The abortion issue has been helping Democrats, and is going to be front and center again. Also, Trump is saddled with the unpopular Project 2025 which is more of a focal point than anything from 2020. Dem Senate candidates have generally been polling very well, which also suggests a favorable issue environment.
Economy: -1 to 0. People are still grumpy about high prices (although inflation itself is mostly back to normal) and high interest rates, although the economy issue didn’t appear to help the GOP much in 2022. The weak 2020 economy probably helped Biden. Low unemployment will help Harris.
Campaign/mobilization issues: +1. Democrats didn’t do rallies or canvass in 2020 because of the pandemic. Being able to do this again should boost Harris. Harris also has more money to run ads, more field offices, and apparently more volunteers.
Random events: -2 to +2. The closer we get to the election, the more likely that this will end up around zero, but there’s still always the possibility of an event (financial crisis, public Trump meltdown, etc) that could shift the vote a few points either way.
Aggregate: -1 to +7. Trump’s best case is probably narrowly winning the electoral college while losing the popular vote again. Harris’ best case may be something close to 2008 where she wins all the swing states with room to spare and picks up a state or two that wasn’t supposed to be in play. The most likely result appears to be something very close to 2020 but with Harris maybe doing a little better in the swing states. Basically I don't agree with the consensus that the election is a tossup. I think Harris is a modest favorite.
Also, I think Trump being the GOP Presidential Nominee again after losing re-election back in 2020 is not exactly an inspired choice if independents, moderates and swing voters are to consider anyone else a choice besides Kamala Harris.
It's very unusual choice to have a sitting president lose re-election and then make another run for POTUS.
It’s also very unusual to have a candidate that’s never conceded that he actually lost, and has convinced the lion’s share of his voters that he didn’t actually lose. Trump’s solution for washing off the loser stink is to pretend he’s never been a loser and to get everyone else to go along with it.
True although not conceding that he lost is not the only issue that Independents, moderates and swing voters use against Trump. It's the shear nature of actually deciding to run for the presidency again and not really offering anything different.
That's why Trump isn't going to win over these voters. He's making no effort to do so.
I'm trying to comprehend some of these Harris-Alsobrooks gaps. 16% of the MD electorate are Harris-Hogan voters?! AND A MAJORITY OF THEM ARE DEMOCRATS?!
Hogan was a very popular Governor and was (and still is) able to fool a lot of white suburbanites - especially in the Baltimore suburbs - into thinking that he's a moderate. Like it or not, there are still quite a few people out there who still believe in the mythical creature that is the "moderate Republican." Especially anti tax suburbanites. I've long said that if the Republican Party genuinely moderated a bit on social issues, that we Democrats would be in trouble nationally.
Agreed.. I see no American electorate where Sherrod Brown wins in Ohio and Alsobrooks loses in Maryland on the same day.. In the end; I'll confidently bet alsobrooks wins by at least 10%(personally, I think she wins by more)
This polling is flawed. It only mentions a swing voter category for voters 50+ years old. I would think swing voters are not age specific.
Also, Alsobrooks has a slight lead over Hogan with voters younger than 50. This could be where she will be able to get leverage age demographics wise. Alsobrooks also in this poll leads black voters by a significant margin with such voters in the 18-49 age range as well as an overwhelming margin with black voters 50+ years of age.
All in all, this poll shows Alsobrooks has the edge in key demographic voters she needs if she wants to win the MD-SEN race.
Per the US Census, in Maryland there are 1,820,472 black voters, which are roughly 29% of the total votes in the state.
Also, there are 3,158,811 women in the state which comprise of 51% of the voters in the state, thereby being the majority of residents in the state based on gender.
Of course, Hogan is more of a moderate Republican in Maryland standards but if he's behind Alsobrooks in both black and women voters, then he's certainly not getting the edge.
FYI, based on what you were saying about the crosstabs, I did feel it was worth looking at the population of Maryland and seeing what insights it would be able to provide me in the Senate race.
Granted that this AARP poll did sample more female voters than male voters, as it turns out women have a slight majority representation in MD.
Cinde Warmington is correct. Oxycontin was initially approved only for cancer pain. Data from the pivotal trials found limited adverse side effects and low risk of addiction in this patient group. For patients with intractable cancer pain, oxycontin was a miracle drug. As Warmington points out, and the world has seen, Purdue Pharma later pushed aggressively to expand the marketing of the drug while obscuring its addictive potential in patients with pain not caused by cancer. I know this history from brief employment with a med-comms agency with a client roster that included Purdue in the early days of oxycontin.
Just in case, I think Gov. Moore & Obama should headline a rally for Alsobrooks in Baltimore suburbs or something to shore her up; can't take any chances!! 💙🇺🇲
Especially in either Howard County or Anne Arundel County. Unfortunately too many people still believe in the mythical creature that is the "moderate Republican." Alsobrooks, Moore, and Obama need to make the case that a vote for Hogan no matter how "moderate" he pretends to be is a vote for Trump and McConnell. And of course voters have to care.
As nice as that would be, ita not real. POTUS is driving turnout, not governor races. No one is just going to simply NOT vote for president because of of the gubernatorial candidates is a whackjob.
I disagree.. Robinson is the one candidate that is so toxic, that I can see him motivating more Democratic turnout, while at the same time depressing what I call 'sane Republicans' from voting or actually voting Democratic (think Nikki Haley voters that still turned out to vote against Trump long after the Republican nomination was decided)
I agree with that, but someone who doesn't really like Trump but would probably vote for him might stay home if there's nothing downballot to impel him to vote.
Proposing special signing a bill, to become law to protect detention camps female prisoners from being raped, is the most correct thing. Because the damage, truly mental, always weighs heavily, in the soul, in the heart and also in the body, and the presence from that pain, when female prisoners, they have to go through, punishment, from torture to allowed order, to serve investigation and interrogation, obligatory..... for justice, when they have to comply, for the process, to serve the investigation and interrogation.
And there is no, pain, other than, to be able to survive the reality, when they have to receive, prison sentences from the prisons, for their violation, of the law.... earnestly, please do not let them, receive any more, punishment, please do not, as, allow to happen, from the law, to be added to the female prisons, the punishment of sexual abuse,
recommend to the President of the United States, the highest penalty, for the act, of violating the law, from women's prisons, of raping women, for the reason of abuse of power , when they were on prison duty Warden , while they were in charge of managing prisoners, , and they have thrived, (rape of female prisoners), because from the media portals, it is not easy to access the prisons..... if the criminal procedure code always does the job, adequately punishing, the targets of raping female prisoners,.....
Preventing the rape of women from prisons, as such, must become law, lest abuse of power and injustice persist.
It's not only women who are raped in prisons. I don't think the issue is the lack of laws against it. It's that not enough is done to prevent it. And most of the problems are at private or state prisons, not federal ones, so I'm not sure how much the federal government can do about it, other than by more aggressively investigating and prosecuting official violators and negligence under federal law, which would be a function of the Justice Department.
IA-04: The Republican establishment closed ranks behind Rep. Randy Feenstra on Monday, condemning his former primary challenger Kevin Virgil for urging supporters to split their tickets between Trump and IA-04 Democratic candidate Ryan Melton. Updated this post with links to statements from many GOP groups or prominent individuals:
https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2024/08/24/feenstra-challenger-urges-split-ticket-vote-for-democrat-in-ia-04/
Feenstra beat Melton in 2022 by about a 67-30 margin. I am skeptical that Virgil's endorsement means much but if Melton significantly improves (to, say, 40%) that would underscore Feenstra's potential weakness in a 2026 primary.
NH-GOV: Looks both candidates want to fatally wound each other before November.
Add in a very late primary
Yet another reason why they need to have primaries earlier in the year. Yes I get it's "tradition" for all these northeastern states to have September primaries, but that leaves very little time for the general election and doesn't allow wounds to be healed. This would not be the first time that such contention would be costly in an election. Al D'Amato held on to his Senate seat in 1992 for one more term largely because New York Democrats were too divided. Likewise in 1972, Tom Salmon won the Governorship of Vermont in what is still to this day considered THE biggest upset in Green Mountain State political history largely because Vermont Republicans were divided between Fred Hackett and Jim Jeffords.
Agreed.. I am opposed to the late primary elections
Saw on Twitter yesterday that they expect high quality polls to start dropping tomorrow and continue through the weekend.
Ppp has new polls out of Florida and Texas that are very good for Democratic candidates and make a decent case for them to be viable for Senate pickups.. Though still under dogs
FAU National Poll: Harris +4 with both RV and LVs 49-45.
PoliticoEU did a profile on Sahra Wagenknecht, whose new populist party is polling in the 10-20% range for upcoming state elections in Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia: https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-superstar-sahra-wagenknecht-far-left-far-right/
Unfortunate.
Here's my take on the current state of the race. My baseline for this election is 2020, on the assumption that most people will vote the same as they did in 2020, but that some factors have changed which might move smallish numbers of voters one way or the other. In this case positive numbers mean more favorable to Democrats and negative numbers to Republicans. “1” does not mean 1% of the vote, it means an indeterminate number of voters.
Trump 2020 v. Trump 2024: +1 to +2. Trump is no longer the incumbent, which is likely to hurt him to some extent. Since 2020, Trump instigated the 1-6 coup attempt, was convicted of 34 felonies, and has become even more unhinged and incoherent. Vance also appears to be a drag on the ticket whereas Pence wasn’t.
Biden 2020 v. Harris 2024: Uncertain, -1 to +1. Harris’ image and some issue positions from 2020 appear to make her less positioned to pick up swing voters than Biden was. On the other hand, she seems to have generated a level of popular excitement that Biden didn’t have, which might make it easier to activate lower-propensity voters.
Issue environment: +1. The abortion issue has been helping Democrats, and is going to be front and center again. Also, Trump is saddled with the unpopular Project 2025 which is more of a focal point than anything from 2020. Dem Senate candidates have generally been polling very well, which also suggests a favorable issue environment.
Economy: -1 to 0. People are still grumpy about high prices (although inflation itself is mostly back to normal) and high interest rates, although the economy issue didn’t appear to help the GOP much in 2022. The weak 2020 economy probably helped Biden. Low unemployment will help Harris.
Campaign/mobilization issues: +1. Democrats didn’t do rallies or canvass in 2020 because of the pandemic. Being able to do this again should boost Harris. Harris also has more money to run ads, more field offices, and apparently more volunteers.
Random events: -2 to +2. The closer we get to the election, the more likely that this will end up around zero, but there’s still always the possibility of an event (financial crisis, public Trump meltdown, etc) that could shift the vote a few points either way.
Aggregate: -1 to +7. Trump’s best case is probably narrowly winning the electoral college while losing the popular vote again. Harris’ best case may be something close to 2008 where she wins all the swing states with room to spare and picks up a state or two that wasn’t supposed to be in play. The most likely result appears to be something very close to 2020 but with Harris maybe doing a little better in the swing states. Basically I don't agree with the consensus that the election is a tossup. I think Harris is a modest favorite.
Also, I think Trump being the GOP Presidential Nominee again after losing re-election back in 2020 is not exactly an inspired choice if independents, moderates and swing voters are to consider anyone else a choice besides Kamala Harris.
It's very unusual choice to have a sitting president lose re-election and then make another run for POTUS.
It’s also very unusual to have a candidate that’s never conceded that he actually lost, and has convinced the lion’s share of his voters that he didn’t actually lose. Trump’s solution for washing off the loser stink is to pretend he’s never been a loser and to get everyone else to go along with it.
True although not conceding that he lost is not the only issue that Independents, moderates and swing voters use against Trump. It's the shear nature of actually deciding to run for the presidency again and not really offering anything different.
That's why Trump isn't going to win over these voters. He's making no effort to do so.
Well this is a surprise. The Downballot (formerly DKElections) @downballotnews
·#MDSEN Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) for the AARP: Angela Alsobrooks (D): 46, Larry Hogan (R): 46 (64-32 Harris in two-way, 59-29 Harris with third-party candidates) https://aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/maryland-older-voter-survey-2024-report.doi.10.26419-2fres.00813.031.pdf
I'm trying to comprehend some of these Harris-Alsobrooks gaps. 16% of the MD electorate are Harris-Hogan voters?! AND A MAJORITY OF THEM ARE DEMOCRATS?!
Hogan was a very popular Governor and was (and still is) able to fool a lot of white suburbanites - especially in the Baltimore suburbs - into thinking that he's a moderate. Like it or not, there are still quite a few people out there who still believe in the mythical creature that is the "moderate Republican." Especially anti tax suburbanites. I've long said that if the Republican Party genuinely moderated a bit on social issues, that we Democrats would be in trouble nationally.
Seems like a weird outlier to me. I'm not going to be scared into sending money to Alsobrooks on the basis of this poll.
Agreed.. I see no American electorate where Sherrod Brown wins in Ohio and Alsobrooks loses in Maryland on the same day.. In the end; I'll confidently bet alsobrooks wins by at least 10%(personally, I think she wins by more)
This polling is flawed. It only mentions a swing voter category for voters 50+ years old. I would think swing voters are not age specific.
Also, Alsobrooks has a slight lead over Hogan with voters younger than 50. This could be where she will be able to get leverage age demographics wise. Alsobrooks also in this poll leads black voters by a significant margin with such voters in the 18-49 age range as well as an overwhelming margin with black voters 50+ years of age.
All in all, this poll shows Alsobrooks has the edge in key demographic voters she needs if she wants to win the MD-SEN race.
In the end.. I bet Alsobrooks wins AAs by 20 to 1(maybe more).. imo this poll is complete junk
Are the crosstabs large enough to be statistically significant?
Yes.
Per the US Census, in Maryland there are 1,820,472 black voters, which are roughly 29% of the total votes in the state.
Also, there are 3,158,811 women in the state which comprise of 51% of the voters in the state, thereby being the majority of residents in the state based on gender.
Of course, Hogan is more of a moderate Republican in Maryland standards but if he's behind Alsobrooks in both black and women voters, then he's certainly not getting the edge.
https://data.census.gov/profile/Maryland?g=040XX00US24#populations-and-people
And naturally, Alsobrooks happens to be both black and a woman. This complicates Hogan's ability to win over these key voters.
Those aren't crosstabs! How many Black people were sampled in the poll? Etc. Those are crosstabs.
Here's what the AARP polling states:
"AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of
Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to conduct a
survey of voters in Maryland. The firms interviewed 1,258
likely voters, which includes a statewide representative
sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 482 likely
voters age 50 and older, and an additional oversample of
176 Black likely voters age 50 and older. The survey was
done between August 14-20, 2024. The interviews were
conducted via live interviewer on landline (25%) and
cellphone (35%), as well as SMS-to-web (40%). The
sample was randomly drawn from the Maryland voter list.
The margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level
for the 600 statewide sample is ±4.0%; for the 800 total
sample of voters 50+ is ±3.5%; for the 400 total sample of
Black voters 50+ is ±4.9%."
It appears that 400 black voters were sampled and that there was an oversample of 176 black voters aged 50 years or older.
Overall, in terms of percentages in the AARP poll:
55% female
45% male
58% white
30% black
FYI, based on what you were saying about the crosstabs, I did feel it was worth looking at the population of Maryland and seeing what insights it would be able to provide me in the Senate race.
Granted that this AARP poll did sample more female voters than male voters, as it turns out women have a slight majority representation in MD.
Senator Phil Bredesen says 'hello'
For those interested; Sabato still rates this race as Likely D(imo this rating would be Safe D if Alsobrooks were an incumbent)
Cinde Warmington is correct. Oxycontin was initially approved only for cancer pain. Data from the pivotal trials found limited adverse side effects and low risk of addiction in this patient group. For patients with intractable cancer pain, oxycontin was a miracle drug. As Warmington points out, and the world has seen, Purdue Pharma later pushed aggressively to expand the marketing of the drug while obscuring its addictive potential in patients with pain not caused by cancer. I know this history from brief employment with a med-comms agency with a client roster that included Purdue in the early days of oxycontin.
Maybe, but it's still a really bad look in a state ravaged by the opioid epidemic.
That's the main reason why I'm probably going to vote for Craig in the primary.
Yeah, in terms of image, it's terrible and a great reason not to risk having her try to win a general election.
Due respect; in politics, if you're explaining, you're losing
All that won't matter when Warmington gets pummeled by 30 second attack ads. Having lobbied for Purdue is a glaring weakness.
If the goal is to win the election, you don't nominate someone with such a obvious liablity.
Just in case, I think Gov. Moore & Obama should headline a rally for Alsobrooks in Baltimore suburbs or something to shore her up; can't take any chances!! 💙🇺🇲
Especially in either Howard County or Anne Arundel County. Unfortunately too many people still believe in the mythical creature that is the "moderate Republican." Alsobrooks, Moore, and Obama need to make the case that a vote for Hogan no matter how "moderate" he pretends to be is a vote for Trump and McConnell. And of course voters have to care.
Yes, but this is one poll.
Just remember though that Hogan originally was elected as Governor of Maryland in spite of the fact that the 2014 midterms featured dreadful turnout.
However, running for the Senate is a completely different dynamic all together.
Imo Moore should be in every county in Maryland; but, Obama should be in Milwaukee, Detroit, Philadelphia, Charlotte, Atlanta, Phoenix, and Las Vegas
Apparently there is a Reuters/Ipsos on the way. Here is part of memo and looks good as far as it goes for Harris. https://x.com/pslst15/status/1828505000240107733
Cook moves WA Gov and NC Gov in Democrats’ direction
https://x.com/CookPolitical/status/1828538577594261945
Imo Robinson will be a turnout drain
You mean, "Some people need killing" wouldn't be a vote winner of a speech (or sermon in Robinson's case).
Lmao
As nice as that would be, ita not real. POTUS is driving turnout, not governor races. No one is just going to simply NOT vote for president because of of the gubernatorial candidates is a whackjob.
I disagree.. Robinson is the one candidate that is so toxic, that I can see him motivating more Democratic turnout, while at the same time depressing what I call 'sane Republicans' from voting or actually voting Democratic (think Nikki Haley voters that still turned out to vote against Trump long after the Republican nomination was decided)
I agree with that, but someone who doesn't really like Trump but would probably vote for him might stay home if there's nothing downballot to impel him to vote.
Also on the presidential level, NH and MN move from lean to likely Dem. And NC moves from lean R to tossup.
https://x.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1828539186686677464
And the hits just keep on comin..
Just a reset to expectations of pure toss up race which it is right now.
Clearly the trends are on the side of the Good Guys
One word of caution, though: If we were skeptical of the polls when they showed Biden trailing, we should retain some skepticism.
Of course👍
CNN gets first joint interview of Harris/Walz
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/27/politics/kamala-harris-cnn-interview/index.html
OH-Sen, This move comes off as Moreno is expecting to lose so he’s pursuing his back up option: re-launch his car business https://www.cleveland.com/news/2024/08/bernie-moreno-pursues-new-business-venture-as-he-challenges-sen-sherrod-brown-disclosure-shows.html?outputType=amp
In poker parlance.. this is easy tell..
I still wouldn't take the seat for granted, though.
Always run through the goal line before spiking the ball
Democrats have flipped the Tulsa mayor seat with 2 Democrats advancing to the November general election in this non partisan race.
https://www.oklahoman.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/08/27/tulsa-mayor-election-results-karen-keith-monroe-nichols-head-to-november-runoff-oklahoma-2024/74964949007/
If Monroe Nichols were to win in November, he would be the first black mayor of Tulsa OK.
Crazy close result in the 3way
That would be a bit of recompense for a historical atrocity.
T
Ho Chi Minh City
August.28.2024
Proposing special signing a bill, to become law to protect detention camps female prisoners from being raped, is the most correct thing. Because the damage, truly mental, always weighs heavily, in the soul, in the heart and also in the body, and the presence from that pain, when female prisoners, they have to go through, punishment, from torture to allowed order, to serve investigation and interrogation, obligatory..... for justice, when they have to comply, for the process, to serve the investigation and interrogation.
And there is no, pain, other than, to be able to survive the reality, when they have to receive, prison sentences from the prisons, for their violation, of the law.... earnestly, please do not let them, receive any more, punishment, please do not, as, allow to happen, from the law, to be added to the female prisons, the punishment of sexual abuse,
recommend to the President of the United States, the highest penalty, for the act, of violating the law, from women's prisons, of raping women, for the reason of abuse of power , when they were on prison duty Warden , while they were in charge of managing prisoners, , and they have thrived, (rape of female prisoners), because from the media portals, it is not easy to access the prisons..... if the criminal procedure code always does the job, adequately punishing, the targets of raping female prisoners,.....
Preventing the rape of women from prisons, as such, must become law, lest abuse of power and injustice persist.
The Most Sincerely
Thanh Ngoc Truong
It's not only women who are raped in prisons. I don't think the issue is the lack of laws against it. It's that not enough is done to prevent it. And most of the problems are at private or state prisons, not federal ones, so I'm not sure how much the federal government can do about it, other than by more aggressively investigating and prosecuting official violators and negligence under federal law, which would be a function of the Justice Department.