Morning Digest: Now both Tennessee senators are considering running for governor

And one of them is also up for reelection next year

Tennessee’s two Republican senators, Bill Hagerty and Marsha Blackburn (credit: Bill Hagerty campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

TN-Gov, TN-Sen

An ally of Bill Hagerty says the junior senator is considering running for governor even as Tennessee's other Republican senator, Marsha Blackburn, eyes that very job.

"We have had dozens who have reached out to us," Steve Smith, who was the finance chair for Hagerty's 2020 bid, told the Knoxville News Sentinel's Allie Feinberg on Wednesday. "It is reasonable to assume a decision will be made in the next 100 days."

But while a primary between Blackburn and Hagerty would likely mark the first time in American history that two sitting U.S. senators competed against each other for governor, we're probably not going to get to watch such a battle. The two senators have been closely aligned, with Blackburn endorsing Hagerty ahead of his competitive 2020 primary and both backing Florida Sen. Rick Scott's failed bid for majority leader last fall.

"One or the other would step aside, rather than have both run," political scientist Bill Lyons predicted to Feinberg. "[It] would be somehow worked out otherwise."

Until now it appeared that Hagerty, a wealthy businessman who is Donald Trump's former ambassador to Japan, would opt to seek reelection to the Senate in 2026. Blackburn, by contrast, just won a second six-year term last November.

While Feinberg says that Tennessee law allows Hagerty to run for governor and Senate simultaneously, we're not aware of any serious candidates ever attempting such a maneuver anywhere in the country.

And unless Hagerty wants to make history—a move that would introduce all sorts of complications to both races—he'll have to decide if he wants to give up his secure spot in Congress to enter what could be a competitive primary. Several other Republicans are interested in succeeding termed-out Gov. Bill Lee, and while some of them announced they'd defer to Blackburn, they haven't publicly said the same about Hagerty.

New York Dems consider playing hardball on special elections

Governors

MI-Gov

Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson announced Thursday that he was joining next year's Democratic primary for governor of Michigan.

Swanson, whose jurisdiction includes Flint, was appointed to his post in early 2020 after his boss, longtime Sheriff Robert Pickell, stepped down with one year left on his term. The new sheriff rose to national prominence months later when he joined demonstrators at a march condemning the murder of George Floyd.

"We want to be with y'all for real, so I took my helmet off and laid the batons down," Swanson told the crowd. "I want to make this a parade, not a protest." The demonstrators enthusiastically cheered in response and chanted, "Walk with us."

Prominent figures like Barack Obama soon praised him, while Gov. Gretchen Whitmer called Swanson's actions "one of the things I have been inspired by." Democratic voters at home also backed him, and Swanson secured his party's nomination 64-21 against former Flint Police Chief Tim Johnson. The sheriff went on to win the general election 70-30 as Joe Biden carried Genesee County by a smaller 54-45 spread.

Swanson, who became close to University of Michigan football coach Jim Harbaugh, began talking about running for governor soon after Whitmer won reelection in 2022. The sheriff didn't have to worry about keeping his job last year even as his once solidly Democratic country lurched to the right: Swanson secured reelection 65-35 as Kamala Harris won his community 51-47.

Swanson launched his campaign to succeed the termed-out Whitmer weeks after Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson became the first Democrat to enter what could be a busy primary.

MI-Gov, MI-10

Republican Rep. John James told two people he will run for governor—something we only know because Semafor reporter Kadia Goba overheard him saying it Wednesday evening. The congressman has not publicly confirmed he's in, though Goba adds that her sources say "his potential run is no secret."

A statewide bid for James would set off an open seat race for the 10th District, a light red constituency based in Macomb County. Democrats, Politico reported last month, already expected James to run for governor and are trying to find a strong recruit.

OH-Gov

Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose will run for state auditor, an announcement that takes him out of the running for governor of Ohio. LaRose, who took a distant third place in last year's U.S. Senate primary, said in December that he could seek the governor's office, but his name largely faded from the conversation over the ensuing two months.

SC-Gov

State Sens. Sean Bennett and Josh Kimbrell have each informed the conservative site FITS they're interested in entering the Republican primary for governor of South Carolina.

Bennett pitched himself as a "serious" alternative to "performative politics at the national level." (Good luck with that.) Kimbrell, for his part, is a former Christian radio host who believes the state Senate wasn't a truly conservative body until last year's elections delivered Republicans a supermajority.

House

CA-11

Saikat Chakrabarti, who managed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's upset 2018 primary campaign, announced Wednesday that he'd oppose none other than Nancy Pelosi. But while Chakrabarti launched his longshot effort by claiming that the speaker emerita "is running again," the 84-year-old Pelosi has yet to announce if she'll seek another term in her dark blue San Francisco seat.

Legislatures

MN State House

Minnesota Republicans say they're going ahead with recall campaigns against all 66 Democratic state representatives even though Democrats have ended their weeks-long walkout. This drive, however, is unlikely to get far.

Political scientist David Schultz told the Pioneer Press this week that it's "nearly impossible" to recall an elected official in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. "In fact, I'll push it further," he added, "It was designed not to work." The last three decades back him up: The paper notes that no recall elections have taken place since the process went into place in 1996.

A key reason for this is that the state Supreme Court needs to agree that targeted office holders are even subject to removal. While some states​​ allow voters to put a recall question on the ballot for any reason, the Minnesota constitution says this can only happen if elected officials have committed "serious malfeasance or nonfeasance" while in office or been convicted of a "serious crime."

Republicans insist that Democrats have engaged in "nonfeasance" by not doing the jobs they were elected to, but they'll have a lot of work to do to persuade the justices. If they do get the green light, recall proponents would need to collect signatures representing 25% of the votes cast in the most recent election, which the GOP estimates will range from 5,000 to 6,000 signatures per district.

Mayors & County Leaders

Cincinnati, OH Mayor

Pastor Cory Bowman, a Republican who is JD Vance's half-brother, announced Tuesday that he'd compete in this year's race to lead heavily Democratic Cincinnati. Bowman's kickoff generated local and national headlines—though most of them omitted the candidate's name.

Bowman, who told the Cincinnati Enquirer that he spoke to his sibling in the "initial stages" of planning his campaign, is one of seven people who has taken out paperwork to challenge Mayor Aftab Pureval. There's no indication that Pureval, who is one of the most prominent Democrats in Ohio, is vulnerable in this nonpartisan race.

The GOP, despite its huge gains in statewide elections, isn't a major factor in Cincinnati municipal elections. Bowman, the Enquirer writes, is the first Republican to run for mayor since 2009. Republicans also lost their last spot on the city council in 2023 when Democratic candidates swept all nine seats.

Pittsburgh, PA Mayor

The United Steelworkers backed Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey on Tuesday in what Axios' Ryan Deto characterized as the first major endorsement of the May 20 Democratic primary.

Gainey is trying to fend off Allegheny County Controller Corey O'Connor, who finished last year with a $310,000 to $270,000 cash on hand edge against the incumbent. Whoever wins the Democratic nomination is all but certain to win the November general election in this loyally blue city, which last elected a Republican leader in 1929.