I am glad to see folks in red states as well as blue states get a vote on this issue. Republicans have put too many women in dangerous situations. However unless we pass expanded voter access in blue states as well as red states, such as universal vote by mail and combine the local elections with the even year elections, extremists will always have the opportunity to restrict reproductive health care for poor women. "The only cure for the ills of democracy is more democracy"
Those are good reforms (I'd love to see New Hampshire institute early voting), but just as important as those is making all local elections partisan, so that voters know the political beliefs of the candidates they're voting for. We should frame this as a good government issue - to help voters become more informed.
There are a lot of examples of how this would help Democrats, but the example that pisses me off the most is the 2020 mayoral election in Stockton, California. At the same time that Biden won Stockton by a 2-1 margin, they elected a Republican mayor by a 13-point margin. That would never have happened if party affiliations were on the ballot. Absolutely absurd.
As a side note, that Republican is now running for Congress against Josh Harder. And he's going to lose, because luckily, Congressional candidates do have their party affiliations on the ballot.
I think making all elections partisan makes sense, but I also think that it makes candidates from the dominant party more likely to win and candidates from the minority party less likely to win, so we'd be gaining more dominance in already blue-leaning states in exchange for even fewer wins in red states. I think that's alright, because there's a positive good in giving people more information to help them choose a candidate, but it's worth noting. It's also problematic to have to pick candidates for judgeships and Attorneys General on a partisan basis, but we definitely do have to do that at this point in American history!
I think the only thing that would really guarantee abortion rights nationally is a constitutional amendment, because the Supreme Court can presume to arrogate to themselves the power to overturn laws even if the laws state that they have no jurisdiction, but a federal abortion rights law would help.
I can't imagine this court ever letting any constitutional amendment survive, even in the unlikely event an amendment passes (say, to get rid of the electoral college). Some right-wing group will sue once the 38th state approves, and SCOTUS will find a misplaced comma means the whole process is undone. This court has completely removed my faith in settled precedent -- not sure it will ever get built back up again.
The Harris campaign and the DNC plan to transfer $25 million to support down-ballot Democratic candidates. The sum includes $10 million each to the DCCC and DSCC, $2.5 million to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and $1 million each to the Democratic Governors Association and the Democratic Attorneys General Association. In the past six weeks, the Harris campaign has raised $540 million. https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/09/03/harris-25-million-transfer/
I am delighted to hear this. It indicates that the Harris campaign is confident that it has (or will have) all of the funds it needs and that it sees the election (and governing) as a team effort.
The linked article also states that the Harris campaign now has "more than 2,000 staff and 312 offices in the battleground states in partnership with the" DNC.
Also the educational realignment has meant there's more people who range from either having money on the side to donate or Brinks Trucks level of wealth are part of the Democratic base now.
If the Harris campaign has all the money it needs, I'd really like them to at least make a play for Texas and Florida, at least in terms of opening a few field offices and putting a little money into targeted media (Latino, Cuban, Black, rural, seniors at the Villages, etc etc; I'm not saying dump millions into Miami and Dallas tv ads).
My only complaint is that the poll did not include other down ballot races, including the LG and AG races. Ironically they have Josh Stein colored red on their poll instead of blue. I would have said they were using the colo(u)r scheme that the rest of the Anglosphere nations use, except Slob was colored red in the Presidential poll.
Clearly so far; both campaigns are going for it; I can remember Obama won it; then next time around kinda saw the writing on the wall and didn't contest it(personally I believe that Beasley deserved real funding and might have won; and the Senate balance of today would be much better for our side)
Aren’t we glad Pat Toomey is no longer in the Senate representing PA?
Whereas Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a conservative Republican, is voting for Harris in November, Toomey seems to be so “principled” that he won’t even vote for her.
You bet. Being mildly anti-Trump, or even vociferously anti-Trump, does not make folks like Liz Cheney or Toomey anti-fascist, they just prefer different fascists than Trump to be in charge.
I agree. During a time when there are supporters of actual dictatorship, politicians who are somewhat anti-democratic but refuse to support Trump are not that.
Oh Toomey is your typical right wing con man in the GOP. I am not fooled by a wimp like him whose only good thing about him was that he helped Joe Manchin with a gun control bill and didn’t believe Biden lost.
While ideally you want to get as many Harris switchers as you can get, I’m not going to frown at a bloc of Trump/Trump/NOTA voters sitting this one out. The most important thing is adding to the collection of voices saying Donald Trump is unacceptable under any circumstances.
Harris will campaign in New Hampshire, Portsmouth area next week.
Trump is saying this shows she is vulnerable there after all, but apparently a Trump vice chair has told people he expects Trump to loose NH by a greater margin than 2020.
So what are the thoughts behind Harris going to NH? Shore up the House and Gov races? Just not be seen blowing the state off since Biden and the DNC snubbed them with the primary fiasco?
As a general rule, I wouldn't take what any campaign says at face value, and the Trump people are so obviously liars and leakers that I wouldn't trust them to tell me what 1+1 is.
Best guess, Harris is doing some kind of "messaging" event (like unions or something), is tying this event in with a fundraiser, or simply wants to hit New England to help shore up the region (even if it's likely we win every EV save one of Maine's) or to make a point that it's not being neglected (I'm not cognizant of her other campaign stops, honestly).
This was supposed to be a reply to “Jay”, sorry. Is the ME-02 media market the same as Portsmouth? If so I could see a “tons of birds with 1 stone throw” attempt.
NH is only GOP held state left in New England (though technically Rick Scott is in Vermont, legislature can override any veto). Republicans in addition to holding the Governorship also control the State House and State Senate. Congressional seat is open too. So going there once to shore up congress, state races and electoral vote in ME-02, where polling shows she can win is almost a no brainer. As long as she doesn’t go constantly, a stop outside the battleground swing states here and there to help out downballot Democrats is fine.
Ok, thanks! Maybe not directly then. I’d still think media coverage would seep over into ME-02 though. But, regardless of that, the other reasons are probably why.
I'd rather she campaign in Manchester. It's bigger than Portsmouth (both in terms of just the city and the whole nearby area), and it has more swingy state legislative races. Both are in NH-01 so that shouldn't be a factor.
I never believed for a second that Trump was ever going to win NH, a state the GOP has failed to win at the presidential level since 2004.
That said, the Harris camp is likely not taking any chances, especially with NH. On the other hand, I think the campaign is far more concerned about MI, PA, and WI.
"The investigation led to the arrest of a 10-year-old who reportedly was brought in by a guardian and confessed to the deaths of 82-year-old Joe Cornelius Sr. and his daughter 31-year-old Keisha Miles."
"Cornelius was confirmed to be a former Minden city councilman and a former interim mayor."
A 10-year old. With a gun. Killing a former sheriff (which he also was). But do you suppose this will change anything in Louisiana? I doubt it.
"The boy just pulled a gun out. I mean, Joe used to be a sheriff, so he has guns because he worked for the sheriff’s department and the boy know where it was."
So the former sheriff didn't store his gun properly, and his negligence led to two deaths including his own.
Plenty of cities in LA have a strong population of black and women residents. It’s the rural regions that are dead red.
Issue really is turnout. There’s been discussion on DKE before about the problem LA Democrats are facing. Just having John Bel Edwards be elected to two terms as Governor is not enough.
Of course, we have the LA-06 race that will result in the first House pickup in LA in ages. However, federal and statewide races in the state in general are going to be a problem.
I am glad to see folks in red states as well as blue states get a vote on this issue. Republicans have put too many women in dangerous situations. However unless we pass expanded voter access in blue states as well as red states, such as universal vote by mail and combine the local elections with the even year elections, extremists will always have the opportunity to restrict reproductive health care for poor women. "The only cure for the ills of democracy is more democracy"
Those are good reforms (I'd love to see New Hampshire institute early voting), but just as important as those is making all local elections partisan, so that voters know the political beliefs of the candidates they're voting for. We should frame this as a good government issue - to help voters become more informed.
There are a lot of examples of how this would help Democrats, but the example that pisses me off the most is the 2020 mayoral election in Stockton, California. At the same time that Biden won Stockton by a 2-1 margin, they elected a Republican mayor by a 13-point margin. That would never have happened if party affiliations were on the ballot. Absolutely absurd.
As a side note, that Republican is now running for Congress against Josh Harder. And he's going to lose, because luckily, Congressional candidates do have their party affiliations on the ballot.
Here in FL, they put some local positions on the August primary ballot as non-partisan, but in red counties it means Dems are guaranteed to lose.
I'd think they'd be more likely to lose if they are identified on the ballot as Democrats.
One more headache Democrats don’t need if they want to win elections in FL.
My point was that these nonpartisan races should be on November ballot, not on lopsided primary day as "add ons".
I see, understood.
Not to mention voting for (supposedly nonpartisan) judges. I have to do some research to check on those lists here in IL (cook county)
I think making all elections partisan makes sense, but I also think that it makes candidates from the dominant party more likely to win and candidates from the minority party less likely to win, so we'd be gaining more dominance in already blue-leaning states in exchange for even fewer wins in red states. I think that's alright, because there's a positive good in giving people more information to help them choose a candidate, but it's worth noting. It's also problematic to have to pick candidates for judgeships and Attorneys General on a partisan basis, but we definitely do have to do that at this point in American history!
Aren’t mayoral elections considered non-partisan by default?
Huh? Maybe in some towns, but not in New York or many other cities.
I think the only thing that would really guarantee abortion rights nationally is a constitutional amendment, because the Supreme Court can presume to arrogate to themselves the power to overturn laws even if the laws state that they have no jurisdiction, but a federal abortion rights law would help.
Or a left wing court. Neither of which is an easy lift currently.
I can't imagine this court ever letting any constitutional amendment survive, even in the unlikely event an amendment passes (say, to get rid of the electoral college). Some right-wing group will sue once the 38th state approves, and SCOTUS will find a misplaced comma means the whole process is undone. This court has completely removed my faith in settled precedent -- not sure it will ever get built back up again.
They have ignored the 14th Amendment, so you could be right.
The Harris campaign and the DNC plan to transfer $25 million to support down-ballot Democratic candidates. The sum includes $10 million each to the DCCC and DSCC, $2.5 million to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and $1 million each to the Democratic Governors Association and the Democratic Attorneys General Association. In the past six weeks, the Harris campaign has raised $540 million. https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/09/03/harris-25-million-transfer/
I am delighted to hear this. It indicates that the Harris campaign is confident that it has (or will have) all of the funds it needs and that it sees the election (and governing) as a team effort.
The linked article also states that the Harris campaign now has "more than 2,000 staff and 312 offices in the battleground states in partnership with the" DNC.
I can remember a time where our candidates were not competitive due to money; not anymore
It helps that Democratic voters have finally accepted that money in politics is not going away anytime soon.
Also the educational realignment has meant there's more people who range from either having money on the side to donate or Brinks Trucks level of wealth are part of the Democratic base now.
If the Harris campaign has all the money it needs, I'd really like them to at least make a play for Texas and Florida, at least in terms of opening a few field offices and putting a little money into targeted media (Latino, Cuban, Black, rural, seniors at the Villages, etc etc; I'm not saying dump millions into Miami and Dallas tv ads).
That would be more of a Senate play than a presidential play, but it might be worth doing.
they already have 11 coordinated field offices in Florida.
This is amazing!
Should make it easier for more House seats to be won back by Democrats. First Bloomberg’s helping finance downballot races, now the Harris Camp.
Pocket change in both instances, but every little bit helps.
North Carolina ECU poll: Trump 48 Harris 47. Stein 47 Robinson 41.
https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/north-carolina-election-heats-up-trump-leads-harris-by-1-point-in-north-carolina-stein-widens-advantage-over-robinson-in-race-for-governor
Subsamples are usually a mess, but the poll had Harris leading by 10 among indies. In the 2020 exit poll, Biden won them by just 4.
How many Indies did they sample?
341 R, 313 D, 266 I
https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.filestackcontent.com%2FMNP1RnTniAUhS6vxhMbA&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK
So we should probably disregard that crosstab.
266 is a decent size for a crosstab. The really hinky ones usually come when they get about 40 people and have to extrapolate from that.
Do you disagree with the DownBallot standard (which I'm assuming they will uphold) of not publishing info about polls with less than 300 respondents?
My only complaint is that the poll did not include other down ballot races, including the LG and AG races. Ironically they have Josh Stein colored red on their poll instead of blue. I would have said they were using the colo(u)r scheme that the rest of the Anglosphere nations use, except Slob was colored red in the Presidential poll.
Seems to me at this point that polling is showing that NC is becoming a closer state to contest for Harris than even Biden back in 2020.
Clearly so far; both campaigns are going for it; I can remember Obama won it; then next time around kinda saw the writing on the wall and didn't contest it(personally I believe that Beasley deserved real funding and might have won; and the Senate balance of today would be much better for our side)
Agreed. Beasley was quite a good Senate candidate as well.
We have another chance with Thom Tillis in 2026.
Gov. Cooper is apparently considering taking on Tillis in 2026. Tillis would have to survive a potential primary first!! 😂
Aren’t we glad Pat Toomey is no longer in the Senate representing PA?
Whereas Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a conservative Republican, is voting for Harris in November, Toomey seems to be so “principled” that he won’t even vote for her.
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4859730-toomey-votes-trump-harris/amp/
Toomey is a fascist. Don’t let his camo fool you.
Lest we forget he ran against Arlen Specter from the RIGHT in 2004.
You bet. Being mildly anti-Trump, or even vociferously anti-Trump, does not make folks like Liz Cheney or Toomey anti-fascist, they just prefer different fascists than Trump to be in charge.
Fascist seems a little harsh
I agree. During a time when there are supporters of actual dictatorship, politicians who are somewhat anti-democratic but refuse to support Trump are not that.
Once we get over this, then the conversation remains about the GOP:
Unless the party becomes more moderate, they will still con the public like they have done since the Reagan years.
And LOST!
Oh Toomey is your typical right wing con man in the GOP. I am not fooled by a wimp like him whose only good thing about him was that he helped Joe Manchin with a gun control bill and didn’t believe Biden lost.
While ideally you want to get as many Harris switchers as you can get, I’m not going to frown at a bloc of Trump/Trump/NOTA voters sitting this one out. The most important thing is adding to the collection of voices saying Donald Trump is unacceptable under any circumstances.
Pat Toomey just wants whatever will allow banks and private equity to make more money.
$$$$ talks!
https://www.wmur.com/article/kamala-harris-new-hampshire-visit-9-4/62025531
Harris will campaign in New Hampshire, Portsmouth area next week.
Trump is saying this shows she is vulnerable there after all, but apparently a Trump vice chair has told people he expects Trump to loose NH by a greater margin than 2020.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4860223-trump-harris-sees-problems-for-campaign-in-new-hampshire/
So what are the thoughts behind Harris going to NH? Shore up the House and Gov races? Just not be seen blowing the state off since Biden and the DNC snubbed them with the primary fiasco?
Oh apparently Trump has pulled out of NH completely. So what gives?
As a general rule, I wouldn't take what any campaign says at face value, and the Trump people are so obviously liars and leakers that I wouldn't trust them to tell me what 1+1 is.
Best guess, Harris is doing some kind of "messaging" event (like unions or something), is tying this event in with a fundraiser, or simply wants to hit New England to help shore up the region (even if it's likely we win every EV save one of Maine's) or to make a point that it's not being neglected (I'm not cognizant of her other campaign stops, honestly).
This was supposed to be a reply to “Jay”, sorry. Is the ME-02 media market the same as Portsmouth? If so I could see a “tons of birds with 1 stone throw” attempt.
NH is only GOP held state left in New England (though technically Rick Scott is in Vermont, legislature can override any veto). Republicans in addition to holding the Governorship also control the State House and State Senate. Congressional seat is open too. So going there once to shore up congress, state races and electoral vote in ME-02, where polling shows she can win is almost a no brainer. As long as she doesn’t go constantly, a stop outside the battleground swing states here and there to help out downballot Democrats is fine.
"Is the ME-02 media market the same as Portsmouth?"
No. Bangor is the largest city in that district.
Ok, thanks! Maybe not directly then. I’d still think media coverage would seep over into ME-02 though. But, regardless of that, the other reasons are probably why.
I'd rather she campaign in Manchester. It's bigger than Portsmouth (both in terms of just the city and the whole nearby area), and it has more swingy state legislative races. Both are in NH-01 so that shouldn't be a factor.
Perhaps she chose Portsmouth for the optics with the naval shipyard.
That vice chair was dismissed for telling the truth publicly
I never believed for a second that Trump was ever going to win NH, a state the GOP has failed to win at the presidential level since 2004.
That said, the Harris camp is likely not taking any chances, especially with NH. On the other hand, I think the campaign is far more concerned about MI, PA, and WI.
Generic Ballot from Suffolk
1000 likely voters 8/28
Democrats 48%
Republicans 43%
D+5
Isn't Suffolk A rated??
Minden boy, 10, arrested for allegedly killing man, daughter, https://www.ksla.com/2024/09/01/minden-boy-10-arrested-allegedly-killing-2-adults/ (hat tip to PoliticalWire, as usual):
"The investigation led to the arrest of a 10-year-old who reportedly was brought in by a guardian and confessed to the deaths of 82-year-old Joe Cornelius Sr. and his daughter 31-year-old Keisha Miles."
"Cornelius was confirmed to be a former Minden city councilman and a former interim mayor."
A 10-year old. With a gun. Killing a former sheriff (which he also was). But do you suppose this will change anything in Louisiana? I doubt it.
Louisiana might never change(after the exodus resulting from Katrina)
I think this is the worst part of the story:
"The boy just pulled a gun out. I mean, Joe used to be a sheriff, so he has guns because he worked for the sheriff’s department and the boy know where it was."
So the former sheriff didn't store his gun properly, and his negligence led to two deaths including his own.
Just a horrible situation and yes, the former sheriff of all people should exercise proper gun safety
Plenty of cities in LA have a strong population of black and women residents. It’s the rural regions that are dead red.
Issue really is turnout. There’s been discussion on DKE before about the problem LA Democrats are facing. Just having John Bel Edwards be elected to two terms as Governor is not enough.
The Democratic candidate was not competitive against the current governor
And the last Democratic Senate Candidates didn’t fare well either.
Unknown candidate plus no money>huge loss; most likely this formula going forward
Of course, we have the LA-06 race that will result in the first House pickup in LA in ages. However, federal and statewide races in the state in general are going to be a problem.
Not a chance!