Morning Digest: Parties make deal to end walkout in Minnesota House

Republicans will get sole control over the speakership, while committees will soon have bipartisan chairs

Republican Lisa Demuth (left), will soon be speaker of the Minnesota House (credit: Lisa Demuth campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

MN State House

Minnesota Republicans and Democrats announced Wednesday evening that they'd reached a deal to end the nearly month-long Democratic walkout that kept the state House from doing business.

While both sides promised to reveal details about the agreement Thursday morning, the Minnesota Star Tribune reports that it ensures Republican Rep. Lisa Demuth will serve as speaker through next year's elections. Minnesota Public Radio says there will be "some conditions on her authority," though it remains to be seen exactly what these will be.

Republicans will also chair committees while the party maintains its 67-66 edge, but this state of affairs will likely be temporary. Gov. Tim Walz announced earlier Wednesday that he'd set March 11 for the special election to fill a reliably blue seat in the state House. The Star Tribune relays that the agreement would see Democrats and Republicans serve as co-chairs in a tied House.

The paper adds that the GOP has agreed to seat Democratic Rep. Brad Tabke, who won reelection by 14 votes in a race where 20 ballots were unintentionally discarded. Republicans, though, will hold the majority on a new committee empowered to investigate allegations of fraud in state government programs. Unlike the other panels, this oversight committee will have a Republican chair and majority through the 2026 elections.

There will almost certainly be less drama in the special election for House District 40B, a seat in the St. Paul suburbs that favored Kamala Harris by a 68-29 spread. The constituency is open because the Democrat who easily won last year, Curtis Johnson, prospectively resigned in December after a judge determined he failed to meet the residency requirement.

However, it was the news of Johnson's absence that led the GOP to abandon the power-sharing deal that both parties agreed to when they thought they'd begin the legislature with a 67-67 tie, which would have also required membership on all committees to be split equally with co-chairs from each party. (The two sides never reached an agreement on who would be speaker.)

What followed was a long standoff that saw every member of the Democratic caucus boycott the 134-seat chamber to ensure Republicans lacked a quorum. While Republicans, who declared Demuth speaker anyway, insisted that they could run the chamber as long as there were 67 representatives present, the state Supreme Court ruled last month that 68 members are required to make a quorum.

Democrats thought the standoff would only last a few weeks, as Walz originally set the special for Jan. 28. The state's highest court, however, canceled it after ruling the governor was obligated to wait until the legislature reconvened on Jan. 14 to take action.

New primaries will now take place on Feb. 25 if either party has a contested nomination, but there's not likely to be much drama that day. Democrat David Gottfried and Republican Paul Wikstrom each won their respective party's nomination for the canceled Jan. 28 election without opposition, and neither of them stopped running after their showdown was postponed.

The Downballot Podcast

New York Dems consider playing hardball on special elections

A special election will soon be underway to replace Republican Elise Stefanik after she's confirmed as ambassador to the United Nations, but New York Democrats are considering delaying it from April to June—or possibly even later. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay break down the implications of Empire State Democrats finding a backbone. Additionally, we discuss big decisions by potential candidates in Michigan and Ohio, which will have both Senate and governor races next year.

We're also talking to Campaign Legal Center Executive Director Adav Noti for an update on the state of campaign finance in 2024—and it's not great! We discuss how Citizens United and the appointment of an anti-enforcement Democratic commissioner on the FEC led to the Wild West of campaign finance we know today. However, we also look at some positive laws and changes at the state level and discuss how reform could move forward at the federal level in the future.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

Senate

MI-Sen

A spokesperson for Attorney General Dana Nessel has confirmed to the National Journal that she's considering running next year to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters, a fellow Democrat. Nessel, who cannot seek a third term in her current job, would be the first gay person to represent Michigan in either chamber of Congress.

Governors

CA-Gov

Democratic Attorney General Rob Bonta will not enter next year's packed race for governor and will instead seek reelection as California's top lawyer. Bonta, who revealed his plans to Politico, added that he hopes Kamala Harris will run—a move he predicted would "be field-clearing"—but said he hadn't talked to the former vice president about her plans.

FL-Gov

Republican Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez will resign Friday to take over as interim president of Florida International University, multiple media outlets report, a move that could shake up next year's race to replace her boss.

Termed-out Gov. Ron DeSantis will pick a new lieutenant governor, and he's likely to elevate someone he wants to succeed him. It remains to be seen, though, which Sunshine State Republican DeSantis hopes will inherit the governor's mansion from him in 2027.

MI-Gov

Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson has decided to seek the Democratic nomination for governor of Michigan, WLNS reports, and will launch his campaign this evening at what his team calls an "announcement event."

NJ-Gov

A collection of powerful Democrats in populous Hudson County declared Wednesday that they were dropping their endorsement of Rep. Josh Gottheimer and would instead back Rep. Mikie Sherrill in the June 10 primary for governor.

This group includes County Executive Craig Guy, who is also the county party chair, and Union City Mayor Brian Stack, who doubles as a state senator. The New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein argues that Stack is a particularly big get for Sherrill due to his status as one of the "few officials in the state who can deliver large pluralities just by asking voters to vote a certain way."

Guy, Stack, and their allies made news back in July when they urged Gottheimer to run for governor, with Stack saying, "Jersey needs a straight shooter like my good friend, Josh, who does what he says and is true to his word."

The group, though, had a different take on Wednesday about who would be the best candidate to succeed termed-out Gov. Phil Murphy.

"Mikie is tough as nails and her story clearly connects with voters in Hudson County and across the state," they said in a joint statement. Stack added, "A lot of things have happened since the summer, and backing Mikie is the right thing to do for Hudson County."

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Stack did not elaborate on what changed even as he commended Sherrill for "show[ing] up at our events, even after we selected another candidate." The about-face, however, has been underway for a while: Wildstein wrote back in November that Guy and his supporters seemed interested in switching to Sherrill, though he didn't indicate what was leading to this shift.

The Democratic primary field also includes Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, who, unlike the two House members, is from Hudson County. However, while Wildstein says political observers once anticipated that Fulop would be Guy's candidate, the two had a falling out last year.

Fulop is up with a new commercial touting his "reputation for standing up to party bosses," though his narrator doesn't go after Guy or Stack. Instead, the ad commends Fulop for challenging then-Rep. Bob Menendez, who was just sentenced to 11 years in prison, for renomination back in 2004.

The spot also lauds the mayor for opposing "South Jersey powerbroker George Norcross and his unholy alliance with Chris Christie to break up union contracts." The commercial does not mention that one of Fulop's intraparty opponents is a longtime Norcross ally, former state Senate President Steve Sweeney. (The other two major Democratic candidates are Newark Mayor Ras Baraka and New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller.)

A pro-Gottheimer group called Affordable New Jersey, meanwhile, is focusing on a completely different subject in its new ad, which the Globe says has almost $1 million behind it.

"Jersey's problem? A crazy expensive, 'are you f#$*!% kidding me?,' 'who can afford this?' problem," declares the narrator for Affordable New Jersey. (The censored profanity is spelled out on screen with those letters and symbols.) That's followed by Gottheimer telling the audience he'll lower taxes.

OH-Gov

Ohio Treasurer Robert Sprague announced Wednesday that he was backing businessman Vivek Ramaswamy's anticipated campaign for governor rather than competing against him in the GOP primary. Sprague declared later that day that he would instead run for secretary of state, which will be open because Republican Frank LaRose is termed out.

While Sprague had filed campaign paperwork to replace Gov. Mike DeWine late last month, two recent polls showed him barely registering in a primary dominated by Ramaswamy.

The hardline Club for Growth publicized an internal poll from WPA Intelligence on Tuesday finding Ramaswamy lapping Attorney General Dave Yost 57-26, with Sprague at just 6%. While the Club has not endorsed Ramaswamy, its polling memo touted his "commanding lead" and said he'd do even better if he receives Donald Trump's backing.

A separate survey for an explicitly pro-Ramaswamy group also showed him defeating Yost 52-18 as Sprague took just 2%. Yost, who announced his campaign late last month, has yet to respond with better numbers.

While Ramaswamy has yet to declare that he's running for Ohio's top job, he seemed quite sure about his plans in a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal. The would-be-governor told reporter John McCormick he'd do "whatever is required" to secure a "decisive mandate."

And while Ramaswamy was recently ejected from Trump's panel on government spending—the "temporary organization," in government parlance, known as DOGE—by Elon Musk, it seems that the two are united in wanting Ramaswamy to be in power in Ohio. Musk recently called his former co-chair "Governor Ramaswamy," comments McCormick writes are "a nod to his likely support."

House

CA-40

Art gallery owner Esther Kim Varet this week became the first notable Democrat to announce a campaign against Republican Rep. Young Kim. According to calculations from The Downballot, Donald Trump carried California's 40th District, which includes Tustin and other eastern Orange County communities, 49-47 last year as Young secured a third term by a decisive 55-45 margin.

Kim Varet was recently the subject of a New York Times profile focusing on her progressive politics, including her efforts to showcase the work of artists of color. Her Los Angeles-based gallery has expanded since its 2012 opening to include multiple locations in the United States and overseas, and the Orange County Register says that she's about to open a venue in Tustin.

Kim Varet also used both interviews to talk about her Korean American heritage, something she has in common with the congresswoman and much of the electorate. Kim Varet's grandparents fled North Korea, while her parents emigrated from South Korea to the United States.

Judges

WI Supreme Court

Conservative Brad Schimel has launched a commercial attacking Susan Crawford that features a digitally manipulated image of his progressive opponent, something Crawford argues could violate a new state law. The offensive comes nearly two months ahead of their April 1 general election, which will determine whether conservatives or liberals have a majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

Schimel's ad depicts Crawford with her mouth closed, while the original photo shows her smiling. Crawford's team highlighted the law requiring political ads to include a disclosure if they use audio or videos made by generative artificial intelligence, something Schimel's spot lacks.

Schimel's team responded that his commercial was only "edited" by AI, making a disclosure unnecessary. Crawford was not persuaded and filed an ethics complaint Wednesday.

Crawford's campaign also pushed back on the substance of the attack, which portrays the former head of Wisconsin's criminal appeals department as weak on crime. Schimel's narrator says she "didn't bother filing the appeal in time" that was necessary to keep a convicted rapist in prison in 2001, "letting the rapist walk free."

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel explains that a subsequent report from the state's attorney general said that another lawyer and two subordinates miscalculated the deadline to appeal a lower court ruling that overturned the conviction of an accused rapist. The Associated Press' Scott Bauer adds that Crawford responded by ordering a review of the deadlines for each upcoming appeal and that she "personally calculated the deadline for petitions for review to the state Supreme Court."

Mayors & County Leaders

Lehigh County, PA Executive

Former state Rep. Justin Simmons this week became the first Republican to enter this year's race to replace retiring Democrat Phil Armstrong as executive of Lehigh County, a blue-leaning community north of Philadelphia. Armstrong is supporting state Rep. Josh Siegel, who has the May 20 Democratic primary to himself.