Morning Digest: Republicans are starting to give up on Kari Lake

And she could help bring the Arizona GOP down with her

Arizona Republican Kari Lake, with a supporter (credit: Kari Lake Facebook)

Leading Off

AZ-Sen

While Republicans continue to hope that far-right conspiracy theorist Kari Lake can flip Arizona's open U.S. Senate seat, the Arizona Republic's Ronald Hansen reports that major donors and outside groups aren't investing much to aid her in what's become an uphill battle against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego.

Hansen, citing data from AdImpact, writes that Lake and her allies have reserved $12 million in ad time, which is less than a fifth of the $65 million that Gallego's side has booked. And though Donald Trump endorsed Lake, a former TV anchor who continues to deny her 2022 loss to now-Gov. Katie Hobbs, other Republicans aren't so enamored of her.

That list includes Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who notably did not mention Arizona as a top pickup opportunity in an April interview with Politico's Burgess Everett. When Everett asked him about the omission, McConnell responded, "You don't know in April who might be able to win." A few weeks later the Senate Leadership Fund, a powerful super PAC run by McConnell's allies, left the Grand Canyon State off its list of states where it was reserving ad time.

Lake has done little in the ensuing months to convince her intraparty critics that she can flip the seat held by retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who remains a member of the Democratic caucus almost two years after leaving the party. If anything, she seems just as focused on her last race: Last month, she asked the state Supreme Court to order a redo of the 2022 gubernatorial election in Maricopa County.

A few weeks later, Lake won the July 30 primary for her current race by an unimpressive 55-40 margin against Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who had little money and lacked his opponent's considerable name recognition.

Lake insisted to reporters afterward that she'd scored a "landslide victory" even though she "didn't spend a penny" on her primary. But though Lake did indeed avoid attacking Lamb on the air, she started spending plenty of pennies in May on commercials hitting Gallego and portraying herself as a border security hawk.

It's possible that well-funded GOP organizations could still charge in on Lake's behalf, but the longer they wait, the more it will cost them. That's because campaigns and outside groups have a major incentive to make TV reservations well ahead of time so they can lock in cheaper ad rates before high demand brings prices up closer to Election Day.

And that's going to be a serious concern in Arizona, a longtime GOP stronghold where Democrats have been gaining strength up and down the ballot in recent years. Thanks to those shifting political patterns, the state is hosting an unusually large array of competitive races this year, with very high stakes.

"There’s a lot of saturation of the airwaves, and that just ratchets up the cost even more," Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin told Hansen in explaining why it will only become ever more expensive for latecomers to make a dent on the airwaves. Hansen also notes that early and mail voting starts on Oct. 9, so Lake's erstwhile allies would need to act soon, before voters lock in their choices.

Yet despite her many flaws, Trump could still drag Lake across the finish line if he manages to defeat Kamala Harris in Arizona. A weak effort from Lake, however, could still hurt the GOP's efforts in the many close races where Republicans are on the defensive further down the ticket.

These include both chambers of the state legislature, where the GOP enjoys just a 16-14 majority in the state Senate and a similarly small 31-29 edge in the state House. Republicans have turned back several serious Democratic efforts to flip both chambers over the past several cycles, but Lake's problems could make their job all the more difficult at a time when they have little room for error.

Democrats are also once again targeting two GOP congressmen who only narrowly won in 2022: David Schweikert in the Phoenix-based 1st District and Juan Ciscomani in the 6th District around Tucson. In addition, Democrats have the chance to take their first majority on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors since 1968, while progressives are also working to pass an abortion rights amendment at the ballot box and unseat two conservative justices on the Supreme Court.

Election Night

AK-AL

National Republicans got some unwelcome news out of Alaska after businessman Nick Begich finished ahead of Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom in Tuesday's top-four primary, a development that could make it more difficult for the party to present a united front against Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola this fall. 

With about 96,000 ballots tabulated as of Wednesday morning in the Last Frontier's at-large House seat, which the Associated Press estimates represents 87% of the total primary vote, Peltola is in first place with 50%. The two most prominent Republicans in the race, Begich and Dahlstrom, respectively take 27% and 20%. Fourth place, as we'll explain below, will go to a little-known candidate, but it remains to be seen which one and which party they'll represent.

Under Alaska's first-in-the-nation top-four system, all the candidates in each race run on a single ballot, with the four highest vote-getters in each contest advancing to the fall general election. Ranked-choice voting will then be used in the second round to determine a winner. There was no question that Begich and Dahlstrom would have the votes to move forward, but Begich promised to end his campaign if he finished behind Dahlstrom. Dahlstrom, for her part, said she'd keep running no matter what.

The many Republicans whom Begich alienated both before and during his two failed campaigns for this seat in 2022 (he lost both the special and regular elections) wanted to do what they could to end his campaign in August, and Donald Trump, Gov. Mike Dunleavy, and House GOP leaders rallied around Dahlstrom. However, both Begich and Dahlstrom responded to Tuesday's results by making it clear they would keep running in the second round. Trump carried Alaska 53-43 in 2020, but continuing GOP infighting could help Peltola prevail again. 

The remaining 3% of the vote is split between nine different candidates, and one of them will advance to the general election. A Republican named Matthew Salisbury enjoys a 599-539 vote lead over John Wayne Howe, a member of the Alaskan Independence Party, with Democrat Eric Hafner taking 373 votes. Gerald Heikes, a Republican perennial candidate that national Democrats spent close to $1 million to elevate, is just behind with 371 votes.

It may be some time before we know who took the fourth and final general election spot. Elections in this vast state are conducted almost entirely by mail, and ballots postmarked by Tuesday will be counted if administrators receive them within 10 days of the primary.

FL-Sen (D)

Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell defeated businessman Stanley Campbell 69-20 to win the Democratic nomination to take on Republican Sen. Rick Scott in Florida, a state where Democrats have experienced several ugly election cycles in a row. It remains to be seen whether outside groups will direct money to help Mucarsel-Powell, who is the first Latina Democrat to win a statewide primary, in what will be a challenging race against the wealthy incumbent.

FL-01 (R)

Far-right Rep. Matt Gaetz turned back retired Navy officer Aaron Dimmock 73-23 to win renomination in the safely red 1st District around Pensacola. Allies of Kevin McCarthy deployed over $3 million to beat Gaetz, the Donald Trump-backed firebrand who led the successful charge to remove McCarthy as speaker in October. However, while many anti-Gaetz attack ads attracted attention by highlighting allegations that the congressman had had sex with a 17-year-old girl, they weren't nearly enough to cost him victory.

Gaetz's triumph also means that McCarthy's "revenge tour" against the House Republicans who crossed him last year was almost entirely an expensive failure. Five of the six members of the "Gaetz Eight" who ran again won their primaries, with Virginia Rep. Bob Good the one outlier. Not coincidentally, state Sen. John McGuire's narrow victory over Good also marked the only time that Trump and McCarthy were united behind a challenger.

FL-08 (R)

Former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos outpaced businessman John Hearton 72-22 in the GOP primary to succeed retiring Rep. Bill Posey, who timed his retirement announcement to ensure that Haridopolos would avoid any serious intraparty opposition. Those machinations paid off, and Haridopolos is now on a glide path in the general election for Florida's 8th District, a constituency in the Cape Canaveral area that backed Trump 58-41 in 2020.

FL-09 (R)     

Wealthy businessman Thomas Chalifoux defeated former Osceola County Commissioner John Quiñones 50-26 in the GOP primary to face Democratic Rep. Darren Soto in Florida's 9th District around Orlando. This district, which is home to a large Latino electorate, favored Joe Biden by a wide 58-41 margin four years ago. A non-Latino candidate like Chalifoux will likely struggle to put it in play against Soto, who, like many of his constituents, is of Puerto Rican descent.

FL-13 (D)

Democrat Whitney Fox, a former official with the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority, defeated former Department of Health and Human Services official Sabrina Bousbar 58-17 in the primary to face far-right Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in Florida's 13th District. Republicans passed an aggressive gerrymander after the most recent census that helped them flip this St. Petersburg-area constituency, but Democrats hope the incumbent's antics will give them an opening in a district that backed Trump 53-46 in 2020.

FL-16 (R)

Veteran Rep. Vern Buchanan turned back Eddie Speir, a self-funding businessman who loaned his campaign $500,000, 61-39 in the Republican primary for the 16th District. Despite his relatively unimpressive margin, though, Buchanan should have no trouble securing a 10th term in a Sarasota-based seat that favored Trump 54-45 in the last presidential election.

FL-27 (R)

Miami-Dade County School Board member Lucia Baez-Geller outpaced former Key Biscayne Mayor Mike Davey 54-46 in the Democratic primary to face Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar.

Florida's 27th District, which is based in the Miami area, favored Donald Trump by a tiny 49.9-49.6 margin in 2020, but this area has been tough turf for Democrats further down the ballot. So far, major Democratic outside groups haven't reserved any ad time here.

Broward County, FL Sheriff (D)

Broward County Sheriff Gregory Tony defeated former Florida Department of Law Enforcement official Steve Geller 50-33 to win the Democratic primary, and he faces no Republican opposition in the fall. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed Tony in 2019 after permanently suspending Democratic Sheriff Scott Israel over his handling of the shootings at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School the previous year. At the time, Tony was a Republican but he soon switched parties.

Hillsborough County, FL State Attorney (D)

Andrew Warren decisively beat attorney Elizabeth Martinez Strauss 70-30 in the Democratic primary to regain his old job as the Tampa area's top prosecutor. DeSantis permanently suspended Warren in 2022 for, among other things, refusing to prosecute people who obtain or provide abortions, and the governor chose Republican Suzy Lopez to replace him.

Warren will now face Lopez as he seeks to once again serve as state attorney for Hillsborough County, a populous community that favored Biden 53-46 in 2020.

Miami-Dade County, FL Mayor

Democratic incumbent Daniella Levine Cava won reelection outright as mayor of Miami-Dade County taking 58% of the vote in Tuesday's officially nonpartisan primary, which was well over the majority she needed to avert a November general election; her nearest opponent, Republican Miami Lakes Mayor Manny Cid, was a distant second with 22%. 

Levine Cava's 2020 win made her one of the most prominent Democratic office-holders in the state, and she's frequently mentioned as a possible 2026 candidate for governor.

Miami-Dade County, FL Sheriff (D & R)

Democrat James Reyes and Republican Rosie Cordero-Stutz won their respective primaries ahead of the general election to become the first person elected sheriff of Miami-Dade County since the 1960s.

Reyes, who serves as Miami-Dade chief of public safety, beat Miami-Dade Police Lt. Rickey Mitchell 46-21. Cordero-Stutz, who had Trump's endorsement, won a much closer 11-way battle by defeating former Miami City Commissioner Joe Sanchez 24-22.

Miami-Dade County, FL Supervisor of Elections (D)

Former state Rep. J.C. Planas beat political consultant Willis Howard 46-39 in the Democratic primary to become Miami-Dade County's first elected supervisor of elections in decades.

Planas, who served in the legislature as a Republican more than a decade ago, will take on current Republican state Rep. Alina Garcia, who was unopposed in her own primary. After winning Trump's backing this spring, Garcia notably refused to push back against her benefactor's many election lies.

Orange and Osceola Counties, FL State Attorney (R)

Attorney Seth Hyman beat Army veteran Thomas Feiter 62-38 in the Republican primary to set up a three-way race to serve as the top prosecutor in the Orlando area. Florida's Ninth Judicial Circuit, which is made up of both Orange and Osceola counties, favored Biden by a wide 60-39 margin, but Hyman could still have an impact on this unusual contest.

Democrat Monique Worrell faced no intraparty opposition in her campaign to regain the job that DeSantis permanently suspended her from last year for her alleged failure to seek sufficiently serious penalties in cases of violent crime. DeSantis picked Republican Andrew Bain to replace her, but Bain decided to seek a full term as an independent.

Palm Beach County, FL State Attorney (D)

Alexcia Cox decisively beat attorney Gregg Lerman 64-18 in the Democratic primary to replace her boss, retiring Democratic State Attorney Dave Aronberg, as the top prosecutor for reliably blue Palm Beach County. Cox, who had several local officials on her side, is on track to become both the first Black person and the first woman to hold this post.

FL State Senate 7th District (R)

State Rep. Tom Leek defeated former St. Johns County Sheriff David Shoar, who had Trump's endorsement, 47-28 in a nasty Republican primary that was more expensive than almost any primary this year for the U.S. House. Leek, who had DeSantis in his corner, is now poised to easily win the general election for the dark red 7th Senate District around St. Augustine.

FL State Senate 25th District (D)

Former U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson suffered his latest election loss on Tuesday when he took a distant third in the Democratic primary for the reliably blue 25th Senate District in the Orlando area. State Rep. Kristen Arrington outpaced community leader Carmen Torres, who is the wife of term-limited state Sen. Victor Torres, 51-26. Grayson, who was already well into the perennial candidate stage of his career, finished last with 24%.

Senate

NJ-Sen

Democratic Sen. Bob Mendendez's resignation took effect on Tuesday, a month after he said he'd leave office following his conviction on federal corruption charges. His departure brings to a close an extremely long political career that began half a century ago, when a 20-year-old Menendez first won an election for school board in Union City. The New Jersey Globe's detailed retrospective is well worth reading.

Menendez is set to be succeeded by George Helmy, a former chief of staff for Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, who last week announced Helmy as his choice at a press conference. At that event, Helmy also pledged to step down right after the November general election, which would allow Murphy to install the winner of the race for a full six-year term about two months early. That in turn would give the victory—likely Democratic Rep. Andy Kim—a small boost in seniority in the Senate.

House

AZ-03

Former Phoenix Vice Mayor Yassamin Ansari finally secured the Democratic nomination for Arizona's safely blue 3rd District on Tuesday after a recount confirmed she'd defeated former state Sen. Raquel Terán by 39 votes in the July 30 primary. Terán, whose deficit stood at 42 votes before the review, conceded defeat in the race to succeed Rep. Ruben Gallego, a fellow Democrat who is the party's nominee for the Senate.

Ansari's tight victory came after an expensive battle that saw each contender benefit from almost $3 million in outside spending apiece in this Phoenix-based district. Ansari's top ally was Protect Progress, a super PAC aligned with the crypto industry, while Democratic Majority for Israel also spent on her behalf. Terán, meanwhile, had the support of several different organizations, including the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and the progressive Working Families Party.

Ansari, whose parents immigrated from Iran, is now poised to make history as the first Iranian American Democrat to serve in Congress. (Oklahoma Republican Stephanie Bice became its first Iranian American member following her 2020 win.)

As tight as the race was, however, the Arizona Republic notes that it wasn't quite the closest House primary in the Grand Canyon State over the last decade. In 2016, Republican Andy Biggs won the GOP nomination to replace retiring Rep. Matt Salmon by edging out Christine Jones by just 27 votes in the dark red 5th District. Biggs hasn't faced much of a fight ever since and didn't even draw a primary foe this cycle after voting to terminate Kevin McCarthy's speakership last fall.

MD-06

Republican Neil Parrott has released the first public poll of the race for Maryland's light-blue 6th Congressional District, which finds him trailing Democrat April McClain Delaney by a small 42-40 margin.

However, the memo for the survey, which was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, doesn't include any data on the presidential race. Joe Biden won the open 6th District, which stretches from exurban areas to the northwest of Washington, D.C., all the way to Maryland's western border, by a 54-44 margin in 2020, and Kamala Harris is likely to carry it for Democrats once again.

The memo also makes it seem like Republicans still wish Biden were running—echoing a bitter complaint of Donald Trump's—since it mentions the president's low approval rating multiple times. Any data on Trump or Harris are nowhere to be found (though respondents were likely asked about both).

Notably, the survey was co-sponsored by the NRCC, but the House GOP's official campaign committee doesn't seem to be backing Parrott's play in any significant way. Maryland's 6th is located almost entirely within the D.C. media market, but neither the NRCC nor its super PAC counterparts at the Congressional Leadership Fund have reserved any TV time there. 

The pro-Democratic House Majority PAC, by contrast, has booked more than $2 million in airtime, though it may not plan to spend much on this contest either. That's because Democrats are defending Virginia's 7th District, a more competitive seat where Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger decided not to seek reelection to concentrate on her 2025 bid for governor.

NE-02

A new poll of Nebraska's competitive 2nd Congressional District finds Republican Rep. Don Bacon narrowly leading Democratic challenger Tony Vargas—and unlike many other recent House surveys we've seen, it also includes numbers on the presidential race, which offer good news for Democrats.

The poll, conducted by Republican pollster Remington Research, puts Bacon ahead of Vargas by a 46-44 margin, which is similar to earlier surveys conducted before Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden at the top of the ticket. And that switch, as many other polls have suggested, appears to be paying off: Harris leads Donald Trump by a 50-42 margin, a better showing than Biden chalked up in any public polling—some of which had him trailing.

It's also better than Biden's performance in 2020, when he won the Omaha-based 2nd District 52-46 and captured its single electoral vote. Harris, of course, is hoping to perform the same feat, and she may bring Vargas along with her. Vargas appeared alongside vice presidential nominee Tim Walz at a rally in Omaha last weekend and was greeted rapturously by the crowd—a far larger audience than any House candidate could ever dream of commanding.

Donald Trump, meanwhile, doesn't seem to be making the same sort of play for Nebraska's 2nd. His running mate, JD Vance, is slated to be in Omaha on Wednesday, but he's there to attend a high-dollar fundraiser hosted by the Ricketts family and doesn't appear to be holding any public events.

NH-02

VoteVets has launched what appears to be the first negative TV ad of the Sept. 10 Democratic primary for New Hampshire's 2nd District, and its target is former state Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern. VoteVets, a prominent Democratic group that supports "veterans and national security experts," is backing former Biden administration official Maggie Goodlander, who served in the Navy Reserve.

Its new spot argues that Van Ostern, who lost the tight 2016 race for governor to Republican Chris Sununu, is a "perennial candidate," though he hasn't sought public office since he narrowly failed to convince the state legislature to appoint him secretary of state in 2018.

The narrator, who mispronounces the candidate's name as "Van Ah-stern" instead of "Van Oh-stern," goes on to portray him as a hypocrite for accepting corporate PAC money after previously denouncing politicians who do so. The ad concludes by praising Goodlander's family roots in the state. 

It remains to be seen how much VoteVets is spending on this campaign to help Goodlander win the nomination to succeed retiring Rep. Annie Kuster, who supports Van Ostern. Joe Biden in 2020 carried this consistency, which is based in western and northern New Hampshire, 54-45, so the Democratic nominee will be favored in the fall.

Ballot Measures

OH Ballot

As promised, redistricting reform supporters filed a lawsuit this week before the Ohio Supreme Court after the state's Republican-run Ballot Board adopted deceptive ballot language summarizing their amendment to end partisan gerrymandering. The suit asks the justices to order the board to draft language that reformers say would more accurately describe the amendment.

Prosecutors & Sheriffs

Los Angeles County, CA District Attorney

UC Berkeley, polling on behalf of the Los Angeles Times, finds former federal prosecutor Nathan Hochman decisively defeating Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascón 45-20 in the general election to serve as the top prosecutor for America's most populous county.

This is the first poll we've seen of the officially nonpartisan contest between Hochman, who ran for California attorney general in 2022 as a Republican but now identifies as an independent, and Gascón, a Democrat who's called himself the "godfather of progressive prosecutors."

The incumbent started to earn that label over a decade ago—and 350 miles to the north—when San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom appointed him to replace District Attorney Kamala Harris following her 2010 election as state attorney general. (That was one of the last official acts from Newsom, who resigned days later to assume the role of lieutenant governor.)

Gascón, though, decided not to seek reelection in 2019, a decision that came shortly before he relocated back to his hometown of Los Angeles to prepare to challenge a fellow Democrat, Los Angeles County District Attorney Jackie Lacey. (Harris herself had also swapped Northern California for Southern when she relocated to Los Angeles in 2014 after marrying Doug Emhoff.) Gascón, who had Harris' endorsement, emphasized his commitment to criminal justice reform and defeated Lacey 54-46.

The new district attorney, however, took over at a time when crime was on the rise nationally. Opponents of his reforms, including many of his own subordinates, didn't hesitate to blame him for the spike and even tried to recall him from office early. And while those efforts failed, Gascón has frequently found himself on the defensive during his campaign for a second term.

Eleven different opponents lined up to take on Gascón, including Hochman, who had unsuccessfully challenged Democratic Attorney General Rob Bonta in 2022 as a Republican. The incumbent took first in the nonpartisan primary in March, though his 25% of the vote was far short of the majority he needed to win outright. Hochman finished in second place with 16%, earning him a one-on-one matchup with Gascón in November.

In his race against Bonta, Hochman predictably lost dark blue Los Angeles County in a 67-33 landslide, but the newly minted independent has had far greater success in convincing donors that this race is winnable. Hochman ended June with a staggering fundraising advantage, stockpiling more than $1 million while Gascón had less than $50,000 in his war chest.

Hochman and his third-party allies have been airing ads arguing that the district attorney is unable to protect the public, while Gascón, who does not appear to have received any major air support, is still hoping to frame this as a race between a Democrat and a Republican.

"Mr. Hochman is gambling on voters forgetting that he remained a Republican until 2022—that’s six years of Donald Trump’s hate and bigotry," his team told the Los Angeles Times in response to the new poll. "In Los Angeles, that’s a risky bet."

Other Races

WA Land Commissioner

With all counties certifying their vote totals on Tuesday night, the top-two primary for commissioner of public lands in Washington will go to a recount.

Democrat Dave Upthegrove, who was in third place on election night two weeks ago, now sits in the all-important second slot, just 51 votes ahead of Republican Sue Kuehl Pederson—a difference of three-thousandths of one percent. Another Republican, former Rep. Jamie Herrera Beutler, is comfortably in first by around 23,000 votes.

If Upthegrove's lead holds up, he'd be the favorite against Herrera Beutler due to Washington's blue tilt: The five Democrats who ran in the primary combined for 57% while the two Republicans together took just 43%. But if Kuehl Pederson comes from behind in the recount, Democrats would be locked out of the general election for a statewide post for the second time in three election cycles.

Poll Pile

• NE-Sen-A: YouGov for Dan Osborn: Deb Fischer (R-inc): 43, Dan Osborn (I): 41

• VA-Sen: Roanoke College: Tim Kaine (D-inc): 49, Hung Cao (R): 38 (47-44 Harris in two-way; 45-42 Harris with third-party candidates)

Ad Roundup

• AZ-Sen: Ruben Gallego (D) - anti-Kari Lake (R)

• NV-Sen: WinSenate - anti-Sam Brown (R); Americans for Prosperity - anti-Jacky Rosen (D-inc)

• OH-Sen: Bernie Moreno (R) - anti-Sherrod Brown (D-inc) (part of $25 million buy)

• PA-Sen: Bob Casey (D-inc); anti-Dave McCormick (R); DSCC - anti-McCormick; One Nation - anti-Casey

• DE-Gov: Matt Meyer (D)

• CT-05: George Logan (R) - anti-Jahana Hayes (D-inc)

• NE-02: Tony Vargas (D) (here and here); Don Bacon (R-inc) - anti-Vargas

• NH-02: Maggie Goodlander (D) (here and here)

• VA-02: Missy Cotter Smasal (D) - anti-Jen Kiggans (R-inc)

• San Francisco, CA Mayor: Daniel Lurie