Tester's wins have always been squeakers here in MT, but polling trends are concerning. Two issues seem to be at play:
1) influx of people moving to MT seeking "redder" pastures in last several years, and 2) barrage of negative ads across media (people tuning out). Tester needs to up his game here. Rallies, more meet & greets, debate with Sheehy, campaign event with Tim Walz. Trying to 'do something' via LTEs & phone-banking.
The fact that they got such divergent results doesn't prove they're not credible. Let's say the real sentiment in August was even and it's now Sheehy +4. They got samples that were somewhat off from that and didn't massage them.
Yea all the recent polls seem to follow a very similar pattern of massively undersampling younger voters (including those under 50). Whether that's due to a perception of the electorate being much older or just being unable to reach enough young voters who knows. But as I've said before, Montana is a high turnout state, this is a presidential year, you have a strongly contested senate race and you got an abortion amendment. There's something very skewed here.
The latest edition of Sarah Longwell’s podcast The Focus Group highlights the OH, MT, and TX Senate races. The focus groups are made up of Trump voters who are undecided on each state’s Senate race. Very interesting (but also scary) listening.
Julie Stauch is leading the Omaha coordinated campaign. She has worked on many campaigns, managing a couple of Leonard Boswell’s successful reelection campaigns in IA-03 and also Mazie Hirono’s Democratic Senate primary. Most recently ran Mike Franken’s 2022 IA-Sen bid.
16 years is not such a long time! We should not be defeatist about this. And the Harris-Walz campaign, which is swimming in cash, should make a play in both Florida and Texas, IMO. Show up, run some powerful ads and don't give voters there the impression that the national ticket is writing them off.
Yes, although Governor Ron DeSantis damaged his brand when he ran for POTUS, thinking he could ride on the Trumpism agenda he executed in FL.
While DeSantis is still Governor, he's going to be more of a lame duck as we get closer to election day. It all depends on how strong the turnout is in FL.
I edited my original comment to reflect the fact that it was the FBI investigation, not the controversy, that happened when Gillum was the Democratic Gubernatorial Nominee.
I believe Gillum was indicted but found not guilty of lying to the FBI.
Three things on Graham 1) Her voting record was designed to get her reelected in FL-02. The previous Dem congressman from the area Allen Boyd was also one of the most right-leaning members of the Dem caucus in his time and would stand out for things like agreeing to negotiate on privatizing social security with the Bush Administration. Things that we toxic to any mainstream Dem voter, that was essentially her model and when mid-decade redistricting carved up her seat she really didn't have enough time for the "evolution" of her FL-02 positions to make her palatable to the rest of the state.
2) North Florida is one of the least populated and least Dem areas of the state.
3) This is subjective but every indication I saw and heard personally and from people on the ground was that her campaign was as exciting as dry paint.
In general, there is quite a bit of evidence against reverse coattails. However, Robinson is so far beyond the pale that it is possible that he may help Harris around the margins, which might be enough to secure her victory in NC.
I totally agree and have said that many times before on this board. This might be the one time in 100 where it might matter by just a fraction of a point. No matter what the polls say by Election Day I think Harris gets NC
Usually goes the other way. The polling shows a Democratic win in NC but then the Republican prevails. The best hope Dems have throughout the battlegrounds is that pollsters are weighting too heavily on obsolete 2016 and 2020 electorates just as pollsters weighted too heavily on Obama electorates during the Trump era. We saw signs of that in 2022 , in NC and elsewhere, and it's not unreasonable to think the same could happen again. I'm certainly getting too mentally invested in that narrative, but after 2022, it wouldn't surprise me.
If this helps us I wouldn't expect it to happen via reverse coattails — the top of the ticket doing better because someone downballot is doing better.
Instead, if it helps us it's by damaging the republican brand across the state. Robinson is a statewide elected republican that enjoyed the party's support up until now, when he was already known to be extreme. Persuadable voters might find it easier to conclude that Trump is a toxic extremist when they're willing to conclude that Robinson is a toxic extremist. If the two most prominent republican candidates in the state are toxic extremists, it's not much of a leap to conclude that applies to the whole party.
Not saying that will or won't happen. If we do benefit across the state, I'd expect it'd be that way and not reverse coattails.
I very much agree with your thought process. I do think that if she ultimately wins NC that parsing out whether it was because she tied Trump and Robinson together or because of reverse coattails in the way that we think about that term, both sides will claim that to be the case and it'll be essentially impossible to disprove either argument.
The Harris campaign and loads of political professionals appear to think the Republican Party in NC is going to take a bath because of the gubernatorial campaign.
I really hesitate to say that it's "never been a thing". One, it's too broad of a claim to make. Second... how could the causality be proven from one race to another?
More specifically, if it turns out that Stein wins NC-Gov solidly and Harris wins the state by the narrowest of margins, there could be so many things attributed to her winning. Stein's solid performance and Robinson's meltdown would almost certainly be one of them - among others.
In short, I don't think it's a falsifiable question.
We can look at examples of how the top of the ticket performed as expected, but the 2nd highest office in the ballot was a wild overperformance, and didn't translate to trickling up to the top of the ticket.
Most recently we had NH-Gov and VT-Gov, as well as ME-Sen in 2020.
In New Hampshire John Sununu (R) won by 32 points. Obviously that didn't translate upwards ,as Biden won it by 8, which was an improvement over Clinton's performance 4 years earlier.
Phil Scott (R) in Vermont won by 41(!). That's didn't stop Biden from winning the State by 35 points. That's a 76 point delta in Republican performance. No way that exists if reverse coat tails existed.
Susanne Collins (R) won by a comfortable 9 point margin, the same margin Biden carried the state in on the same ballot.
You can go back as far as you want and pick and 2nd highest office overperformer and how that simply doesn't help the highest office in that same election. Amy Klobuchar won by 35 in Minneaota, while Obama won by the customary ~8 point win average Democrats win that state by. That same election John Tester and Scott Brown won Montana and Ohio by comfortable single digit margins, but Obama still got blown out by Romney at the same time.
Reverse coattails simply don't exist, and they've never existed.
He would be the favorite especially after the Adams disaster, and to a lesser extent DeBlasio's phoning in his second term. Cuomo may be an SOB but he is a competent one and NYC wants competence right now.
I would like to think he wouldn't be a massive favorite given just how bad the accusations of his misconduct are. Maybe he starts out in the lead because of name rec and the rest of the field not being strong, but if his opponents are competent (a decent sized if) they can hammer him like crazy.
I'd be surprised if he were a real favorite. He may have the highest name recognition and look like the favorite at the beginning. I feel terrible about him running - what a nightmare!
Despise him and also doubt he'd be the frontrunner. It's *possible* we could see some early polling that shows him atop the field just because of name rec, but I suspect his vote share would be low in any such hypothetical scenario. Wait until an actual race unfolds and things would change. Also, I think opponents would be unafraid to hammer him because all of the fear and intimidation tactics he was able to deploy as governor have now gone poof.
And I swear to god, I will lose my mind if we replace Adams with Cuomo.
Without any actual empirical polling data available to me; I would still bet that his unfavorable ratings within the NYC Democratic primary electorate is high(not to mention the absolutely brutal negative attacks that would be launched at him by his opponents)
It could be used, but I don't know how potent it would be. I think the point would be made indirectly by some people calling themselves the "new generation of leadership" or something.
Cuomo was born in 1957 so by the time he would be in office, he would be 68. Bloomberg left office when he was 71 and after serving multiple four-year terms.
Doubt age is going to be a factor at all in the race.
A young candidate (60 or under) could/would probably turn the race into fresh face vs. a corrupt elderly sex pest from the past who is the problem not the solution.
There definitely seems to be a phenomenon where R-leaning (but not diehard) voters can sense when a Republican isn’t right in the head and grok the Dem is the sane choice, but don’t apply it to Trump.
It's a cult of a single personality: Donald John Trump Sr.
This isn't a GOP cult. When Trump is NOT on the ballot, the Republican candidate or issue underperforms to varying degrees. When he is, the coattails aren't as strong as with other movements. Everything is about Trump.
Yeah I don't get it either. How is it that tens of thousands of Arizona voters , as one example, seem poised to think Donald Trump is of sufficient temperament and character to earn their vote but find Kari Lake to be a bridge too far?
That's the one that makes the most sense to me because I think Gallego is going to significantly overperform among Hispanics, especially Hispanic men. I wouldn't be surprised if the Hispanic gender gap is 10-15 points higher in the presidential race than it is in the senate race. But Robinson and Trump is one where the crazy shit Robinson said, Trump has said similar crazy shit on the same topics.
I'm glad that the powers that be in the party have decided to use their fundraising advantages to expand the playing field; I'm confident that it's the right move
Looks like some Vance text messages being critical of Trump years after he claims he "changed his tune" in 2020 said Trump "so thoroughly failed to deliver", and referring to him as "the emperor"
This by itself is at most going to be a 1 line potshot kn Monday's debate, but it's more of the trickle trickle trickle we've been seeing within the Trump campaign
Yeah, but where are the Lincoln Project’s ads being broadcast? They should be shown on Fox, Newsmax and OAN. Are they ever? George Conway and his Anti-PsychoPAC are making a commendable effort to hit Trump on his home turf, including Fox.
I don’t have the answer to that except to say that the Lincoln Project would likely hit resistance even if Steve Schmidt & Co. have been long-time Republican strategists.
Fox News maybe not but Newsmax and OAN would likely not approve. OAN is essentially the RT of MAGA and Trump.
The Montana Senate race has been bugging me. 538 shows two polls from RMG Research:
August 15: Tester +5
September 24: Sheehy +7
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/montana/
That’s a 12-point swing in just over a month, from the same pollster! This doesn’t seem credible to me. Any thoughts?
I think both polls are wrong and that the race is very close.
Agree. Something stinks about the polling coming out of MT.
Something is rotten in the state of Montana.
Tester's wins have always been squeakers here in MT, but polling trends are concerning. Two issues seem to be at play:
1) influx of people moving to MT seeking "redder" pastures in last several years, and 2) barrage of negative ads across media (people tuning out). Tester needs to up his game here. Rallies, more meet & greets, debate with Sheehy, campaign event with Tim Walz. Trying to 'do something' via LTEs & phone-banking.
I trust Tester as a campaigner and politician
I do too, but if polls reveal he's trailing, I hope his campaign can effectively respond. This isn't the Montana of 2018.
All the more reason to get Tester the support he needs.
The fact that they got such divergent results doesn't prove they're not credible. Let's say the real sentiment in August was even and it's now Sheehy +4. They got samples that were somewhat off from that and didn't massage them.
I see my post was unclear. I was suggesting that a 12-point swing wasn’t credible – not that the pollster lacks credibility.
Yeah, that's probably too big a swing to have actually happened.
Yea all the recent polls seem to follow a very similar pattern of massively undersampling younger voters (including those under 50). Whether that's due to a perception of the electorate being much older or just being unable to reach enough young voters who knows. But as I've said before, Montana is a high turnout state, this is a presidential year, you have a strongly contested senate race and you got an abortion amendment. There's something very skewed here.
The latest edition of Sarah Longwell’s podcast The Focus Group highlights the OH, MT, and TX Senate races. The focus groups are made up of Trump voters who are undecided on each state’s Senate race. Very interesting (but also scary) listening.
Any highlights? Sounds interesting
Julie Stauch is leading the Omaha coordinated campaign. She has worked on many campaigns, managing a couple of Leonard Boswell’s successful reelection campaigns in IA-03 and also Mazie Hirono’s Democratic Senate primary. Most recently ran Mike Franken’s 2022 IA-Sen bid.
16 years is not such a long time! We should not be defeatist about this. And the Harris-Walz campaign, which is swimming in cash, should make a play in both Florida and Texas, IMO. Show up, run some powerful ads and don't give voters there the impression that the national ticket is writing them off.
Yes, definitely about FL- and TX-Sen, but 16 years is a very long time in partisan politics.
Tell me about it; Florida has not elected a Democratic governor since 1994
Well, in 2018, DeSantis beat Gillum by only 4/10ths of a percent: 49.59–49.19.
A narrow loss is still a loss though. Florida has only gotten more Republican since.
Yes, although Governor Ron DeSantis damaged his brand when he ran for POTUS, thinking he could ride on the Trumpism agenda he executed in FL.
While DeSantis is still Governor, he's going to be more of a lame duck as we get closer to election day. It all depends on how strong the turnout is in FL.
I would argue that deSantis is already a lame duck(the next legislative session is going to be fun for me)
It's possible Gillum could have won the FL-GOV race if he didn't have the FBI investigation clouding his campaign.
On the other hand, Gwen Graham wouldn't have been a bad Democratic Gubernatorial Nominee if she won the primary. Unless there's something I'm missing.
The controversy was years afterwards(the real controversy; not the fake one about the Broadway tickets)
I edited my original comment to reflect the fact that it was the FBI investigation, not the controversy, that happened when Gillum was the Democratic Gubernatorial Nominee.
I believe Gillum was indicted but found not guilty of lying to the FBI.
Three things on Graham 1) Her voting record was designed to get her reelected in FL-02. The previous Dem congressman from the area Allen Boyd was also one of the most right-leaning members of the Dem caucus in his time and would stand out for things like agreeing to negotiate on privatizing social security with the Bush Administration. Things that we toxic to any mainstream Dem voter, that was essentially her model and when mid-decade redistricting carved up her seat she really didn't have enough time for the "evolution" of her FL-02 positions to make her palatable to the rest of the state.
2) North Florida is one of the least populated and least Dem areas of the state.
3) This is subjective but every indication I saw and heard personally and from people on the ground was that her campaign was as exciting as dry paint.
Boyd Social Security story: (https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2005-feb-02-na-speech2-story.html)
Get some boots on the ground as well. Harris has some in FL.
I hope they’re white knee-high’s like DeSantis’ boots!
"Harris has some [boots on the ground] in FL" must be the understatement of the day!
"Our campaign continues to gain momentum like never before."
– Mark Robinson
Yup, that’s what happens when you are in free fall – you have great momentum. At least briefly.
9.81 meters per second
Momentum helping Democrats, sure!
Favorite newsletter of the day. Thank you. And really interesting about Indiana!
Thank you so much, Jessica! I really appreciate you telling us.
CNN Poll: Harris and Trump are tied in North Carolina, while vice president leads in Nebraska’s 2nd District
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/27/politics/cnn-poll-harris-trump-north-carolina-nebraska/index.html
Democrat Josh Stein, who leads Robinson, the lieutenant governor, 53% to 36%, among likely voters in the North Carolina governor’s race.
I still contend that this will benefit the entire slate, top to bottom
Reverse coattails have never been a thing. Still, not having a real governor's race doesn't hurt.
That's your opinion; I don't particularly agree
In general, there is quite a bit of evidence against reverse coattails. However, Robinson is so far beyond the pale that it is possible that he may help Harris around the margins, which might be enough to secure her victory in NC.
PA last midterms would seem to say otherwise.
I think reverse coattails may be the incorrect term here.
Coattails: the yop of the ticket boosting the bottom (see, Obama, 2008).
Reverse coattails would be the bottom of the ticket boosting the top. Say, running candidates in all the races, etc.
I think the better term here may be "negative coattails" where the top is so bad it hurts everyone downticket.
I totally agree and have said that many times before on this board. This might be the one time in 100 where it might matter by just a fraction of a point. No matter what the polls say by Election Day I think Harris gets NC
Usually goes the other way. The polling shows a Democratic win in NC but then the Republican prevails. The best hope Dems have throughout the battlegrounds is that pollsters are weighting too heavily on obsolete 2016 and 2020 electorates just as pollsters weighted too heavily on Obama electorates during the Trump era. We saw signs of that in 2022 , in NC and elsewhere, and it's not unreasonable to think the same could happen again. I'm certainly getting too mentally invested in that narrative, but after 2022, it wouldn't surprise me.
Larry Sabato agrees with me(it's a debatable topic for sure); but this might be the one time exception to a general rule
Fun factoid: the last Republican to win the Presidency without North Carolina, Ike in 1956.
If this helps us I wouldn't expect it to happen via reverse coattails — the top of the ticket doing better because someone downballot is doing better.
Instead, if it helps us it's by damaging the republican brand across the state. Robinson is a statewide elected republican that enjoyed the party's support up until now, when he was already known to be extreme. Persuadable voters might find it easier to conclude that Trump is a toxic extremist when they're willing to conclude that Robinson is a toxic extremist. If the two most prominent republican candidates in the state are toxic extremists, it's not much of a leap to conclude that applies to the whole party.
Not saying that will or won't happen. If we do benefit across the state, I'd expect it'd be that way and not reverse coattails.
This is what some people mean by reverse coattails (I don’t think turnout will change but the brand is messy across the board)
I very much agree with your thought process. I do think that if she ultimately wins NC that parsing out whether it was because she tied Trump and Robinson together or because of reverse coattails in the way that we think about that term, both sides will claim that to be the case and it'll be essentially impossible to disprove either argument.
I think Larry Sabato is going to do an after action report on this after November 5(I very much look forward to his take)
I am really shocked how Robinson got elected as Lt. Governor in the first place if it means he and his campaign are imploding now.
Nevertheless, we should thank him for his service to the country by being in the NC-GOV race. /s
The Harris campaign and loads of political professionals appear to think the Republican Party in NC is going to take a bath because of the gubernatorial campaign.
I really hesitate to say that it's "never been a thing". One, it's too broad of a claim to make. Second... how could the causality be proven from one race to another?
More specifically, if it turns out that Stein wins NC-Gov solidly and Harris wins the state by the narrowest of margins, there could be so many things attributed to her winning. Stein's solid performance and Robinson's meltdown would almost certainly be one of them - among others.
In short, I don't think it's a falsifiable question.
We can look at examples of how the top of the ticket performed as expected, but the 2nd highest office in the ballot was a wild overperformance, and didn't translate to trickling up to the top of the ticket.
Most recently we had NH-Gov and VT-Gov, as well as ME-Sen in 2020.
In New Hampshire John Sununu (R) won by 32 points. Obviously that didn't translate upwards ,as Biden won it by 8, which was an improvement over Clinton's performance 4 years earlier.
Phil Scott (R) in Vermont won by 41(!). That's didn't stop Biden from winning the State by 35 points. That's a 76 point delta in Republican performance. No way that exists if reverse coat tails existed.
Susanne Collins (R) won by a comfortable 9 point margin, the same margin Biden carried the state in on the same ballot.
You can go back as far as you want and pick and 2nd highest office overperformer and how that simply doesn't help the highest office in that same election. Amy Klobuchar won by 35 in Minneaota, while Obama won by the customary ~8 point win average Democrats win that state by. That same election John Tester and Scott Brown won Montana and Ohio by comfortable single digit margins, but Obama still got blown out by Romney at the same time.
Reverse coattails simply don't exist, and they've never existed.
Again; your opinion; only an opinion; and to be clear, I never used the terminology 'reverse coattails'(just want to be clear about that)
It's possible that their not existing is the general case, but that there are some exceptions.
You are correct; good post
no way KH loses NC if Stein is really ahead by 17 pts.
Merrideth College chimes in with the same 48-48 in NC. Suffolk in AZ comes in Dump ahead 48-42, cmon Suffolk do better.
If the race is actually tied in AZ, being off by 6 now and then wouldn't be surprising.
How do we feel about Cuomo running for mayor of NYC? I don't like him but he'd have to be the favorite.
Not in a million years would I consider him the favorite
He would be the favorite especially after the Adams disaster, and to a lesser extent DeBlasio's phoning in his second term. Cuomo may be an SOB but he is a competent one and NYC wants competence right now.
He’s a shady DINO. Just like the mayor they have now.
Agree to disagree
I would like to think he wouldn't be a massive favorite given just how bad the accusations of his misconduct are. Maybe he starts out in the lead because of name rec and the rest of the field not being strong, but if his opponents are competent (a decent sized if) they can hammer him like crazy.
I'd be surprised if he were a real favorite. He may have the highest name recognition and look like the favorite at the beginning. I feel terrible about him running - what a nightmare!
Agreed!
Despise him and also doubt he'd be the frontrunner. It's *possible* we could see some early polling that shows him atop the field just because of name rec, but I suspect his vote share would be low in any such hypothetical scenario. Wait until an actual race unfolds and things would change. Also, I think opponents would be unafraid to hammer him because all of the fear and intimidation tactics he was able to deploy as governor have now gone poof.
And I swear to god, I will lose my mind if we replace Adams with Cuomo.
Without any actual empirical polling data available to me; I would still bet that his unfavorable ratings within the NYC Democratic primary electorate is high(not to mention the absolutely brutal negative attacks that would be launched at him by his opponents)
I think Cuomo does well with minority communities is why he'd be the favorite
I'd disagree but I am going to defer to our local NYC contingent for their opinions from a ground standpoint
I didn't realize it, but Andrew Cuomo would be pushing 70 years old if he runs; imo that's another mark against him being successful
Dunno, is that really that old? His being old news might be more of an issue for him, especially as he resigned in disgrace.
I'd think it was 1 more talking point against him
It could be used, but I don't know how potent it would be. I think the point would be made indirectly by some people calling themselves the "new generation of leadership" or something.
Cuomo was born in 1957 so by the time he would be in office, he would be 68. Bloomberg left office when he was 71 and after serving multiple four-year terms.
Doubt age is going to be a factor at all in the race.
In these times, I think it's more of a factor than in the past
A young candidate (60 or under) could/would probably turn the race into fresh face vs. a corrupt elderly sex pest from the past who is the problem not the solution.
I hate to say this but Cuomo is more intelligent than Mayor Adams. However, a Mayor Cuomo isn’t going to necessarily change the dynamics in the race.
I mean, we already had Anthony Weiner in the 2013 Mayoral Race who was an embarrassment with his creepy, perverted history.
Then Bill DeBlasio became unpopular in his 2nd term as Mayor.
Then Eric Adams got elected and became the most corrupt Mayor in decades.
NYC needs a truly clean and fresh Mayoral Candidate. Cuomo isn’t going to cut it.
There definitely seems to be a phenomenon where R-leaning (but not diehard) voters can sense when a Republican isn’t right in the head and grok the Dem is the sane choice, but don’t apply it to Trump.
What is this in reference to? NC-Gov?
And AZ-Sen
It's a cult of a single personality: Donald John Trump Sr.
This isn't a GOP cult. When Trump is NOT on the ballot, the Republican candidate or issue underperforms to varying degrees. When he is, the coattails aren't as strong as with other movements. Everything is about Trump.
Trump consistently underperformed(and no, I'm not talking about something Melania said)
Yeah I don't get it either. How is it that tens of thousands of Arizona voters , as one example, seem poised to think Donald Trump is of sufficient temperament and character to earn their vote but find Kari Lake to be a bridge too far?
That's the one that makes the most sense to me because I think Gallego is going to significantly overperform among Hispanics, especially Hispanic men. I wouldn't be surprised if the Hispanic gender gap is 10-15 points higher in the presidential race than it is in the senate race. But Robinson and Trump is one where the crazy shit Robinson said, Trump has said similar crazy shit on the same topics.
Excellent point. I bet you're right that the Hispanic gender gap accounts for the Trump-Gallego voters.
I'm glad that the powers that be in the party have decided to use their fundraising advantages to expand the playing field; I'm confident that it's the right move
It's a necessary move.
"[Mitt] Romney has cited concern for his family’s safety as one of the reasons he has not publicly supported Kamala Harris."
– The New Republic, referring to reports by The Washington Post
It's a crime that Trump is still at large, not in prison!
Well imagine how much less safe he’ll be if Trump becomes President.
Looks like some Vance text messages being critical of Trump years after he claims he "changed his tune" in 2020 said Trump "so thoroughly failed to deliver", and referring to him as "the emperor"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2024/09/27/jd-vance-said-emperor-trump-thoroughly-failed-in-2020-report-says/
This by itself is at most going to be a 1 line potshot kn Monday's debate, but it's more of the trickle trickle trickle we've been seeing within the Trump campaign
I’m sure the Lincoln Project is all over this!
Yeah, but where are the Lincoln Project’s ads being broadcast? They should be shown on Fox, Newsmax and OAN. Are they ever? George Conway and his Anti-PsychoPAC are making a commendable effort to hit Trump on his home turf, including Fox.
I don’t have the answer to that except to say that the Lincoln Project would likely hit resistance even if Steve Schmidt & Co. have been long-time Republican strategists.
Fox News maybe not but Newsmax and OAN would likely not approve. OAN is essentially the RT of MAGA and Trump.
The fact that it’s taken this long for those working for NC Lt. Governor Mark Robinson to leave says a lot.
It used to be that Art Pope had a stranglehold on the NC GOP. Now it seems with Robinson the party may be starting to impode.
Thank you Mark Robinson for staying the course and remaining in the race!
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article292982684.html