Morning Digest, sponsored by 314 Action: North Carolina's top court opens door to overturning election won by Democrat
Republicans could retroactively invalidate tens of thousands of lawful votes
Leading Off
NC Supreme Court
North Carolina's Republican-dominated Supreme Court on Tuesday ordered the state Board of Elections not to certify the results of last month's election for the state's highest court, opening a door for the majority to declare Republican Jefferson Griffin the winner even though Democratic incumbent Allison Riggs won more votes.
The move came one day after a federal judge, Richard Myers, returned Griffin's efforts to invalidate more than 60,000 votes to the state court system, ruling that none of Griffin's claims "necessarily raise an issue of federal law." The Board, which last month rejected Griffin's challenges, had sought to have Griffin's various state-court lawsuits instead heard in federal court, but Myers determined he was obligated to "abstain" in favor of the state judiciary.
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The Board, which is made up of a majority of Democratic appointees, immediately appealed Myers' decision. It asked the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals to stay Myers' ruling and direct him to "retrieve" the matter from the state courts so that its appeal can be adjudicated before it becomes moot.
In its brief, the Board argues that "abstention is inappropriate when state court proceedings threaten civil rights protected by federal law." It further charges that accepting Griffin's challenges would amount to "retroactively throwing away tens of thousands of votes by lawfully eligible voters who complied with the voting rules in place at the time of the election."
Even though Myers is an appointee of Donald Trump, Democrats would prefer to have the dispute resolved federally. They've vocally warned that Republicans on the state Supreme Court—who've greenlit multiple GOP power grabs—could try to seat Griffin despite the fact that two recounts have confirmed Riggs as the victor by 734 votes.
The Supreme Court may not actually have the power to do so, but whether it adheres to the law is another question. State constitutional law expert Quinn Yeargain, a contributor to The Downballot, notes that even if the justices were to rule that the Board was wrong to reject Griffin's challenges, it would not be empowered to name him as the winner. Instead, it could at most order a new election be held.
All that is predicated, however, on whether the Fourth Circuit allows the matter to remain before the state, or whether the federal courts reassert jurisdiction. The appeals court ordered accelerated briefing, directing Griffin to respond to the Board's request for a stay by noon Eastern today, while briefing before the Supreme Court is not set to conclude until Jan. 24.
Election Results
VA State Senate & State House
Democrats hung on to their one-seat majorities in both chambers of the Virginia legislature by winning two special elections on Tuesday night in the Washington, D.C., suburbs. Republicans prevailed in a third race outside of Richmond, but the outcome did not affect the overall math.
In the battle for the state Senate, Democrat Kannan Srinivasan, who stepped down late last year as a member of the House of Delegates, defeated Republican Tumay Harding, a former teacher, by a 61-39 margin in Northern Virginia's 32nd District.
Meanwhile, in the 10th District in the central part of the state, businessman Luther Cifers, the GOP nominee, held off Democrat Jack Trammell, a sociology professor, 59-41.
Finally, in the 26th House District, Democrat JJ Singh, a hotel developer, beat Republican consultant Ram Venkatachalam, winning 61-38. Both Democrats ran about 1 point ahead of Kamala Harris while Cifers underperformed Donald Trump by 9 points.
As a result of their victories, Democrats will retain their 21-19 advantage in the Senate—a slim but crucial edge, because Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears would be able to break ties in an evenly divided chamber. They'll also maintain their 51-49 majority in the House. All 100 seats in the House will be up again in November, while members of the Senate will not face voters until 2027.
You can stay on top of every special election by bookmarking our new tracker, updated for the 2025-26 election cycle.
Senate
ID-Sen
Republican Jim Risch has yet to say whether he'll seek a fourth term next year, notes Roll Call in a new piece on the Senate playing field, pointing out that the 81-year-old senator "has been in elective office since the Nixon administration."
That career, which began with a successful bid for Ada County prosecuting attorney in 1970, was briefly interrupted in 1988 when Risch lost reelection to the state Senate against Democrat Mike Burkett in an upset. He returned to the Idaho legislature in 1995, though, and has held various posts ever since.
NH-Sen
Outgoing Republican Gov. Chris Sununu tells CNN he won't challenge Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. Sununu was a top target for GOP Senate recruiters in 2020 and 2022, but he disappointed national Republicans by seeking reelection both times.
Governors
MD-Gov
A new poll from Gonzales Research shows Democratic Gov. Wes Moore beating his predecessor, Republican Larry Hogan, by a 52-38 margin in a hypothetical matchup, though Hogan has not publicly said whether he might be interested in trying to reclaim his old job. Hogan, 68, lost a Senate bid last year to Democrat Angela Alsobrooks 55-43.
NJ-Gov
Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop just became the first Democratic candidate for governor to go up on TV ahead of the June 10 primary, beginning what the New Jersey Globe calls a "seven-figure" ad buy.
One of Fulop's inaugural spots details his background, noting that he volunteered for the Marines after 9/11, then "took on developers, Bob Menendez, and the political machine" as mayor. The other focuses on his support for education.
The Globe also notes that Fulop has qualified for the maximum amount of public financing for the primary allowed under New Jersey law, which gives campaigns a 2-for-1 match as long as they agree to cap their spending at $8.7 million. For the general election, that figure is $18.5 million.
OH-Gov
Former Ohio Health Director Amy Acton, who rose to prominence during the early months of the COVID pandemic, became the first notable Democrat to announce a bid for governor on Tuesday. Acton is campaigning to succeed her former boss, termed-out Republican Mike DeWine, in a former swing state that's moved sharply to the right over the last decade.
Acton, who is running for office for the first time, became a ubiquitous presence in 2020 during DeWine's TV briefings. Her high-profile role also made Acton, who is Jewish, a target of vitriol from conservatives who opposed the state's public health directives, which included many antisemitic attacks.
After Acton stepped down in June of 2020, DeWine offered glowing praise on her way out.
"It’s true not all heroes wear capes," the governor said. "Some of them do, in fact, wear a white coat, and this particular hero’s white coat is embossed with the name Dr. Amy Acton."
Acton, though, launched her bid for DeWine's job by arguing that Ohio's Republican-dominated government had failed its citizens.
"It’s not OK with me that Ohioans don’t live as long as people do in other states," she told the Associated Press. "It’s not OK with me to watch what used to be a top education system, state-of-the-art education system, begin to fall year after year after year."
House
WA-04
Former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler says he's preparing a third bid for Washington's conservative 4th District after losing an all-Republican general election to Rep. Dan Newhouse by a 52-46 margin last year.
Boosted by Donald Trump's endorsement, Sessler led Newhouse 33-23 in the August top-two primary. But Newhouse, one of just two Republicans left in the House who voted to impeach Donald Trump, prevailed in the general election thanks to the votes of Democrats, who did not have a candidate of their own to support. Sessler also ran in 2022 but finished fourth in the primary with just 12%.
Mayors & County Leaders
Westchester County, NY Executive & Baltimore County, MD Executive
County legislatures in two populous communities this week selected new executives to replace Democrats who were elected to the U.S. House last fall.
The Westchester County Board of Legislators chose Deputy Executive Ken Jenkins on Monday to replace his old boss, New York Rep. George Latimer. Jenkins, a Democrat who is the county's first Black leader, will need to defend his new job in a Feb. 11 special election, though no opponents have surfaced yet. The winner will be up for a full four-year term in November in this reliably blue county just north of New York City that backed Kamala Harris 63-37.
Meanwhile, the Baltimore County Council picked Democratic state Sen. Kathy Klausmeier to succeed Johnny Olszewski the following day, which makes her the first woman to hold this post. (Baltimore County, which is the third-most populous in Maryland, and the neighboring city of Baltimore have been separate jurisdictions since the 1850s.)
Klausmeier won't have to contend with a special election, but she's pledged not to run for a full term in 2026—a promise the other four finalists for the appointment also made. Three members of the County Legislature are already running in next year's contest to run the county, which favored Harris 61-36.
Prosecutors & Sheriffs
2025 Elections
Over 150 counties will elect sheriffs or prosecutors this year, and Bolts has put together a list of these contests. All of these races, with one exception, are concentrated in just four states: New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. The lone outlier is Orleans Parish, Louisiana, where Sheriff Susan Hutson is on the ballot.
Daniel Nichanian also takes a look at some of the themes to watch as the year unfolds, including whether progressive prosecutors will be able to survive tough challenges and whether criminal justice reformers can add to their numbers.
We are very close to being able to say what the state of the judiciary will be when Trump takes office. Biden will leave office with 1 SCOTUS justice (11%), 44 circuit judges (25%), and 183 district judges (27%). Trump already has 3 SCOTUS (33%), 53 circuit (30%), and 168 district (25%). Obama still has 2 SCOTUS (22%), 35 circuit (20%), and 186 district (27%). Dubya has 2 SCOTUS (22%), 26 circuit (15%), and 79 district (12%). Clinton has 9 circuit (5%) and 17 district (3%). Poppy has 1 SCOTUS (11%), 4 circuit (2%) and 4 district (1%). Reagan has 5 circuit (3%) and 6 district (1%). That makes for partisan totals of 6-3 GOP (67%) on SCOTUS, a tie of 88-88 on the circuits with three vacancies (49%-49%-2%), and a sizeable Dem lead of 386-257 on the district courts with 37 vacancies (57%-38%-5%).
The vacancies Trump is set to inherit: The Maine seat on the 5D-0R-1v 1st circuit opened on Halloween with the retirement of an Obama appointee, and Biden's uncontroversial nominee wasn't given a vote under the 'deal' that kept Sinema and Manchin playing ball for district nominees. The 7R-6D-2v 3rd circuit will leave NJ and DE seats. The NJ seat shouldn't have opened to begin with (Obama appointee going to the private sector in June 2023), and several Dems balked at voting for the first Muslim circuit judge; the administration refused to back down and the nominee never got a vote. The DE seat will open on the 15th with the retirement of a Dubya appointee. The seat never got a nominee despite being announced in May; it seems highly unlikely that Biden would have willingly passed up the opportunity to appoint a home state judge, so I'm pretty certain the judge offered an ultimatum that made a Biden appointment dependent upon a Harris victory. Of the 37 district vacancies, 35 have two GOP senators (3 AL, 2 AK, 1 AR, 4 FL, 1 IN, 1 KS, 4 LA, 1 MS, 4 MO, 4 NC, 1 OH, 1 SC, 1 TN, 7 TX). Biden filled 33 seat that required at least one GOP blue slip, but that was largely dependent upon the timing of the vacancy: he filled 3 of 4 that opened under Trump, 25 of 32 that opened in the 117th congress, and 5 of 32 that opened in the 118th congress. There's uncertainty connected to three future vacancies that were set to occur upon confirmation of a successor. We've seen vacancies rescinded for a circuit seat in NC and district seats in NC and OH. I expect the same for a circuit seat in TN and district seats in MT and NY, the latter of which hasn't been officially announced, but we'll see. The two Dem state district judgeships left vacant: an SD CA seat that opened in 2021 saw two failed nominees, the first a critic of residency restrictions for sex offenders and the latter probably receiving a 'not qualified' ABA rating and never being withdrawn despite it being clear by June that she would fail; the second opened on SD NY on New Year's Eve after Ossoff helped vote down a nominee in July for relocating a trans woman prisoner to a women's prison.
Appointing party has become a near-perfect analog for judicial ideology, thanks to the elimination of the filibuster. Under Biden: 1 of 1 SCOTUS appointee has a Dem donation history; 17 circuit appointees have Dem donation histories while the other 27 have none; 86 district appointees have Dem donation histories, 90 have none, 4 have GOP histories, and 3 have mixed histories. The seven with GOP or split histories: Susan Bazis (D NE, Fischer and Ricketts): 4 GOP donations, $2200, 2005-2007; Kelly Rankin (D WY, Barrasso and Lummis): 7 GOP donations, $1540, 2002-2010; John David Russell (ND OK, Mullin and Lankford): $1000 to Glen Mulready for OK Insurance Commissioner, 2018; Elizabeth Coombe (ND NY, Schumer and Gillibrand): $250 to John Katko, 2014; David Leibowitz (SD FL, Rubio and Scott): 9 donations 2007-2018, $7030 to Curbelo, Fleischmann, Brian Fitzpatrick, Giuliani, and Joe Garcia, $3500 to Crist, Cicilline, and Al Lawson; John Murphy (ED PA, Toomey and Casey): 47 donations 2010-2022, $5500 to Toomey, $1359 to his law firm's winner-endorsing PAC, $850 to Dems, and $620 to other GOPers; Camela Theeler (D SD, Rounds and Thune), $500 to Jim Abbott in 2002 for SD Gov, $250 to Dusty Johnson in 2016. The GOP donations from Coombe, Theeler, and Russell may simply be personal connections, while Rankin and Bazis are clearly partisan Republicans; Leibowitz and particularly Murphy bought their way onto the courts.
As for how a second Trump term's set to impact the judiciary, the highlight is of course adding youth to the GOP SCOTUS slate, but more fundamentally, it is likely to boil down to replacing a bunch of Dubya appointees. By appointing president:
Reagan, circuit: 5 senior-eligible
Reagan, district: 6 senior-eligible, 1 vacancy
Poppy, SCOTUS: 1 senior-eligible
Poppy, circuit: 4 senior-eligible
Poppy, district: 4 senior-eligible, 1 vacancy
Clinton, circuit: 9 senior-eligible
Clinton, district: 17 senior-eligible, 5 vacancies
Dubya, SCOTUS: 2 senior-eligible
Dubya, circuit: 15 senior-eligible, 2 qualifying in 119th congress, 5 in 120th, 1 vacancy
Dubya, district: 37 senior-eligible, 12 qualifying in 119th congress, 13 in 120th, 1 future vacancy, 13 vacancies
Obama, SCOTUS: 1 senior-eligible, 1 qualifying in 119th congress
Obama, circuit: 5 senior-eligible, 8 qualifying in 119th congress, 8 in 120th, 2 vacancies
Obama, district: 24 senior-eligible, 32 qualifying in 119th congress, 39 in 120th, 2 future vacancies, 15 vacancies
Trump, circuit: 1 senior-eligible, 1 qualifying in 119th congress, 1 in 120th
Trump, district: 10 qualifying in 120th congress, 2 vacancies
The losses of Cheri Beasley in 2020 as well as Sam Ervin and Lucy Inman in 2022 sting very badly.
I’ve gotten to know Justices Ervin and Riggs and they’re both very decent and intelligent, but to Riggs’s credit, I think she understands that judges really are politicians better than any of the other judges I listed.