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Canadian Liberal Party contest:

Liberals will choose their next leader — and Canada's next prime minister — on March 9, the party said in a media release on Thursday night.

Candidates will have to declare their intention to run and pay the entry fee by Jan. 23. People can register with the party to vote in the leadership race up until Jan. 27.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/when-will-liberal-leader-chosen-march-9th-1.7427723

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I see the libs changed their rules so only citizens can vote. That'll keep a bunch of Maga immigrants from flowing into Canada to elect their Canada 51 candidate. LOL.

More seriously, if in some strange occurrence Canada did decide to join the US, it's hard for me to imagine the Quebecois being copacetic with that.

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An independent Quebec surrounded by a huge USA.

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I like the idea of the US govt having to produce documents in English, French, and Spanish. Ha.

Someone will take the hit for a two week stint. Whether they want to or not. You can always find an interim.

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not gonna happen

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The Parliament returns March 24. If NDP carries out it promise, its MPs will vote down the speech from the throne. The new PM would have the shortest tenure ever.

Wondering who wants that two week stint?

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Well, it would be more like two months given the election period. But with Trudeau gone, NDP might reconsider.

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Someone old and looking for a legacy??🤔

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There is an election already scheduled for October 2025.

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By then. It can happen earlier if the government falls.

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I’m gobsmacked Christy Clark is running but some Canadians on another forum I frequent thought she might actually be formidable

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She hasn't officially announced. But if she were to win, that would be great news for the NDP. FM Melanie Joly announced today that she wouldn't run.

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NYC - I actually think Cuomo is going to triumph here and that would have been inconceivable to me not that long ago. It's fascinating. Adams is a massive disaster, the rest of the field is weak, and Cuomo has a chip on his shoulder driving him. I think this country just showed that a history of sexual harassment/assault is barely an inconvenience.

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If the choice were him or Adams, he'd win. But I don't think that will be the final choice.

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Ranked choice will complicate it but I will currently give the edge to Cuomo over the other candidates that I am aware of.

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If sexual misconduct is no obstacle, Eliot Spitzer ought to enter the race.

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If I recall correctly, the accusation of assault against Spitzer fell apart. There is still the issue with prostitutes, but, to your point, that seems quaint. Beyond that though, he was a very unpopular Governor and failed in his last NYC race (though not by much, as I recall).

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Spitzer was elected governor by the widest margin in New York history. After his fall from grace, he attempted a comeback by running for comptroller of New York City but lost in the primary to Scott Stringer, who is now a likely candidate for mayor. But if Cuomo is now a viable candidate, even Matt Gaetz is a credible candidate for governor of Florida.

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Spitzer was very popular the day he was elected. I personally really loved the guy. He basically immediately started to piss off absolutely everyone and was headed toward an aborted political career even without the prostitution scandal.

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Kinda funny that Stringer then lost out on his Mayoral race due to sexual misconduct. Seems to be a theme here unfortunately.

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Or Anthony Weiner.

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I suspect the only election Weiner would win at the moment is "local whipping boy".

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Only because Democrats chose not to circle the wagons around him and normalize him the way that Republicans do with their deviants. If Weiner belonged to the other party, he'd be getting a Cabinet appointment right now.

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Our electorate is different from the MAGA base.

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A fact which I have to constantly remind people here and elsewhere. This notion that Democratic politicians get the same leeway as Republican politicians do is simply not based in reality. Base Democrats actually expect their politicians to govern, do it well, and to be adults. It's a major reason Orange Slob could and would never make it as "one of us." He would have had to be Mayor of NYC or NY Governor first before even considering going national. His ego would NEVER allow that.

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But he's a bigger asshole than all the other scum mentioned above imo

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His sex scandal is the least of his problems. He helped tank Clinton because he couldn't be arsed to be kept away from electronics by either himself or his family.

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I think each of them has enough baggage that they'd lose more often than not on their own, but the calculus changes with both of them in the field.

RCV helps a lot but there's only so much oxygen in the room. Unless the not-toxic field consolidates down to one, or maybe two, of them getting attention I don't see it working out well.

As-is, Adams and Cuomo will dominate coverage and mental space for the mayoral election and it's going to be hard for one of the other candidates to break through that and be perceived as an equivalently viable option by voters.

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I simply don't agree that either Cuomo or Adams is elected in that race(I have no actual back-up to my opinion other than I think NYC voters are smarter than such idiocy)

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NYC voters elected Adams in 2021 after heaps of evidence that he was a deeply flawed candidate that would make a poor mayor. They also elected republicans to the office for two full decades between Giuliani and Bloomberg. In 2024 there was something like a 15 point shift to Trump in the city, relative to 2020.

History would suggest that NYC voters are more than capable of voting for one of two prominent poor choices in a primary. The core issue isn't unique to NYC, to be clear.

At the end of the day prominent candidates, even deeply flawed ones, get a lot of media attention. With there being two such high profile deeply flawed candidates in the primary, the general trend is that we should expect the majority of media attention to focus on those two. That will make it difficult for someone like Lander to break through and build a lane for themself, in order to get enough people to rank one specific not-Adams not-Cuomo candidate on their RCV lists.

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I simply don't agree because Adams is not popular and has had a mountain of negative publicity about corruption(and frankly weird behavior also); I think an alternative candidate will emerge that will win(probably a Hispanic imo)

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I certainly don't think it's guaranteed that Adams or Cuomo win, but I worry that it's reasonably likely.

Hopefully your confidence proves merited and they both go down in flames.

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Adams is not winning. He’s not getting over 50%. He barely got it last time.

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Basically what Januslantios said. I'll just add that NYC voters have shown poor turnout recently and the entire area has moved to the right. They are looking for strong leadership to deal with the mountain of problems that NYC has, and Cuomo appears strong. In that way, he is the most Trump like politician we have. All of the other people currently being talked about are either too liberal or too weak, or both, to stand up to Cuomo, who has way more name recognition than anyone else out there. As for someone not currently being talked about that could come in and beat him, that would probably be the AG, James. But I don't think she wants it.

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Especially if the "not Cuomo or Adams" vote is split. I could see enough voters flocking to some other candidate who appears to offer a fresher start with less baggage to make such a candidate a serious contender, especially with RCV.

But such a candidate would have to have the money or media profile to break past the two flawed frontrunners, and I'm not sure if there's a Bloomberg type candidate who's willing to do that (they don't have to be as uber-wealthy as Bloomie, but it's gonna take a LOT of money for an outsider without institutional support or a record in office to do so.) And I don't think voters are really in the mood for turning the city into the lab for the latest progressive or socialist experiments, either.

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Hopefully, NYC voters find a third candidate under 75 who hasn't taken bribes or sexually assaulted their staff. This shouldn't be so difficult.

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This is my opinion exactly; thanks for posting what I was trying to do

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That would be YUGE for his ego. He'd get the one job that eluded Daddy Cuomo back in the day. Has he actually announced his Mayoralship candidacy?

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As much as I dislike Cuomo his style is probably better suited for city politics than state/national and anybody would be an improvement over Adams

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In due time, I expect Eric Adams to be offered a job in the Trump Administration.

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I don't know; not sure if Trump would actually do that(what is the payoff for him??)

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The payoff for Trump is a big "eff you" to Democrats – which is precisely what many of his other cabinet nominations are.

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On the other hand, Adams' legal problems are such that he would probably be gone soon enough anyway. Cuomo, if he wins, could presumably stick around as long as he wished.

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I think his chances are less than 1%

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2025 Virginia Governor Poll

🔵 Spanberger 47% (+3)

🔴 Sears 44%

Mason Dixon #B+ - 625 RV - 12/19

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like this one better!

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Either way, it's close. Mayyybe I'd put a finger on the scale for Spanberger, given the unlikelihood that Trump and the GOP agenda will be very popular, but she can't expect to coast. Good thing is, she's got experience in winning tough elections.

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Congress’ next order of business should be to pass legislation that bars convicted felons from using any bathroom in the White House or in the Capitol.

If need be, this can be one of Democrats’ demands for raising the debt ceiling. But let’s not be unreasonable. If we need to compromise, an explicit exception can be made for diaper-wearing felons.

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we should not do this

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The German word for 'special deputies' is 'Sonderbeauftragte'. Doesn't have the same ring as 'Sturmabteilung' though.

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Arizona 2024:

What was driving these GOP registration gains? Well, a lot of things, but foremost among them, Hispanic voters. In 2020, new Hispanic registrants in Arizona were +22 Dem. By 2022 the GOP had halved that Democratic advantage, to make it +11 Dem. But the bottom truly fell out for Democrats in 2024, as they had an advantage of only 2.5% among Hispanic new registrants.

This chart shows the party registration of new registrants Hispanic men under the age of 30 in Arizona for each election cycle. You will see that Dems had a 20 point margin advantage with this group in 2020, dropping to 7 points in 2022, and then flipping entirely to a 7 point GOP advantage in 2024.

What else accounts for the Dem drop-off in Arizona? Voter turnout was a big part of it. If we set the registration aside and just look at party registration shares for those who voted in each election, in 2020 the electorate was +4.7 GOP. In 2024 that surged to +9.2 GOP - a 4.5% improvement in electorate share for the GOP.

https://tombonier.substack.com/p/lessons-from-arizona?r=9v0k3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true

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thanks for this

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Thanks for this. While I'm not loving the Hispanic men under the age of 30 voter registration surge for the GOP, I don't know if that group will want to associate with the GOP in the longterm. Especially once they see stuff like tariffs, tax cuts and mass deportations hurt them. Gallego had a great interview in the NYTs that nailed it that both Hispanic men who are head of the households and young Hispanic men who can't move out of their parents houses feel powerless. That and the drop in voter turnout proves this was a super reactionary electorate. Going to be interested what their reaction will be in 2026.

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Also worth pointing out that Hispanic men under 30 are probably way more culturally assimilated than their older brothers/cousins, to say nothing of their parents and grandparents generations

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Bruce Blakeman has been directly messing with my health insurance as a Nassau County employee, tried to dump us onto a bare bones plan less than a year after signing a new CBA which laid out our benefits clear as day. We’re in arbitration with the county now, and will keep our current level of coverage for at least 2025. Needless to say, he’s pissed a lot of people off here.

Our local’s leadership was actually recalled and shunted aside because of how badly they bungled this (both with being blindsided by the move and trusting him in the first place). The new reps sent from Albany who replaced them are taking a more hardline stand after years of cozying up to the Nassau GOP. They told us that Blakeman is hoping for a job in the Trump administration and could not give less of a shit about the wreckage he leaves behind in Nassau. That doesn’t mean he’ll get one and doesn’t mean he won’t run for CE again, but that’s what I was told.

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In your opinion, does our side have a viable alternative candidate??

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It’s discussed in the digest.

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yup..maybe our best 'get' 👍

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Does anyone here know if any major candidates for NYC Mayor have ever been disqualified due to lack of adequate signature gathering??.. Just curious.. Thank You

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