Morning Digest, sponsored by 314 Action: Barbara Lee launches comeback after failed Senate bid

After 27 years in Congress, the outspoken progressive wants to be Oakland's next mayor

Former Rep. Barbara Lee has launched her bid for mayor of Oakland (credit: Barbara Lee campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

Oakland, CA Mayor

Former Rep. Barbara Lee announced Wednesday that she would compete in the April 15 special election to replace former Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao, whom voters ousted in a recall last year. Lee launched her campaign weeks after a diverse set of supporters, including business and labor leaders who often are on opposite sides, urged her to run.

The California Democrat, who concluded a 27-year career in Congress last week, is one of the most high-profile politicians in this overwhelmingly blue city, but she could still face a tough battle this spring. Her main opponent in this ranked-choice contest appears to be former City Council member Loren Taylor, who narrowly lost to Thao 50.3-49.7 in 2022.

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Taylor, who emphasized his support for more police funding during his first bid, is often identified as a moderate in city politics. Lee, by contrast, is an ardent progressive who rose to national prominence shortly after 9/11 as the only member of Congress to vote against the 2001 war in Afghanistan, a lonely stance she highlighted in her launch video.

Taylor, however, argued that his opponent's long tenure in politics, rather than her ideology, makes her an unacceptable choice for mayor. The 47-year-old candidate highlighted the fact that he's three decades younger than the 78-year-old Lee as he made his case that the city "needs a fresh approach to leadership and governance."

Taylor, however, faces his own skeptics. Politico wrote this week that his second bid for mayor "has been slow to get off the ground," which has some of his backers fretting about his potential. The candidate filing deadline is Jan. 17, so it's possible someone else will run and displace Taylor as Lee's strongest rival.

Lee, for her part, used her announcement video to make the case that she's just the person needed to help this East Bay city combat crime and the high cost of living.

"Now as an Oakland small business owner who employed over 400 people, a state legislator, and in Congress, I fought for Oakland values," Lee tells viewers. "Now it's time to bring that business and legislative experience home for an Oakland renaissance."

Her new campaign comes a year after she fell well short in her bid for an open U.S. Senate seat. Fellow Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff and Katie Porter overshadowed Lee throughout the top-two primary as Lee struggled to raise enough money to compete in America's most populous state. She anticipated this problem in 2020 when she told the San Francisco Chronicle that "[f]or me to raise money, being a Black woman progressive, is 10 times harder than it is for anybody else," but she was never able to solve it.

Lee ultimately finished in fourth place with just 10% of the vote statewide, though voters in her hometown were considerably more receptive to their longtime congresswoman. Lee outpaced Schiff, who went on to win the race, by a 42-28 margin in Oakland.

The Downballot Podcast

Dems start 2025 with big wins in Virginia

The Downballot podcast is back from our break, and already we've got election results to discuss on this week's show! Democrats in Virginia started the year off right with solid wins in two special elections that allowed them to retain their narrow majorities in both houses of the state legislature while Republicans actually underperformed in a third race.

And of course, North Carolina is once again top of mind as Republicans move forward with a plan to overturn the results of last year's race for the state Supreme Court—even though two recounts confirmed that Democrats won. We're also digging into the wild situation in the Minnesota House, where Democrats are threatening a walkout if Republicans refuse to accept the power-sharing deal the parties began hammering out after the chamber wound up tied following the November elections.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

Senate

TX-Sen

State Attorney General Ken Paxton leads Sen. John Cornyn by a 42-34 margin in a hypothetical matchup of next year's Republican primary for Senate in Texas, according to a poll conducted by the GOP firm Victory Insights. The pollster says the survey "was not commissioned by any candidate or committee." Paxton has said he's considering a challenge and suggested he might make a decision in "a couple months" in late December.

Governors

FL-Gov, FL-Sen

Florida Republicans who might run to succeed Gov. Ron DeSantis next year have been—with the exception of some occasional shitposting from Matt Gaetz—largely quiet about their intentions, but several are reportedly weighing their options.

The Tampa Bay Times' Kirby Wilson says that Rep. Byron Donalds, state Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpsons, and state Attorney General Ashley Moody are all "rumored to be considering a run," though Moody is apparently DeSantis' likeliest choice to replace Sen. Marco Rubio if he's confirmed as Donald Trump's secretary of state.

KS-Gov

Kansas Secretary of State Scott Schwab on Wednesday became the first prominent Republican to announce a campaign to succeed Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, who cannot seek a third term next year in this longtime conservative stronghold.

Schwab, who previously served in the state House, first won his post in 2018 and retained it four years later despite a difficult primary. He was challenged by Mike Brown, a former member of the Johnson County Commission who amplified Donald Trump's lies about the 2020 election and blamed Schwab for errors committed by two county election officials.

The secretary of state defended his stewardship of Kansas' elections and the use of ballot drop boxes, which Brown wanted to eliminate. However, Schwab also emphasized his support for the voting restrictions passed by the GOP legislature, such as a bill to make it tougher for third-party organizations to deliver ballots. The incumbent fended off Brown 55-45 before easily defeating Democrat Jeanna Repass 58-39.

Schwab has spent his second term pushing back on election conspiracy theories leveled by people like Brown, who is now the state GOP chair. However, that didn't stop him from using his announcement video to declare his loyalty to Trump, who carried Kansas 57-41 last year.

Schwab will almost certainly face intraparty opposition next year as he seeks a promotion. One likely rival is state Senate President Ty Masterson, whom the Kansas Reflector's Sherman Smith says is "widely expected to run." Masterson, however, deflected questions about his plans Wednesday morning and instead told KCUR that he's focusing on the 90-day legislative session that starts Monday.

ME-Gov

"Behind the scenes, Democratic operatives are confident" that at least three major candidates will join next year's primary for governor, reports the Bangor Daily News' Michael Shepherd: former Senate President Troy Jackson, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, and Rep. Jared Golden.

All three have declined to rule out bids in one way or another, with Golden doing so in November and Bellows last month. Jackson, meanwhile, deflected a query from BDN reported Billy Kobin just before the winter holidays by texting, "Tell Mike to quit being such a Scrooge and let you go celebrate Christmas!"

Shepherd adds that former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree is "potentially" a candidate as well, though she hasn't said anything publicly. In a rundown in early December from Shepherd and Kobin, former Portland City Councilor Spencer Thibodeau and new House Speaker Ryan Fecteau also did not foreclose the idea of seeking the nod to succeed termed-out Gov. Janet Mills, a fellow Democrat.

House

NY-17

Jessica Reinmann, the CEO of an anti-poverty nonprofit called 914Cares, has filed paperwork with the FEC ahead of a possible bid in New York's competitive 17th Congressional District, which is currently held by Republican Rep. Mike Lawler. Reinmann does not appear to have said anything publicly about her filing, which was flagged by Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin.

Judges

WI Spring Elections

Wisconsin will host two statewide elections this spring—one for the state's top court and the other for schools chief—but only the latter will feature a primary.

The pivotal battle for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which will determine whether liberals retain the majority they won just two years ago, will be a showdown between Dane County Circuit Court Judge Susan Crawford, who has the endorsement of state Democrats, and former state Attorney General Brad Schimel, a Republican.

Because no other candidates filed as of Tuesday's deadline, Crawford and Schimel will skip the Feb. 18 primary and proceed directly to the general election on April 1, which is an officially nonpartisan affair.

However, Jill Underly, the state's superintendent of public instruction, drew two opponents, so she'll have to go through two elections to win a second term. Four years ago, Underly, with the backing of state Democrats, crushed Deborah Kerr, a supporter of school vouchers, in a 58-42 landslide.

This time, Underly faces challengers on her left and right, though both have identified as Democrats. One is Jeff Wright, the school superintendent in the small community of Sauk Prairie, outside of Madison. He's been recommended for an endorsement by a committee of the Wisconsin Education Association Council, the state's largest teachers union, though he has yet to receive the full organization's backing.

The other is education consultant Brittany Kinser, a charter school advocate who, according to WisPolitics, calls herself a "Blue Dog Democrat," a reference to the small caucus of moderate Democrats in the U.S. House with that name. Two days after that piece was published, however, she declined to tell the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel her party affiliation.

Underly has faced criticism over changes she made last year to the state's standardized tests, including charges that she lowered standards. Those critics include Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who held Underly's post before his successful bid for governor in 2018. Nevertheless, the state Democratic Party has endorsed Underly for a second term as she seeks to extend a progressive winning streak that goes back to 2001.

Like the race for the Supreme Court, the contest for schools superintendent is also nonpartisan, with the top two vote-getters in the primary advancing to the April general election. That day will also feature elections for a variety of other posts, including three seats on the Court of Appeals and several races for county executive and mayor.