Morning Digest, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics: A fraught primary-in-waiting could get messier for the GOP
A "third candidate" surfaces in a looming showdown between a veteran senator and his top antagonist
Leading Off
TX-Sen
Rep. Wesley Hunt is now openly talking about challenging longtime Texas Sen. John Cornyn in next year's Republican primary, a move that could add some extra unpredictability to an already unsettled race.
For years, political observers have anticipated a nasty intraparty battle between Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, though Paxton, despite teasing a bid, has yet to commit to running.
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Hunt, by contrast, hadn't shown any public interest in joining the fray until this week, but that changed when Leigh Ann Caldwell reported in Puck that the congressman told NRSC chair Tim Scott he could be the "third candidate."
It's not clear what Hunt hoped to gain from the meeting: Caldwell relays that Scott reiterated that his committee supports Cornyn, who chaired the body during the 2010 and 2012 cycles. Hunt, though, wasn't deterred by that rejection and confirmed to Politico's Brakkton Booker that he wasn't ruling out a run.
But while the congressman speculated that the 73-year-old Cornyn might opt to retire rather than face a difficult reelection, the senator is seeking to put these rumors to rest. Cornyn, whose dreams of becoming majority leader ended in November with his loss to John Thune, has repeatedly said he still wants to remain in the Senate, and to that end, he held an inaugural campaign fundraiser last week as he seeks a fifth term.
Hunt, who represents a safety red seat in the Houston area, has not said why he thinks Cornyn should be replaced, though Hunt argued that he could join a mini-trend.
Specifically, Hunt noted to Book that two fellow Black Republicans in the House are running for statewide office or are likely to: Byron Donalds, who is campaigning for governor of Florida, and John James, who has reportedly told people he'll run for the same post in Michigan.
Paxton, for his part, has been anything but reluctant to explain why he thinks Republicans should eject Cornyn. The attorney general told Tucker Carlson last month that the senator is "wrong about most everything." Paxton added, "I'll bring out what he said about Trump and how disparaging he was against Trump in 2016 and just in this last election saying he shouldn't run and he's not the guy."
If all three of these prominent Republicans run, that could also introduce a new twist. Because Texas, like many other Southern states, requires that candidates take a majority of the vote to avert a runoff, a three-way race could wind up going to overtime. That might favor a more extreme candidate like Paxton: In 2012, the last time Texas held a GOP primary runoff, Ted Cruz beat the establishment-backed lieutenant governor, David Dewhurst, 57-43.
No prominent Democrats have expressed interest in running in this longtime conservative bastion, though an ugly—and potentially prolonged—GOP primary could help entice someone to step forward.
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Election Night
A trio of large and heavily Democratic communities are hosting local elections tonight. Below, we run down what to watch from coast to coast.
Prince George's County, MD Executive
Eight Democrats are competing in the special primary to succeed Angela Alsobrooks, who resigned last year after winning Maryland's open Senate race, as executive of this populous county in the Washington, D.C. suburbs. Whoever wins a plurality tonight will be all but assured victory in the June 3 general election. The new executive will be up for a full four-year term next year.
The four main candidates are all local elected officials. County Councilmember Calvin Hawkins has Alsobrooks' endorsement, while State's Attorney Aisha Braveboy enjoys Gov. Wes Moore's backing. The two also have a notable financial advantage over the rest of the field.
Another notable contender, former Executive Rushern Baker, has each of the five local public safety unions on his side in his campaign to regain the job he held from 2010 to 2018. State Sen. Alonzo Washington, by contrast, does not have such prominent backers, but he's hoping his message that the county is going in the "wrong direction" will break through.
St. Louis, MO Mayor
St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones and three challengers are facing off in one of the few elections in America to make use of approval voting. Under this system, all candidates face off on a single ballot. Voters can cast as many votes as there are candidates, with a maximum of one vote per candidate. The top two contenders then advance to an April 8 general election, where voters will be limited to one choice.
Jones has argued that, under her watch, St. Louis has made progress in combatting violent crime, but her detractors argue she's done a poor job managing the city. One of those opponents is Alderwoman Cara Spencer, a fellow Democrat who has outraised the incumbent ahead of their rematch from four years ago. Jones won that 2021 open seat race 52-48, a win that made her the first Black woman to lead St. Louis. (Spencer is white.)
The other two contenders are Recorder of Deeds Michael Butler, who is a former chair of the Missouri Democratic Party, and businessman Andrew Jones, a Republican who has run twice before. Neither of them, however, has raised much money to secure a spot in next month's general election.
A new poll—the first and probably only one of the entire primary—also shows Jones and Spencer on track to advance. The Republican firm Remington Research, in a survey for the tip-sheet Missouri Scout, finds that 51% of respondents say they'll "definitely" or "probably" select Spencer, while 38% say the same about the mayor. Butler has the backing of just 24% of the sample, while Jones brings up the rear with 13%.
Thanks to approval voting, support for the four candidates in the race totals 126%, and it will almost certainly exceed 100% after the votes are tallied tonight.
San Mateo County, CA Ballot & Sheriff
Members of the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors are asking voters in this Bay Area community to approve a ballot measure that would empower them to remove Sheriff Christina Corpus, who has been at the center of a local scandal.
An independent investigation released last year concluded that Corpus had an inappropriate relationship with her chief of staff and had a history of using racist and homophobic language. The report concluded, "Lies, secrecy, intimidation, retaliation, conflicts of interest, and abuses of authority are the hallmarks of the Corpus administration." The sheriff responded by blasting the probe as a "mean-spirited political scheme."
Corpus' detractors argue that the situation is so serious that they can't wait for a recall campaign to reach the ballot, a process that could take another year. This plan, which supervisors placed before voters, would temporarily give them the ability to "remove an elected Sheriff from office, for cause, with a four-fifths vote." This power would only last through the end of 2028, which is also when Corpus' term is set to expire.
The board would almost certainly be able to obtain that supermajority, as four of the five supervisors are urging voters to vote "yes" on Measure A. (Jackie Speier, a former Democratic congresswoman, has not taken sides.)
Corpus is calling for voters to oppose what she says is an attempt to circumvent the recall process. She's argued that supervisors are "exploiting the historically low turnout of special elections to push their own agenda," which the sheriff blasted as "a political maneuver to remove a duly elected official without giving the public a fair say."
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Governors
CO-Gov
Republican state Sen. Mark Baisley said Friday that he's decided to run for governor, though the news was largely overshadowed by reports about the potential interest in the office on the part of a different senator with the same initials—Democratic U.S. Senator Michael Bennet, that is.
Baisley, who revealed his plans to Colorado Public Radio's Bente Birkeland, has touted himself as a Donald Trump ally despite Trump's poor performance at the top of the ticket. State Rep. Scott Bottoms was already seeking the GOP nod for a post the party last won in 2002.
ME-Gov
Republican state Rep. Laurel Libby, who was censured by the Maine House last week after she publicized the name and photo of a high school athlete she identified as transgender on social media, is not ruling out a bid for governor next year.
As a result of her censure, which passed along party lines, Libby is barred from speaking on the House floor or casting votes in the chamber unless she apologizes, which she's refused to do. Libby's actions have turned her into an instant celebrity in right-wing circles while Democrats have castigated her for exposing a teenager to public attack.
"A child within my school, my community, has faced threats and public ridicule from adults due to the actions of one of our colleagues in this very body," said Democratic state Rep. Christina Mitchell as Libby's censure was being debated.
Libby is the first Republican to show any obvious interest this year in entering the race to succeed Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, who is termed out, though a few others floated their names in December. Several prominent Democrats are also in the mix but none have launched campaigns yet.
RI-Gov
Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee announced his bid for a second full term on Monday, but just as he did in 2022, he's likely to face competition in the Democratic primary.
McKee's most likely opponent is former CVS executive Helena Foulkes, who hasn't yet kicked off a campaign but has already banked more than $1 million—roughly double what the incumbent has on hand. But another possibility is state House Speaker Joe Shekarchi, who declined to rule out a run late last year and is still the subject of "plenty of chatter," according to the Boston Globe's Dan McGowan.
Three years ago, McKee edged past Foulkes by a 33-30 margin en route to a wide 58-39 win in the general election over Republican businesswoman Ashley Kalus, who's considering another bid.
Mayors & County Leaders
Pittsburgh, PA Mayor
A Democratic primary challenger to Pittsburgh's incumbent mayor is receiving substantial aid from Republican donors, according to a new report, just as a newly released internal poll shows him up by double digits.
Several major Republicans have contributed to Allegheny County Controller Corey O'Connor's bid to oust Mayor Ed Gainey, writes Joan Greve in the Guardian.
One of O'Connor's cross-party allies is Jeff Kendall, an official at a prominent conservative group called Commonwealth Partners. Kendall organized a close-door event featuring O'Connor last month at which he promised the candidate would "open the meeting with his pitch and answer questions."
O'Connor's team responded by saying he delivered "the same stump speech that he has shared with hundreds of residents and dozens of community organizations across Pittsburgh," and that "[t]he campaign did not know who would be in attendance in advance."
Gainey, a prominent progressive and the city's first Black mayor, did not accept that response. He told reporters Monday, "There's one place I didn't expect to have to fend the MAGA assault, and that was the mayoral primary race."
The Guardian's story broke shortly after Axios reported on a mid-February poll that found O'Connor defeating Gainey 47-35. This survey, which was conducted by Lake Research Partners for an unknown client, is the first we've seen of this contest.
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Obituaries
Lincoln Diaz-Balart
Former Florida Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, a Republican who was one of the nation's most prominent Cuban American politicians during the 18 years he represented the Miami area in Congress, died Monday at age 70.
The Havana-born Diaz-Balart, whose aunt was Fidel Castro's first wife, was first elected to the House in 1992, and he played a key role in enshrining the United States' decades-old embargo against Cuba into law. A decade later, Diaz-Balart was joined in Congress by his younger brother, Mario Diaz-Balart, who won a neighboring seat in 2002.
Lincoln Diaz-Balart never had trouble holding Florida's 21st District, and he won his final term in 2008 by easily defeating a prominent Democratic opponent, former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez. His sibling had a tougher time that cycle defending the 25th District, though, likely leading to the surprising maneuver they engineered two years later.
The brothers announced in 2010 that Lincoln would retire from office—and that Mario would replace him in the 21st District. The move worked well for the younger Diaz-Balart, who never again faced a close election and remains in the House today. Republicans, though, would have a challenging time holding and keeping the younger Diaz-Balart's old seat: After it was renumbered as the 26th District in 2012, four different incumbents lost reelection over the ensuing decade.
The NRCC has, per Politico, advised its members to stop doing in person town halls, which sure screams confidence
Dems across ideological spectrum are telling leadership that voting for a 'clean' spending bill would be tacitly blessing Musk’s controversial work, and that denying Republicans the votes they’ll need to keep the agencies open would be the lesser evil," wrote Bade.
One prominent Democratic lawmaker told Politico, “At some point you’ve got to have a goddamn backbone. I am not giving them a blank check until September.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/have-a-backbone-dem-lawmakers-tell-leadership-to-force-mike-johnson-s-hand/ar-AA1AexJ8?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4f7152f9d7974702ab0250e973490206&ei=11
Republicans have control. If they can't get their spending bill through, it's their fault.