Morning Digest, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics: Why Musk's victims could form the Democratic Party's vanguard in 2026

One angry laid-off veteran is mooting a run for Congress. More will follow.

Marine veteran Andrew Lennox (right) speaks with Michigan Rep. Debbie Dingell (credit: Rep. Debbie Dingell Facebook)

MI-07

A Marine veteran who was recently fired from his job at a VA hospital may have his sights on challenging a Republican congressman for reelection—and he could be just the first in a wave of Elon Musk's many victims ready to roll back Trumpism at the ballot box.

Democrat Andrew Lennox, who's received a great deal of media attention since getting "fired by DOGE" (as he's put it) last month, is considering a bid for public office, reports Melissa Nann Burke at the Detroit News. Lennox, who served in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria, doesn't seem to have specified what race he's interested in, but he's expressed particular ire toward freshman GOP Rep. Tom Barrett.

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The congressman, says Lennox, has rebuffed his pleas for help with his employment situation, but matters took on a different cast last week, after Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin invited Lennox to be her guest at Donald Trump's address to Congress on Tuesday. Shortly after Slotkin announced the news, Lennox says that Barrett's office called to offer him a paid fellowship—a move he reacted to with hostility.

"It's too late for Republican leadership to feign concern for veterans while simultaneously endorsing the arbitrary and illegal terminations of federal employees ― terminations that are devastating families and undermining the very government institutions we swore to defend," he wrote on social media.

Last year, Barrett won the race for Slotkin's open 7th District in the Lansing area, defeating Democrat Curtis Hertel 50-47. Given the narrow margin, his seat will likely be a top battleground in 2026. So far, no Democrats have stepped up to run, but Lennox could offer an appealing profile and a pointed story to tell.

So could many other laid-off government employees. Lennox, says Burke, believes "the DOGE episode has motivated a whole generation of federal workers to political activism." Amanda Litman, the head of the progressive recruitment group Run for Something, told Politico recently that her organization has seen a spike of interest in the wake of Musk's firings.

"I expect we will see some candidates this year and next year who will talk about how Donald Trump and Elon Musk fired them while they were working for the American people," said Litman. "It's a pretty compelling campaign message."

The Downballot Podcast

Fired gov't workers could be Democrats' best candidates

Federal workers who've gotten smashed by Elon Musk's wrecking ball cut a sympathetic figure and have a compelling story to tell—and they could prove to be Democrats' best candidates. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard discuss why Andrew Lennox, a Marine veteran fired from the VA, is likely just the first of many former government employees whose righteous fury Republican office-holders will feel first-hand at the ballot box.

The Davids also welcome on Texas state Rep. Mihaela Plesa for a deep dive into Lone Star politics. Plesa, who represents one of just a handful of competitive House seats in the state, explains how Democrats, despite being in the minority, have forged alliances with establishment Republicans to keep the far-right at bay. She also previews the looming fight over school vouchers and tells us what to look for in next year's elections.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

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Senate

LA-Sen

Louisiana Treasurer John Fleming has publicized an internal poll conducted for his campaign that shows him with an advantage over Sen. Bill Cassidy in next year's Republican primary.

The survey from JMC Analytics gives Fleming a 29-27 edge over the incumbent, with state Sen. Blake Miguez taking 6% and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta at 2%. (It takes a majority of the vote to avoid a primary runoff in the Pelican State, which recently abandoned its all-party primary system for congressional races.)

Neither Miguez nor Skrmetta has committed to running, and Fleming would like to keep them from doing so, since JMC's survey also shows him with a wider 40-27 lead in a one-on-one battle with Cassidy. Fleming launched his campaign to unseat Cassidy, who voted to convict Donald Trump following the Jan. 6 riot, back in December, and he remains his only serious intraparty opponent.

This is the first primary poll we've seen from anyone. Cassidy, who is trying to return to Trump's good races, recently touted a Morning Consult survey that showed him with a 69% approval rating with registered Republicans; however, he notably has not accompanied those nice numbers with any campaign polling testing his prospects against Fleming or other possible opponents.

NC-Sen

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper would start off with a lead against Republican Sen. Thom Tillis in a potential preview of one of next year’s top Senate races, according to new survey data from Public Policy Polling shared exclusively with The Downballot.

Cooper, a top target of Democratic recruiters, holds a 47-43 edge over Tillis, including a 53-39 advantage with self-identified independents. At the same time, 47% of voters hold a favorable view of the former two-term governor while 42% see him unfavorably. Tillis, by contrast, is in the doldrums: Just 25% of respondents approve of the job he's doing while 46% disapprove.

"Roy Cooper was popular throughout his time as governor and continues to be more well-liked than not in one of the most divided states in the country," said PPP's director, Tom Jensen. "Thom Tillis has never been popular but benefited from a pro-GOP political climate in 2014 and 2020. If 2026 is a normal midterm, he's going to have a hard time getting reelected."

Given North Carolina's perennial swing state status, Tillis heads into next year's elections as one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the Senate. Cooper, meanwhile, has been one of the most successful Democrats in the Tar Heel State, winning election statewide six times: four times for attorney general and twice for governor, most recently in 2020.

Cooper has yet to launch a campaign, but he held open the possibility that he might challenge Tillis in a December interview with ABC11 just before his final term concluded.

"Everything right now is on the table," Cooper said. "I'm going to examine that after a few months from leaving office. I'm going to look at that as one of many potentials that I could do."

PPP, a Democratic pollster, fielded its survey of 662 North Carolina voters from March 4-5. It was not conducted on behalf of any client.

The Downballot is committed to bringing you trustworthy data from reliable sources—and explaining what it all means. If you value our rigorous curation and careful analysis, we hope you’ll support us by becoming a paid subscriber today!

Governors

GA-Gov, GA-06

Rep. Lucy McBath formed an exploratory committee on Wednesday for her long-anticipated run for governor. Several other prominent Georgia Democrats are eyeing this open-seat contest, but none of them have gone as far as the congresswoman in organizing a campaign.

While McBath did not announce that she would run to replace Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein writes that her backers anticipate she'll do so "within weeks." McBath would be both the first woman to lead the state as well as its first Black governor.

A statewide campaign from McBath would also open up her 6th District in the western Atlanta suburbs, a one-time battleground that GOP mapmakers made safely Democratic to protect their hold on neighboring seats. Bluestein mentions state Sen. Sonya Halpern as one possible contender, but other names are sure to surface. Halpern and any other interested state legislators, though, are currently busy with the legislative session, which ends early next month.

MI-Gov

The conservative group GOPAC has released a survey from National Research showing Rep. John James beating its endorsed candidate, state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, 38-17 in next year's Republican primary, with former Attorney General Mike Cox taking 10%. The memo argues that Nesbitt, the only member of this trio who's announced he's running for governor of Michigan, can pull ahead once voters learn more about him.

RI-Gov

Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee's limited campaign rollout earlier this week failed to quiet doubts about his bid for a second full term but instead prompted a new round of reporting about another major Democrat who could step up to challenge him—if he even runs again.

That's not what McKee hoped for when he released a video on Monday touting his accomplishments and pledging, "We're just getting started." The governor's campaign manager went as far as to tell Rhode Island Current that, while McKee would wait until next year to officially launch his reelection effort, his campaign "wanted to dispel any doubts that the governor will not run for reelection, as has been speculated by some in the news media and political circles."

But according to Boston Globe columnist Dan McGowan, the move has had precisely the opposite effect. McGowan notes that not only did the state Democratic Party fail to mention the launch video in its newsletter, chair Liz Beretta Perik also wouldn't commit to backing McKee. Speaker Joe Shekarchi also declined to endorse the governor and signaled to McGowan that he'd oppose several of his priorities even as he reaffirmed that he probably won't run against McKee.

Still, the 73-year-old incumbent will almost certainly face a primary rematch against former CVS executive Helena Foulkes, but she's not the only Democrat who could be eyeing the race. While Attorney General Peter Neronha said in December he was considering running for lieutenant governor—potentially as a Foulkes ally—McGowan says that he's "suddenly back in the mix" for the top job.

McGowan highlights the attorney general's work suing the Trump administration in explaining why Neronha might be considering setting his sights higher. Neronha, though, has yet to confirm any renewed interest.

Neronha's deliberations, however, may not matter much to Foulkes, whom McGowan says "would remain in the race even if Taylor Swift threw her hat in the ring." McKee and Foulkes, though, should at least be relieved that Swift, who owns the state's most expensive home, does not seem to want to be its governor.

House

FL-19

Former Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis has filed paperwork with the FEC for a potential campaign to succeed Rep. Byron Donalds, a fellow Republican who is running for governor of Florida. And no, we didn't get that pairing of states wrong: A whole passel of washed-up politicians from elsewhere in the country have their eyes on Donalds' now-open House seat in South Florida.

The 78-year-old Oberweis, who unsuccessfully ran for the House or statewide office in the Land of Lincoln seven times between 2002 and 2020, has not publicly confirmed whether he'll run for the 19th District around Fort Myers. As we've long noted, not everyone who sets up an FEC committee ends up running—something that Oberweis, who accidentally filed to run for the Senate in 2019 when he meant to seek a House seat, can attest to.

TX-18

Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner died Wednesday morning at the age of 70, two months into his first term in the House. The former Houston mayor, who said in 2022 that he'd successfully recovered from bone cancer, had attended Donald Trump's address to Congress hours before his death.

A special election will be held to replace Turner, who was elected to represent Texas' 18th District last year following the death of longtime Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee. State law does not set a deadline for Republican Gov. Greg Abbott to schedule a special election for this safely Democratic seat, which includes parts of central and northern Houston, though it could be held as soon as May.

All contenders will run on one ballot rather than in separate party primaries, but a runoff would be held if no candidate wins a majority of the vote. A second round of voting would likely pit two Democrats against one another.

Turner joined the House this year after a long career in local office that began with his 1988 victory for a spot in the state House. The Democrat made a name for himself during his quarter-century in the legislature as an ardent foe of the GOP's tax cuts, and he became known for brandishing an abacus on the floor to demonstrate that his opponents' math didn't add up.

Turner's 1991 and 2003 campaigns for mayor ended in defeat, but he was an early favorite in the packed 2015 contest to lead America's fourth-largest city. Turner's opponent in the runoff was businessman Bill King, a conservative independent who had previously served as former mayor of the suburb of Kemah.

Houston's status as a Democratic bastion in this red state made Turner the frontrunner, but King put up a strong fight. Low turnout and questions about the city's financial stability gave King an opening, but Turner's strong base of support with fellow Black voters helped him. The Democrat ultimately squeaked by with a 50.1-49.9 win—a margin of fewer than 600 votes.

Turner's eight years in office were defined by his response to the devastation of Hurricane Harvey in 2017, the COVID pandemic, and his long political battles with police and firefighter unions over pension and pay. Turner also attracted attention for boosting Houston's annual Anime Matsuri convention by loyally attending in costume. The event's founder extolled Turner as a mayor who "makes you proud to be a Houstonian," adding, "He's not afraid to cosplay."

Turner earned a second term in the 2019 runoff by scoring a 56-44 victory over wealthy independent Tony Buzbee, who four years later would successfully defend Attorney General Ken Paxton in his impeachment trial. Turner was not able to run again in 2023 due to term limits but backed Jackson Lee's campaign to replace him. However, she lost badly to fellow Democrat John Whitmire.

Turner seemed to be done with elected office until last summer, when Jackson Lee died just weeks after she announced she was being treated for pancreatic cancer. It was up to local Democratic leaders to pick a new nominee to replace the congresswoman, who had won the primary for what would have been her 16th term, and Turner put his name forward.

Turner's main opponent for the party's nod was former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, who had just challenged the congresswoman for renomination. The former mayor had the support of both Jackson Lee's children and also pledged to serve a maximum of two terms to be a "bridge from where we are right now."

Turner won 41-37 in the second and final round of balloting at a party gathering, but he opted not to run in the special election for the remaining two months of Jackson Lee's term in the 118th Congress. Turner instead backed the late congresswoman's daughter, Erica Lee Carter, who won the seat in November as Turner was securing the full term.

Ballot Measures

San Mateo County, CA Ballot and Sheriff

Voters in this Bay Area county overwhelmingly approved a ballot measure on Tuesday empowering the Board of Supervisors to remove scandal-ridden Sheriff Christina Corpus. Measure A leads 85-15 as of Wednesday afternoon, a margin far too large for any late-counted ballots to reverse.

Mayors & County Leaders

Prince George's County, MD Executive

State's Attorney Aisha Braveboy decisively won the special Democratic primary to succeed Angela Alsobrooks, who resigned last year after winning Maryland's open Senate race, as Prince George's County executive.

Braveboy, who had Gov. Wes Moore's endorsement, beat out former Executive Rushern Baker 43-21. County Councilmember Calvin Hawkins, who had Alsobrooks' support, finished just behind with 20%. Braveboy is all but assured victory in the June 3 general election to lead this dark blue county.

St. Louis, MO Mayor

Mayor Tishaura Jones and Alderwoman Cara Spencer will compete in the April 8 general election for St. Louis mayor, and the results of Tuesday's approval voting primary indicate that Spencer is well-positioned to avenge her narrow loss from four years ago.

Spencer earned the support of 68% of voters, while just 33% cast a vote for her fellow Democrat. Two other contenders, Recorder of Deeds Michael Butler and businessman Andrew Jones, secured votes from 25% and 14% of voters, respectively.

Because voters can cast as many votes as there are candidates—with a maximum of one vote per candidate—support for the four candidates hit 140%. Next month, however, voters will be restricted to just one choice in the officially nonpartisan general election.

Obituaries

Robert Clark

Former Mississippi state Rep. Robert Clark, a Democrat whose 1967 election made him the first Black person to serve in the legislature since Reconstruction, died Tuesday at 96. Clark spent his first eight years as the sole African American in either chamber, a period that saw his colleagues isolate him.

Clark, however, eventually rose to both chair the powerful Education Committee and serve as speaker pro tem, a role that made him the chamber's presiding officer when the speaker was absent. Clark did not seek reelection in 2003 and was succeeded by his son, Bryant Clark, who still holds his father's old seat.