Yep. My question was directed to Jonathan. NBC's final poll--which came as close as any media poll to nailing it--also showed that low-propensity voters were overwhelmingly leaning Trump. Voters whose likelihood to vote ranked at 9 or 10 were tied in that poll. Voters whose likelihood to vote was ranked at 7 or 8 were going Harris +2. And the voters who were at 6 or less for likelihood to vote supported Trump +16. Shor's findings were absolutely consistent with that.
imo Millions of Biden voters stayed home; Harris lost by about 250,000 in 3 states that matter; i contend city voters turned out in lots fewer % than rural voters; so, imo the above analysis is flawed; it is a debatable topic in my view
Yes but overall turnout was down and Harris lost a more Biden votes than Trump gained from 2020 (millions of blue state D voters stayed home) . . so I don't think anyone can make a clear cut definitive statement either way. I think if we'd had 2020-level turnout Harris would've concievably won the PV if not the EC.
im currently watching 4 basketball games; so, if im slow in responding, its not that im ignoring you or anything like that(perhaps we can take this discussion into the weekend open thread?)
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/23/us/politics/trump-turning-point-arizona-2024-election.html
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/presidential-polls-2024-battleground-tracker/
https://abcnews.go.com/538/vote-back-trump/story?id=109090626
https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/news/politics/elections/2025/02/25/10xvotes-friends-relatives-get-out-conservative-vote/80219807007/
Yep. My question was directed to Jonathan. NBC's final poll--which came as close as any media poll to nailing it--also showed that low-propensity voters were overwhelmingly leaning Trump. Voters whose likelihood to vote ranked at 9 or 10 were tied in that poll. Voters whose likelihood to vote was ranked at 7 or 8 were going Harris +2. And the voters who were at 6 or less for likelihood to vote supported Trump +16. Shor's findings were absolutely consistent with that.
imo Millions of Biden voters stayed home; Harris lost by about 250,000 in 3 states that matter; i contend city voters turned out in lots fewer % than rural voters; so, imo the above analysis is flawed; it is a debatable topic in my view
Trump picked up 3 million more voters between 2020 and 2024.
Data and polling both tell us they were in a large part low propensity.
Yes but overall turnout was down and Harris lost a more Biden votes than Trump gained from 2020 (millions of blue state D voters stayed home) . . so I don't think anyone can make a clear cut definitive statement either way. I think if we'd had 2020-level turnout Harris would've concievably won the PV if not the EC.
agreed; its debatable, not FACT, as stated above
im talking about the ones who stayed on their couch
im currently watching 4 basketball games; so, if im slow in responding, its not that im ignoring you or anything like that(perhaps we can take this discussion into the weekend open thread?)