The South Dakota state capitol (credit: WeaponizingArchitecture / CC BY-SA 4.0)
Leading Off
SD Ballot
Republicans in South Dakota have placed an amendment on next year's ballot that would make it harder to amend the state constitution—the latest in a long string of largely unsuccessful GOP attempts to muzzle direct democracy, most of which have been shot down by the voting public.
The measure, which would require approval by voters in November of 2026, would raise the threshold for passing amendments from a simple majority to 60%. The amendment's Republican sponsor, state Rep. John Hughes, argued that voters were "fatigued" after seven different measures appeared on the ballot last year, but it's not the first time in recent years the South Dakota GOP has sought to crack down on the initiative process.
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After voters passed a measure to impose restrictions on lobbying and created an independent ethics commission in 2016, Republican lawmakers simply repealed it, with Gov. Dennis Daugaard baselessly claiming that voters had been "hoodwinked by scam artists."
Two years later, voters rejected a GOP-backed amendment that would have increased the threshold for future amendments to 55%, defeating it by a 54-46 margin. The years that followed saw the passage of other reforms opposed by Republicans at the ballot box, including the legalization of medical marijuana in 2020.
But it was the looming possibility that voters would agree to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act after the GOP-dominated legislature had long refused to do so spurred yet another unsuccessful Republican effort to restrict the amendment process in 2022. This time, though, voters rebuffed a measure that would have required the Medicaid proposal to hit 60% of the vote in a 67-33 landslide in the June primary. The expansion plan passed 56-44 that fall.
Progressive measures did not fare well in 2024, with proposals to undo the state's near-total abortion ban and to allow the recreational use of marijuana both failing by double digits. That, however, has not stopped Republicans in South Dakota from advancing their latest effort to make future amendments tougher to pass—part of a long-running GOP campaign in more than a dozen states across the country to undermine direct democracy.
The good news for reformers is that most of these attempts have run aground, particularly as they've drawn more and more attention from voters. The biggest failure came in 2023, when Ohio Republicans similarly sought to impose a 60% supermajority requirement on new amendments in order to block an abortion rights measure. Voters rejected the former and embraced the latter, both by the same 57-43 margin.
Despite this record of failure, South Dakota Republicans are not alone in trying to convince voters to diminish their own power. Their counterparts in Utah, for instance, want voters to approve a 60% threshold for tax-related initiatives in 2026, even after the state Supreme Court voided a GOP amendment to neuter the initiative process last year.
Recent history, though, shows that voters—even those in red states—are seldom interested in rolling back their rights.
In many states, ballot initiatives are one of the few ways voters have to make themselves heard. That’s why we’ve closely tracked the GOP assault on direct democracy for many years and continue to do so. If you value our coverage, please consider supporting The Downballot with a paid subscription.
Republican Rep. Michelle Fischbach took herself out of contention for the Senate on Monday by announcing that she'd seek a fourth term in Minnesota's safely red 7th District. Fischbach's move comes after the three other Republican members of the state's House delegation—Tom Emmer, Brad Finstad, and Pete Stauber—all said that they would not run to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith.
Florida Sen. Rick Scott has endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds for governor, the post that Scott held from 2011 to 2019. Donald Trump previously endorsed the congressman, who so far lacks any major opposition in next year's GOP primary.
House
AZ-07
Arizona Democrats are already eyeing the special election to succeed former Rep. Raul Grijalva, who died last week after serving in the House for more than two decades.
Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, the late congressman's daughter, said in a statement that she would wait to decide until after her father's funeral, which will be on March 26. Separately, a spokesperson for Secretary of State Adrian Fontes tells the Arizona Republic's Laura Gersony that he's "seriously considering" the race.
Former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez, meanwhile, did not "directly answer" a question from Gersony about his interest. She adds, though, that Hernandez's two siblings, state Reps. Alma Hernandez and Consuelo Hernandez, have both said they won't run. The same is true for Tucson Mayor Regina Romero, who quickly took her name out of the running.
The special election for the solidly blue 7th District will take place on Sept. 23, with a primary—which is likely to be the dispositive race—set for July 15. Candidates must file by April 14.
FL-13
Democrat Whitney Fox declined to answer a question about whether she might seek a rematch against GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna at a recent town hall event that featured a cardboard cutout of the congresswoman, who has declined to host in-person gatherings for her constituents after the NRCC directed House Republicans to stop doing so.
Fox, a former official with the local transit authority, lost to Luna last year by a 55-45 margin in Florida's 13th District, located in the St. Petersburg area. Donald Trump carried the district by a similar 55-44 spread, according to calculations by The Downballot.
NE-01, NE-02
Former union official Dan Osborn, who ran for Senate last year as an independent, now tells the Nebraska Examiner that he's considering a bid for Nebraska's conservative 1st Congressional District—on top of all the other races he's been eyeing.
Osborn has previously suggested he might run for the Senate again, or for Nebraska's open governorship, or for the 2nd District, or for Omaha mayor (though the filing deadline for that race, which takes place this spring, passed at the end of February).
The Omaha-based 2nd voted for Kamala Harris by a 52-47 margin, making Rep. Don Bacon the rare House Republican representing a blue district. But the more rural 1st, which almost completely surrounds the 2nd, backed Donald Trump 56-43 and supported GOP Rep. Mike Flood 60-40 for another term. In 2024, Osborn lost to Republican Sen. Deb Fischer 53-47 while Trump won the state as a whole 59-39.
In that contest, though, Osborn and his allies arranged things such that he faced no Democratic or third-party opponents. That's unlikely to be the case in the 2nd District, where state Democrats have pledged to once again field a competitive candidate—something Osborn seems to have acknowledged, since he wondered aloud to the Examiner, "Ultimately, would a three-way race be winnable with an independent?"
Osborn also indicated that he might make a decision by early March, a deadline that's now come and gone. The Examiner's Juan Salinas says the would-be candidate did not respond to queries about an updated timeline.
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has yet to schedule a special election to replace former Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner, who recently died just two months into his first term, but several Democrats are already making moves.
Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee was the first notable contender to declare a campaign for Texas' safely blue 18th District, kicking off his campaign hours after Turner's funeral on Saturday.
He did so with an endorsement from former Rep. Erica Lee Carter, the daughter of the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee who last year won the special election for the last two months of her mother's term. (Turner did not compete in that race, while Carter did not run for a full term and instead backed Turner.)
Also joining the race is Aerospace industry consultant Isaiah Martin, who announced a bid on Monday. Martin briefly sought this seat in 2023 when it appeared that Jackson Lee, who at the time was running for mayor of Houston, might vacate it. However, Martin dropped out after Jackson Lee lost her mayoral bid and decided to seek reelection instead.
One person who forged ahead, though, was former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, who lost last year's primary to Jackson-Lee 60-37. Edwards issued a statement Monday promising a "MAJOR announcement" regarding the race on Wednesday.
We still don't know when the race to succeed Turner will take place, however, because Texas law does not set a deadline for the governor to act, saying only that he must do so "as soon as practicable." While special elections are normally consolidated with regular elections, another provision may allow Abbott to use "emergency" powers to set any date he prefers.
Obituaries
Nita Lowey
Former Democratic Rep. Nita Lowey, who represented Westchester County and other neighboring suburbs north of New York City for more than 30 years, died on Saturday at the age of 87.
Lowey first came to Congress after defeating two-term Republican Rep. Joe DioGuardi (the father of future American Idol judge Kara DioGuardi) by a narrow 50-47 margin, but thereafter, she never won reelection by less than double digits. She rose to become the first woman to chair the Appropriations Committee, a post she held when she announced her retirement in the fall of 2019.
Lowey was succeeded in the House by fellow Democrat Mondaire Jones, who had kicked off a primary challenge against the incumbent a few months before she said she would not run again. We took an in-depth look at Lowey's political career on the occasion of her retirement.
Minnesota is quickly running out of viable candidates; im personally not surprised; with a decent Democratic nominee and Trump in office, i am feeling real good about an easy hold
Got a poll for NH senate. Tested Sununu and Brown on the republican side, with Goodlander and Pappas on the democratic side.
One of the question sets tested anti-MAGA messaging for the democratic candidates without a corresponding pro question set. That leads me to suspect the poll was done for one of Pappas or Goodlander.
Minnesota is quickly running out of viable candidates; im personally not surprised; with a decent Democratic nominee and Trump in office, i am feeling real good about an easy hold
Got a poll for NH senate. Tested Sununu and Brown on the republican side, with Goodlander and Pappas on the democratic side.
One of the question sets tested anti-MAGA messaging for the democratic candidates without a corresponding pro question set. That leads me to suspect the poll was done for one of Pappas or Goodlander.