I wonder what would have happened if Attorney General Josh Kaul, instead of going to the courts, simply had Elon Musk arrested and detained? With so much at stake, and Musk clearly in violation of the spirit and letter of the law – in state after state – it surprises me that AG Kaul didn’t choose to play hardball. It’s high time somebody did!
I haven't read any good analysis of exactly how they came to this conclusion, but it was a unanimous decision. I don't see how this is different from walking into a bar with $20 or $100 bills to entice people to vote.
Yes. Moreover, it wasn’t just Musk’s two million-dollar giveaways. His Wisconsin canvassers have been widely reported to offer young people $100 to vote in this election!
That $100 offer wasn't challenged here. The court unanimously refused to pre-enforce the law, for technical reasons (it's hard to do this, and in many ways that's as it should be). Also, what Musk did last night was gross but not illegal, as he offered $1 million to petition signers rather than to voters. I think it is more likely to backfire than to help his cause.
I do hope that whenever the Democrats next win the White House they denaturalize Musk under that 1952 law Rubio is using. There's certainly a better case that his presence in the country has "serious adverse foreign policy consequences for the United States" than with some student who co-wrote an op-ed for their campus paper.
Question: Can Democrats in Louisiana turn the overwhelming opposition to all four of Governor Jeff Landry’s referenda proposals into future candidate wins in that state? And if so, what is the best strategy?
Over the weekend, Kendall Scudder, who had the support of the Texas Progressive Caucus, received an outright majority of the vote in a seven-way race to become chair of the Texas Democratic Party.
I am the least confident in my Wisconsin Supreme Court prediction, as both candidates have completely different sets of fundamentals in their favor (Crawford has anti-Trump/Musk sentiment on her side; Schimel has the name recognition and money advantage, although, given the source of a lot of that money, the latter of those may be more of a curse than a blessing for Schimel).
The media will turn it into GOP disarray if they do terrible compared to how they should be. Sometimes winning isn’t everything, it’s the optics and media narrative. I’m not sure how much the media narrative matters anymore since that’s the reason why the GOP made sure to make the media not be trusted and called them fake news.
The big political earthquake to me is if turnout makes both FL-01 and FL-06 closer for Democrats than in years. Irrespective of who wins, turnout is the real question.
Based on what you are predicting, that would be the best Democrats can hope for until the ground game and image they have in FL changes.
That seems a bit pessimistic, I don’t think we’ll come close to winning FL-1, but a 26 point loss would be our 3rd-worst margin in any special election since 2020.
It’s really not much of an overperformance, we got 34% there with presidential election turnout in November, I’d be pretty surprised if we only did 3% better in a special election.
And for comparison’s sake, Trump won it by 37 points in 2024. He won OH-6 by 33 points, but we got the special election there last year within 10 points. Trump won NY-23 by 22 points in 2024, in the special in 2022 we lost it by 6.5 points. Big overperformances in Trump districts are possible.
A reminder: April Fool's jokes are prohibited on this site. This is a long-standing policy. Do not share or make any such jokes. And please be extra mindful tomorrow when sharing links, tweets, etc., because it's too easy to mistake a poorly executed "joke" for the truth. Thank you.
A good rule of thumb might be that if on April 1 you come across some alleged news that seems shocking (in a good or bad way), then you should wait at least a day to see if it's legit. For this site, that would include "OMG look who's running for this office!" or "whoa, she's resigning?" type stories.
I’ll settle for OMG, he fired JD and resigned the presidency! Elon is pissed and full of regret – has decided to privately re-establish USAID and fund it for 10 years, rehiring all its highly-qualified employees. And going forward he’s only supporting Democratic candidates. Moreover, he is now supporting the right MAGA: Mothers Against Greg Abbott.
Better yet: Kamala won and is actually running the country. We’ve been watching a reality show in which Trump is installed in a fake White House but doesn’t know it.
Hard same. I looooooove a good, creative April Fool's gag, but far, far, far too many people think that just means, "Making shit up." One of many things the internet has ruined, alas!
"Which Democrat in Illinois' House delegation starts off ahead in the Senate primary?"
A: If we're just talking $, Raja. The 4th best fund-raiser in the House.
I think Underwood would be extremely competitive in a multi-candidate field. Kelly is very well-regarded but seems to be on the House leadership track.
Kidnapping pro palestine students and deporting tattoo artists to el salvador does that. The next democratic president needs to sanction or cut all aid to el salvador.
Independents are also growing in voter registration and are key for Democrats if they want to win back plenty of the House seats that were close last year.
Will be interesting to see if Zemmour can seize the ring now, though Bardella (despite being Le Pen’s nephew-in-law) could benefit from being a fresh albeit remarkably young face for RN
Nice to see. I don't want us to have a bloody primary here. Candidates not throwing their hat into the ring helps that. Also doesn't hurt that Flanagan is my preferred candidate.
Yeah, yeah, I know that the Florida swings are not proportional, and no, this would not be how I bet a million bucks if I had a million bucks. But I think if there's ever a time where these races can shape up like my predictions have them, it would be right now.
On an entirely different note: In Illinois’s 9th Congressional district, the young Kat Abughazaleh is challenging Jan Schakowsky, who will be 81 years old in May. Sounds good, but Abughazaleh is described as a Content Creator?
What I want to know is WTF is a "Content Creator"? Are David Nir and Jeff Singer Content Creators? Was the photographer Robert Mapplethorpe a Content Creator? Is the songwriter Bob Dylan a Content Creator? Is Martin Scorsese a Content Creator? Was William Shakespeare a Content Creator? Enough with the inane titles!
Not sure if you want a serious answer. Assuming you do, my take:
"Content creator" as a job description is for people whose primary output is aimed primarily at parasocial relationships with their followers. The name itself is, as your comment notes, overly broad to the point of uselessness. You can see similar in video games with the genre of "role playing game" — every game, even something like Tetris, has the player adopting a role; the genre name is not informative. It is only if you know context beyond the literal genre name that you are able to understand what the genre means. In this case it's likely in part because a more accurate "parasocial relationship cultivator" sounds rather scummy as a job title.
Whatever the content they create, be it written word, videos, podcasts, or something else, is aimed at creating and reinforcing those parasocial relationships. The work of a "content creator" would cease to be of economic value if they were nameless, faceless creators who did not interact with the people that consume that work.
David and Jeff would not be classified as "content creators" because the primary value of their work is the work itself, not any interactions that the work enables (nice as those interactions may be). Same story for the others you name.
Influencers are content creators whose field of focus is specific product categories that result in them working as either direct or indirect advertising for brands or companies.
A federal court has ruled that PA election boards may not invalidate mail-in ballots simply because they lack accurate, handwritten dates on their exterior return envelopes. The RNC and one county had argued that the dates help to combat voting fraud. The court found that there was no evidence "demonstrating how this requirement furthers that purported interest.” Thus, “[s]uch disenfranchisement burdens the right to vote and there is no valid state interest to weigh this against" so "the exterior envelope dating mandate violates the U.S. Constitution by impairing the right to vote under the First and Fourteenth amendments.“ https://apnews.com/article/pennsylvania-mailin-ballots-voting-envelope-dates-a90a8eecfb23316206e70ea2bef1a886
Toby of MGData just posted updated Early Vote numbers from Wisconsin. Lots of analysis and details on his feed. Here are the top numbers heading into Election Day:
– Mail Ballot Requests: 386,429 (Deadline has passed)
– Mail Ballot Returns: 283,546 (73.86% return rate, +28,195 from Friday)
– IPAV*: 361,254 (55.60% of ballots cast, +72,730 from Friday)
2023 numbers for comparison:
– 329,400 Mail Ballot Requests (Gap +57,029)
– 235,538 Mail Ballot Returns (Gap +48,208, +2,912 from Friday)
– 71.44% Mail Return Rate (Gap +2.42%, -0.42% from Friday)
– 174,417 IPAV (Gap +186,837, +41,076 from Friday)
I would suggest asking David or Jeff, or one of the more experienced Substack users. I often get confused by both Substack and Discourse. And every once in a while Substack stops working properly, preventing me from interacting until I delete cookies.
I wonder what would have happened if Attorney General Josh Kaul, instead of going to the courts, simply had Elon Musk arrested and detained? With so much at stake, and Musk clearly in violation of the spirit and letter of the law – in state after state – it surprises me that AG Kaul didn’t choose to play hardball. It’s high time somebody did!
I haven't read any good analysis of exactly how they came to this conclusion, but it was a unanimous decision. I don't see how this is different from walking into a bar with $20 or $100 bills to entice people to vote.
Yes. Moreover, it wasn’t just Musk’s two million-dollar giveaways. His Wisconsin canvassers have been widely reported to offer young people $100 to vote in this election!
That $100 offer wasn't challenged here. The court unanimously refused to pre-enforce the law, for technical reasons (it's hard to do this, and in many ways that's as it should be). Also, what Musk did last night was gross but not illegal, as he offered $1 million to petition signers rather than to voters. I think it is more likely to backfire than to help his cause.
I do hope that whenever the Democrats next win the White House they denaturalize Musk under that 1952 law Rubio is using. There's certainly a better case that his presence in the country has "serious adverse foreign policy consequences for the United States" than with some student who co-wrote an op-ed for their campus paper.
Musk is the reason the word “expropriation” exists.
Wee little problem with the 5th amendment on that one.
It would have backfired in the election tomorrow.
I certainly agree with this.
Question: Can Democrats in Louisiana turn the overwhelming opposition to all four of Governor Jeff Landry’s referenda proposals into future candidate wins in that state? And if so, what is the best strategy?
Run John Bel Edwards again? (Louisiana governors are limited to two consecutive terms, but not two lifetime terms.)
Over the weekend, Kendall Scudder, who had the support of the Texas Progressive Caucus, received an outright majority of the vote in a seven-way race to become chair of the Texas Democratic Party.
Predictions for tomorrow?
WI SC: Crawford 53, Schimel 47
FL-01: Patronis 63, Valimont 37
FL-06: Fine 56, Weil 44
Here's my predictions:
WI-SC: Crawford 51, Schimel 49
WI-Sup: Underly 67, Kinser 33
FL-1: Patronis 59, Valimont 41
FL-6: Fine 54, Weil 46
I am the least confident in my Wisconsin Supreme Court prediction, as both candidates have completely different sets of fundamentals in their favor (Crawford has anti-Trump/Musk sentiment on her side; Schimel has the name recognition and money advantage, although, given the source of a lot of that money, the latter of those may be more of a curse than a blessing for Schimel).
well,if predictions like FL-6 come to pass why has everyone been so excited about this race?
Because the 2024 results were 67-33 in the house, 64-34 for president, and 63-35 for senate. R-D all values.
That it's been brought into the realm of plausible upset is incredible, even if that plausibility is still low.
The media will turn it into GOP disarray if they do terrible compared to how they should be. Sometimes winning isn’t everything, it’s the optics and media narrative. I’m not sure how much the media narrative matters anymore since that’s the reason why the GOP made sure to make the media not be trusted and called them fake news.
My prediction: Comfortable Crawford win; political earthquake in Florida.
WI-SC: Crawford 53.9 – Schimel 46.1
FL-6: Weil 50.1 – Fine 49.9
FL-1: Patronis 58 – Valimont 42
That's more like it! (-:
Mine:
WI-SC: Crawford (D) 54.2%, Schimel (R): 45.8%
FL-06: Fine (R) 51.4%, Weil (D) 48.6%
FL-01: Patronis (R) 60.5%, Valimont (D) 39.5%
St. Louis Mayor (D v. D): Spencer (Mod D) 65.7%, Jones (Prog D, inc.) 34.3%
The big political earthquake to me is if turnout makes both FL-01 and FL-06 closer for Democrats than in years. Irrespective of who wins, turnout is the real question.
Based on what you are predicting, that would be the best Democrats can hope for until the ground game and image they have in FL changes.
That seems a bit pessimistic, I don’t think we’ll come close to winning FL-1, but a 26 point loss would be our 3rd-worst margin in any special election since 2020.
But how many specials were in districts or states that red? If anything 37% is a significant overperformance for that district.
It’s really not much of an overperformance, we got 34% there with presidential election turnout in November, I’d be pretty surprised if we only did 3% better in a special election.
And for comparison’s sake, Trump won it by 37 points in 2024. He won OH-6 by 33 points, but we got the special election there last year within 10 points. Trump won NY-23 by 22 points in 2024, in the special in 2022 we lost it by 6.5 points. Big overperformances in Trump districts are possible.
If Trump won it by 37 and Fine wins it by 26, that’s a decent underperformance. I’d hope for better for us since Fine is particularly terrible.
It’s a really red seat. Comparing it to other specials doesn’t consider political lean of the district.
WI-SC: Crawford 53 – Schimel 47
FL-6: Fine 42 - Weil 48
FL-1: Patronis 55 – Valimont 45
WI-SC: Crawford 53.5, Schimel 46.5
FL-6: Fine 54, Weil 46
FL-01: Patronis 64, Valimont 36
WI SC: Crawford 54, Schimel 46
FL-01: Patronis 58, Valimont 42
FL-06: Fine 55, Weil 45
A reminder: April Fool's jokes are prohibited on this site. This is a long-standing policy. Do not share or make any such jokes. And please be extra mindful tomorrow when sharing links, tweets, etc., because it's too easy to mistake a poorly executed "joke" for the truth. Thank you.
A good rule of thumb might be that if on April 1 you come across some alleged news that seems shocking (in a good or bad way), then you should wait at least a day to see if it's legit. For this site, that would include "OMG look who's running for this office!" or "whoa, she's resigning?" type stories.
I’ll settle for OMG, he fired JD and resigned the presidency! Elon is pissed and full of regret – has decided to privately re-establish USAID and fund it for 10 years, rehiring all its highly-qualified employees. And going forward he’s only supporting Democratic candidates. Moreover, he is now supporting the right MAGA: Mothers Against Greg Abbott.
Better yet: Kamala won and is actually running the country. We’ve been watching a reality show in which Trump is installed in a fake White House but doesn’t know it.
Thanks for this. April Fool's is by far my least favorite "holiday."
Let’s hope there is a low turnout of fools in Wisconsin tomorrow, Tuesday April 1st.
Hard same. I looooooove a good, creative April Fool's gag, but far, far, far too many people think that just means, "Making shit up." One of many things the internet has ruined, alas!
"Which Democrat in Illinois' House delegation starts off ahead in the Senate primary?"
A: If we're just talking $, Raja. The 4th best fund-raiser in the House.
I think Underwood would be extremely competitive in a multi-candidate field. Kelly is very well-regarded but seems to be on the House leadership track.
trump at 42% (and falling) approval according to new FOX poll
That's an AP poll not Fox
https://apnorc.org/projects/trump-scores-better-marks-with-the-public-on-immigration-than-the-economy/
"Trump scores better marks with the public on immigration than the economy" and he is at 49/50 on immigration.
Pretty sure that's the first time he's been underwater on immigration though. Generally it's one of the issue he scores best on.
Kidnapping pro palestine students and deporting tattoo artists to el salvador does that. The next democratic president needs to sanction or cut all aid to el salvador.
I especially love seeing him tank with Independents by double digits on everything. That's the number I pay attention to the most in the polls.
For sure!
Independents are also growing in voter registration and are key for Democrats if they want to win back plenty of the House seats that were close last year.
Marine Le Pen has not only been found guilty of embezzlement but has been barred from running for public office for 5 years.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/31/marine-le-pen-barred-from-running-for-french-presidency-in-2027
Will be interesting to see if Zemmour can seize the ring now, though Bardella (despite being Le Pen’s nephew-in-law) could benefit from being a fresh albeit remarkably young face for RN
2027 in France seems impossible to handicap
I’m delighted to see that Marine Le Pen will also be doing time in prison!
The dynamic duo of Trafalgar/Insider Advantage had Crawford up 51-49.
Link please.
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/WI-Supreme-Court-Report-0331.pdf
Totally real poll.
I'd be happy with that result but hoping for a bigger thumping.
Ellison backing Flanagan for Senate.
https://www.mprnews.org/story/2025/03/31/ag-keith-ellison-isnt-running-for-us-senate
The right call - both backing Flanagan and not seeking higher off than AG himself
He'll probably run for Governor at some point assuming he holds the AG office but Walz freezes that this cycle if he runs again.
Nice to see. I don't want us to have a bloody primary here. Candidates not throwing their hat into the ring helps that. Also doesn't hurt that Flanagan is my preferred candidate.
Peggy Flanagan will make a terrific Senator.
Angie Craig hinted she'll run for Governor only if it's open and Walz retires. 💙🇺🇲
Here's my predictions:
WI-SC: Crawford 55, Schimel 45 (DEM hold)
WI-Sup: Underly 60, Kinser 40 (DEM hold)
FL-1: Patronis 49.9, Valimont 50.1 (DEM gain)
FL-6: Fine 48, Weil 52 (DEM gain)
Yeah, yeah, I know that the Florida swings are not proportional, and no, this would not be how I bet a million bucks if I had a million bucks. But I think if there's ever a time where these races can shape up like my predictions have them, it would be right now.
On an entirely different note: In Illinois’s 9th Congressional district, the young Kat Abughazaleh is challenging Jan Schakowsky, who will be 81 years old in May. Sounds good, but Abughazaleh is described as a Content Creator?
What I want to know is WTF is a "Content Creator"? Are David Nir and Jeff Singer Content Creators? Was the photographer Robert Mapplethorpe a Content Creator? Is the songwriter Bob Dylan a Content Creator? Is Martin Scorsese a Content Creator? Was William Shakespeare a Content Creator? Enough with the inane titles!
PS. Was Joseph Goebbels an Influencer?
We should start calling them "propagandists" instead.
Not sure if you want a serious answer. Assuming you do, my take:
"Content creator" as a job description is for people whose primary output is aimed primarily at parasocial relationships with their followers. The name itself is, as your comment notes, overly broad to the point of uselessness. You can see similar in video games with the genre of "role playing game" — every game, even something like Tetris, has the player adopting a role; the genre name is not informative. It is only if you know context beyond the literal genre name that you are able to understand what the genre means. In this case it's likely in part because a more accurate "parasocial relationship cultivator" sounds rather scummy as a job title.
Whatever the content they create, be it written word, videos, podcasts, or something else, is aimed at creating and reinforcing those parasocial relationships. The work of a "content creator" would cease to be of economic value if they were nameless, faceless creators who did not interact with the people that consume that work.
David and Jeff would not be classified as "content creators" because the primary value of their work is the work itself, not any interactions that the work enables (nice as those interactions may be). Same story for the others you name.
Influencers are content creators whose field of focus is specific product categories that result in them working as either direct or indirect advertising for brands or companies.
Thank you for a most informative reply!
A federal court has ruled that PA election boards may not invalidate mail-in ballots simply because they lack accurate, handwritten dates on their exterior return envelopes. The RNC and one county had argued that the dates help to combat voting fraud. The court found that there was no evidence "demonstrating how this requirement furthers that purported interest.” Thus, “[s]uch disenfranchisement burdens the right to vote and there is no valid state interest to weigh this against" so "the exterior envelope dating mandate violates the U.S. Constitution by impairing the right to vote under the First and Fourteenth amendments.“ https://apnews.com/article/pennsylvania-mailin-ballots-voting-envelope-dates-a90a8eecfb23316206e70ea2bef1a886
WISCONSIN UPDATE
Toby of MGData just posted updated Early Vote numbers from Wisconsin. Lots of analysis and details on his feed. Here are the top numbers heading into Election Day:
– Mail Ballot Requests: 386,429 (Deadline has passed)
– Mail Ballot Returns: 283,546 (73.86% return rate, +28,195 from Friday)
– IPAV*: 361,254 (55.60% of ballots cast, +72,730 from Friday)
2023 numbers for comparison:
– 329,400 Mail Ballot Requests (Gap +57,029)
– 235,538 Mail Ballot Returns (Gap +48,208, +2,912 from Friday)
– 71.44% Mail Return Rate (Gap +2.42%, -0.42% from Friday)
– 174,417 IPAV (Gap +186,837, +41,076 from Friday)
https://nitter.poast.org/TobyMGData
*) IPAV = In-Person Absentee Vote
(Nitter is a way to access Tweets without having to visit Musk’s Xitter.)
Nitter doesn't work for me.
Here is Toby’s Tweet feed on X:
https://x.com/TobyMGData
Atlas Intel on Wisconsin Supreme Court race:
Crawford 53-46.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2025/Atlas_Intel_Wisconsin_Supreme_Court.pdf
That’s remarkably close to my prediction:
WI-SC: Crawford 53.9 – Schimel 46.1
I stopped getting all activity alert on substack but my settings are alright. Any way to fix this?
I would suggest asking David or Jeff, or one of the more experienced Substack users. I often get confused by both Substack and Discourse. And every once in a while Substack stops working properly, preventing me from interacting until I delete cookies.