Applying ranked choice here, Cuomo crosses 50% in the seventh round. By the tenth and final one, he defeats Mamdani 70-30 in a one-on-one.
It should be remembered that there's still time for things to change; had polling in March 2021 held up, then Mayor Andrew Yang would be running for reelection. But Cuomo is much stronger than Yang, and defeating him will probably require a quick coalescing around one serious opposition candidate, and I'm not at all sure if Mamdani is or should be it, at least from an electoral perspective.
Yeah, RCV in the city is a mess because ideologues rank only one or two people and leave the rest blank. Whose idea was it?
On another subject, will they resume the federal case on Eric Adams when he's out of office (they didn't dismiss with prejudice so as to keep a Sword of Damocles over him)? Goodness knows what they thought they could get out of him. All he can do is moan about how powerless he is to stop crime, migrants, etc.
It did not disappoint when it elected Fiorella LaGuardia mayor, Robert F. Kennedy and Herbert Lehman to the Senate, and Shirley Chisholm, Bella Abzug, Eliot Engel, Nita Lowey, Ritchie Torres, and AOC to the House.
You forgot FDR. How far back do you want to go? I’m referring to the two decades or so. And Ritchie Torres? Good grief. You might as well include Eric Adams while you’re at it.
Beware of Trumpian hyperboles. You said "never" fail to disappoint. You don't have to go very far back to find several meritorious members of Congress from New York. And, no, I do not credit Eric Adams, Anthony Weiner, or George Santos.
Is it dishonest writing if we don't include every example against a wider trend? Is it hyperbolic of me to say "Trump is racist" because I'm not accounting for every time he displayed respect for someone of color?
Paleo was commenting on the wider trend of recent NYC/NY Democratic politics and their frustration with it. To come in and scold them by saying "beware of Trumpian hyperboles" just makes you look like a jackass tbh.
He's generally to the right of what you'd expect from his district. Pro cryptocurrency, very pro police, goes with republicans on the latest anti-immigrant bills. There's enough to dislike about him without going into the banned topic.
Also there's some flip-flops on those issues for him too. Many people might not like someone voting with republicans on the Laken Riley act, but will accept it from politicians who are consistent. But someone who votes against the bill and then later votes for it is going to annoy people more. Comes across as having no true ideological core.
I doubt he'd raise much ire if he represented a D+5 seat or some such, but he represents a D+35 district, which is in a three way tie for 9th bluest district in the country. AOC's seat, for reference, is D+28. The entire state of Vermont is D+16 and Massachusetts D+15. This is a hyper-blue seat that should have a consistent progressive with good messaging skills in it.
Adams-Cuomo at 46% combined in the first round. If the opposition was united and focused on hammering Cuomo's obvious liabilities I think an Anti-Adams-Cuomo coalition could win but looks like NYC is going to have scandal plagued mayors through the rest of the decade.
I like Bellows, would be great to see her become governor. Not sure how she'll fare in a contested primary, but at least with what I know she's the candidate I like the most.
Some people might hold her 2014 defeat to Collins against her, but considering how the year turned out and that she was very new to politics at the time I don't see it as a mark against her.
Collins herself flopped in her first bid for elected office, that being a three way race for governor in 1994, in which Angus King came out on top. Two years later she ran an improved campaign to replace Sen. William Cohen, for whom she had worked.
I didn’t hold her 2014 loss against her. I held it against all the commenters who talked her up tbh. Which, I can be rigid about races that look hopeless but I look too hard the numbers, which is how losing becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Actually, I’m rooting for her even more bc of that loss. She went for it when few wanted to. That is one of my top qualities for candidates - they’re not afraid to go big when going home is almost guaranteed. Means they’re running for all the right reasons.
Well said. If we’re serious about a 50-state strategy, it means NEVER leaving any race unchallenged – and that means having candidates who are willing to run and fight their darnedest against every hard odds.
Bellows did challenge Susan Collins in her Senate race back in 2014 but that was a lost cause as Collins back then didn’t have the vulnerabilities as an incumbent.
Bellows I think will have it easier in the gubernatorial race as she won’t have Collins as a GOP challenger to deal with.
I do think Janet Mills would be a strong candidate against Susan Collins. Although I wish she was younger, Mills has at least one good Senate term in her.
Thankfully should Mills run and defeat Collins in 2026, she'll be up in a Presidential Election year next time, making it easier for us to put up a candidate that year.
Where is Mills from? It will be important for any Democratic candidate not to be from or associated with Portland. Someone from the 2nd Congressional District would be very desirable, I think especially someone from a city like Bangor or some small town or rural area that's not a coastal resort.
Farmington is at the heart of Franklin County, which is part of Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. Although there are Blue spots in ME-02, the district is quite Red. It’s currently represented by Jared Golden, but Trump won here.
Janet Mills has broad credibility and is definitely not seen as part of some coastal elite.
I don't believe being from Portland is a big issue in Maine. Candidates just need to appear authentic. Which is true regardless of where their home is.
Something like 40% of the state lives in the Portland metro area. Angus King lives in Brunswick, which is in the metro area and about 30 minutes from Portland proper.
The thing is, Portland is the Democratic base, so if you want to appeal to swing voters, it would presumably be beneficial not to be too closely associated with Portland. King has the cachet of being an independent, which sets him apart.
Last year, before the election, I was on a group call with Angus King. I asked him whether he supported getting rid of the filibuster, at least for voting rights and abortion. He was against, but impressed me with a very thoughtful answer why he had moved from Yes to No.
I agree that he's real, but I don't get how you'd be impressed with a thoughtful answer on why undemocratic means should be usable in the Senate to sustain forced birth and discrimination against voters, if I understand you correctly.
People can appeal to swing voters regardless of where they are from. This isn't like NY where everyone outside of NYC hates NYC and erroneously thinks they are funding the city when it's actually the other way around. Portland is just Portland.
It's also not like ideological extremes are inherently disqualifying in Maine, as we can see by LePage being elected. Certainly we'd have better odds if we had a bog-standard democrat, and even better than that with a moderate one, but that doesn't mean the candidate has to come from outside Portland.
And there's also value in keeping your base on board. I think regional factors will largely be a wash in this type of state.
Your remarks about a lack of regional animosity are noted though different from what some other folks have stated on these boards before, but the fact that a Republican extremist was able to win twice is no kind of evidence that really leftist Democrats can win state-wide.
"… among those polled who said they already voted, more than half supported the Democrat. Weil leads 51% to 43% among those whose decision has already been made via a mail-in ballot or in-person early voting. According to the survey, about 38% of likely voters have already cast their ballots in the race."
EDIT: I do hope there is a strong Democratic stealth GOTV operation right now!
Naturally, with Obama not being able to get Merrick Garland confirmed as Supreme Court Justice it makes sense for him to lend his endorsement and influence to a race like this.
Endorsements like this are more useful for keeping the race on people's minds and increasing engagement and all that. Headlines of Obama's endorsement will make its way into some media circles that people will read that otherwise didn't know about or had forgotten about the election. Some of them will vote.
Those people weren't waiting for Obama's endorsement to decide how they wanted to vote. Obama's endorsement instead helps ensure they find out that there's an election in the first place.
I heard that well known Ukrainian War podcaster, Jake Broe, a retired air-force captain and Wisconsin resident is taking a long hard look at WI 03. Broe has fundraised millions with a wide international audience for emergency vehicles for the Ukrainian military.
Yeah, this is the kind of district where the Republican's fundraising could consist of half a stick of gum and some pocket lint and said person would still be favored to win.
That said, the margin will be interesting. I'm hoping for single digits.
I thought that district is full of veterans. Aren’t they pissed that this administration is cutting VA funding? I would think some would cast protest votes and vote for the Democrat this time.
Brazil keeps showing Americans how the authorities and courts should deal with an insurrection or attempted coup attempt. Really depressing that the American judicial system, especially our corrupt SCOTUS, utterly failed to do so!
I think Brazil's democracy defenders know they have to move fast because Trump's CIA would do all it can to get Bolsonaro re-elected and/or have another coup there.
It's not really possible to do it on that scale without reverting the CIA to Cold War-era funding and resources. Best they can do is hack their computer systems.
I don't think that's likely to be their main concern, though it could be a factor. But Brazil's voters tend to vote out the incumbent government whenever they're dissatisfied with the economy, regardless of the stated ideology or previous record of the party they vote in. Kind of like fucking stupid U.S. voters.
Simon's summary paragraph is worth reading and remembering:
"While had a disappointing election in 2024, we cannot forget that we beat/outperformed MAGA in 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023 and in many critical states downballot in 2024. There is deep muscle memory of voting against MAGA extremists across the country; and as Trump’s job approval falls and his 2024 coalition unravels we must do everything we can now to get out of our defensive crouch and go on offense against these dangerous assholes."
He can't be on the ballot again, which seems to be the only thing that truly ignites his coalition.
It will be interesting to see what happens to the post-Trump GOP. It's clear that Trump, like most autocrats, has no interest in building a legacy that will survive his time in politics.
If the outcome wasn't so critical, that primary would also be entertaining.
So many republicans are going to trip over themselves to be the worst and dumbest possible Trump clone. In all likelihood none of them will be able to pull it off authentically and will end up clowning themselves.
Trumpism doesn't seem to be easily transferrable. (Think of all the Trump-endorsed candidates who have underperformed and/or lost their races, including the one who later became his VP.)
Exactly. Everyone that has tried to be Trump-without-Trump has failed. Maybe someone will succeed, but it doesn't strike me as all that likely. The next nationally successful republican will need to be their own thing.
On Hopium, I took the liberty of quoting your excellent comment last night to DB’s Breaking News thread – of course appropriately crediting "Mike in MD". I also wrote:
"If you’re interested in election news, it’s well worth subscribing to The DownBallot, founded by David Nir and Jeff Singer formerly of DailyKos Elections."
Last night's win of the PA state senate seat made me wonder: what states have the potential for us to gain a trifecta either this year or next year? We currently hold 15 trifectas.
Ones that jump to my mind are:
- Regain MN state house, lost in 2024.
- Regain MI state senate, lost in 2024.
- Pickup VA governor.
- Pickup AZ legislature — we need 4 pickups in the house, 3 in the senate. We've come close before under the current maps.
- Pickup VT governor — only on the table if Scott retires. He's been in office since 2016. Retiring after 10 years isn't crazy.
- Pickup NV governor — I have no idea what we should expect there, NV hasn't been encouraging as of late, but isn't a disaster either.
Two states I don't know about:
- Only half of the PA state senate is up: how does the map look for that, is a pickup there on the table?
- What about the WI legislature maps, are those viable pickups?
We're not far behind in numbers for either state but I don't know enough about the maps.
WI, PA, MI and AZ could (re) gain Democratic trifectas next year. PA has had fairer state legislative maps in place (as well as WI) and with the Muskrat running rampant, could be a bigger wave election in 2026 than expected. Virginia looks pretty good to gain another Dem trifecta this year if the GOP candidate is another MAGA fool like Youngkin.
If that happens with all four states, state Dems in those states need to go hard and fast. They need to enshrine the National Popular Vote Compact in their state law so that the compact is in place for 2028.
They should try and get independent redistricting commissions in PA and WI if they win a rare trifecta in those states. Really don’t wanna risk Republicans having full control again there in a redistricting year.
If WI maintains its progressive state Supreme Court makeup after Tuesday, the state legislative maps will stay fair. They're drawn to give both parties a 50/50 shot of reclaiming the state legislature. I pray that if Dems win a trifecta in WI and/or PA next year, they start the process of putting Roe and an independent redistricting committee amendment on the ballots. That way the future composition of the courts or legislature won't gerrymander future district drawing.
Good lord - we win a trifecta and your first order of business is to put in the National Popular Vote unilateral disarmament agreement? Seriously??? How about protecting the right to abortion? How about putting fair redistricting commissions in place?
I want them to do all that. But the only way to enshrine fair redistricting commissions (apart from state statute) is by constitutional amendment to make it extremely hard for a future state GOP trifecta to undo. In Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania an amendment has to pass in two separate state legislative sessions (unless PA can get 67% of legislators in one session) before it can be put to voters… which would be 2028 at the earliest.
But redistricting in 2030 is not going to be good for the blue wall. Whoever wins the presidency in 2032 has to win a Southern swing state or two. That’s why getting the NPVC with 270 in place before redistricting in 2030 is so important.
Sorry, help me understand how the NPVC is going to do anything to help us win the Presidency? Frankly, it's not even going to make presidential elections more fair. It is straight up unilateral disarmament and I do not understand why anyone would push for it and for damn sure not at the expense of infinitely more important things.
I would rate the NV-GOV race as Tilt GOP/Tossup until anything changes. Democrats could have a shot here but it depends on how Joe Lombardo will be able to hold on as Governor.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) may not know what hit him when midterms roll around.
Back in 2014 when first elected against the late Sen. Kay Hagan (D), he bitched about Obama golfing too much and signing certain executive orders. A reporter bringing all that back up again in comparison to what Trump's actions are today would be comedy gold. The Democratic nominee no matter who it is or DSCC should run ads repeatedly of those past statements and embarrass the hell out of him as well as bring up him voting with Trump 100% of the time like he bashed Hagan for voting with Obama with!! 💙🇺🇲
Former governor Roy Cooper has frozen the field for the Democratic primary for next year. We won't know whether he'll run for the seat until mid or late summer. But if he does -- it's going to get a LOT of outside dark money funding.
And unlike Cunningham or Beasley, Cooper is battle tested. He's popular with Ds, indies and squishy Rs so Tillis will have to WORK to keep his seat. But if Cooper runs, Tillis has a good chance of losing.
I strongly prefer Jeff Jackson run vs. Budd. He’s now won statewide and has strong fundraising skills. He’s also better liked in local circles (at least here in Charlotte)
It also helps to Roy Cooper’s advantage being a potential Senate candidate as he got elected twice as Governor when Trump was running for his first term and for his re-election campaign back in 2020.
New York and New York City never fail to disappoint.
You mean this: https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2025/3/26/cuomo-leads-nyc-mayors-race-with-39-mamdani-at-15-all-other-candidates-in-single-digits
Yes. Discussed in the digest.
Applying ranked choice here, Cuomo crosses 50% in the seventh round. By the tenth and final one, he defeats Mamdani 70-30 in a one-on-one.
It should be remembered that there's still time for things to change; had polling in March 2021 held up, then Mayor Andrew Yang would be running for reelection. But Cuomo is much stronger than Yang, and defeating him will probably require a quick coalescing around one serious opposition candidate, and I'm not at all sure if Mamdani is or should be it, at least from an electoral perspective.
Surely we can find an additional ten candidates who wish to become Mayor of NYC? Clearly there are not enough people in this race.
/s
Yeah, RCV in the city is a mess because ideologues rank only one or two people and leave the rest blank. Whose idea was it?
On another subject, will they resume the federal case on Eric Adams when he's out of office (they didn't dismiss with prejudice so as to keep a Sword of Damocles over him)? Goodness knows what they thought they could get out of him. All he can do is moan about how powerless he is to stop crime, migrants, etc.
It did not disappoint when it elected Fiorella LaGuardia mayor, Robert F. Kennedy and Herbert Lehman to the Senate, and Shirley Chisholm, Bella Abzug, Eliot Engel, Nita Lowey, Ritchie Torres, and AOC to the House.
You forgot FDR. How far back do you want to go? I’m referring to the two decades or so. And Ritchie Torres? Good grief. You might as well include Eric Adams while you’re at it.
And Eliot Engel was unceremoniously dumped in 2020 in favour of Jamaal Bowman, though that may not seem like such a great development in retrospect.
It was definitely NOT a great development....
Beware of Trumpian hyperboles. You said "never" fail to disappoint. You don't have to go very far back to find several meritorious members of Congress from New York. And, no, I do not credit Eric Adams, Anthony Weiner, or George Santos.
Oh no, the rhetoric police are here. Quick, cushion any kind of exaggeration or turn of phrase, lest you get caught and get called Trumpian!
I thought this was a space for clear thinking and honest writing.
Is it dishonest writing if we don't include every example against a wider trend? Is it hyperbolic of me to say "Trump is racist" because I'm not accounting for every time he displayed respect for someone of color?
Paleo was commenting on the wider trend of recent NYC/NY Democratic politics and their frustration with it. To come in and scold them by saying "beware of Trumpian hyperboles" just makes you look like a jackass tbh.
On the other hand, tone policing while calling yourself Diogenes is a very funny bit
What you call "tone policing" is asking for accuracy.
Wish fulfillment
Agreed on Torres. We could go back to Teddy Roosevelt. But New York City has elected a lot of deeply flawed mayors in my lifetime.
I’m curious, what is your objection to Ritchie Torres? I know he’s a staunch Israel supporter, and some people react very negatively to that.
He's generally to the right of what you'd expect from his district. Pro cryptocurrency, very pro police, goes with republicans on the latest anti-immigrant bills. There's enough to dislike about him without going into the banned topic.
Also there's some flip-flops on those issues for him too. Many people might not like someone voting with republicans on the Laken Riley act, but will accept it from politicians who are consistent. But someone who votes against the bill and then later votes for it is going to annoy people more. Comes across as having no true ideological core.
I doubt he'd raise much ire if he represented a D+5 seat or some such, but he represents a D+35 district, which is in a three way tie for 9th bluest district in the country. AOC's seat, for reference, is D+28. The entire state of Vermont is D+16 and Massachusetts D+15. This is a hyper-blue seat that should have a consistent progressive with good messaging skills in it.
Thank you.
Adams-Cuomo at 46% combined in the first round. If the opposition was united and focused on hammering Cuomo's obvious liabilities I think an Anti-Adams-Cuomo coalition could win but looks like NYC is going to have scandal plagued mayors through the rest of the decade.
We have a candidate for Governor of Maine! https://wgme.com/news/local/shenna-bellows-announces-run-for-maine-governor-president-donald-trump-ballot-case-election-democrats
Had some trouble with your link. Here’s that news on Maine’s NPR:
https://www.mainepublic.org/politics/2025-03-26/secretary-of-state-shenna-bellows-announces-campaign-for-maine-governor
I like Bellows, would be great to see her become governor. Not sure how she'll fare in a contested primary, but at least with what I know she's the candidate I like the most.
Some people might hold her 2014 defeat to Collins against her, but considering how the year turned out and that she was very new to politics at the time I don't see it as a mark against her.
Collins herself flopped in her first bid for elected office, that being a three way race for governor in 1994, in which Angus King came out on top. Two years later she ran an improved campaign to replace Sen. William Cohen, for whom she had worked.
He was so much better than her, a true moderate!
I didn’t hold her 2014 loss against her. I held it against all the commenters who talked her up tbh. Which, I can be rigid about races that look hopeless but I look too hard the numbers, which is how losing becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Actually, I’m rooting for her even more bc of that loss. She went for it when few wanted to. That is one of my top qualities for candidates - they’re not afraid to go big when going home is almost guaranteed. Means they’re running for all the right reasons.
Well said. If we’re serious about a 50-state strategy, it means NEVER leaving any race unchallenged – and that means having candidates who are willing to run and fight their darnedest against every hard odds.
Would be nice to have a candidate for senate.
Maybe Bellows entering might make Troy Jackson look at the Senate race as well.
Bellows did challenge Susan Collins in her Senate race back in 2014 but that was a lost cause as Collins back then didn’t have the vulnerabilities as an incumbent.
Bellows I think will have it easier in the gubernatorial race as she won’t have Collins as a GOP challenger to deal with.
I'm curious who will be the ME Senate challenger to Collins. Crossing my fingers for outgoing governor Janet Mills.
Mills should paint herself as a fighter (which she is), while smearing Collins as an enabler of Elon Musk and FDJT's disastrous agenda (also true).
I do think Janet Mills would be a strong candidate against Susan Collins. Although I wish she was younger, Mills has at least one good Senate term in her.
Any polling of this match-up?
Thankfully should Mills run and defeat Collins in 2026, she'll be up in a Presidential Election year next time, making it easier for us to put up a candidate that year.
Troy Jackson would be perfect. But he apparently has his sights on the governorship.
Where is Mills from? It will be important for any Democratic candidate not to be from or associated with Portland. Someone from the 2nd Congressional District would be very desirable, I think especially someone from a city like Bangor or some small town or rural area that's not a coastal resort.
She has deep roots in Farmington (in the 2nd District).
Farmington is at the heart of Franklin County, which is part of Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. Although there are Blue spots in ME-02, the district is quite Red. It’s currently represented by Jared Golden, but Trump won here.
Janet Mills has broad credibility and is definitely not seen as part of some coastal elite.
I don't believe being from Portland is a big issue in Maine. Candidates just need to appear authentic. Which is true regardless of where their home is.
Something like 40% of the state lives in the Portland metro area. Angus King lives in Brunswick, which is in the metro area and about 30 minutes from Portland proper.
The thing is, Portland is the Democratic base, so if you want to appeal to swing voters, it would presumably be beneficial not to be too closely associated with Portland. King has the cachet of being an independent, which sets him apart.
Last year, before the election, I was on a group call with Angus King. I asked him whether he supported getting rid of the filibuster, at least for voting rights and abortion. He was against, but impressed me with a very thoughtful answer why he had moved from Yes to No.
I like the guy. Totally real.
I agree that he's real, but I don't get how you'd be impressed with a thoughtful answer on why undemocratic means should be usable in the Senate to sustain forced birth and discrimination against voters, if I understand you correctly.
People can appeal to swing voters regardless of where they are from. This isn't like NY where everyone outside of NYC hates NYC and erroneously thinks they are funding the city when it's actually the other way around. Portland is just Portland.
It's also not like ideological extremes are inherently disqualifying in Maine, as we can see by LePage being elected. Certainly we'd have better odds if we had a bog-standard democrat, and even better than that with a moderate one, but that doesn't mean the candidate has to come from outside Portland.
And there's also value in keeping your base on board. I think regional factors will largely be a wash in this type of state.
Your remarks about a lack of regional animosity are noted though different from what some other folks have stated on these boards before, but the fact that a Republican extremist was able to win twice is no kind of evidence that really leftist Democrats can win state-wide.
FL-6 poll from
@StPetePolls
Fine (R) - 48.3%
Weil (D) - 44.2%
other - 2%
Already voted
Fine (R) - 43.1%
Weil (D) - 51%
other - 1.3%
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/728263-poll-shows-cd-6-special-election-within-margin-of-error/
I particularly like this bit:
"… among those polled who said they already voted, more than half supported the Democrat. Weil leads 51% to 43% among those whose decision has already been made via a mail-in ballot or in-person early voting. According to the survey, about 38% of likely voters have already cast their ballots in the race."
EDIT: I do hope there is a strong Democratic stealth GOTV operation right now!
Dems would be doing well to keep this under 20.
I'll bet you a double scoop of chocolate ice cream it will be under 10! :-)
I’ll bet both of you the crafts beer of your choice we’ll keep this under 6.5.
R+14 red district. Wow!
Obama endorsed Crawford in the WI Supreme Court race: https://bsky.app/profile/barackobama.bsky.social/post/3lla32k4mts2l
The cell of people waiting for Obama's endorsement to decide whether to vote in this race is empty.
It's still amazing to have national figures weighing in on a state Supreme Court race.
I've been following WI-SC elections since 2011 (the Prosser vs. Kloppenburg heartbreaker), and they used to be completely under the radar.
Naturally, with Obama not being able to get Merrick Garland confirmed as Supreme Court Justice it makes sense for him to lend his endorsement and influence to a race like this.
Probably.
Endorsements like this are more useful for keeping the race on people's minds and increasing engagement and all that. Headlines of Obama's endorsement will make its way into some media circles that people will read that otherwise didn't know about or had forgotten about the election. Some of them will vote.
Those people weren't waiting for Obama's endorsement to decide how they wanted to vote. Obama's endorsement instead helps ensure they find out that there's an election in the first place.
I heard that well known Ukrainian War podcaster, Jake Broe, a retired air-force captain and Wisconsin resident is taking a long hard look at WI 03. Broe has fundraised millions with a wide international audience for emergency vehicles for the Ukrainian military.
Cooke is running there and did a nice job last cycle.
Yeah, I'd rather she run and Broe continue the great work he's doing.
He's a great social media follow. I would hate to see a bare-knuckled primary fight between him and Rebecca Cooke, though.
I’m surprised that Musk hasn’t donated money to Fine’s campaign to make his coffers match or exceed Weil’s.
It would take a lot more than what's happened for Fine to lose a district like that.
Yeah, this is the kind of district where the Republican's fundraising could consist of half a stick of gum and some pocket lint and said person would still be favored to win.
That said, the margin will be interesting. I'm hoping for single digits.
I thought that district is full of veterans. Aren’t they pissed that this administration is cutting VA funding? I would think some would cast protest votes and vote for the Democrat this time.
If they aren’t already pissed, Democrats better be in a hurry to make them pissed!
With the election next week, it’d be hard to set-up a PAC and gets ads on tv in time for it to matter.
Bolsonaro must stand trial over alleged coup attempt, Brazil’s top court rules.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/26/bolsonaro-trial-coup-brazil-supreme-court
Brazil keeps showing Americans how the authorities and courts should deal with an insurrection or attempted coup attempt. Really depressing that the American judicial system, especially our corrupt SCOTUS, utterly failed to do so!
I think Brazil's democracy defenders know they have to move fast because Trump's CIA would do all it can to get Bolsonaro re-elected and/or have another coup there.
I really don't want the South American coup era to return. We don't need more Pinochets/Videlas/Stroessners.
It's not really possible to do it on that scale without reverting the CIA to Cold War-era funding and resources. Best they can do is hack their computer systems.
Not our proudest foreign policy era, amirite?
No it wasn't, but the Cold War was a bad time all around.
I don't think that's likely to be their main concern, though it could be a factor. But Brazil's voters tend to vote out the incumbent government whenever they're dissatisfied with the economy, regardless of the stated ideology or previous record of the party they vote in. Kind of like fucking stupid U.S. voters.
Bolsonaro has been barred from running in the 2026 presidential election
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-66070923
PA State Sen: Simon Rosenberg's write up credits "our friends at the Downballot" in his writeup of "our encouraging win".
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/the-atlantic-exposes-the-lies-of
Simon's summary paragraph is worth reading and remembering:
"While had a disappointing election in 2024, we cannot forget that we beat/outperformed MAGA in 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023 and in many critical states downballot in 2024. There is deep muscle memory of voting against MAGA extremists across the country; and as Trump’s job approval falls and his 2024 coalition unravels we must do everything we can now to get out of our defensive crouch and go on offense against these dangerous assholes."
that is assuming trump's job approval continues to fall and his 2024 coalition unravels...after 2024 maybe we should not assume this will happen
He can't be on the ballot again, which seems to be the only thing that truly ignites his coalition.
It will be interesting to see what happens to the post-Trump GOP. It's clear that Trump, like most autocrats, has no interest in building a legacy that will survive his time in politics.
The 2028 GOP Pres primary to fill the vacuum is going to be so ugly. 😁
If the outcome wasn't so critical, that primary would also be entertaining.
So many republicans are going to trip over themselves to be the worst and dumbest possible Trump clone. In all likelihood none of them will be able to pull it off authentically and will end up clowning themselves.
Trumpism doesn't seem to be easily transferrable. (Think of all the Trump-endorsed candidates who have underperformed and/or lost their races, including the one who later became his VP.)
Exactly. Everyone that has tried to be Trump-without-Trump has failed. Maybe someone will succeed, but it doesn't strike me as all that likely. The next nationally successful republican will need to be their own thing.
On Hopium, I took the liberty of quoting your excellent comment last night to DB’s Breaking News thread – of course appropriately crediting "Mike in MD". I also wrote:
"If you’re interested in election news, it’s well worth subscribing to The DownBallot, founded by David Nir and Jeff Singer formerly of DailyKos Elections."
Last night's win of the PA state senate seat made me wonder: what states have the potential for us to gain a trifecta either this year or next year? We currently hold 15 trifectas.
Ones that jump to my mind are:
- Regain MN state house, lost in 2024.
- Regain MI state senate, lost in 2024.
- Pickup VA governor.
- Pickup AZ legislature — we need 4 pickups in the house, 3 in the senate. We've come close before under the current maps.
- Pickup VT governor — only on the table if Scott retires. He's been in office since 2016. Retiring after 10 years isn't crazy.
- Pickup NV governor — I have no idea what we should expect there, NV hasn't been encouraging as of late, but isn't a disaster either.
Two states I don't know about:
- Only half of the PA state senate is up: how does the map look for that, is a pickup there on the table?
- What about the WI legislature maps, are those viable pickups?
We're not far behind in numbers for either state but I don't know enough about the maps.
Thoughts, ideas, corrections?
WI, PA, MI and AZ could (re) gain Democratic trifectas next year. PA has had fairer state legislative maps in place (as well as WI) and with the Muskrat running rampant, could be a bigger wave election in 2026 than expected. Virginia looks pretty good to gain another Dem trifecta this year if the GOP candidate is another MAGA fool like Youngkin.
If that happens with all four states, state Dems in those states need to go hard and fast. They need to enshrine the National Popular Vote Compact in their state law so that the compact is in place for 2028.
They should try and get independent redistricting commissions in PA and WI if they win a rare trifecta in those states. Really don’t wanna risk Republicans having full control again there in a redistricting year.
If WI maintains its progressive state Supreme Court makeup after Tuesday, the state legislative maps will stay fair. They're drawn to give both parties a 50/50 shot of reclaiming the state legislature. I pray that if Dems win a trifecta in WI and/or PA next year, they start the process of putting Roe and an independent redistricting committee amendment on the ballots. That way the future composition of the courts or legislature won't gerrymander future district drawing.
From your lips to God’s ears. Not having to worry about Republican gerrymanders again in these states is something we really need.
Good lord - we win a trifecta and your first order of business is to put in the National Popular Vote unilateral disarmament agreement? Seriously??? How about protecting the right to abortion? How about putting fair redistricting commissions in place?
I want them to do all that. But the only way to enshrine fair redistricting commissions (apart from state statute) is by constitutional amendment to make it extremely hard for a future state GOP trifecta to undo. In Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania an amendment has to pass in two separate state legislative sessions (unless PA can get 67% of legislators in one session) before it can be put to voters… which would be 2028 at the earliest.
But redistricting in 2030 is not going to be good for the blue wall. Whoever wins the presidency in 2032 has to win a Southern swing state or two. That’s why getting the NPVC with 270 in place before redistricting in 2030 is so important.
Sorry, help me understand how the NPVC is going to do anything to help us win the Presidency? Frankly, it's not even going to make presidential elections more fair. It is straight up unilateral disarmament and I do not understand why anyone would push for it and for damn sure not at the expense of infinitely more important things.
I would rate the NV-GOV race as Tilt GOP/Tossup until anything changes. Democrats could have a shot here but it depends on how Joe Lombardo will be able to hold on as Governor.
That said, Lombardo is no Brian Sandoval.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) may not know what hit him when midterms roll around.
Back in 2014 when first elected against the late Sen. Kay Hagan (D), he bitched about Obama golfing too much and signing certain executive orders. A reporter bringing all that back up again in comparison to what Trump's actions are today would be comedy gold. The Democratic nominee no matter who it is or DSCC should run ads repeatedly of those past statements and embarrass the hell out of him as well as bring up him voting with Trump 100% of the time like he bashed Hagan for voting with Obama with!! 💙🇺🇲
Former governor Roy Cooper has frozen the field for the Democratic primary for next year. We won't know whether he'll run for the seat until mid or late summer. But if he does -- it's going to get a LOT of outside dark money funding.
And unlike Cunningham or Beasley, Cooper is battle tested. He's popular with Ds, indies and squishy Rs so Tillis will have to WORK to keep his seat. But if Cooper runs, Tillis has a good chance of losing.
Has Nickel shown any indication if he'd jump in with or without Cooper? He seemed all but certain to run up until recently.
He has opened an exploratory committee for 2026, but if Cooper decides to run for Tillis’ seat, Nickel will endorse him.
I want Nickel to run against Budd in 2028.
I strongly prefer Jeff Jackson run vs. Budd. He’s now won statewide and has strong fundraising skills. He’s also better liked in local circles (at least here in Charlotte)
Seems like Jeff Jackson is following the route to becoming the next governor in NC which is the AG roll like his predecessor have done
That's what I'm thinking. If 2028 is 2008 2.0 Democrats may sweep all NC major statewide offices, including other Senate seat. 💙🙏
A 2nd term as AG if he wants it starts out at Likely D.
It also helps to Roy Cooper’s advantage being a potential Senate candidate as he got elected twice as Governor when Trump was running for his first term and for his re-election campaign back in 2020.