Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, who'd been eyeing a bid for Maine's open governorship, kicked off her campaign on Wednesday, making her the first major candidate from either party to join the race.
The campaign will be Bellows' second run for statewide office; her first attempt came in 2014, when she lost to Republican Sen. Susan Collins in a 68-31 landslide. But Bellows bounced back from that drubbing two years later by flipping a GOP-held seat in the state Senate, winning a competitive three-way race even as Donald Trump was carrying the district.
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Shortly after securing a third term in 2020, Bellows' fellow lawmakers chose her as secretary of state, making her the first woman to hold the post. (In Maine, legislators in both houses hold a joint vote to elect the position.)
As Maine's chief elections administrator, Bellows made national news late in 2023 when she ruled that Trump was not eligible for the ballot under the 14th Amendment because he had engaged in insurrection against the United States. However, the Supreme Court ultimately ruled that state officials did not have the power to enforce the amendment, requiring Bellows to reinstate Trump.
Bellows is all but certain to be joined in the primary by other major pols who are similarly eager to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Janet Mills. The roster of potential names includes former state Senate President Troy Jackson, who recently set up an exploratory committee, as well as Rep. Jared Golden, state House Speaker Ryan Fecteau, and former Speaker Hannah Pingree.
Republicans have yet to land a candidate, though the Portland Press Herald mentions several possibilities: former Rep. Bruce Poliquin, state Senate Minority Leader Trey Stewart, former state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason, state Sen. Rick Bennett, state Rep. Laurel Libby, and former health care executive Jonathan Bush, the brother of TV host Billy Bush (infamous for Trump's "Grab 'em by the pussy" interview).
Maine also has a long tradition of notable third-party contenders running for governor, though none have yet emerged. The Press Herald suggests that Army veteran Travis Mills could run as an independent, but last month, Mills apparently rejected the idea. (He does not appear to be related to the governor.)
Both primaries will, if necessary, be decided by ranked-choice voting should one candidate fail to win a majority of votes in the first round. However, winners need only a plurality to prevail in the general election—something that happened nine times in the 11 races held between 1974 and 2014. (Janet Mills won a majority both times.)
Confusingly, though, the state uses ranked-choice voting to resolve general elections for federal races. The reason for this difference stems from a 2017 opinion issued by the state Supreme Court, which said that a ballot initiative voters implemented to pass this new system the previous year violated the state constitution, but only regarding general elections, and only those for state office.
If you believe in democracy—and we know you do, because you’re a reader of this newsletter—then you know that the most meaningful way you can stem the rising tide of autocracy is at the ballot box. Every day, The Downballot gives you the information you need to be the most effective warrior possible. Please consider supporting our mission by becoming a paid subscriber today.
The crazy flips just keep on coming! On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard drill down into James Malone's astonishing victory in Tuesday's special election in Pennsylvania—one that saw him capture a seat Democrats had never held. They also preview next week's races in Florida, where Republicans are suddenly sweating another special election, and, of course, Wisconsin, which will hold a long-awaited election that will determine control of the state Supreme Court.
The Davids also delve into the world of digital advertising with Mark Jablonowski, an Obama veteran and the president of DSPolitical. Jablonowski reveals the inner workings of online ads, which have become an increasingly important part of every modern campaign. He specifically explains how even the smallest campaigns he works with can target voters in sophisticated ways to urge them to the polls—a roster that includes none other than James Malone.
The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!
Senate
TX-Sen
Former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, who lost to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz last year by a 53-45 margin, now says he's "seriously considering" another Senate bid in 2026.
Allred offered those remarks to the Dallas Morning News' Gromer Jeffers on Tuesday evening but did not elaborate further about his plans or a timetable. Jeffers notes that Allred has also been named a potential candidate for mayor of Dallas in 2027, a possibility he says the ex-congressman "shrugged off" but "didn't rule out."
Whether or not Allred runs, the biggest question looming over the race for both parties is whether Sen. John Cornyn will be the GOP's nominee. The 73-year-old Cornyn released a campaign kickoff video on Wednesday morning that may be aimed at quashing rumors that he might retire—rumors that have persisted despite his repeated insistence that he's running again.
But even if he does forge ahead, he'll almost certainly have to face down one or more opponents in next year's primary first. Cornyn's likeliest rival for quite some time has been state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who responded to the senator's launch announcement by tweeting, "Texans won't believe your lies or forget how you've consistently worked to undermine the President."
Paxton, however, has not yet joined the contest, and he keeps pushing out his timetable for making a decision. In late December, he indicated he'd have more to say in a "couple of months," while last week, he told Punchbowl News that he'd make up his mind in … a "couple of months."
There's also the matter of Rep. Wesley Hunt, who recently expressed interest in joining the race as well. A group called Standing for Texas will reportedly begin a "seven-figure" buy this week to air positive ads across the state touting Hunt's military background and, of course, his fealty to Trump, according to the Texas Tribune.
This sort of effort is aimed at boosting Hunt's name recognition ahead of a possible campaign, though the congressman also has yet to say whether he'll run.
Governors
NM-Gov
Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman, who's reportedly been considering a bid for New Mexico's open governorship, is promising a "big announcement" for April 10 that certainly sounds like he'll be kicking off a campaign.
Bregman would join a Democratic primary that's been dominated by former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, who's been hoovering up high-profile endorsements since launching last month. Last year, he handily won a four-year term to his current post after getting appointed to the job by term-limited Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham in 2023.
Bregman is also the father of infielder Alex Bregman, who recently resolved questions about his own future by signing a $120 million free agent contract with the Red Sox last month.
PA-Gov
Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity, who in December did not rule out running against Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, now confirms to DV Journal that a gubernatorial bid "is something I'm interested in." Garrity, a Republican who won a second term last fall, previewed the sort of message she might run on by telling the site, "Pennsylvania was doing DOGE before DOGE was cool."
If you believe in democracy—and we know you do, because you’re a reader of this newsletter—then you know that the most meaningful way you can stem the rising tide of autocracy is at the ballot box. Every day, The Downballot gives you the information you need to be the most effective warrior possible. Please consider supporting our mission by becoming a paid subscriber today.
Republican Randy Fine leads Democrat Josh Weil by just a 48-44 margin ahead of Tuesday's special election in Florida's deep-red 6th Congressional District, according to new data from St. Pete Polls.
The survey, which is the first and likely only public poll of the race, also finds Donald Trump with a 51-45 approval rating, despite carrying the district by a 65-35 spread last year. Though his odds remain long, Weil has outraised Fine by a gigantic margin, and Republicans recently revived a tradition of preemptively trashing their special election nominee—something they last regularly did during the early years of Trump's first term.
New - Wisconsin supreme Court poll
🔵 Crawford 50% (+8)
🔴 Schmiel 42%
Socal #B - 500 LV - 3/26
And there it goes. No NY special https://x.com/haleytalbotcnn/status/1905318734262108294