New York Rep. Elise Stefanik (credit: Elise Stefanik Facebook)
Leading Off
NY-21
Donald Trump withdrew Rep. Elise Stefanik's nomination to serve as UN ambassador on Thursday, a stunning reversal that came amid escalating Republican worries about their ability to win special elections in red districts.
Trump himself acknowledged those worries in a social media post announcing the move.
"With a very tight Majority," he wrote, "I don't want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise's seat."
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Senate Republicans had already delayed Stefanik's nomination due to that very narrow House majority Trump referenced. At the moment, Republicans have just a 218-213 advantage, with two seats belonging to each party currently vacant. As a consequence, the GOP can afford no more than two defections on any roll call.
But the risk of losing votes on the House floor was only one issue. The risk of losing seats was—and continues to be—quite another. That fear was most starkly illuminated just two days earlier, when small-town Pennsylvania mayor James Andrew Malone stunned the political world by flipping a deep-red legislative district that had never previously elected a Democrat.
Republicans have also been fretting over a special election in another conservative constituency in Florida coming up on Tuesday, going so far as to preemptively blame their candidate, state Sen. Randy Fine, before any votes have been counted.
While an upset remains unlikely, Republicans have good reason to sweat: In 14 special elections across the country tracked by The Downballot this year, Democrats are performing an average of 10 points better than they did at the top of the ticket in 2024. The last time we saw a comparable overperformance was in the 2017-18 cycle, which concluded with Democrats taking back the House.
Like these other ruby-red seats, Stefanik's rural 21st District, which went for Trump by about 20 points last year, should not have been in jeopardy. But local Republicans dithered in picking a replacement candidate while Democrats long ago rallied around dairy farmer Blake Gendebien, who said earlier this month that he'd already raised $2.5 million for his campaign.
Another threat also loomed: One candidate seeking the GOP nomination, wealthy sticker magnate Anthony Constantino, threatened to wage a third-party bid if Republicans tapped state Sen. Dan Stec as their nominee. Stec had recently secured the endorsement of the Conservative Party, but Constantino savaged him as an "anti-Trump" candidate and "a friend of the far left Teachers' Unions."
Republicans have now foreclosed the possibility of losing Stefanik's seat, but it's a humiliating climbdown for a once up-and-coming member of Congress.
Stefanik had risen to the third-ranking spot in the House GOP, replacing Liz Cheney as conference chair in 2019 after Cheney became persona non grata among Republicans for opposing Trump.
But in anticipation of her elevation to Trump's cabinet, Stefanik gave up her leadership post, which went to Michigan Rep. Lisa McClain. She also shed most of her staff and didn't receive any important committee assignments. Instead, she went on a "farewell tour" of her district.
Speaker Mike Johnson, though, promised that he would invite Stefanik "to return to the leadership table immediately." However, it's not clear what such a role might look like, since Johnson will likely have to slap together a brand-new position: McClain, reports the Wall Street Journal's Olivia Beavers, will not step aside.
As for Gendebien, he slammed Trump's U-turn, saying Republicans needed Stefanik's vote "to cut Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, VA benefits, and rural education in order to give billions of dollars in handouts to the ultra-wealthy." However, he indicated he'd forge ahead with his campaign, saying he was "committed to representing the community that raised me, regardless of when that election is."
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Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, who's been publicly considering a campaign for New Hampshire's open Senate seat, will announce a bid next month, reports Axios. So far, no major candidates have entered the race, though Pappas' House colleague, Rep. Maggie Goodlander, could also join the Democratic primary.
Governors
SC-Gov
State Attorney General Alan Wilson holds a 21-16 lead on Rep. Nancy Mace in a hypothetical GOP primary matchup ahead of next year's race for South Carolina's open governorship, according to a new poll, though nearly half of all voters have yet to make up their minds.
The survey, from Republican pollster First Tuesday Strategies, also finds Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette taking 7% of the vote, Rep. Ralph Norman at 6%, and a pair of state senators, Sean Bennett and Josh Kimbrell, with less than 2% of the vote apiece. By far the largest group, though, is undecided voters, who make up 47% of all respondents.
According to the conservative site FITSNews, First Tuesday is "unaffiliated with any candidate in the 2026 race." At the moment, none of these candidates are actually running—everyone tested is still in a preparatory phase of one sort or another.
While Wilson and Mace seem likely to go for it, Norman has waffled and continues to do so. In new comments to the South Carolina Journal this week, the far-right congressman offered the oddly specific figure of "65%" to describe his likelihood of seeking the governorship.
VA-Gov
Two hard-right Virginia Republicans hoping to deny Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears the GOP nomination in this year's race for governor are struggling to make the ballot, reports the National Journal's Mary Frances McGowan.
The problem faced by both former state Sen. Amanda Chase and former Del. Dave LaRock will come as no surprise to readers of The Downballot. When the pair belatedly launched campaigns with just over a month before the April 3 candidate filing deadline, we noted that they faced a major hurdle: gathering 10,000 valid voter signatures, including 400 from each of the state's 11 congressional districts.
McGowan now sheds light on how acute the issue has become. While Earle-Sears submitted almost 20,000 signatures weeks ago, Chase told McGowan with just a week to go that her campaign was "about halfway there" and "still need[s] thousands of signatures," including "some congressional districts where we need to collect the necessary 400." LaRock said he's also still gathering signatures.
While it's still possible that one or both insurgents could join Earle-Sears in the primary, it looks like the Democratic nomination will be uncontested. While 77-year-old Rep. Bobby Scott never ruled out a bid, he sounded very unlikely to launch one late last month and doesn't appear to have taken steps toward qualifying for the ballot.
Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, by contrast, turned in more than 40,000 signatures on the first day candidates could submit them earlier this month.
House
AZ-07
Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes announced on Wednesday that he would not run in the upcoming special election for the seat in Congress previously held by the late Rep. Raul Grijalva. Candidates have until April 14 to file for the race for Arizona's solidly blue 7th District, which will be held on Sept. 23, with a primary on July 15.
CA-09, CA-45, OH-13
Unnamed GOP strategist "hope" that two House candidates who lost races last year in California will try again, including former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln and former Rep. Michelle Steel, reports Roll Call's Daniela Altimari.
Lincoln lost 52-48 to Democratic Rep. Josh Harder in the Stockton-area 9th District, while Steel was unseated by Democrat Derek Tran just 50.1 to 49.9 in the 45th District in Orange County. Neither has said anything publicly, but Steel filed paperwork to create a new campaign committee moments after Tran declared victory in December.
Also on Altimari's list is former Ohio state Sen. Kevin Coughlin, who lost a bid for the Akron-area 13th District to Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes last fall. Coughlin likewise hasn't commented, but one media report in January said he was "likely" to run a second time.
FL-07, FL-Sen
The House Ethics Committee released a report on Thursday saying that Republican Rep. Cory Mills may have illegally entered into contracts with the federal government, receiving almost $1 million for providing weapons to prisons through a firm he owns.
In December, the committee said it was investigating Mills but did not reveal any details at the time. Both federal law and House rules broadly prohibit members of Congress from contracting with the federal government to prevent conflicts of interest. The report, produced by the Office of Congressional Conduct, said that Mills has refused to cooperate with the investigation.
Mills, who ran ads during his first bid for the House in 2022 bragging that he had sold tear gas used on "radical left protesters," has suggested he might challenge newly appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in next year's primary. He is also under investigation by police in Washington, D.C., for allegedly assaulting a 27-year-old woman at his home.
GA-06
Democratic state Sen. Sonya Halpern, who recently filed paperwork with the FEC ahead of a possible bid for Georgia's 6th Congressional District, tells the Atlanta Journal Constitution that she'll only run if Rep. Lucy McBath does not. McBath is likely to seek the Democratic nod for governor next year but has yet to launch a campaign.
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Politico's Adam Wren flags that former state Rep. Chuck Goodrich, who came up just short in last year's GOP primary against Rep. Victoria Spartz, sponsored a local Chamber of Commerce event this week under the logo "Goodrich for Congress."
Goodrich doesn't appear to have said anything publicly about a second bid, but Spartz's 39-33 win was exceptionally weak for an incumbent. Her poor showing was not a surprise, though: The notoriously erratic congresswoman said she'd retire early in 2023, prompting candidates like Goodrich to enter. But a year later, Spartz reversed herself just before the filing deadline—an about-face that engendered a great deal of anger among fellow Republicans.
TX-18
Three weeks after Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner's unexpected death, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has yet to call a special election, despite moving much more quickly following the deaths of other members of Congress in recent years.
Abbott is likely delaying in order to prevent Democrats from filling Turner's safely blue 18th District, which would shrink the GOP's narrow majority in the House even further. This sort of anti-democratic maneuver has been a hallmark of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and Texas law gives Abbott wide latitude over when to call an election.
But until now, he generally hadn't abused the process to leave Texans without representation. As the Texas Tribune's Kayla Guo notes, Abbott waited only two weeks to schedule an election to replace Republican Rep. Ron Wright after he died in 2021 and just 17 days to do so following the death last year of Turner's predecessor, Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee.
Democrats have forced DeSantis to act in the past by filing lawsuits or threatening to take legal action. It's not clear, though, whether anyone plans to bring a similar challenge against Abbott, or what the likelihood of success might be. Last week, a spokesperson for the governor would say only that an announcement regarding a special election would "be made at a later date."
Other Races
WI Spring Elections
Education consultant Brittany Kinser, the conservative candidate in Tuesday's race to serve as Wisconsin's public schools chief, has outraised Democratic incumbent Jill Underly $2.4 million to $1.3 million, according to new campaign finance reports.
The key reason, explains the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Kelly Meyerhofer, is the involvement of the state GOP, which all but ignored Underly's opponent four years ago. This time, though, it's given $1.9 million to Kinser's campaign, while the state Democratic Party has contributed $1 million to Underly's cause.
While the contest is officially nonpartisan, Underly has always identified as a Democrat … and so has Kinser, at least at times.
As Meyerhofer notes, mailers from some Kinder allies have referred to her as a Democrat, even though she's "declined to say" what her party affiliation was in the past. At the same time, she's also campaigned with former Republican state Attorney General Brad Schimel, who's running in the contest for the state Supreme Court being held the same day.
Whatever label Kinser does or does not adopt, though, conservatives have long fared poorly in races for schools superintendent, and last month's top-two primary did not offer much succor: Underly and another liberal candidate combined for 65% of the vote while Kinser took 35%.
Greenland Government Formation: On the eve of Vance's visit, Greenland has announced a new unity government that includes all parties except Naleraq. Naleraq is the most aggressively nationalist and most pro-Trump of the political parties. It's not surprising that they weren't willing to play in the sandbox with others. The government will include four parties which are far-left, socialist, classically liberal, and conservative respectively.
Glad Pappas is jumping into the Senate race, I think he'd make a strong candidate and great senator.
Greenland Government Formation: On the eve of Vance's visit, Greenland has announced a new unity government that includes all parties except Naleraq. Naleraq is the most aggressively nationalist and most pro-Trump of the political parties. It's not surprising that they weren't willing to play in the sandbox with others. The government will include four parties which are far-left, socialist, classically liberal, and conservative respectively.