While Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin will only say he'll decide whether to seek a sixth term "[s]oon," Politico's Shia Kapos reports that party insiders anticipate he'll make his plans known in less than a month.
Kapos' sources believe an announcement will come before the Cook County Democratic Party begins its "pre-slating" activities on April 16, an event that will help the organization decide which candidate to back ahead of next year's primary.
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The other two members of this group whose seats are up in 2026, Michigan's Gary Peters and New Hampshire's Jeanne Shaheen, had already announced that they won't run again, and Durbin's vote only intensified talk that he'll join them. Several prominent Democrats have been eyeing what they anticipate will be an open race, though they're all holding off on announcing anything as Durbin publicly mulls his plans.
Much of the chatter has centered around four names: Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Reps. Robin Kelly, Raja Krishnamoorthi, and Lauren Underwood.
Kapos and fellow Politico reporter Ally Mutnick wrote last month that Stratton and her team have said privately that she not only believes that Gov. J.B. Pritzker will support her planned campaign, but that she thinks the billionaire will spend to help her. Durbin himself said of Stratton, "She said if I run she's not going to." The lieutenant governor has been more reticent in public, telling the Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet in January, "I am keeping my options open as to how I can be most impactful."
Kelly, Krishnamoorthi, and Underwood, likewise, have all been "strategizing or lining up teams" as they await Durbin's retirement, Kapos writes. NOTUS' Helen Huiskes asked all three representatives about their interest in seeking an open seat back in January, though only Kelly acknowledged she would "look at it." Krishnamoorthi, by contrast, responded, "There's no vacancy, so I can't really speculate," while Underwood did not comment.
Other Democrats have also been talked about as potential candidates. Kapos wrote this week that state Sen. Robert Peters is now getting mentioned as a possibility, though he does not appear to have said anything about his plans. State Treasurer Michael Frerichs also didn't rule out running when Huiskes asked him earlier this year, though we haven't heard anything about his interest in the ensuing time.
Huiskes' sources further said that Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias, who lost the 2010 race for Illinois' other Senate seat to Republican Mark Kirk, was a potential contender, but he's declined to say anything more. Giannoulias, like Frerichs, is up for reelection next year and has also been touted as a potential 2027 candidate for mayor of Chicago.
One person who will not be running, though, is Rep. Delia Ramirez. While Ramirez told Huiskes in January that she hadn't ruled anything out, she informed Kapos this week that she was not interested in a Senate bid. The other 10 Democrats in Illinois' House delegation previously let Huiskes know that they wouldn't run.
Finally, while some insiders speculated to Huiskes that former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel could seek this Senate seat, he appears to have a different office in mind: The one-time chief of staff to Barack Obama was recently the subject of a Politico profile titled, "Rahm Emanuel Is Gearing Up to Run for President."
There has been considerably less talk about which Republicans could run in a state that Kamala Harris carried 54-43 last year. Rep. Darin LaHood didn't dismiss talk he could run when Huiskes asked him back in January, though he acknowledged that the political climate might not be right.
"If Trump had lost, I think it would be a good atmosphere in 2026 to run in an open Senate seat," said LaHood, who added, "We'll see. I'm not closing the door on anything."
Rep. Mike Bost, though, said he wouldn't be seeking a promotion. The state's final GOP representative, far-right Rep. Mary Miller, did not respond to Huiskes' inquiries.
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Pennsylvania will host a pair of special elections Tuesday in districts that normally are not competitive, but one Republican activist has warned that Democrats could flip a GOP-held seat in the state Senate.
A recent tweet from organizer Scott Pressler claiming that Republicans "are currently losing" the race for the vacant 36th District caught the attention of none other than Elon Musk, though it's not clear just how worried GOP leaders are. (Musk, for instance, does not appear to have followed up with any sort of cash infusion.)
The contest pits Republican Josh Parsons, a Lancaster County commissioner, against Democrat James Malone, mayor of the small community of East Petersburg. The district, which includes portions of Lancaster County just north of the city of the same name, became vacant when Republican state Sen. Ryan Aument resigned to take a job with newly elected U.S. Sen. Dave McCormick.
The constituency Aument left behind—about 90 minutes west of Philadelphia—has been in GOP hands since its creation more than 40 years ago. It voted for Donald Trump by a 57-42 margin last year, according to calculations by The Downballot.
Democrats don't seem to be sweating the other special election, a contest for the Pittsburgh-area 35th House District on the other side of the state, even though it's the sixth time control of the lower chamber has nominally been on the line since 2022.
There, police officer and local school board member Dan Goughnour is running for the Democrats while Chuck Davis, the president of the council in the small borough of White Oak, has the Republican nod. The district, which is vacant following the death of Democratic Rep. Matt Gergely in January, went for Kamala Harris by a 58-42 spread.
If Goughnour prevails, he'd restore the Democrat's narrow 102-101 majority in the House. The Senate, though, will remain in GOP hands no matter what: Republicans currently hold 27 seats to 22 for the Democrats, with just the 36th District unfilled.
Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola would lead Republican Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom 44-34 in a hypothetical race for governor, according to a poll from the Democratic firm Data for Progress conducted earlier this month.
The same survey shows Peltola deadlocked at 46 apiece with Republican Nick Begich in a possible rematch for Alaska's sole House district; Begich unseated Peltola 51-49 last year as Donald Trump was carrying the state 55-41.
Peltola has not announced what she's doing next, though the Cook Political Report said last month she would "likely" run for governor. Dahlstrom has also been talked about as a potential contender to succeed termed-out Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a fellow Republican, though she has yet to commit to anything either. Dahlstrom challenged Peltola last year but dropped out after she took a disappointing third place in Alaska's unique top-four primary.
The state requires all candidates to run on a single primary ballot, with the top four contenders, regardless of party, advancing to a ranked-choice general election. Conservative activists narrowly failed to repeal this system at the ballot box last year, though they're collecting signatures to try again in 2026.
Former TV anchor Casey DeSantis finally acknowledged Friday that she could run to succeed her husband, termed-out Gov. Ron DeSantis, though Florida's first lady provided little information beyond saying, "We'll see." Her comments, made at an event hosted by the National Review, came a few days after NBC's Matt Dixon reported that the governor's team was trying to deter lobbyists from donating to Rep. Byron Donalds, who has Donald Trump's backing in the GOP primary.
Former state Sen. Ed Durr dropped out of the Republican primary for governor hours before candidate filing closed on Monday and endorsed conservative radio host Bill Spadea. In the few polls we've seen, Spadea has trailed former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, who came unexpectedly close to winning the 2021 general election, while state Sen. Jon Bramnick and several minor candidates are also in the mix.
There were no last-minute developments on the Democratic side, where six prominent candidates are competing to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy. Every poll that's been released has shown Rep. Mikie Sherrill in the lead but with a significant portion of voters undecided, and there's no consensus on who her main opponent is.
The latest survey comes from Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, who has publicized an internal poll from MDW arguing he's Sherrill's chief threat:
Rep. Mikie Sherrill: 14
Newark Mayor Ras Baraka: 12
Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop: 9
New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller: 8
Rep. Josh Gottheimer: 5
Former state Sen. Steve Sweeney: 5
Undecided: 47
Two weeks ago, a pro-Spiller group released its own numbers finding Sherrill leading him 20-15, with Baraka just behind at 14%.
NM-Gov
Lt. Gov. Howie Morales recently said he was "not ruling out running for governor" in what appear to be his first public comments about the race since 2023, though he's eyeing another post as well. Morales, a Democrat, informed the Santa Fe New Mexican that he's thinking about applying to become president of his alma mater, Western New Mexico University, a school that's attracted unwelcome scrutiny from state officials over its spending.
Former U.S. Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland is still the only major candidate running to replace termed-out Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, a fellow Democrat. Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima, however, formed an exploratory committee last month for a possible bid for the Democratic nomination, while Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman could also enter the primary.
Former Sen. Sherrod Brown informed the New York Times that he remains interested in running for "governor or senator," though the Ohio Democrat didn't indicate whether he was leaning toward one or the other. But Brown, who is 72, also said he might sit both races out, telling reporter Reid Epstein, "I really don't know if I want to run for office again."
Meanwhile, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign for governor received an endorsement over the weekend from Sen. Bernie Moreno, the Republican who unseated Brown last year.
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Former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez on Monday became the first prominent candidate to enter the July 15 special Democratic primary to succeed the late Democratic Rep. Raul Grijalva in Arizona's reliably blue 7th District. The filing deadline is April 14, so other potential candidates have just a few weeks to decide whether they want to campaign for this Tucson-area seat in the southwestern part of the state.
Hernandez attracted national attention in 2011 when, as a congressional intern, he provided life-saving assistance to his boss, Rep. Gabby Giffords, after she was shot in the head in a mass shooting at a constituent event she was hosting outside of a Tucson supermarket. President Barack Obama extolled Hernandez at the memorial service for the six people who were killed, telling him, "I'm sorry, you may deny it, but we've decided you are a hero."
Hernandez became one of the most prominent gay politicians in the state after he won a seat in the state House in 2016 (his two sisters were also later elected to the chamber), and he set his sights higher in 2022 when he ran for the 6th Congressional District. Former state Sen. Kirsten Engel, though, beat him 59-35 in the primary for the 6th, which borders the constituency Hernandez is now seeking, before narrowly losing the general election to Republican Juan Ciscomani.
CA-11
Healthcare executive David Brailer tells the New York Times he's "strongly considering" running for Rep. Nancy Pelosi's San Francisco constituency, and he may not wait to see if the speaker emerita will retire. An unnamed source informs reporter Heather Knight that Brailer, who is not currently registered with either party, would self-fund at least $10 million.
Pelosi already faces intraparty opposition from activist Saikat Chakrabarti, who managed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's upset 2018 primary campaign in New York and served as her first chief of staff. Chakrabarti, who resigned in 2019 after comparing moderate Democrats to segregationists, was an early employee at the payment processing giant Stripe and says he's also ready to self-fund his effort.
Other local politicians have made it known they want to run whenever Pelosi, who turns 85 on Wednesday, steps aside, but she's given no indication when that will be. The incumbent recently deflected inquiries from eager reporters, telling aides, "Why do they always give women the dumb questions?"
FL-06
With just a week to go, Republicans are signaling they're concerned about state Sen. Randy Fine's ability to seal the deal in the special election for Florida's 6th Congressional District despite the area's deep-red hue.
On Monday, NRCC chair Richard Hudson chided that Fine "needs to do better" when it comes to fundraising, though there's precious little time to make up the massive gap he faces. In disclosures late last week, Democrat Josh Weil reported raising $8.8 million between Jan. 9 and March 12 while Fine's haul was just $560,000 during that same period.
Fine has since sought to narrow Weil's advantage by self-funding $600,000, while a pair of conservative groups have dumped in more than $2 million on TV ads. One spot implores, "Republicans, President Trump needs you on April 1st" and calls Weil an "AOC clone." A new Weil ad, meanwhile, blasts Fine as "anti-American" for "support[ing] the idea that Social Security is the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time."
A Weil victory would still be a massive upset, though: The 6th District, which is located along the state's northeastern coast around the Daytona Beach area, voted for Donald Trump by a 65-35 margin last year, according to calculations by The Downballot.
IL-09
Political commentator Kat Abughazaleh, a former researcher for the liberal fact-checking organization Media Matters, announced Monday that she'd run for Illinois' 9th District. This safely blue seat is held by 14-term Rep. Jan Schakowsky, an 80-year-old Democrat who has not yet announced if she'll run again.
Abughazaleh, who implored fellow Democrats to "grow a fucking spine" in her launch video, did not mention Schakowsky in her kickoff. The 26-year-old, however, snarked to Rolling Stone that the incumbent was first elected when she was four months away from being born. Schakowsky first won her seat in 1998 after beating future Gov. J.B. Pritzker in the Democratic primary and has not been seriously challenged since then.
Schakowsky responded to the development by telling Axios' Andrew Solender that she hasn't "totally made up my mind yet" about seeking another term. But if she retires, countless local Democrats would take a look at running to succeed her in this reliably blue district, which includes a portion of Chicago and communities to the north like Evanston and Skokie.
Abughazaleh, for her part, is a Texas native who moved to Illinois less than a year ago and does not live in the 9th District. (Members of Congress do not need to reside in the district they represent.)
NY-17
Former National Security Council official Cait Conley kicked off a bid for New York's 17th Congressional District on Monday, making her the third notable Democrat looking to flip this competitive district in the lower Hudson Valley.
Conley, who joined the Army after 9/11, launched her campaign with a video that shows her pumping iron as she explains she served "in combat zones like Iraq and Afghanistan, hunting down brutal terrorists." She concludes her message with a bleeped-out, "Let's fucking go."
It's not clear whether the seat's current occupant, Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, will seek reelection or run for governor instead, but a contested Democratic primary seems all but certain. Conley joins a field that includes Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson and nonprofit head Jessica Reinmann, while several other names are also in the mix.
Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans told NBC10 over the weekend that he's doing "[f]ine" 10 months after he suffered a stroke that kept him from casting any votes for the remainder of the 118th Congress, and he indicated he plans to seek reelection next year.
While Evans did not directly tell reporter Lauren Mayk that he'd run again, the 70-year-old congressman declared that he retains "the passion and the commitment" to serve. (The relevant portion of the interview begins at the 17:00 mark.) Evans' constituency, which includes almost half of Philadelphia, has long been one of the most Democratic congressional districts in the entire country.
TN-06
Three Tennessee Republicans say they're considering running to succeed GOP Rep. John Rose in the 6th District, including one person who left the House more than two decades ago. That blast from the past is former Rep. Van Hilleary, who represented what was then numbered the 4th District from 1995 to 2003; he now informs the Tennessee Journal that he's thinking about a return.
Hilleary lost a tight race for governor to Democrat Phil Bredesen in 2002, then took third place in the 2006 GOP primary for Senate. After a career as a lobbyist, he joined Rose's office as his chief of staff, a post he still holds. His boss, though, is giving up his seat in Congress to wage a campaign for governor.
Two state representatives, Johnny Garrett and Ryan Williams, are also mulling campaigns for this Middle Tennessee constituency. The Volunteer State, unlike many other Southern states, does not hold runoffs for party primaries, so whoever wins a plurality in next year's nomination contest will be all but assured victory in the general election for this dark red seat.
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Former Utah Rep. Mia Love, whose 2014 win made her the first Black woman elected to the House as a Republican, died Sunday at the age of 49, three years after being diagnosed with brain cancer. Love served for two terms before losing reelection to Ben McAdams during the 2018 Democratic wave.
Love first rose to national prominence in 2012 when she narrowly failed to unseat Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson in the conservative 4th District, but she launched a second campaign shortly before the congressman decided to retire. Love went on to win an unexpectedly competitive 2014 campaign against Democrat Doug Owens, but she decisively fended him off in a 2016 rematch.
McAdams, though, ended Love's career two years later by unseating her 50.1-49.9, a margin of fewer than 700 votes. Donald Trump characteristically responded to Love's defeat by saying, "Mia Love gave me no love and she lost." Love did not seek office again and instead became a CNN commentator and a host of the ABC talk show "The View."
I have been applauding Bernie Sanders’ and Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez’s huge rallies. Really glad they’re standing up to Trump and loudly taking their fight to the American public. Until I spotted this, which gave me pause... :
. BERNIE’s BAD IDEA: "The Left Should Leave the Democratic Party"
"At a time when plenty of people have advice for unhappy progressive Democrats, one of their heroes, Bernie Sanders, had a succinct message: Don't love the party, leave it.
"In an interview with the New York Times, he previewed a barnstorming tour he has undertaken with Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez but made it clear he wouldn't be asking audiences to rally 'round the Democratic Party. "One of the aspects of this tour is to try to rally people to get engaged in the political process and run as independents outside of the Democratic Party," Sanders said."
EDIT: Just to be clear, my aim is NOT to attack either Bernie or AOC, but to express concern about the *elections consequence* of this – if the reporting and the NYT interview with Bernie are accurate. I think those consequences are worth discussing here on The Downballot.
Whether or not Dick Durbin (80) runs for re-election, Sheldon Whitehouse should immediately replace him as ranking Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee.
Senator Whitehouse is highly capable, he does not suffer fools or misinformation or Republican manipulation – he is the fighter we need for the precarious times in which we live.
Sheldon Whitehouse’s excellent Senate lectures on how the dark money and the Federalist Society captured the Supreme Court and much of our judicial system is well worth watching!
Had Whitehouse been Chair of the Senate Judiciary these last four years, I believe we would have quite a few more Biden-appointed judges in place in our federal courts.
I have been applauding Bernie Sanders’ and Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez’s huge rallies. Really glad they’re standing up to Trump and loudly taking their fight to the American public. Until I spotted this, which gave me pause... :
. BERNIE’s BAD IDEA: "The Left Should Leave the Democratic Party"
"At a time when plenty of people have advice for unhappy progressive Democrats, one of their heroes, Bernie Sanders, had a succinct message: Don't love the party, leave it.
"In an interview with the New York Times, he previewed a barnstorming tour he has undertaken with Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez but made it clear he wouldn't be asking audiences to rally 'round the Democratic Party. "One of the aspects of this tour is to try to rally people to get engaged in the political process and run as independents outside of the Democratic Party," Sanders said."
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/20/us/politics/bernie-sanders-democrats-independents.html
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/bernie-sanderss-bad-idea-left-should-quit-democratic-party.html
Thoughts, anyone?
EDIT: Just to be clear, my aim is NOT to attack either Bernie or AOC, but to express concern about the *elections consequence* of this – if the reporting and the NYT interview with Bernie are accurate. I think those consequences are worth discussing here on The Downballot.
Whether or not Dick Durbin (80) runs for re-election, Sheldon Whitehouse should immediately replace him as ranking Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee.
Senator Whitehouse is highly capable, he does not suffer fools or misinformation or Republican manipulation – he is the fighter we need for the precarious times in which we live.
Sheldon Whitehouse’s excellent Senate lectures on how the dark money and the Federalist Society captured the Supreme Court and much of our judicial system is well worth watching!
Had Whitehouse been Chair of the Senate Judiciary these last four years, I believe we would have quite a few more Biden-appointed judges in place in our federal courts.