Morning Digest: State supreme court races were a mixed bag in 2024

Liberals won some important races, but conservatives made gains, too

Pamela Goodwine (right) will become the first Black woman to serve on the Kentucky Supreme Court (credit: Pamela Goodwine Facebook)

Leading Off

State Supreme Courts

Despite the outcome at the top of the ticket, races for state supreme courts across the country offered a much more mixed result, with Democrats and liberals scoring some important wins but also facing some setbacks. Below we catalog Tuesday's most notable races.

• Arizona: Two conservative justices who faced retention elections, Clint Bolick and Kathryn King, both earned another six-year term, but voters decisively rejected a GOP-backed amendment to eliminate judicial elections entirely.

Bolick is currently at 59% and King at 60%; while many votes remain to be counted, they won't affect the outcome. The court will therefore remain dominated by justices appointed by Republican governors, who make up all nine members today, but Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs will soon get her first chance to fill a vacancy when she names a replacement for Robert Brutinel, who resigned last month.

But voters will retain the right to remove judges from office after they voted down Proposition 137, which trails by a huge 77-23 margin. In addition to ending regular elections for judges, the measure would have also retroactively canceled any such elections that took place this year.

• Kentucky: Conservatives saw their advantage on Kentucky's top court shrink to 4-3 after Court of Appeals Judge Pamela Goodwine resoundingly defeated attorney Erin Izzo by a 77-23 margin in an officially nonpartisan race.

Goodwine, who had the support of Democrats like Gov. Andy Beshear and will be the first Black woman to serve on the court, flipped the 5th District, which had been held by a retiring conservative justice. Her victory came even though Donald Trump carried the district, which is based around Lexington and the state capital of Frankfort, by a 52-46 margin over Kamala Harris.

• Louisiana: Democrat John Guidry, a judge on the state Court of Appeal, was unopposed in his bid for the 2nd District on the Louisiana Supreme Court, but his win nonetheless represents a milestone. Thanks to a new map drawn to allow Black voters to elect their preferred candidate, Guidry will now be the second Black justice on the bench. In addition, Republicans will now hold a smaller 4-2 majority, with one seat occupied by an independent.

• Michigan: Michigan Democrats made the most of their opportunities this year by flipping a Republican-held open seat and increasing their majority on the Supreme Court to 5-2. The newest member of the court will be law professor Kimberly Thomas, who earned an eight-year term by defeating Republican state Rep. Andrew Fink in a 61-39 landslide.

Meanwhile, Justice Kyra Harris Bolden, who was appointed to fill a vacancy two years ago, turned back Republican Patrick William O'Grady, a circuit court judge, with a similarly decisive 62-38 performance. Because Bolden was named to an unexpired term, she will be up for election again in four years.

• Mississippi: A competitive race for Mississippi's Supreme Court will head to a runoff on Nov. 26 after no candidate won a majority in the first round of voting for a seat in the 1st District.

In Tuesday's officially nonpartisan contest, Republican state Sen. Jenifer Branning, a self-described "Christian conservative," led Justice Jim Kitchens, who's variously been described as either a moderate or a liberal, by a 41-36 margin in the first round of voting, with the balance going to other candidates. Branning has heavily outspent Kitchens to date, but Kamala Harris narrowly carried the district, which stretches across the middle of Mississippi, by a 50-49 spread.

Meanwhile, in the deep red 2nd District in the southern third of the state, a conservative incumbent was unseated in a shocking upset. Justice Dawn Beam lost to challenger David Sullivan, an attorney and son of a former member of the Supreme Court, by a 55-45 margin.

In an unusual twist, Sullivan criticized Beam for running ads touting her endorsement by the Mississippi Republican Party, telling the Biloxi Sun Herald's Anita Lee that her message "rubbed a lot of people the wrong way" because judicial elections "are nonpartisan for a reason." Even Beam seemed to distance herself from the GOP after her loss, telling the paper, "I did not seek that endorsement. They endorsed me."

• Montana: Progressives prevented conservatives from taking a majority on the Montana Supreme Court by splitting a pair of officially nonpartisan races for seats held by two retiring liberal justices.

Broadwater County Prosecutor Cory Swanson, who had the support of Republicans, won the contest to serve as Montana's next chief justice, defeating former federal Magistrate Judge Jerry Lynch, the candidate backed by Democrats, 54-46. But the result was the exact opposite in the election for the open position of associate justice, which pitted two state district court judges against one another. There, the liberal-aligned Katherine Bidegaray beat conservative Dan Wilson by that same 54-46 margin.

As a result, the bench will remain divided between two liberal justices, two moderate swing votes, and three conservatives. Montanans can therefore expect the court to continue to clamp down on GOP power grabs and protect abortion rights, as it has for many years.

• North Carolina: The most disappointing judicial race for Democrats unfolded in North Carolina, where Justice Allison Riggs currently trails her Republican opponent, Jefferson Griffin, by about 7,600 votes—a margin of just 0.1%. While a recount is possible, it would be unlikely to change the outcome.

If the result holds, Republicans would extend their majority to 6-1. Democrats could conceivably retake the court in 2028, when three GOP-held seats will all be up at once, but first they'll need to reelect the lone remaining Democrat, Justice Anita Earls, when she goes before voters in 2026.

• Ohio: Republicans swept all three races for the Ohio Supreme Court, flipping two Democratic-held seats and increasing their majority to 6-1.

• Oklahoma: Conservatives succeeded in ousting one Democratic-appointed justice in a retention election, but two others they'd targeted both narrowly survived.

Yvonne Kauger, who has served on the Oklahoma Supreme Court since 1984, fell fewer than 7,000 votes short, with 50.2% of voters saying she should not be granted another six-year term versus 49.8% who wanted her to stay on. Noma Gurich, by contrast, hung on 50.3 to 49.7, while James Edmondson prevailed by a slightly wider 51-49 margin.

Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt, who had backed the campaign to defeat all three incumbents, will get to choose a replacement for Kauger.

House

ME-02

Election officials in Maine will conduct ranked-choice tabulations to resolve the race in the 2nd Congressional District on Tuesday at 1 PM ET, but Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is objecting to the use of the ranked-choice process altogether.

In a letter to the state attorney general's office on Thursday, an attorney for Golden pointed out that regulations from the secretary of state specify that ranked-choice only comes into play if no candidate "receives more than 50% of the first choice votes based on the election returns."

As the letter notes, Golden currently leads Republican Austin Theriault 50.2 to 49.7 among first-choice votes. It is only when a further 12,635 blank ballots are considered that Golden falls below a majority. Secretary of State Shenna Bellows has said these undervotes must be included in determining whether ranked-choice must be invoked, but even if she proceeds, Theriault's odds of overcoming his deficit are vanishingly small.

Election Recaps

Race Calls

• NV-Sen: Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen held off Republican Sam Brown 48-46 with 96% counted in Nevada even as Donald Trump carried the state 51-48. 

Brown's near win came after Rosen and her allies massively outspent him throughout the campaign, so much so that national Republicans even came close to giving up on their candidate in mid-October. The Senate Leadership Fund, which had remained on the sidelines even as it dumped massive sums into other states, finally swooped in to help Brown late last month, but its belated vote of confidence was not enough.

• AZ-01: GOP Rep. David Schweikert held off Democrat Amish Shah 52-48 with 95% counted in Arizona’s 1st District, which includes northeastern Phoenix and Scottsdale.

• AZ-02: Republican Rep. Eli Crane defeated Democrat Jonathan Nez 54-46 with 92% tabulated in Arizona's 2nd District, which is based in the northeastern part of the state.

• AZ-04: Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton fended off Republican Kelly Cooper 53-46 with 95% tabulated in the 4th District in the eastern Phoenix area.

• CA-12: BART board member Lateefah Simon defeated California State University East Bay professor Jennifer Tran in the all-Democratic contest for the 12th District, a dark blue constituency that includes Oakland and Berkeley. 

Simon, who will be the second legally blind person to ever serve in Congress, leads 64-36 with just 40% of the vote counted. The first was Oklahoma Sen. Thomas Gore, a Democrat who was the grandfather of the famed author Gore Vidal and retired in 1937.

• CA-39: Democratic Rep. Mark Takano outpaced Republican David Serpa 56-44 with 70% counted in the 39th District, which is based around Riverside and Moreno Valley.

• CO-08: Republican Gabe Evans secured victory in Colorado's 8th District after Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo conceded the race on Sunday. Caraveo was ahead until Friday, but ballots tabulated that day left Evans with a lead that he never relinquished. Evans is outpacing Caraveo 49-48 with 96% counted in a district based in Denver's Northern suburbs and the Greeley area.  

• LA-06: Democrat Cleo Fields beat Republican Elbert Guillory 51-38 in Louisiana's 6th District, which the legislature redrew this cycle following a lawsuit brought under the Voting Rights Act, with the balance going to a trio of underfunded Democrats. By securing a majority of the vote, Fields averted a Dec. 7 runoff.

Fields, whose 1992 election made him Louisiana's second Black congressman since Reconstruction, will be returning to the House 28 years after federal courts struck down his former constituency as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. The new 6th District, a majority Black seat that stretches from the Shreveport area southeast to Baton Rouge, bears a close resemblance to Fields' old 4th District.

• MD-06: Democrat April McClain Delaney held off Republican Neil Parrott 52-48 with 92% reporting in Maryland's 6th District, which includes the western part of the state and several of Washington, D.C.'s suburbs.

• NE-02: Republican Rep. Don Bacon defeated Democrat Tony Vargas 51-49 in Nebraska's 2nd District, which matches Bacon's performance in their first bout two years ago. The congressman's victory came even as Kamala Harris was taking his Omaha-based constituency, and with it a single vote in the electoral college, 52-47.

• OR-06: Democratic Rep. Andrea Salinas won her rematch against Republican Mike Erickson 53-47 with 78% tabulated in Oregon's 6th District. Two years ago, Salinas beat Erickson 50-48 in the race to represent the Salem area and southwestern Portland suburbs.

• WA-03: Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez defeated Republican Joe Kent 52-48 with 95% counting in Washington's 3rd District, which is based in the southwestern part of the state. Gluesenkamp Perez defeated the far-right Kent 50.1-49.9 in 2022 in one of the biggest shockers of the midterms.

• WA-04: Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse fended off an intra-party challenge from businessman Jerrod Sessler 53-47 with 84% counted in the conservative 4th District in central Washington. The incumbent, along with California Rep. David Valadao, is one of the two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump following the Jan. 6 riot, prompting Trump to repeatedly urge voters to eject the congressman.

Governors

PR-Gov, PR Ballot

Jenniffer Gonzalez, who belongs to both the Republican Party and Puerto Rico's pro-statehood New Progressive Party (often known by its acronym in Spanish, PNP), won Tuesday's race for governor.

Gonzalez holds a 39-33 lead over Juan Dalmau, who ran as part of an alliance between the Puerto Rican Independence Party, which wants Puerto Rico to separate from the United States, and the youth-oriented Citizen Victory Movement.

But while Dalmau fell short, he celebrated the fact that he'd run far ahead of Jesus Manuel Ortiz, the nominee of the Popular Democratic Party, or PPD, who ended up with just 21%. The PPD has long been the main alternative to Gonzalez's PNP, though Dalmau argued that the results show the status quo is changing.

"Who would have thought that a candidate from the Puerto Rican Independence Party, representing a countrywide alliance, would break the back of the two-party system in Puerto Rico?" he said in an election night speech, according to the San Juan Daily Star.

The PNP, however, also made history by becoming the first party to secure a third consecutive term in the governor's mansion. (The 16th-century building, known as La Fortaleza or "The Fortress," is the oldest continuously used executive mansion in the Western Hemisphere.)

The PPD did get some good news on an otherwise tough night by winning the race to replace Gonzalez as Puerto Rico's non-voting member of Congress, or resident commissioner. The PPD has long been close to the Democratic Party and its victorious candidate, Pablo Jose Hernandez, is also a Democrat, as is Ortiz.

The PNP's membership is more split, with some of its members affiliated with the Democrats and some with Republicans. Gonzalez, for instance, won the June primary by unseating Gov. Pedro Pierluisi, who identifies as a Democrat. (Dalmau, by contrast, does not identify with either.)

National Democrats and Republicans rarely get involved in the island's elections, though AdImpact reported that the Republican Governors Association spent close to $200,000 on pro-Gonzalez ads in her primary.

In a non-binding referendum concerning the island's legal status held the same day, 57% of participants voted to become a state. Another 31% said they wanted Puerto Rico to become an independent nation, with the remaining 12% supporting independence with free association. There was no option to reaffirm the territory's current status as a commonwealth, though, which may help explain why 169,000 voters, out of 1.1 million total, left the question blank. 

This is the seventh time Puerto Rico has held such a referendum, but only Congress can approve any departure from the status quo. Republicans have long resisted statehood on purely partisan grounds, claiming that Puerto Rico would be a Democratic bastion. But while Kamala Harris prevailed 73-27 in the island's symbolic presidential vote, Gonzalez's victory shows Puerto Rico's politics are considerably more complex than the traditional partisan divide on the mainland.

Mayors & County Leaders

Maricopa County, AZ Board of Supervisors

Republicans hold small leads in two key races for the five-member Maricopa County Board of Supervisors. Because they're assured control of two other seats and Democrats just one, the GOP only needs to win one of these two races to keep control of the body. The Associated Press estimates that at least 95% of the vote had been tabulated in both races as of Sunday evening.

In the race for the 1st District around Chandler and Tempe, Republican hardliner Mark Stewart leads Democrat Joel Navarro 52-48. The seat is open because Stewart unseated Supervisor Jack Sellers in the August primary. Sellers, who along with his colleagues has spent years on the receiving end of harassment from election conspiracy theorists, went on to endorse Navarro.

Over in the Phoenix-based 3rd District, Republican Kate Brophy McGee holds a slim 50.1-49.9 edge over Democrat Daniel Valenzuela. The winner will succeed retiring GOP Supervisor Bill Gates, who said he was diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder after being bombarded with death threats.

Raleigh, NC Mayor

Former State Treasurer Janet Cowell overwhelmingly won the officially nonpartisan race to succeed retiring Mayor Mary-Ann Baldwin, a fellow Democrat, by beating Republican Paul Fitts 60-18, with the balance going to other candidates.

Richmond, VA Mayor

Physician Danny Avula won the race for mayor of Richmond by carrying six of the city's nine wards, which, under the city's unusual electoral rules, was one more than he needed to avoid a Dec. 17 runoff. The other three wards went to a second Democrat, former City Council President Michelle Mosby.

Avula, who will be the first Indian American to lead Virginia's capital city, also outpaced Mosby 46-25 in the popular vote. He'll succeed termed-out Mayor Levar Stoney, who is seeking the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor next year.

Sacramento, CA Mayor

In the all-Democratic race for mayor of Sacramento, Assemblyman Kevin McCarty leads physician Flojaune Cofer 54-46 with 114,000 ballots counted. Election data expert Paul Mitchell tells the Sacramento Bee that he estimates that 200,000 voters cast ballots in the city, so the current tally would represent just under 60% of the total votes cast.

Both sides agree the race to lead the state capital is unresolved. Cofer vaulted from fourth place in the March nonpartisan primary all the way to first because ballots tabulated after election day favored her, a phenomenon that could propel her again.

San Diego, CA Mayor

Democratic Mayor Todd Gloria leads independent Larry Turner 55-45 with about 480,000 ballots counted in the officially nonpartisan race for mayor of San Diego. Gloria declared victory on Tuesday evening, though Turner still has not conceded.

San Diego County, CA Board of Supervisors

Democratic Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer is outpacing her Republican foe, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, 57-43 with 270,000 ballots counted in this officially nonpartisan contest. A victory for Lawson-Remer would preserve Democrats' 3-2 majority on the San Diego County Board of Supervisors.

Prosecutors and Sheriffs

Alameda County, CA District Attorney & Oakland, CA Mayor

Voters in the East Bay recalled both Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price and Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao halfway through their terms. With 40% reporting in each, a 65-35 majority supports ousting Price, while the recall against Thao leads by a similar 64-36.

Both women were elected as progressives in 2022, but critics quickly portrayed them as weak on crime. Thao's opponents also got a new line of attack in June when the FBI raided her home as part of a local corruption investigation. Both recall campaigns were heavily bankrolled by venture capitalist Philip Dreyfuss, who two years ago was one of the top donors in the successful effort to recall San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin.

The county Board of Supervisors will now be tasked with choosing Price's replacement for the final two years of her term. In Oakland, meanwhile, a special election will take place within 120 days of the City Council officially declaring the mayor's office open, a proclamation that KTVU's Lisa Fernandez says will likely come on or before Dec. 17.

In the meantime, City Council President Nikki Fortunato Bas is set to succeed Thao on an interim basis, though it's unclear for how long. The San Francisco Chronicle says that the Oakland City Council could choose a new president―and therefore yet another new mayor―next year whether or not Bas, who is seeking a seat on the Alameda County Board of Supervisors, overcomes what's currently a 54-46 deficit against Emeryville City Councilor John Bauters.

But even before Thao's fate was known, local politicos had begun positioning themselves to succeed her. Former Oakland City Councilman Loren Taylor, who lost to Thao two years ago in a 50.3-49.7 squeaker, told KRON 4 back in June, "You will likely see my name on the next mayoral election ballot." He reaffirmed on Friday, “I am the strongest candidate, potential candidate, and ready to jump in and actually lead our city forward.”

Taylor, though, is far from the most prominent Oaklander who's interested. Former star NFL running back Marshawn Lynch, who attracted global fame with the Seattle Seahawks, generated widespread attention last month when he told his fellow hosts on his podcast that might seek to lead his hometown. One of those cohosts―Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom―enthusiastically responded by referencing Lynch's nickname and encouraging him to go "Beast Mode."

More recently, outgoing Rep. Barbara Lee likewise did not reject the idea of running for mayor when Da Lin of the local CBS affiliate inquired about her interest. “We'll have time later for other conversations,” Lee said after repeatedly being asked about a potential campaign. “We'll have time to talk about this later.”

Albany County, NY District Attorney

Democrat Lee Kindlon had no trouble winning the race for Albany County district attorney after a write-in campaign by the man he beat in the June primary, longtime incumbent David Soares, went nowhere. Kindlon outpaced Republican Ralph Ambrosio 61-35, while just 3% wrote in another name.

Harris County, TX District Attorney

Democrat Sean Teare won a tight 51-49 victory over Republican Dan Simons in the race to become the top prosecutor for Texas' most populous county.

Voters in Harris County, which includes almost all of Houston and many of its suburbs, learned they'd soon be getting a new district attorney back in March when Teare beat two-term incumbent Kim Ogg in a primary landslide. Ogg, who has long had an acrimonious relationship with the party's rank and file and has been the subject of numerous unfavorable headlines about her performance in office, went on to star in ads for Ted Cruz.

Macomb County, MI Prosecutor

Republican incumbent Peter Lucido held off Democrat Christina Hines 57-43 in the contest to serve as the top prosecutor in Macomb County, a populous community located north of Detroit, despite several scandals.

Maricopa County, AZ Attorney

Republican incumbent Rachel Mitchell beat Democrat Tamika Wooten 55-45 with most of the vote tabulated in the race to be Maricopa County's chief prosecutor.

San Francisco, CA District Attorney

San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins defeated Ryan Khojasteh, a fellow Democrat who ran against her from the left, 66-34 with about 310,000 ballots tabulated.

Tarrant County, TX Sheriff

Far-right Sheriff Bill Waybourn defeated Democrat Patrick Moses 54-46 to win reelection in Tarrant County, which includes Fort Worth and Arlington. Democrats hoped that Joe Biden's 49.3-49.2 win here in 2020 signaled the start of a political realignment in this longtime GOP stronghold, but Donald Trump instead carried the county 52-47 on Tuesday.

Other Races

VT-LG

Republican John Rodgers unexpectedly outpaced Democratic Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman 49-47, but, because Rodgers failed to secure a majority of the vote, it's up to Vermont's Democratic-led legislature to select a winner when it reconvenes in January. And while lawmakers haven't snubbed the candidates with the most votes since 1976, Zuckerman expressed some optimism on Thursday they could select him.

Confusingly, Zuckerman said in a Thursday interview on WVMT that he'd "conceded to John" but then added, "But as you just pointed out and everybody else, the legislature gets to make the decision."

Zuckerman went on to note that Ian Diamondstone, who took 4% of the vote running for the left-wing Green Mountain Peace and Justice Party, called on lawmakers to keep the incumbent in office.

"I did hear that late yesterday the folks from the Peace & Justice Party put out a press release saying, 'Hey, we think our votes should be counted towards David and he should win," the lieutenant governor said. Zuckerman voiced agreement with the idea while still expressing skepticism that lawmakers would retain him.

"[T]hat's for them to decide. I don't think they're going to decide to do that," he told WVMT. "You know, I think there needs to be either a strong effort on my part or a strong effort on somebody else's part to make that happen. I'm not going to do that."

Rodgers, who previously served in the state House and Senate as a Democrat before announcing in May he'd run for lieutenant governor as a Republican, responded by telling VTDigger he doubted his old colleagues would snub him.

"I guess you've always gotta be concerned about shenanigans, but I have faith in the system, and I have faith in the Legislature," Rodgers said. "It wasn't like we only won by 10 votes. We won by 6,000."

Rodgers prevailed in this heavily Democratic state alongside Republican Gov. Phil Scott, who won a fifth two-year term with 73% of the vote. Scott had urged voters to break the Democratic supermajorities in the legislature that stymied him and also encouraged Vermonters to dump Zuckerman, whom the governor beat 68-27 four years ago. (Zuckerman gave up the lieutenant governor's office to wage that campaign but regained it in 2022 after his successor, Molly Gray, unsuccessfully ran for the U.S. House.)

Rodgers also earned a notable cross-party endorsement late in the campaign from former Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin, Scott's immediate predecessor. Shumlin, though, argued that he wasn't going against a fellow Democrat because Zuckerman chiefly identifies himself as a member of the left-wing Vermont Progressive Party. (The state allows candidates to claim multiple party nominations.) Shumlin also highlighted Rodgers' old party affiliation by saying, "Let's remember that one of them's a Democrat, and the other one's a Progressive, in my view."

Shumlin further cited voter anger at rising property taxes as a reason to support Rodgers, an issue that Scott and GOP candidates for the legislature campaigned hard on. While local politics didn't seem to have much of an impact at the top of the ticket―Kamala Harris' 64-33 win represented only a small drop from Joe Biden's showing―it helped Republicans make dramatic gains downballot and saw them end Democrats' supermajorities. A win for Rodgers could also set him up to eventually succeed Scott in a state where the Republican bench is small.