Morning Digest: Thank you for everything this year. We'd be grateful for your support.

It was a momentous year for us, and our readers made all the difference.

Leading Off

2024 was a momentous year for us—the most transformative in the two decades since I first launched this site as the Swing State Project.

When we said goodbye to our longtime home at Daily Kos Elections and launched The Downballot, we had no idea what the response would look like. Now, five months later, I can say that it has exceeded our grandest hopes.

Since this is The Downballot, after all, I thought I'd share a few relevant numbers. Today, we have 51,773 subscribers—a massive 10% jump from the 46,862 we had on day one. Most importantly, we now have 1,910 folks who've signed up for paid subscriptions. I'd love to put that in percentage terms, but let's just say this is the best possible divide-by-zero error we could ever have.

Even as we were in the midst of launching a whole new company with a whole new website, our one-of-a-kind analysis of overlooked elections continued at a blazing pace. To mention just a few highlights:

• We dramatically broadened our coverage of state supreme court elections, which have proven more essential than ever.

• We provided a wide range of unique data offerings, like our independent expenditure tracker, our fundraising charts, and our poll closing times map.

• And one that I'm most proud of, we dug deep to understand how many immigrants have actually moved to Springfield, Ohio, using real data to fill in an egregious gap created by myths, lies, and indifference.

Now we're hard at work on our quadrennial project to calculate the results of the most recent presidential election for all 435 congressional districts. We know everyone relies on these figures all the time (ourselves included!), so stay tuned for the numbers early next year.

But it was a difficult year as well. For anyone who cherishes democracy, last month's elections were wrenching. But as I said right after Election Day, a democracy like ours does not die overnight—especially if we fight for it.

That means downballot elections will be our most important battlefield in the coming years. And at the same time, ensuring the health of a robust independent media in the face of a growing autocratic crackdown is vital.

I humbly submit that if you agree with what I've said just above, one of the best ways you can serve both interests is by supporting The Downballot. We give defenders of democracy the information and tools they need to understand how to maximize their leverage and win elections. And we do so with accuracy and candor. We've never shied away from telling the truth, no matter how unpleasant it might be, and we're not about to start.

We launched The Downballot because, as you well know, the media's old models are no longer working. We believe that our best road to sustainability lies with our readers, who value what we do each and every day—not capricious advertisers who wouldn't even notice if we closed up shop, or some wealthy patron who could grow bored with us on a whim.

We've made tremendous strides along that road this year, but we still have quite a ways to go. For that reason, I am asking if you would consider a donation to The Downballot. We're on ActBlue, so giving is as easy as can be—just click the button below:

We put every penny to the best possible use. We keep our overhead to the barest minimum. We have no physical offices—we all work from home. We eschew pricey software and rely on free tools. All told, 98% of our expenses are personnel.

We've talked for years about getting the most bang for your buck when you make donations. You'd be hard-pressed to do better on that front than making a gift to The Downballot.

The most important lesson I ever learned has nothing to do with politics. Rather, from the youngest age, my mother taught me to always be grateful for my good fortune. I always have been, immensely so. This year, my gratitude is simply immense—for all the people who helped us build and launch The Downballot, for everyone who parted with their hard-earned dollars to support us, and for all the folks who simply believed in us.

So thank you, truly, from the bottom of my heart. We have so much in store for you next year, and I promise that your trust in us will be well-placed.

Wishing you a peaceful holiday season,

David Nir, Publisher

P.S. This will be the final Morning Digest of the year as we take a much-needed break. We'll be back in your inboxes on Jan. 6!

The Second Annual Downballot Awards

Senate

NH-Sen

Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown says he's considering a second Senate bid in his adopted state of New Hampshire.

"Is there another run? Yeah, I think so," the Republican tells WMUR's Adam Sexton. "I'm obviously looking at it." Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who defeated Brown in 2014, has not yet announced if she'll seek reelection.

Brown became a national sensation in 2010 when he won the special election to succeed the legendary Ted Kennedy in solidly blue Massachusetts, a victory that deprived Senate Democrats of their filibuster-proof 60-seat majority. Brown, though, went on to lose his 2012 reelection campaign to Democrat Elizabeth Warren.

Brown soon moved north and launched a campaign against Shaheen, a former governor who didn't hesitate to portray her opponent as an interloper. "New Hampshire is not Scott Brown's consolation prize," said Shaheen, who held on by a 51-48 margin in an ugly year for Democrats.

While Brown went on to serve as Trump's ambassador to New Zealand, he has not sought elected office in any state since that defeat. The former senator's wife, former TV reporter Gail Huff Brown, did seek the GOP nod in 2022 to take on Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas in New Hampshire's 1st District, but her campaign ended with a distant third-place showing in the primary.

OH-Sen, OH-13

Rep. Emilia Sykes seemed to rule out running in the 2026 special election for J.D. Vance's soon-to-be-former Senate seat last week, but new reporting indicates that the Ohio Democrat may not have completely rejected the idea.

Andrew Tobias reports in Signal Ohio that Sykes and EMILYs List president Jessica Mackler recently spoke "at length" about whether the congresswoman might run for this post. Sykes' team did not respond to Tobias' inquiries, but just last week, Axios' Andrew Solender, wrote last week that Sykes' office informed him she wouldn't pursue a Senate bid.

If Sykes did run statewide, she'd leave behind the 13th District, a competitive constituency currently based in the Akron and Canton areas. We say "currently" because Ohio will soon redraw its House map, and her district could end up looking quite different than it does now.

The uncertainty stems from the convoluted constitutional amendment that voters passed in 2018. Under that law, new maps are only valid for an entire decade if they win bipartisan support from the state's seven-member redistricting commission.

Because the two Democratic state legislators on the panel―none other than Sykes and her father, Vernon Sykes―didn't sign off on the map favored by the five Republicans, the amendment says that plan could only be used for two election cycles. As a result, it must be replaced by a new one.

Reformers tried to change this system and establish a bona fide independent redistricting commission, but voters rejected their amendment and kept the status quo in place. Republicans now will get the chance to implement new maps, and they could use the opportunity to target Sykes' district.

Governors

AL-Gov

Republican Jack Hawkins isn't closing the door on seeking the GOP nomination to succeed termed-out Gov. Kay Ivey, he informed the conservative site 1819 News this week.

"I've been encouraged to run but right now I'm focused on Troy University," said Hawkins, who is the school's chancellor. "I do want the state to have the benefit of the kind of leadership that we've had over the last few years with Gov. Ivey." Hawkins considered running for the governorship in 2009 but didn't go for it.

Hawkins has led the school since 1989, which Troy says makes him the "longest-serving chief executive officer of a public university" anywhere in the country. He announced this summer that he would retire but said weeks later that the Board of Trustees convinced him to stay on.

IA-Gov

Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds isn't saying whether she'll run for reelection in 2026, though both the Des Moines Register and the Iowa Capital Dispatch report that she's "expected" to seek a third full term. The governor told the Register she was concentrating on the upcoming legislative session, which is set to begin on Jan. 13 and conclude in late April.

Reynolds ascended from the lieutenant governor's office in 2017 after the longest-serving governor in American history, fellow Republican Terry Branstad, left to become Donald Trump's first ambassador to China. Reynolds won a tight race to keep her job the following year, but she romped to a 58-40 victory in 2022.

Trump's decisive 56-43 showing last month gives Reynolds plenty of reason to be optimistic about another easy win in this former swing state, but she may still need to get past a prominent Democrat. State Auditor Rob Sand hasn't dismissed talk that he could seek the top job, and Bleeding Heartland's Laura Belin last month identified him as a "likely" candidate.

Sand secured his second term as auditor by a razor-thin 50.1-49.9 margin in 2022. That win came on the same night that a pair of 10-term incumbents, Attorney General Tom Miller and Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, fell to Republican challengers, which left Sand as the lone remaining Democrat holding statewide office.

Democrats are hoping that, despite those dispiriting results, voters will still want a change after nearly a decade of Reynolds. However, she's not the only governor who could test whether voters want to keep their chief executives around in states without term limits.

In a new report, the University of Minnesota's Eric Ostermeier notes that Reynolds is one of six governors who are eligible to seek a third term in 2026, though, like Reynolds, none of her counterparts have revealed whether they'll go for it. This group consists of a quartet of Democrats―Connecticut's Ned Lamont, Illinois' J.B. Pritzker, Minnesota's Tim Walz, and Wisconsin's Tony Evers―plus Republican Brad Little of Idaho.

Texas Republican Greg Abbott, meanwhile, announced earlier this year that he'd run for a fourth term in 2026. Depending on how many of Abbott's long-serving colleagues join him, Ostermeier says they'll break the record for most governors to "seek a third or fourth consecutive four-year term in a single cycle," which currently stands at four.

WY-Gov

Wyoming Republicans are preparing for a busy contest to succeed termed-out Gov. Mark Gordon, but the incumbent hasn't dismissed persistent chatter that he could challenge those term-limit rules in court and run again in 2026.

Voters in the Equality State overwhelmingly approved a ballot initiative in 1992 that imposed a two-term cap on statewide elected officials and legislators, a prohibition that ostensibly prevents Gordon from claiming a third consecutive term. But the measure, as Cowboy State Daily's Leo Wolfson explained in July, was only statutory in nature and did not amend the state constitution, which is silent about term limits.

The state Supreme Court has twice ruled in separate cases that this omission meant the ballot measure was unconstitutional, first in regard to the legislature and later for downballot state offices like secretary of state. It's very likely that it's also invalid for the governorship, but no one has challenged it on that basis—yet.

There was talk in 2010 that two-term Gov. Dave Freudenthal, the last Democrat to lead this dark-red state, could take the matter to court, but he let the law stand. His successor, Republican Matt Mead, also shot down speculation that he might challenge the rule.

A Gordon spokesperson, by contrast, wouldn't comment when Wolfson asked about such a suit over the summer. The inquiry came shortly after Secretary of State Chuck Gray, an election denier who hasn't ruled out running for governor, told attendees at a political rally that he'd heard rumors that Gordon intends to take this very step.

"I will not certify him for office for a third term," Gray told an enthusiastic crowd. "I think everybody is in agreement, outside of the pure insiders and those that have crossed over into the party, that it's time for Gordon to move on."

Conservative activist Brent Bien more recently addressed this possibility when he launched his campaign for Gordon's job last month.

"If he wants to challenge it, let him jump in and let the folks decide when the time comes," said Bien, who lost the 2022 primary to Gordon 62-30.

Another Gordon antagonist has also talked about seeking the governorship, though he has a different beef. Treasurer Curt Meier griped in September that Gordon "blindsided me" when he came out against a plan that would give Meier's office more influence over state investments and was tired of "taking his shit."

"He's not going to work with me, he's not going to work with Chuck, he's just worried about himself," Meier told the state GOP's Central Committee―comments that Wolfson reported were greeted with a standing ovation. The treasurer has said that he's not eager to run for governor but added he feels he might have to if he doesn't get the changes he wants for his office.

House

NY-21

Putnam Town Supervisor Darrell Wilson said this week that he'd seek the Republican nod for the upcoming special election to succeed Rep. Elise Stefanik, who is Donald Trump's nominee for ambassador to the United Nations. Wilson serves a town of fewer than 600 people, and he acknowledged to NYVT Media that he begins with little name recognition.

The supervisor, though, only needs to appeal to the small group of party insiders who will decide the GOP nod for New York's conservative 21st District. Businessman Anthony Constantino and former Newsmax host Joe Pinion, who was the party's 2022 nominee for the U.S. Senate, are also trying to win over party leaders, and more candidates are likely to join them before long.

TX-21

Donald Trump expressed his wish on Thursday for someone to launch a primary challenge against Rep. Chip Roy, a Texas congressman who pissed off the party's supreme master by opposing Trump's last-second call to abolish the debt ceiling without Roy's desired spending cuts.

This isn't the first time that Trump has called for a fellow Republican to take on Roy, who supported Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the most recent presidential primary. "If interested, let me know!!!" Trump wrote last year on Truth Social.

He didn't seem to know or care, though, that Texas' candidate filing deadline had already passed, making it too late for any prospective Republicans to step forward for the 2024 elections. Roy, who had no intraparty opposition whatsoever, went on to easily claim a fourth term in the 21st District, a safely red seat that includes northern San Antonio and the Texas Hill Country.

Trump isn't procrastinating this time, but there's no guarantee an acceptable candidate will step forward. Trump learned that the hard way earlier this year after he encouraged "great MAGA Republicans" to challenge another DeSantis backer, Florida Rep. Laurel Lee. But no serious challengers answered those summons, and Trump ended up endorsing the woman he decided was actually "an incredible representative."

Judges

NC Supreme Court

Republican Jefferson Griffin, who is trying to invalidate 60,000 ballots cast in last month's election for the North Carolina Supreme Court, filed a petition on Wednesday seeking to skip the normal legal review process and bring his case directly before the court he's hoping to join. But the Democratic-controlled Board of Elections responded the following day by moving Griffin's case to federal court, where it's likely to remain.

Griffin, who trails Democratic Justice Allison Riggs by 734 votes following two separate recounts, previously asked the Board of Elections to throw out thousands of ballots, a request the panel denied last week. Under state law, Griffin was permitted to challenge that decision to a state trial court in Wake County, then appeal any ruling to the state's Court of Appeals and finally to its Supreme Court.

Instead, though, he proceeded directly to the top court, asking it to block the Board from counting the ballots he disputes. It's not clear whether Jefferson can circumvent the lower courts in this manner, but it may not matter. That's because the Board of Elections filed what's known as a "notice of removal" with a federal court based in the state capitol of Raleigh, which is home to the Board's headquarters.

The Board is relying on a federal statute that allows defendants who are sued in state court to "remove" their cases to federal court if they involve questions of federal law, as Griffin's does. (Griffin, for instance, invoked the Voting Rights Act in his petition.)

Griffin could try to reverse the removal, but such an effort would be unlikely to succeed, given the federal issues at play. His ballot challenges, however, still need to be adjudicated before the federal court in Raleigh.

It appears that the Board's case will go before the same judge, Richard Myers, who is hearing a separate lawsuit that the state Democratic Party filed earlier this month in the same court. The Democrats' request is the exact opposite of Griffin's: They're seeking to bar officials from discarding votes on the basis of Griffin's claims.

In still a different case, Myers partially rejected a Republican lawsuit in October that targeted voter registrations on grounds similar to Griffin's objections. That ruling did not directly address the merits of the GOP's arguments but instead concluded that the law did not give private entities like the state Republican Party and the RNC the power to sue.