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Removed (Banned)Oct 18
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???

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Oct 18Liked by David Nir, Jeff Singer

Speak your truth king

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author

We're about to delete and ban, but this reply made me laugh out loud.

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I missed all the fun !!🙃

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FLORIDA EARLY VOTE

(As of evening, October 17)

@FlaDems +51,851 over @FloridaGOP

- DEM: 406,759 (42.4%)

- GOP: 355,097 (37.1%)

- OTH: 196,571 20.5%)

Statewide turnout is D+5.3

Dems outperforming GOP in 66 of 67 counties.

https://nitter.poast.org/meyer0656/status/1847030517629440272#m

See county level data here:

https://freshtake.vote/2024G/index.php

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These were Florida's returned mail ballot totals the day early voting opened. (Monday)

2016: 1.2M

2020: 2.5M

2024: 979K (Three days remaining)

This may indicate that the electorate is returning to pre-COVID form.

https://nitter.poast.org/meyer0656/status/1847246075171586480#m

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If memory serves, Florida had alot of GOP mail in voting before COVID. I wonder if the relative decline compared to 2016 (or at least steady state in a state that has gained 10%+ population in the past 8 years) is due to some former GOP mail voters taking up the party's cause and going in person.

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Or not being around to vote anymore? In part because of Covid?

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More or less what most figured would happen, no? 2020 was a one-off

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But later GOP turnout will erase that edge.

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Brandon Meyer reports that Florida’s 1,000,00th vote was cast late this morning. Here is the party split so far:

Democrats: 425,971 (42.49%)

Republicans: 370,206 (36.93%)

Independents: 206,313 (20.58%)

https://nitter.poast.org/pic/orig/media%2FGaLuvomWkAA-ar-.png

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GEORGIA EARLY VOTE:

In-Person:

– 312,260 on Tuesday

– 276,667 on Wednesday

– 255,329 yesterday

Mail Ballots ("Absentee")

– 50,140 accepted (of 50,510 returned)

– 284,519 requested

TOTAL EARLY VOTE:

– 902,517

– 12.6% of registered Georgians have already voted.

https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout

.

UPDATE 2:30pm: 184,181 more Georgians have voted in-person today.

UPDATE 3:30pm: 216,184 more Georgians have voted in-person today.

UPDATE 4:30pm: 247,407 more Georgians have voted in-person today.

UPDATE 5:30pm: 270,424 more Georgians have voted in-person today.

UPDATE 6:30pm: 279,496 more Georgians have voted in-person today.

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Nothing on party breakdown?

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GA does not have party registration.

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You have to go into the demographics in Georgia(the state SOS does a great job with the breakdown)

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Women account for 54.4% of the Early Vote so far. That’s a massive gender gap!

Georgia’s Election Data Hub, also has breakdowns by age and ethnicity, as well as by county. McDonald’s also has this, at the link below.

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-georgia/

Georgia does not report party registration.

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That's not actually that great of a gender gap for Georgia. In 2020 it was 56% women overall, with Election Day voters always being heavily Republican (and male)

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/georgia

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Don’t count on that.

A lot of Rs are voting early. If anything, the already voted pool is exurban and rural heavy. might be slightly pink.

The still outstanding mail votes are very blue though, if they come in.

If anything, the Election Day votes won’t be super red.

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Is GA gone from Harris?

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Honest answer is idk. A lot of older constant voters voting. The only thing I can say is, the already voted pool is a bit red.

Also baked in the fact that over 200k mail votes are still outstanding. Mostly delayed several days from the center counties. So if they returned, would be quite blue there.

A chunk of Eday voters already voted.

And a lot of people who were even in Georgia in 2020 are expected to vote as well (they are currently underrepresented in the already voted pool). No one knows who will turn out in the next couple of weeks.

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Tom Bonier’s TargetSmart has posted his "Modeled Party" analysis of Georgia’s Early Vote, which shows Democrats and Republicans running neck-in-neck. (I understand Bonier’s model is controversial. The data in his analysis currently has about a one-day lag.)

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?calc_type=voteShare&count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=GA&view_type=state

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Any breakdown by county?

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Georgia’s Election Data Hub is one of the best official websites I have seen. Check it out! And, yes, you can pull up a breakdown by county.

https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout

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That’s a very clean website design

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EARLY VOTE – NATIONALLY

As of 9:20am today, at least 10,144,272 people have voted. In-Person Early Votes: 2,728,222 • Mail Ballots Returned: 7,379,775. Early Votes have been cast in 36 states plus DC. These 18 states have at least 100,000 votes:

CA 1,205,058•

FL 988,814•*

GA 897,254•

MI 857,270

VA 815,119

PA 690,891

OH 551,001

IL 432,934

NC 428,170•*

NJ 408,261*

MA 360,707

MN 337,633

MD 326,768•*

WI 283,123

IN 220,686

AZ 172,145

NE 115,501•*

TX 114,810•

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/

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At this point, we should be getting at least 2 million new votes every day until the election.

When does early voting in Texas begin?

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Greetings! Texas offers Early In-Person Voting starting on 21 October, until 1 November.

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Ok, so it starts on Monday.

Call me an optimist, but considering how strong early voting turnout has been in Georgia and North Carolina, I'm hoping to see a million Texans cast ballots on the first day of early voting.

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I hope the majority of those are for Colin Alred. I would love to see Ted Cruz fly back to Cancun, permanently – this time not abandoning his dog, Snowflake.

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And early voting starts tomorrow in Nevada. Enter Jon Ralston!

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He's the f ing man !!

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Update: Wow, things are moving quickly. We’ve passed 11.5 million Early Votes, and there’s a lot left of the day!

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Cook moves PA 10 from lean R to tossup.

https://x.com/Redistrict/status/1847253788815421715

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Hopefully the authoritarian similarity between Perry and Trump will help Harris win support as well in PA 10.

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It would be weird if people are pissed off at a henchman of 1/6 for 1/6 and not the leader of it.

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NORTH CAROLINA EARLY VOTE

Yesterday, a total of 353,036 people cast Early In-Person Votes yesterday. So far, 75,134 Mail Ballots have been returned.

Party split: 36.4% Democrats, 33.4% Republicans, 30.2% Independents

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-north-carolina/

"NC in-person early voting started yesterday and we're getting first statistics this morning. Typically ~90% of NC's early vote is in-person. The party reg appears to be where we might expect if NC is to be competitive with a slight reg Dem lead."

– Michael McDonald

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I'm really interested to see how the Independents are voting in NC. I'd imagine a sizable portion of them (not sure about an exact percentage) have voted for Harris.

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Oct 18Liked by Jeff Singer

Congrats on your blog being old enough to drink!

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We’ll have to do the drinking on behalf of The DownBallot. Tonight I’ll raise a shot of Balvenie and toast this excellent, now-legal endeavor!

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Thursday's PA Mail-In Ballot Update is in.

28,390 new requests, R+524. Overall request advantage now down to D+522,690 (lowest since 10/4)

99,243 ballot returns, D+23,134. Overall ballot advantage now D+294,305. Under 100k short of the popular firewall

Total Requests:

D - 1,046,972 (58.59%)

R - 524,282 (29.34%)

O - 215,545 (12.06%)

Total - 1,786,799

Total Returns:

D - 506,320 (48.36% return rate)

R - 212,015 (40.44%)

O - 73,469 (34.09%)

Total - 791,804

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Nice! That’s an increase in the Democratic "Firewall" of about 23,000 since yesterday. Slowing down since we saw 30k per day, but still strong!

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I've been expecting more updates like yesterday but it looks like everyday is going to be random. The next three Monday updates are going to be HUGE. One thing still gives potential to massive updates: Each of the six large counties still have at least 40% of their Dem requests left.

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The 390k firewall has a chance to be hit late next week, while my person firewall of 450k will probably be hit a week before Election Day. A few of the big counties have a little over half their requests in but still a lot of room to grow plus more satellite drop-off locations open for the weekend tomorrow. The medium-sized counties I talked about yesterday continue to lag behind: Erie & Westmoreland are finally starting to report in bulk but Luzerne is still way, way, WAY behind. Those three counties combined are D+32k request advantage.

Some fun news to end the update: At least one GOP mail-in ballot includes a vote for Harris, from former GOP Congressman Charlie Dent.

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/17/charlie-dent-2024-republicans-trump-harris

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Good for Dent

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On a related note, Luzerne had been resisting allowing for ballot drop boxes but finally relented on Oct. 15.

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Not having drop boxes in Luzerne is self defeating for the Republicans in charge. It's one of the more populated Republican strongholds in the state

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But the mail-in requests are D+11k. That's why.

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But it's just stupid; and probably pisses off the Republicans in the county who use the EV\VBM systems

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Where do you get the popular firewall of 390K?

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I got it from Joshua Smithley aka @blockedfreq on the app formerly known as Twitter. Whether he came up with it or not & how it became so popular, I don't know. My 450k isn't really based on anything.

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Xitter. (The pronunciation is left as an exercise for the reader.)

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I think the correct pronunciation is Xi as in Jinping.

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The firewall target in Pennsylvania has always been a bit of a moving target with uncertain magnitude.

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I'm not really sure what to make of most of the early vote data we're seeing. By all accounts the GOP is pushing early/mail voting in contrast to 2020 when they discouraged it, and Dems are less dead set on early/mail voting than they were during the pandemic. But how big is the impact of these shifts? It makes it impossible to try to use the early vote data as a gauge of enthusiasm. I suppose early voting data could in some cases be an indicator of an eventual collapse in turnout in an area, but we don't seem to be seeing that anywhere.

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It's really to give a sense of calm to Democrats. It's looking like 2024 mail-in ballots are going to be about 25% of 2020 turnout. The current theory is that turnout is going to be lower this year but not 2016 low. If Democrats have 450k net ballot lead (net vote lead will be higher) going into Election Day with 28% of ballots already cast, it will calm those who pay attention.

As far as GOP pushing mail-in voting, that's only been happening for the past three weeks. Democrats started with an almost 480k request lead & it has been as high as 528.3k this week. This week was the GOP's best week in requests ever & still only "won" the week by 5,145 requests. They also closed the returned gap this week...from 7.99% to 7.93%.

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I may be off base, but to me the most interesting piece of PA early voting data is the return rates. The higher Dem return rate among the people who requested ballots suggests that Dems may be more enthusiastic this year, especially since they tend to be younger than Rs and as such might be less likely to vote early all else equal. I'd expect indies to have the lowest return rate, because they skew so young.

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Just a question and thank you for the numbers.

Does the firewall include accounting for dems who may vote rep or vice versa and indies? Or is this strictly based on the total Dem share?

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It's just a raw number that speculates a huge percentage of Democratic voters vote for their party and vice versa Republican(an extrapolation would be used to average in the independent vote; which it's all kind of a crapshoot); right now, I'd rather be us than them

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That’s a better increase than yesterday. Good. I’m happy with where we’re at in PA, at least so far

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I'm pretty certain that if we take PA and NC, we're winning this election.

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PA + NC + any other swing state other than NV = Harris win

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Yes. But I'd be very, very surprised if VP Harris wins NC. I just don't see it.

Think we'll win at least Gov/AG/Education, so we'll avoid the Darkest Timeline.

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What about LG? Do you think Rachel Hunt pulls it off?

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I am concerned at how "under the radar" her campaign has been. Seen lots of Jeff Jackson ads, but none for Ms. Hunt. Heck, my retired mother (who I kid about being "mad about politics on the internet" all day) didn't even know she was Jim Hunt's daughter.

Could also see the voters who have broken sharply for Josh Stein voting GOP for LG as a "check" - not knowing much about either candidate seems likely to default to that result.

I'd say that's a true 50/50, much like the Supreme Court seat.

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Harris is getting decent polling out of NC; Robinson is a clown, and Cooper is relatively popular; I figure that gives you a margin of error race and with a ground game run by the NCDP and it's coordinated campaign, you get close or actually win(basically;GOTV, GOTV, GOTV, and GOTV !)

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If we give any credence whatsoever to public polls, NC seems very close, so a win by either candidate would not be an upset.

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I respectfully disagree. Given that North Carolina has only gone Democratic twice for President from 1968 onward, it would be considered somewhat of an upset if Harris pulled it off (and I hope she does).

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If so, a very slight one. NC is at most Tilt-R now.

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A New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer poll found Harris winning 12% of Republicans in Pennsylvania.

https://nitter.poast.org/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1847108612839076264#m

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Joshua Smithley has updated his firewall calculation (based on my understanding): Combining Democrats & 40% of Other ballots (this assumes that the Other split is 70D-30R like other elections) and comparing THAT sum to Republican ballots. That new figure is D&O+500k.

Using those parameters, the new requests advantage is D&O+608,908 and the returns advantage is D&O+323,693. We're 64.73% of the way to the new firewall.

I want to just say I disagree with this theory. I don't think that 70-30 split is a reliable metric to work with. And even if I DID agree with the theory, that firewall is 50k too low.

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Honestly I’d prefer just sticking to a D+ firewall since that’s an easier number to reliably forecast than depending on the 70/30 split

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My thoughts exactly.

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Banking on winning indies 2:1 is sketchy. I wouldn't count on that in my math

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I would think you needed to know the demographics of the indy's(then maybe you can get a better assumption)

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Do you happen to know if there is a planned 'Souls to the Polls' in Pennsylvania for EV; most likely next weekend??

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Oct 18Liked by David Nir

I'm not loving the polls right now - seems to be a bit of a drip-drip-drip inching to the right across multiple modes. FiveThirtyEight's forecast will probably be at 50/50 within a day or two.

That said, I go look at the details and I see extremely, nearly implausibly, R-favorable electorates. Take Ipsos/Reuters, most recent poll linked below. It has Harris +3 among likely voters. But she is +91 among Ds, -82 among Rs, and +9 among Is. How is this possible? It's possible if your sample of likely voters is somewhere between R+3 and R+4 (least-squares regression indicates about R+3.3).

Similarly, that Fox News poll that had Trump +2 nationwide has Harris +85 among Ds, -87 among Rs, and +9 among Is. Again, least-squares regression indicates an R+3.1 composition of the likely electorate, and indeed their writeup says it's R+3.

This seems a little hard for me to buy. I don't know why you'd assume it's a 2014 electorate. If it is, I agree we're in deep trouble, but it just doesn't seem likely. It feels to me like 2020, where partisan samples favored the out party by a lot (D+5, D+6, etc.) and we ended up with a D+1 electorate instead. If Harris out-performs the polls by 3-4 points, like Trump did in 2020, this might be why.

Furthermore, a number of other polls that have moved right seem to mostly be moving right because of sample. Emerson two weeks ago had a D+1.6 sample with Harris +1.4. Today they have a D+0.1 sample with Harris +0.3.

(Ipsos link: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/Reuters%20Ipsos%20Core%20Political%2010%2016%202024%20PDF.pdf.

Fox link:

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/10/fox_october-11-14-2024_national_cross-tabs_october-16-release.pdf)

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Many bad pollsters have taken Steve Bannon’s advice to heart: "Flood the zone with shit." All too many pollsters are really not in the business of conscientious polling, but instead have found an extremely cost-effective way to impact the media narrative. There’s now a massive flood of bad polls, mostly of swing states. A clear objective is to impact the polling averages and create the illusion that Trump is winning.

Unfortunately, all the bad-faith polling also creates a very fertile ground for the guaranteed claims of "Election fraud!" and "Stolen election!" after Trump loses.

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If it were just the red-wavey pollsters, the Emersons of the world, I'd agree that this is what's going on. But Ipsos/Reuters aren't partisan, and in the past Fox hasn't been partisan in its polling either (though that R+3, plus the release timed to ambush Harris live, makes me wonder). I think there's something fundamentally weird right now. I just don't quite know what it is. Maybe it's that the electorate really will be R+3, but I'm suspicious.

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There may well be something going on, such as some Republicans "returning home". And I share your impression that Fox commissions high-quality polls. But if you look at the makeup of the recent wave of swing-state polls, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that much of the narrative is manufactured.

It’s worth noting that bad pollsters did exactly the same in 2022, creating the illusion of a "Red Wave" that never materialized. In fact, a chorus of pundits were mocking Simon Rosenberg, Tom Bonier, Michael McDonald, Jennifer Rubin and a few others that were insisting: "There may be a Red Wave coming, but so far we see no signs of that."

Nate Silver went so far as to accuse Simon Rosenberg of "Smoking Hopium!" That’s how the Hopium Chronicles were born. :)

https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/

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Suggestion: Look very closely at the assumptions built into each good-faith pollster’s Likely Voter model. My impression is that they have tweaked their model to account for Trump’s overperforming the polls in 2016 and again in 2020 – but that they have failed to adjust for the post-Dobbs reality. Consider:

– Democrats overperformed in the 2022 Midterm Elections

– Democrats have overperformed in every Special Election, post-Dobbs

– Trump underperformed the polls in almost every single Republican primary.

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I’d rather they tweak their model to account for their misses in 2016/20 than the other way around, to be sure

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I would hope they already had tweaked their model to account for that but recent tweaks could be the cause. I think there is also a very good chance that they’re not accounting for (potentially) new Harris voters. The difference between her and Biden is so stark, that along with Dobbs I fully expect there to be a significant number of new women voters, young voters, and voters of color. There is data from new voter registrations to support that, but if pollsters are modeling based on the 2020 electorate those people will not be included.

I have to also consider that may be bias or wishful thinking, but there is enough evidence, both solid and anecdotal, that I would be more surprised by the polls underestimating Harris by a few points than Trump. It’s been stated on here multiple times that Trump has a hard ceiling of 46-47%. The only way he gets to 49-51% which is the number in a couple of polls today is if Dem enthusiasm craters. There is absolutely zero indication that will happen, and indeed every sign points to the opposite.

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" I think there is also a very good chance that they’re not accounting for (potentially) new Harris voters."

A modest example:

A New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer poll found Harris winning 12% of Republicans in Pennsylvania.

https://nitter.poast.org/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1847108612839076264#m

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Parties typically usually only win about 4-5% of other-partisans, no?

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Trump's "hard ceiling" of 47% is an article of faith, leaning far too heavily into past performance and ignoring the significant coalitional dynamism that's been playing out in the last decade.

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I usually think of floors and ceilings in terms of absolute numbers of voters, not shares of the electorate. If turnout collapses for one party, the other party can break through its supposed ceiling of the vote share even if its own turnout isn't that special.

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That’s a fair point, but I don’t believe for a second that the majority of American’s support him. As sacman701 states below, him getting a higher percentage than that is heavily dependent on turnout collapsing on the Democratic side. I’ll concede that the 47% ceiling is based on slim to limited evidence, but that compares pretty well to the complete lack of evidence that he has majority support.

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what makes it a poor argument, too, is easy: 47% of what electorate? If GOP turnout craters he’s not getting 47. If D turnout craters he probably beats that number. It’s entirely relative

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It could be that pollsters are now getting actual voting data from early/mail in voting and its showing an R leaning year.

I often think - I basically live in a bubble with very little true interaction with how a good chunk of the country thinks.

But it could very well be that at the end of the day - the price of milk and rent and gas is just too high for the infrequent voter to ignore. Or that alot of the country is just too racist and misogynist. Or just too anti-California liberal - maybe those "Kamala saying in her own words how proud she is that she approved money for murderers to get trans surgery" ads are working.

Or that the softness in enthusiasm among infrequent Dem voters that we saw clearly when Biden was the candidate never really went away and now that the Harris announcement/Walz announcement/DNC/debate bounces have receded, we are in not so great shape.

Or just enough of all of the above for Trump to win. We will have to see.

All I can say is - if Trump wins and the GOP takes the house and senate it will prove that basically nothing matters in national politics but vibes. Not fundraising or organization or candidate quality or even ideology.

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What matters is information ecosystems. Which create vibes.

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That's exactly how Glenn Youngkin got elected Governor here in Virginia. He managed to get father of five Terry McAuliffe perceived as "anti parent" and exit polls indicated that voters thought Youngkin, not McAuliffe was the "moderate." Not to mention the hard feelings that McAuliffe even ran in the race to begin with - Virginia is the one state in the USA where Governors are not permitted to serve consecutive terms - NEVER went away. Many "progressives" and African American voters wanted an African American nominee for Governor because "our turn" and felt that McAuliffe's run violated the "spirit of the law" I described above. I knew McAuliffe was in trouble when he let Youngkin beat him to the punch about repealing the grocery tax (Virginia is a VERY anti tax state) and when there were Democrats claiming that the law I described above meant that Governors could only serve one term. In short, vibes absolutely matter and we do ourselves no favors by pretending otherwise.

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I would say perceived ideology matters. Not actual ideology. Reagan was VERY right wing but because he looked good on television, he wasn't seen as such.

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Trump is almost anti-ideological, and if he switches on almost anything his voters will come along with him.

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If he switched on choice, they wouldn't. The Republican Party remains hardline socially conservative.

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He can switch on almost anything *that isn't what his voters actually care most about,* which is bigotry in support of a rigorously enforced social order. They're extremely ideological - they just don't actually care very much about traditionally Republican-coded policies of low taxes and pro-business policies. They care about people behaving the "correct way" and obeying their given place in the hierarchy.

Of course, because that's exactly who Trump is at his core, he won't be switching.

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The oddest thing about it is they’re modeling these Republican leaning electorates while simultaneously showing Democratic enthusiasm to be fairly high.

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I wonder if it's just that they didn't change their models after Biden left the race? Which, I can't totally blame them if that's the case. Like, if you think people didn't like Biden because they were unhappy about the economy and other issues, then you should keep your models favoring a conservative electorate. But if it was just a lack of enthusiasm that has flipped, you'll get the wrong electorate. It sure doesn't seem like Dems are suffering from a lack of enthusiasm.

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That’s actually not a terrible theory

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I like the idea. Nice thought. Here's another variation: what if they changed them, but changed them during the sugar high of the replacement/DNC when response bias was favoring Ds, so they had to deflate the D share a bit? Would produce similar results.

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Oct 18·edited Oct 18

Most of the polls results seem to be based on modeling the electorate, and I’m glad they’re publishing their numbers no matter what they are. Modeling an electorate in this era is difficult.

I agree that an R+3 electorate seems… unlikely, as of right now. Maybe I’m wrong! But that Emerson example you give seems to show that all that slide is almost 1-1 correlated with their assumed electorate model and that leads me to my prior that the race remains static and narrow, as it has more or less since Labor Day

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This is a big reason why I think Harris will outperform the polls. This country obviously isn't R+3 (there have been more Ds than Rs in America for most of my life [which is why Rs have only won the popular vote once during it]), and there's no reason to believe the electorate will have more Rs than Ds. I'm expecting a roughly D+1 electorate, about the same as 2020, and that the results will reflect that (and therefore Harris will outperform any polls that use an R+3 electorate).

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Are they weighting by recalled 2020 vote? If so, that will likely skew the weighted sample towards Republicans, since people tend to misremember voting for the winning candidate (Biden).

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Some of them are, yes. Ipsos/Reuters is, for example. I just looked at the most recent YouGov/Economist, where they weight on it, and I see the same pattern (Harris +93 among Ds, -82 among Rs, +3 among Is, but only +3 overall, meaning a roughly R+2 sample).

Doesn't explain Fox, but, well, Fox.

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Good catch. Of course self-reported party ID is fluid, but nothing has happened over the last 4 years that would cause a big shift toward the GOP. The ABC exit poll for the 2022 midterm showed an R+3 electorate. This cycle, we have pundit ratings and campaigns' spending patterns both suggesting an environment much closer to 2020 (when exit polls showed a D+1 electorate) than to 2022. At worst, I would expect an R+1 electorate, and my best guess would be dead even but with Dems doing slightly better among indies than in the past because young voters tend to register indie.

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author

Very thoughtful comment.

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Thanks, that's very kind of you!

And now that I'm noticing this pattern, I'm seeing it everywhere. YouGov, Harris +3, R+2 sample. Scott Rasmussen (RMG), Harris +1, R+3 sample (last week was Harris +3 in an R+1 sample).

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Oct 18·edited Oct 18

AZ-2: Yesterday’s Inside Elections podcast adds a bit to the poll discussed yesterday showing this race tied. Neither candidate is very well known and the undecided voters "really don't like Eli Crane. The undecided voters, well, they don't really know him, but the ones who do know him don't like him at all.”

"Kari Lake's overall image in this [district] is 43 favorable, 54% unfavorable. So everybody knows who she is, and she is not popular. Among undecided voters in the congressional race, [she] has 24% favorable, 71% unfavorable.”

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In a district of that makeup; put a fork in Keri Lake, she's done !

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MI-08: Internal R poll has the race tied for Congress and President in this R+1 district: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/18/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/michigan-internal-poll-paul-junge-00184350

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Biden +2.1 in 2020.

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NM early vote

democratic firewall is growing, both in number and in percentage

10/15 total early votes 50,109 dem firewall 4,908 (10%)

10/16 total early votes 69,937 dem firewall 9,280 (13%)

10/17 total early votes 87,798 dem firewall 13,521 (15%)

10/18 total early votes 104,811 dem firewall 17,191 (16%)

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I've never heard of the firewall in NM. What's the number we need there??

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There is one congressional race there that might be somewhat competitive in a non presidential year; there's really nothing to see here on the federal level(I know nothing of the state\local races but I have to believe that the Democrats are in decent enough shape)

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On a bad night I could see a loss in NM-02 but it's probably at least Lean D at this point with the rematch and Harris probably at least narrowly winning there.

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Agreed; Larry Sabato has it Lean D

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To me New Mexico is the dog that isn't barking about a Latino GOP shift this year. Biden won by a little less than 9 in 2020. If there were really a big red shift among Hispanics, the presidential and Senate races would probably be at least fringe competitive, and Vasquez likely toast after winning by less than 1 in 2022. Instead he seems to be comfortably ahead, and otherwise there isn't a peep out of the state.

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Paywalled. Could you summarize?

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If Tester still pulls this off, it's not going to be ANYTHING other than 49% - 47% or 49% - 48% and if it happens, I'll be celebrating all the way up until 2030 when the seat is up again.

Sheehy is truly terrible Tim and badly want him taken down, or Montana will get 0 attention politically for the rest of eternity and will truly be twinning it with their neighbor Idaho, as there will be no difference between them politically in that awful scenario!! 💙🇺🇲

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You mean getting no attention from serious Democratic candidates, I think.

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Former Minnesota Congressman Rick Nolan has passed away.

https://www.startribune.com/rick-nolan-former-northern-minnesota-congressman-has-died/601164338

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Very sorry to hear this. Ol' Landslide Rick held onto that seat far longer than anyone else would have.

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Two very impressive wins, especially in 2016.

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Oct 18·edited Oct 18

Also important to note that Nolan's time in the House serving in MN-08 is not the first time he was in the House.

He served in the then-MN-06 Congressional District from 1975-1981 and at a much younger age. He served during the years of Presidents Ford and Carter and left before President Reagan took office.

Thank you, Nolan for your service to this country.

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RIP. He was 80, which doesn't seem that old to me now.

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What’s everyone’s favorite NFL Team? Mine is Washington.

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Look at my username. 'Nuff said.

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NE is having a tough year but I like their backup QB Joe Milton.

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"Here We Go, Steelers! HERE WE GO!"

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Manchester City.

Oh, snap! Wrong league, wrong sport, wrong continent.

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Better them than Manchester United. Proud Kopite here (thanks to The Beatles and the Red Sox)!

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Hate United !! Love the Bucs !!(credit the Glazers, they've come through big time with Hurricane aid over the years)

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I have multiple DeBruyne authentic jerseys(my favorite is the UEFA Champions League, the year they finally won it all !!); did you hear the news that Oasis is touring next year?(that's if the brothers don't have another fist fight between now and then)

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Arsenal is my favorite for me in the PL and St. Louis City SC in the MLS.

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For futbol, it is Everton. As I often say, "supporting Everton is really just a creative way of hating myself."

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Now, now – it’s not all bad. Everton is in 16th place. Out of 20 teams. And they did manage one win and one draw during their last five game, with only three losses...

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I'll say one thing for Everton: they're the only team outside the big 6 that has been able to stay in the Premier League since its founding without ever being relegated.

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Unfortunately for Everton, this may be the year of relegation; they are having an awful start to the season

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Seahawks baby

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Raiders since about 1979. They're up to their old tricks again in front of crowds that mostly support the visiting team.

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I love that stadium !

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So do most opponents, except maybe the Chargers.

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Lmao😂

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Way back when, in the Land of Oaks?

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Tampa Bay Bucs

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Da Bears

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Steelers are my first favorite, and the Bears are my 2nd favorite.

The Rams were my favorite until Missouri-born Stan Kroenke stabbed St. Louis and the loyal Rams fans who endured dross after dross in the post-GSOT era in the back by moving to LA while claiming he wanted to stay in STL.

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Denver Broncos (though I dislike Sean Payton)

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You live in CO?

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Nope. Born in WY (Dad was in Air Force), formative years in Charlotte, NC. But I've been a rabid Broncos fan since age 2/1975 season. Maybe I liked the colour scheme, maybe because it was "the horsey team." But it stuck.

Two of my adult children live in Boulder now, and I am the only member of the family not to have attended a game in Mile High Stadium.

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I prefer college ball, hence the screen name.

But NFL, nominally my hometown Minnesota Vikings, but I don't watch the pro game the way I do the college game.

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A propos the discussion of polling in this thread:

If Gallup is right, I don't see how the Democrats will win this election, but this is Gallup we're talking about; https://politicalwire.com/2024/10/18/majority-feel-worse-off-than-four-years-ago/

52% worse off, 39% better off, 8% about the same. And to these weirdos, Covid never existed...

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The scary reality is that basically every Presidential election boils down to that fundamental. We're testing that theory to the absolute limit with this year's opposition party candidate, but I'm beginning to think that absolutely anybody could win if they were nominated against an incumbent party when more than half the country thinks they're worse off than they were four years ago.

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The majority of Americans thought we were on the "wrong track" in 2012. It didn't result in Mitt Romney becoming President. All those "it's 1980 all over again" predictions went out the window. Also I believe Gallup stopped polling after 2012 because they botched that election badly.

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Do you know the "worse than four years ago" number from 2012? And how it compared to the "better than...." number? I should clarify my comment to say that any double-digit spread between "worse" and "better" numbers is the danger zone rather than generically "above 50%".

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That the “better off” figure was 56% in 2020 beggars belief and makes me question the efficacy of the poll in general

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I'm curious how that answer breaks down according to what people want to happen. Even though it isn't the same I expect we would see huge overlap between this question and right track / wrong track questions.

It's not hard to imagine a young woman answering that she's worse off than four years ago, because four years ago she still had a court protected right to abortion. Someone answering that way isn't going to vote republican. An investment banker could answer that they're better off than four years ago because the stock market is doing a lot better, but that doesn't mean they're in our camp either.

How much is this question being changed by hardening partisanship? How much of the answer is a result of that partisanship? Democratic voters are consistently more willing to be critical of democratic administrations than republicans of republican administrations, for better or worse.

It's not an encouraging result but I find it so hard to make sense of the data available today that I don't really know what to make of it.

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That's exactly the point. And there are some so called leftists who point out that "Roe v Wade got overturned under Biden."

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I feel that I am worse off because of SCOTUS rulings, the lack of accountability for Trump, the fact that Trump still can play a role in politics, and the notion that the MSM has become Trump whisperers with bothsiderisms and sane washing. That said, I will happily vote for VP Harris,

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Just to point out: 4 years ago, Trump was in office. He's not in office now. So that's one obvious way that we're better off now. Plus, COVID was out of control 4 years ago. That's a big one!

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I'm sort of worse off than I was four years ago, but none of that has anything to do with Harris or Biden. So, I would be one of those 52% and still obviously voting for Harris.

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That's what I think also; the question is meaningless in the age of Trump imo

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Gallup has D+3 in voter party ID.. Many polls are modeling a R+3 election. We will see what happens

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I thought it was like D+4?

Or was that Pee?

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Imo this electorate is going to be D+2-3

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Oct 18·edited Oct 19

Context is important here:

During 1992, there was a recession which lasted until 1993. It was short but significant. President George HW Bush was also aloof and not proactive in working to improve the economy. Clinton capitalized on this and won by showing his ability to empathize with voters.

By contrast:

1) We had a pandemic-induced downturn, which I'd call a short depression (very similar to what happened during the Spanish Flu) that had a quick recovery and months of healthy jobs being added for years.

2) People are still very much price sensitive these days. If the argument is that voters are worse off than they were four years ago, it's probably because of finances, ability to save and in direct correlation with inflation.

3) A sitting president resigning for the VP to run her own campaign months ahead of the election is historic. Kamala Harris still has capital in a way Biden didn't have.

Gallup is also not Professor Allan Lichtman, who has predicted Kamala Harris will win based on his keys methodology that digs more into what a polling firm like Gallup does. So Gallup's polling essentially predicted a Clinton win in 1992? Lichtman predicted a win for Clinton in 1992 as well.

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I don't respect Lichtman. I think his methodology is subjective and changes a lot. I want to believe this year, but I just don't.

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Oct 19·edited Oct 19

How is it subjective? I'd say Lichtman has a good gauge at things from multiple variables and doesn't exactly use subjective methodology with his keys. If that was the case, he'd be biased towards Democrats all the time.

If there are facts that you argue he's wrong at, then share them.

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Tipped, but isn't his keys method very subjective?

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Oct 19·edited Oct 19

From my standpoint, not as subjective as you think. Lichtman looks at multiple variables affecting the presidential race.

I've come to respect his analysis because frankly, polling firms don't look at multiple variables. They only focus on polling data methodology, which lends only insight as it relates to voter sentiment. Which can help getting an understanding on what is going on in the minds of voters.

However, polls change. The macroeconomic environment on the other hand isn't something polls always have the best ability to analyze, unless there are specific questions relating to that topic.

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Oct 19·edited Oct 19

FYI, for those reading this, I re-edited my comment for clarity. I'm not trying to be biased towards Lichtman and his keys methodology.

However, Lichtman is one of the few professors and analysts out there who actually looks at multiple variables affecting the political environment as it relates to the presidential race and who could possibly win. If there are flaws, fine. As it relates to the presidential race the one thing Lichtman may not be the best at doing is predicting exact turnout.

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