Morning Digest: The Downballot's early guide to the top races for governor this cycle

We preview 16 key contests that will determine how power is wielded in America

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is up for a new term in 2026 as leader of this pivotal swing state (credit: Josh Shapiro Facebook)

Leading Off

Governors

State politics will soon be back with a vengeance, with no fewer than 38 different states holding races for governor over the coming election cycle. That's a huge upswing compared to the previous two years, when just 14 governorships were up—part of a familiar pattern that dates back decades.

As they did with considerable success six years ago, Democrats will seek to invest in state-level races in the hopes of curbing Donald Trump's influence, with the added motivation this time of protecting and restoring abortion rights. And with Congress unlikely to advance major legislative accomplishments, states will once again find themselves at the center of new policy initiatives.

To help you get your bearings ahead of what will be another hard-fought election, we've put together short previews of the most important gubernatorial battlegrounds of the 2025 and 2026 elections, many of which will feature open seats thanks to term limits.

At this early date, we know that some of these contests won't pan out, while others will burst onto the radar much later. In addition to the states discussed in detail below, we'll also be keeping an eye on the governorships in Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Kansas, and Rhode Island, which are all held by Democrats, as well as those in Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, and Vermont, which are in Republican hands.

We'll be covering all of these races—and many more—very closely over the next two years precisely so that we can keep you informed of every important development that will help determine who wields power in America.

Alaska

Mike Dunleavy (R) - OPEN

Alaska is on track to hold its first open race for governor since 2002, though that could yet change if Dunleavy gets beamed up to the Trump administration. But even if Dunleavy's lieutenant governor, fellow Republican Nancy Dahlstrom, takes his spot, Alaska's unique top-four primary and ranked-choice general election means we'll almost certainly see a competitive race, possibly with a viable independent candidate in the mix.

Arizona

Katie Hobbs (D)

After Hobbs' narrow upset victory in the last midterms, the GOP is eager to reclaim a post they'd won in the previous three elections, and Trump's 6-point improvement compared to 2020 has them enthused. But once again, the question for Republicans is whether they can nominate a candidate capable of winning statewide, or whether they put forth yet another deeply flawed extremist.

With far-right activist/troll Charlie Kirk reportedly mooting the race, Hobbs could get lucky once again. While she hasn't confirmed her reelection plans, it's exceedingly unlikely she wouldn't seek another term, though she could face a potentially damaging intra-party challenge from Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, a fellow Democrat.

California

Gavin Newsom (D) - OPEN

California's unusual top-two primary adds some extra unpredictability to the race to replace Newsom as leader of the nation's largest state. The Golden State's setup could allow a pair of Democrats could advance to the general election, something that's happened twice in Senate races but never in a gubernatorial contest. There's also a chance―albeit a much smaller one―that two Republicans could move forward and score an automatic pickup despite California's dark-blue tilt.

A host of heavyweight Democrats are already running or considering bids, but one potential name could upend everything: Kamala Harris, who's reportedly keeping her options open. Republicans, meanwhile, are hoping that frustration with the status quo after years of Democratic governance might finally give them an opening. However, the party has few, if any, elected officials who have demonstrated that they can win enough crossover support while still keeping the base satisfied.

Georgia

Brian Kemp (R) - OPEN

Democrats ended their long Georgia drought with a trio of successful Senate races over the last few years, but the governorship remains elusive. An open seat, however, presents new opportunities, though two of the party's most notable potential candidates, Stacey Abrams and Jason Carter, have lost bids in the past. One fresh face, though, belongs to Rep. Lucy McBath, who's now represented almost 20% of the state thanks to repeated GOP gerrymandering.

Republicans, meanwhile, will likely host another showdown where the main fissure is loyalty to Trump. One major contender, Attorney General Chris Carr, is already running; at times, he's tried to keep some distance from the MAGA movement, while at others, he's tried to cozy back up. Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, however, is a loud and proud Trumper who will likely run to represent the far-right pole of the party.

Maine

Janet Mills (D) - OPEN

Do Democrats need to nominate a rural moderate, like Rep. Jared Golden, to hold Maine's governorship, or can a progressive from Portland get the job done? That question is likely to loom over the primary, which has yet to take shape, though several names (like Golden's) have begun circulating. The Republican field has been even slower to form.

Maine has also regularly seen third-party candidates take a sizable chunk of the vote in gubernatorial elections and even win on three occasions over the last half-century. The state's ranked-choice law, however, does not apply to general elections for governor, so an independent could have a real impact even if they fall short of victory. Republicans in particular may benefit in such a scenario: The GOP hasn't won an outright majority in a race for governor since 1962, while Mills topped 50% both times she ran.

Michigan

Gretchen Whitmer (D) - OPEN

Both parties are preparing for crowded primaries ahead of an open-seat race in one of the nation's most important swing states.

Some of the top names to watch on the Democratic side are Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who recently announced that he won't seek reelection next year to his current post, as well as Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist. Many others are also eyeing the contest as Democrats aim to win their third gubernatorial race in a row, though major contenders have yet to jump in.

The Republican side also remains undefined. Conservative commentator Tudor Dixon, who lost to Whitmer in a 54-44 drubbing in 2022, has shown interest in a second bid. Rep. John James, who is one of the state GOP's biggest stars, has also attracted attention, though he's yet to say anything about his plans.

Minnesota

Tim Walz (D)

Walz is one of just two incumbents on this list who could run for a third term, though whether he wants to after a bruising vice-presidential campaign is a question he hasn't yet addressed.

We may not see the field develop much until he does, though Democrats' loss of full control over the legislature last month will largely halt any hopes Walz might have of building on his achievements in the final two years of his current term. That could in turn open the door for a new generation of leaders to run in 2026, when the entire legislature will be up for grabs again.

Nevada

Joe Lombardo (R)

In the previous midterms, Lombardo was the lone Republican who managed to flip a governorship anywhere in the nation, with a very narrow victory over the Democratic incumbent, Steve Sisolak. Lombardo can expect another competitive fight as he tries to hang on to his post in swingy Nevada. While Trump's victory last month made him the first Republican to secure the Silver State's electoral votes in two decades, Democrats retain a deep bench.

New Hampshire

Kelly Ayotte (R)

Ayotte just won the race to replace retiring Gov. Chris Sununu, a fellow Republican, but she has little time to get comfortable in office. New Hampshire is one of the just two states in the nation that elects its governors to two-year terms, along with neighboring Vermont, where GOP Gov. Phil Scott just easily secured a fifth term.

But Ayotte's 54-44 victory, which came even as Harris was carrying the Granite State, may deter strong Democrats from taking her on. History is also on her side. Since the 1920s, only one governor has been denied a second term: Republican Craig Benson, who narrowly lost in 2004.

New Jersey

Phil Murphy (D) - OPEN

New Jersey, along with Virginia, is one of just two states that will hold elections next year, and after a shockingly narrow escape for Murphy in 2021 as well as Trump's major gains in the state this year, Democrats cannot take the race for granted.

With the race less than a year away, a large field of major names has already coalesced on both sides. For Democrats, the roster includes Reps. Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill as well as two mayors, Newark's Rask Baraka and Jersey City's Steven Fulop. Also running are former state Senate President Steve Sweeney and Sean Spiller, who heads the New Jersey Education Association, a powerful teachers' union.

Republicans have a four-way battle, headlined by former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, who held Murphy to a 51-48 win three years ago. He'll face conservative radio host Bill Spadea, former state Sen. Ed Durr, and state Sen. Jon Bramnick, the most moderate of the bunch. A major difference between this race and the last, though, is Trump's return. When he was last in office, Murphy cruised to a 56-42 blowout in his first race in 2017.

New Mexico

Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) - OPEN

Both parties start with wide-open primaries in a state that Harris took 52-46 last month. Democrats control every statewide office, all three U.S. House seats, and both chambers of the legislature, which gives them a massive bench to choose from. Republicans, however, held the governorship for two consecutive terms just prior to Lujan Grisham's ascension, and the state's blue lean is a soft one at best.

New York

Kathy Hochul (D)

New York's sharp shift to the right in recent years—Trump's performance was the best by a Republican candidate for president since 1988, and Hochul survived a harrowing scare two years ago—has the GOP optimistic they can finally win their first statewide race since 2002. Rep. Mike Lawler, who just won an expensive reelection battle on swingy turf, is probably their top option and appears poised to run.

Hochul, meanwhile, has said she'll run once more. However, she may not even be her party's nominee again, after a seemingly endless series of blunders that have infuriated key stakeholders, like her about-face on congestion pricing in New York City. Geography compounds Hochul's difficulties: A strong challenger is most likely to hail from the city, as do most primary voters. The governor's base in the Buffalo area, by contrast, is far smaller.

Oregon

Tina Kotek (D)

Democrats have led Oregon ever since the state's last Republican governor, the late Victor Atiyeh, left office in 1987. The GOP is hoping that voters in this blue state want change—and they came close in 2022, with Kotek scraping out a 47-44 win—but no major names have surfaced for them yet. Kotek has not confirmed whether she'll seek a second term, though it would be surprising if she did not.

Pennsylvania

Josh Shapiro (D)

Shapiro has yet to say whether he'll run for another term, but the ambitious Democrat, who came close to serving as Harris' running mate, is certain to do so. His opponent in 2022 was so demented that national Republicans abandoned the race, which ended in a blowout. As they have elsewhere, the GOP has struggled with recruiting acceptable candidates in Pennsylvania, though they finally overcame that problem in this year's Senate race. Shapiro will still be a tough out no matter who they get, though.

Virginia

Glenn Youngkin (R) - OPEN

The battle lines are all but drawn in the race to succeed Youngkin, which will be one of the marquee contests of 2025. Top-tier Republicans have all deferred to Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears while Democrats have largely rallied around outgoing Rep. Abigail Spanberger, though one of her House colleagues, Bobby Scott, could make an unlikely late entry.

Republicans have typically fared better in Virginia's off-year elections than they have in even-numbered years, though this contest will serve as an early test of whether Trump will once again act as a drag on GOP candidates down-ticket when he's back in the White House. At the start of Trump's first term in 2017, Ralph Northam won the governor's race by 9 points, which was the strongest Democratic performance in decades.

Wisconsin

Tony Evers (D)

Like Walz in Minnesota, Evers could seek a third term in 2026, though whether or not he does, Wisconsin will host another barnburner—as it always does. Another major race is also acting as a freeze on the field: April's pivotal election for the state Supreme Court, which will determine whether liberals retain their narrow majority.

At least one major candidate, Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany, has said he'll decide after that contest concludes. Democrats, meanwhile, have no choice but to wait on Evers, who hasn't hinted at a timetable, though in 2021, he formally kicked off a bid for a second term in early June.

House

CA-13, CA-45, IA-01

Just one House race remains unresolved after the Associated Press called two other contests just before the Thanksgiving holiday.

In California's 45th District, Democrat Derek Tran emerged the victor over Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, who had an edge of more than 4 points right after Election Day. But later-counted votes consistently narrowed the race until Tran took the lead about 10 days later and never relinquished it. Tran, an Army veteran and consumer rights attorney who is the son of Vietnamese refugees, had a lead of 596 votes as of Sunday evening, a margin of 0.2%.

Meanwhile, in Iowa's 1st District, a recount confirmed Republican Rep. Marianette Miller-Meeks as the winner in her rematch with Democrat Christina Bohannan. The recount barely budged the final results: Miller-Meeks had led by 802 votes when Bohannan requested the review and wound up prevailing by 798 votes.

The developments assure Republicans of at least 220 seats when the House reconvenes in January, while Democrats will have at least 214. The final question mark is California's 13th District, where Democrat Adam Gray was up 227 votes on Republican Rep. John Duarte on Sunday evening. Only a small number of ballots remain to be tallied ahead of Tuesday's deadline for officials to finalize the results.

FL-06

Sen. Rick Scott has endorsed state Sen. Randy Fine in the Jan. 28 Republican primary ahead of the April 1 special election for Florida's soon-to-be-vacant 6th District. Fine already had Donald Trump's backing in the race for this dark-red district, which Rep. Mike Waltz is leaving behind to become Trump's national security advisor.

MA-06

White House official Dan Koh is considering challenging Rep. Seth Moulton in the Democratic primary for Massachusetts' 6th District, Politico's Kelly Garrity reports. Garrity writes that Koh "has been making—and fielding—calls" about a potential 2026 bid in the northeastern corner of the state, though he didn't respond to her inquiries about his plans.

Moulton infuriated progressives just after Election Day when he argued that his party suffered because it devoted "way too much time trying not to offend anyone rather than being brutally honest about the challenges many Americans face."

"I have two little girls, I don’t want them getting run over on a playing field by a male or formerly male athlete," Moulton told the New York Times, "but as a Democrat I’m supposed to be afraid to say that."

Several fellow Democrats condemned the congressman's comments, with Salem Mayor Dominick Pangallo and a local school committee telling parents that they opposed his sentiments "in the strongest terms possible." Moulton, though, remained defiant, declaring, "The backlash proves my point." He also dared his critics to challenge him at the ballot box, saying, "Good luck, I mean, run against me if you want."

This isn't the first time Moulton, who just won a sixth term, has courted controversy. The congressman led a failed charge after the 2018 elections to keep Nancy Pelosi from becoming speaker of the House again, and several local politicians publicly talked about challenging him for renomination. His intraparty foes also hoped that his decision to wage a longshot campaign for the White House would distract him.

However, while Moulton's presidential bid predictably went nowhere, a strong challenger failed to emerge back home in Massachusetts. The congressman ultimately secured renomination 78-12, and he faced no primary opposition during his subsequent two campaigns.

Koh, for his part, is a longtime top aide to Marty Walsh, who served as mayor of Boston before becoming Joe Biden's first secretary of labor in 2021. Koh left his post as Walsh's chief of staff to run for the open 3rd District in 2018, but he lost a packed primary to now-Rep. Lori Trahan 21.7-21.5, a margin of 145 votes.

Koh soon rebounded by winning a 2019 race for the Board of Selectmen in Andover, a community that, following the most recent round of redistricting, is now entirely in the 6th District. He didn't stay long, though, as he resigned in 2021 to rejoin Walsh as his chief of staff at the Department of Labor. Walsh departed the cabinet the following year to lead the National Hockey League Players Association, but Koh remained in the Biden administration.

Other Democrats may also take a look at taking on Moulton, though Pangallo tells Garrity he won't be one of them.

Mayors & County Leaders

Sacramento, CA Mayor

Assemblyman Kevin McCarty declared victory on Tuesday in the contest for mayor of Sacramento, though his opponent, fellow Democrat Flojaune Cofer, has not conceded.

McCarty leads Cofer, a physician, by a 50.7-49.3 margin with 188,000 ballots tabulated in the race to succeed retiring Mayor Darrell Steinberg as leader of California's capital city. McCarty initially posted a 55-45 advantage right after election night, but Cofer narrowed much of that gap as more votes were counted. The results are set to be certified on Dec. 3, just one week before the new mayor takes office.

McCarty—whose social media profile reminds viewers that he's "NOT Kevin McCartHy, Seriously!"—had the support of Steinberg and other notable Democrats like Rep. Doris Matsui. Cofer, meanwhile, had the local chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America and several labor groups on her side.