The difference between 2016 and 2020 in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin was suburban turnout. Many people forget this but Hillary actually outperformed Biden in Philadelphia. The reason why he won the state while she didn't is because his margins in the Philly suburbs were MUCH stronger than hers. On election night, we are going to have to look at Philly and Detroit suburbs early on.
I would suggest the best places to look at early on are Saginaw and Erie. They will give an indication of how high of a red MAGA sea wall will have to be crested by the suburbs for Harris to have any chance of winning.
Wonder if reluctance to vote for a woman also plays a factor.
They voted for Hillary. And Gretchen Whitmer. And other downballot Dems who were women.
Turnout in Detroit was below expectations, which is why she lost the state.
The difference between 2016 and 2020 in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin was suburban turnout. Many people forget this but Hillary actually outperformed Biden in Philadelphia. The reason why he won the state while she didn't is because his margins in the Philly suburbs were MUCH stronger than hers. On election night, we are going to have to look at Philly and Detroit suburbs early on.
I would suggest the best places to look at early on are Saginaw and Erie. They will give an indication of how high of a red MAGA sea wall will have to be crested by the suburbs for Harris to have any chance of winning.