Morning Digest: The Pennsylvania House could again be on the line—for the sixth time in three years

Democrats are favored but can take no chances with a one-seat edge

Pennsylvania House Speaker Joanna McClinton (credit: Joanna McClinton Facebook)

Leading Off

PA State House

Fresh off protecting their one-seat majority in the state House last month, Pennsylvania Democrats may soon have to defend two more seats in special elections—the sixth time since 2022 that control of the chamber has been on the line.

Those two seats, located at opposite ends of the state, are held by a pair of representatives who are each running for local office next November.

In western Pennsylvania, Rep. Dan Miller, who served as majority whip during the most recent legislative session, announced earlier this month he would campaign for a judgeship in loyally Democracy Allegheny County. Miller has the support of two prominent Pittsburgh-area politicians, Lt. Gov. Austin Davis and County Executive Sara Innamorato, ahead of the May 20 party primary.

Meanwhile, Rep. Josh Siegel declared this week that he would run to succeed his former boss, Phil Armstrong, as the leader of Lehigh County, a blue-leaning community north of Philadelphia. Armstrong, who is termed out, quickly endorsed his protégé. No major Republicans have launched a campaign yet, though Siegel predicted the eventual GOP nominee would "try to bring out the freaking worst in us."

Siegel just won his second term in the legislature without opposition, but a special election to replace him might not be a layup. While Kamala Harris carried his 22nd District 58-41, according to new calculations from The Downballot, that represents a notable drop from Joe Biden's 66-33 showing four years ago. Lehigh County as a whole, by contrast, slid from 53-45 Biden to 51-48 Harris.

Harris, by contrast, won Miller's 42nd District by a larger 64-35 spread, which is identical to Biden's 2020 margin. Miller told WESA's Chris Potter that he expects his seat "will remain in good hands" while also expressing hope that the state House wouldn't witness "the same volume [of turnover] as we did last time."

He's not kidding about that volume: The last two years featured 10 special elections—plus two different speakers.

While Republicans went into the 2022 elections favored to maintain the majority they'd first secured during the 2010 red wave, Democrats unexpectedly won a 102-101 edge in the 203-member chamber (the second-largest legislature in the country). Vacancies in three safely Democratic seats, though, meant that Republicans went into the new session temporarily holding a 101-99 advantage.

No one was sure going into the speakership vote whether Democrat Joanna McClinton or Republican Carl Metzgar would leave with the gavel, but the answer turned out to be neither. McClinton and the rest of the Democratic caucus plus a small group of Republicans instead backed moderate Democrat Mark Rozzi, who pledged to lead the chamber as an independent.

What followed was nearly two months of uncertainty over whether Rozzi—who infuriated his GOP supporters by remaining a Democrat—or McClinton would be speaker after the trio of vacant seats were filled. Rozzi, though, stepped aside shortly after Democrats won special elections in all three districts, and McClinton took over as the first Black woman to lead the chamber.

The Democratic majority then passed a rule to make sure that any future vacancies didn't lead to any confusion about who was in charge. The majority is now defined as the party that "won the greater number of elections for the 203 seats in the House of Representatives" in the most recent general election.

And that math doesn't change when new vacancies arise, since the rule also says that "the political party that won that seat at the last election shall remain the party that won that seat until any subsequent special election is held to fill that seat." Control can only shift if the minority flips enough seats before the next general election.

That rule allowed McClinton to remain speaker ahead of what turned out to be another four sets of special elections, during which both parties held all the seats they were defending. Most of those seats were safely red or blue, but on more than one occasion, Democrats had cause to worry their hold could be at risk.

And while Democrats and Republicans each targeted several constituencies going into November, Democrats maintained their razor-thin 102-101 edge without a single seat changing hands anywhere in the state.

The Downballot Podcast

The Second Annual Downballot Awards

We are delighted to wrap up the year with our presentation of the Second Annual Downballot Awards! In this ceremony, we honor both the highlights and the lowlights of a wild election cycle.

Who will take home the prize for Most Embarrassing Use of AI? Least Impactful Revenge Tour? Most Humiliating Fall from Grace? But it's not just razzies: Tune in to learn who won Most Impressive Overperformance, the Iron Bladder Award, and the top accolade, Best Campaign!

The most important honor, though, goes to you, our listeners, for your steadfast support all year long. We could not do this without you. We are truly grateful.

Senate

GA-Sen

Insurance Commissioner John King, who'd reportedly been weighing a run against Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, confirms to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that he's "taking a hard look" at the race but would only move forward if term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp says no.

Governors

AZ-Gov

Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, who said last month that he was considering challenging Gov. Katie Hobbs in the 2026 Democratic primary, now tells the Washington Post that he'll run for reelection instead.

KS-Gov

Attorney General Kris Kobach, whose disastrous candidacy handed Kansas' governorship to Democrats in 2018, could be in the hunt to run again, suggests Kansas City Star columnist Joel Mathis.

But as Mathis also notes, Kobach sports grim favorability ratings, with just 34% of voters giving him a thumbs up and 41% grading him negatively in Fox News' exit poll conducted during last month's elections. That's well below the standing of the woman who beat him six years ago, term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly, who earned a 51-38 score in the same poll.

Kobach, an extremist known for pursuing conservative causes—and MAGA adulation—far outside of Kansas' borders, nearly cost Republicans a second time when he ran for attorney general in 2022, defeating Democrat Chris Mann by just a 51-49 margin. While Democrats will have a tough time hanging on to the governorship, they'd be grateful for the opportunity that a repeat performance by Kobach would present.

House

PA-03

Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans has not cast a vote in Congress in more than seven months after suffering a stroke in May, reports the Philadelphia Inquirer's Julia Terruso.

Immediately after the episode, Evans said he expected to be back on the job in six weeks but did not return. In October, Evans told the paper he'd resume his duties the following month, but in mid-November, he posted a statement on his congressional website indicating he does not plan to return until Congress reconvenes in January.

Evans, who is 70, won a fifth term last month unopposed. If he were to step down early, party leaders rather than voters would choose a nominee for a special election to replace him. That process would be tantamount to election, given that Pennsylvania's 3rd District, which is based in Philadelphia, is one of the bluest in the nation.

Mayors & County Leaders

Oakland, CA Mayor

The Oakland City Council on Tuesday set April 15 for the special election to succeed Mayor Sheng Thao, whom voters ousted in a recall election by a wide 64-34 margin last month.

Thao stepped down that same day and was succeeded by City Council President Nikki Fortunato Bas, but the new mayor will only hold her post for a few weeks. Bas will depart on Jan. 6 after winning a seat on the Alameda County Board of Supervisors last month, so the City Council will pick a new president who will temporarily double as interim mayor.

Anyone who wants to compete in the ranked-choice special election for the remainder of Thao's term in this dark blue city has until Jan. 17 to file. The eventual winner will be up for a new four-year term in 2026.

The field already includes former City Councilmember Loren Taylor, who lost to Thao two years ago in a 50.3-49.7 squeaker. Renia Webb, who served as Thao's chief of staff when she was on the City Council, is also running. Webb has accused her old boss of corruption, which Thao denies.

Thao, meanwhile, didn't rule out running to succeed herself this week in an interview with KRON 4. Recall expert Joshua Spivak says that, while state and local laws used to prohibit recalled incumbents from campaigning to replace themselves, it's not clear whether that's still the case following recent legal changes that yielded "troubling procedural gaps."

Two other prominent East Bay denizens have also shown an interest in the race. Former star NFL running back Marshawn Lynch, who attracted global fame with the Seattle Seahawks, generated widespread attention in October when he said he might make the switch to politics. Lynch, though, doesn't appear to have said anything new about his plans over the ensuing two months.

Outgoing Rep. Barbara Lee, likewise, hasn't dismissed chatter that she could campaign to lead her hometown. Lee, who was first elected in 1998 to represent Oakland in the U.S. House, is leaving following her unsuccessful bid for the Senate earlier this year.