Greenland parliamentary elections were yesterday, the results as such:
Party Seats +/–
Democrats (Liberal Unionist) 10 +7
Naleraq (Populist Nationalist) 8 +4
Inuit Ataqatigiit (Far Left Nationalist) 7 -5
Siumut (Social-Dem Nationalist) 4 -6
Atassut (Conservative Unionist) 2 0
This means that the ruling coalition of Inuit Ataqatigiit + Naleraq is one seat short of a majority. The nationalists in principle still have 19 of 31 seats, but Siumut and Inuit Ataqatigiit have had a longstanding and fairly bitter rivalry, and Siumut has previously preferred the Democrats as a coalition partner. This combination won't work this time however, as they would need to rely on Atassut for a majority.
A notable feature of the results is that the two socialist / social democratic parties both suffered large losses. Since the parliament's creation in 1979, one or the other has been the largest party in parliament, with the other usually being the second largest. Now they have fallen to third and fourth place. This speaks, in my view, to the failure of Greenland's social model with increasing problems around homelessness (yes, in that climate) and cost of living, which were very much on voters' minds.
Obviously Trump's sabre rattling also influenced voters. The unionists had a very good night, no doubt in part because of desire for stability and the continued protection of Denmark. So, however, did the rather Trumpian Naleraq party, which has expressed openness towards dancing with the tiger, even though they reject annexation by the United States.
My guess is that you'll see a "stability" coalition of Democrats + Atassut + Siumut, and any independence referendum will be postponed until the more radical nationalists regain power in some future election.
Yes, the opposition beat the governing coalition by one seat.
I don't know, the narcissism of small differences? Inuit Ataqatigiit is the historically Communist party. Social Dems and Communists have a very long history of bad blood in quite a few countries.
They certainly didn't after the last election when Inuit Ataqatigiit went with the wankers in Naleraq over the much more natural coalition partner of Siumut. Maybe sharing bad fortune this time around might cause them to see things differently, but I doubt it.
Hitler would never have become Chancellor if Stalin had not asked communist KPD to not co-operate with then DemSoc SPD. KPD called SPD "social fascists". Also Bolsheviks themselves fought DemSoc and SocDem Mensheviks.
Trump might never have become Chancellor, uh I mean President, if Jill Stein hadn’t bled off votes in key states in 2016. Meanwhile, the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) seem far more intent on tearing down Democrats, including AOC, than effectively opposing Trumpist Republicans.
Anything's possible, but it would be strange bedfellows (i.e. nationalist + unionist, classically liberal + leftist). It has some logic in that it's only two parties and neither of those parties are Naleraq.
The big question is does this open up the Governorship? Kelly Ayotte has made no secret she wants to get back to the Senate after being narrowly ousted in 2016.
I said it last time this was brought up, but voters tend to dislike candidates that abandon their current office so quickly. Contrariwise, if she sticks to her current job and runs for reelection she will have a much easier time of it — I'd say she's a very heavy favorite for reelection as things stand.
It would be a strategic mistake for her to run for senate now. Especially with it being a republican midterm year. If she really wants to be a senator again she can hunker down and do the job of governor for a few terms. NH tends to love our governors unless they royally fuck up, so she can reasonably expect to end up fairly popular after 6+ years. Unfortunately for us. She could then run in 2032 or 2034.
I suspect this is why Shaheen (and Peters in MI and Smith in MN) chose now to retire. Expecting 2026 to be a strong Dem mid-term and giving Dems a long lead time to choose the strongest nominee. Team players all.
I would wait and see if Sununu/Ayotte run and win their primary before saying that we're favored in this one. If either of them runs and makes it through the primary (not a sure thing-both are definitely vulnerable to a MAGA primary challenge-especially Sununu), I think our nominee would be at a disadvantage here-even Pappas.
Well, with Shaheen, Smith and Peters retiring, for anyone who’s been yelling about how we need a new generation of leaders in the Senate that are right for the moment, here are three new chances to make that happen.
Unfortunately, Hick has said he’s running for reelection. I don’t mind him, but the Dems have built up a great bench in CO and it would be nice to see them in higher positions.
Dick Durbin has to be one of the most ineffective Majority Whips in modern Senate history. Utterly shocking that he couldn’t find ways to pressure Sinema and Manchin to vote for more of the Democratic agenda, key circuit-court judges, NLRB appointees and other nominees. (Did Durbin even try?)
Imagine: If Democrats had immediately repealed Trump’s tax cuts early in 2021, freeing up funds for a comprehensive Build Back Better legislation, Medicare expansion, etc etc.
Yeah, I don't blame Durbin for Machinema at all. Those two were already eying the door and looking to cash out. There might be other, more valid criticisms of Durbin but Machinema ain't one of them.
Some Ds are angry at John Fetterman— I mean, he’s a D Senator in a purple state. He’s going to vote for some nominees or statutes that piss people off.
Unlike the other Senators discussed here, Markey is a solid progressive, so let's maybe leave him alone. I don't think any of us here want to see Stephen Lynch or Seth Moulton in the Senate. Or that poser Auchincloss. Unless Ayanna Pressley wins the primary, which surely will be hard-fought, it will probably be a downgrade from Markey.
Pressley would be the odds-on favorite in an open primary. Moulton has pissed off the whole establishment of the state. Pressley is liked by Warren, Wu, and Healey (Healey endorsed Pressley in her initial challenge to Capuano!). Lynch is too old to make a credible second run for senate. For Auchincloss, if we want to avoid him in the senate then we should open the seat up as soon as possible, before he's had even more time to establish himself. Same story with Trahan.
Pressley's best shot in a senate primary is going to be 2026; her relative strength will only diminish with time. Not because she herself gets weaker, but because the other younger members of the house delegation will gain strength.
Problem with Markey is he is old and should make room for new blood. He will be 80 on election day 2026. Means he has a very real chance of repeating Feinstein's final years. He's had a good career, got his senate career capstone and even beat a Kennedy in a dem primary. It's a good time to hang up his hat for the younger generation. Any senate majorities we can hope on for the next decade are going to be narrow — we should not risk the mere function of any future trifectas by having a half dozen senators in their mid-late 80s who are much more likely to come down with debilitating illnesses that leave them alive but not able to resign. I don't like it when we play with fire for little gain.
Also, when we progressives argue we need older officials retire to make room for new blood, we need to be consistent about it. When we make exceptions for octogenarian progressives it makes our desires for septuagenarian moderates to retire sound hollow and hypocritical.
I'm not convinced Ayanna Pressley really wants to be a Senator (at least not compared to something along the lines of Governor of Massachusetts, Mayor of Boston or just advancing in House leadership).
Personally, if Markey were to retire, I would personally like to see Andrea Campbell run.
Some folks on social media are freaking out about Shaheen retiring, why? 2026 is not going to be a good year for Rs because of midterms and FDJT’s DOGE cuts.
Too early to predict that with assurance. Anything could happen between now and November 2026. An open seat in a purple or light blue state will always, and should always, cause a little bit of heartburn.
It should, but on the balance of it I would much rather Shaheen open this seat up now than in the unknowns of 2032. Or even worse, open up the possibility of Ayotte being able to appoint someone to the seat because of health issues.
It's the most promising chance we have for a Shaheen retirement.
Elissa Slotkin is a gen xer and Haley Stevens is a millennial.
Assuming Stevens wins the Senate primary and the general election, she and Slotkin, both women, would be representative of younger generations than Debbie Stabenow and Gary Peters, both baby boomers.
Pappas is my 1st choice, Van Ostern 2nd, should stay blue in a midterm like 2026 with Tango Turd there again. Do Republicans run Kelly Ayotte or Scott Brown? 🤔
NH and NC didn't have Senate races in the previous Trump midterm back in 2018, so brilliant to look forward to!! 💙🇺🇲
Even if he does, there's no guarantee he'll win it next year. Especially with a highly unpopular incumbent and the unelected DOGE Afrikaan pulling his strings.
People thought former governor Larry Hogan would make the MD Senate race last year competitive -- but Alsobrooks trounced him. NH Ds and independents are going to be FIRED up to replace Sheen with another D Senator next year, not a 'yes' vote for Thune and FDJT's extreme agenda.
He is reconsidering again, but even if he did run; 2026 would be the worst possible environment for him so he'd be an underdog. Pappas would have the upper hand. NH rejected Trump all 3 times, making the odds of sending him a potential 54th Senator increasingly unlikely!! 💙🇺🇲
It was reported in the local news that she was concerned about polls where voters expressed concern about her age and the one where Sununu was beating her handily.
Pappas scares me. He can turn out to be another Sinema. He has voted against Marijuana legalization and Student debt cancellation. He has also been ranked among the top 3 bipartisan reps similar to Sinema. We need a moderate democrat like Kelly or Ossoff not a Sinema.
Edited: Zero Cool pointed out that Gallego was a staunch liberal
NH is gonna NH, like it or not. Shaheen and Hassan are typically voting with the annoying moderates when the opportunity comes up. They also are there when we need their vote. Pappas should be the same.
That's what we can hope for out of this state. The marginal democratic voter that gets us over the 50% threshold here is a boring moderate. Three of the past four mayors of Manchester, NH's largest city, have been republicans, including the current mayor. A Galllego type would probably do well here, but we don't have any Gallego type candidates in the wings. Pappas is the best we got.
Pappas is no Sinema. For starters, for the most part he’s become a reliable vote for Democrats on many issues, with the exceptions like what you mentioned. He also has fought to raise the threshold on sellers who sell on eBay, Etsy, etc. by which they are being taxed (originally $600, now is $5,000). This is in respond to the stupid provision Democrats put in one of the infrastructure bills President Biden signed into law.
Gallego is a staunch liberal (at least that’s how he was in his previous House district), not exactly a moderate like Mark Kelly.
Gallego was quite liberal when he was in the House although his district even after redistricting was still dark blue. A snapshot of his stances on the issues and voting record is below.
I'd say it's too early to determine how moderate or not so moderate Gallego is. On the other hand, his Senate campaign did focus on bread and butter issues without him trying to market himself as a liberal so there may be reasons why he's doing this.
Until things change in the foreseeable future, AZ remains to be difficult for Democrats to be elected to the Senate by no more than a few percentage points margin.
FYI, when Gallego goes after Ted Cruz on Twitter (who coincidentally is Latino like him) for not showing balls, he does it without any hesitation.
I think Pappas would be like Shaheen, solid vote with the occasional bone thrown to finicky NH voters. At this point i'll take anyone who hasn't stroked out and turned traitor dick like Fetterman.
As we know, elections have consequences – but so do corporate heads getting overly involved in elections, especially foreign elections. And even more so in the case of Elon Musk, who chose to support the Neo-Nazi AfD in Germany’s recent parliamentary election.
Now German car buyers have given Musk the clearest possible rebuke for his election meddling. Tesla sales in Germany dropped by 76.3% in February 2025 compared with February 2024.
Tesla was going to suffer already with the increasing competition in EV models in Europe (to say nothing of China), but this has been hyper charged. I’ll be very curious to see how toxic the brand is here since we report by quarter rather than month
Funny how all the MAGA Republicans, Fox News and Newsmax watchers, Bannon’s War Room audience, Daily Stormer subscribers, Putin lovers and others who applaud Musk and his Xitter propaganda aren’t queuing up to purchase Teslas and Cybertrucks.
Setting aside Musk deciding his target market is shitposters and edgelords, had Tesla designed a truck comporting with its existing design principles that could probably would have done pretty well. By all accounts Ford and GM’s EV trucks are solid vehicles they just struggle to overcome existing brand associations
I'm pretty sure Musk stole the design for the cybertruck from a picture of very-young me in the 70s playing with a "truck" I made out of some folded pieces of cardboard and a strap on roller skate. I told my brother not to post old family photos on Twitter. Smh.
Tom McClintock’s getting serious criticism from constituents over not doing anything about the situation with Yosemite National Park and the proposed firings of staff.
McClintock believed the issue has been blown out of proportion.
Is it a surprise that Trump did not appoint Kyrsten Sinema, who voted against raising the minimum wage and against appointing a Democrat to the National Labor Relations Board, thereby crippling its work, to be secretary of labor?
I don't Sinema would have accepted an appointment from Trump (If Haley or DeSantis had won the primary, she might have considered it, however-I think she'd be more comfortable being in a room alone with either of them.).
Right-Wing Donors and Foundations Spent $1 Billion to Keep People From Voting
The American Prospect: A new study documents the fortunes spent to suppress voting in 2024. There are many reasons Democrats had a poor showing on Election Day. One reason that isn’t getting enough attention is that conservative foundations and wealthy donors spent heavily on funding nonprofits that suppress voter participation, kick people off the voter rolls, and throw out legitimately cast ballots.
In the 2024 election, more people didn’t vote than voted for any one candidate…
There are, of course, many reasons why so many eligible voters didn’t vote. Right-wing funding of election deniers and anti–voting rights organizations are definitely part of the answer. Millions of people wanted to vote but were prevented from doing so. Others did vote, but their vote was wrongly rejected and was never counted.
"Millions of people wanted to vote but were prevented from doing so."
This is an extremely bold claim, and almost certainly false. The fact is, voting is easy and straightforward in the three states that decided the election - Michigan has both no-excuse mail voting and in-person early voting, while Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have no-excuse mail voting. And both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have small precincts (particularly Pennsylvania and its cities), meaning that their voting locations are close by (and in the cities, within walking distance), and wait times are usually short. [Precinct size is a bigger issue in the South, but they deal with it by having extensive in-person early voting.]
The simple truth is that the people who didn't vote were simply too apathetic to vote. It's worth noting that Philadelphia, which has some of the smallest and most compact voting precincts of anywhere in America, also had the largest turnout drop of anywhere in Pennsylvania. Those people just didn't want to vote. Voter turnout here is never going to be as high as in places like Australia and parts of Europe - we'd need a massive culture shift to make that happen, and that would be a slow, gradual process.
I am citing the linked article and there are multiple references therein.* The American Prospect is not in the habit of making spurious claims.
Part of the math here is the large number of voters that have been improperly purged from voter rolls in Republican-controlled states. I would be really interested in seeing an exhaustive tabulation of those. I would be astonished if that does not exceed a million.
Let’s take an example: We know that Brian Kemp, while Secretary of State of Georgia yet a gubernatorial candidate, is credibly accused of improperly removing 340,000 voters from the voter rolls. Worth noting: Kemp beat Stacy Abrams by just 55,000 votes in 2018.
*) One of the sources cited is Greg Palast, of whom I am not a fan. I have read two of his books and I just don’t think he is rigorous enough. But Palast is just one of many sources cited by The Prospect.
Trump’s handling of the economy already deep in the hole, compared to thoughts during his first term. Question only becomes how much the GOP at this point fears bad poll numbers
They fear primaries far more than general elections. Too few seats in either chamber are even vaguely competitive. If they do anything it's going to be behind the scenes.
If only people had bothered to think about consequences before the election... Why are voters so consistently blase about their vote, only freaking out about the potential impact after the fact? Brexit, 2016, and 2024 all jump to mind. Huge "oh shit" moments for enough of the populace to have decisively changed the outcome, if it had happened before instead of after. I don't get it.
Yeah, I just get flabbergasted that there's no change after the very recent examples. His first administration isn't ancient history. The overwhelming majority of voters were there for it and would remember it.
Even operating under the awareness that electorates are lazy and largely do not care, and especially do not care about policy, it still surprises me. Not that they will be unhappy with the consequences of their vote. Instead it's the predictability of it all. We already went through this. The 2016 "oh no what have we done" dance I can at least get how they did that, even if I think it was painfully obvious in advance. But for 2024 they already did this! It was recent memory! It's like willful maleficence on their behalf, stubbornly doing something dumb only because they were warned how obviously dumb it is and intentionally ignoring that they have direct experience with it being dumb.
Although no paper work has been filed, Rep. Al Green apparently has a challenger. Mayra Guillén, whose sister, U.S. Army Spc. Vanessa Guillén, was murdered at Fort Cavazos and who has campaigned against the Army's lax treatment of sexual harassment and assault, announced that she would run in Texas's 9th Congressional District against Green. Guillén, who is a MAGAt, wrote: "After watching @RepAlGreen disrespect not only @POTUS last night, but our district, state and country, I believe it’s time for me to get into the fight like I did for my sister Vanessa Guillen!” She added: “It’s time to end the propaganda displayed by these politicians, and time to help support @POTUS and his amazing Admiration to Make America Great Again! Al Green I’m coming for your seat.” That is not a recipe for victory in the heavily blue 9th.
She'll fill a similar function as the various high profile challenges to AOC or McConnell have played. A money sink for the republican base that get excited about beating someone they hate, even though it's a fool's errand due to the district or state.
Let me get this straight: Mayra Guillén has campaigned vociferously against the Army’s lax treatment of sexual harassment – and yet she vehemently supports a man who has essentially been found culpable of raping E. Jean Carroll, has a long list of women who have credibly accused him of sexual abuse, and is on tape bragging about how he "grabs ’em by the pussy".
Of course, MAGA sycophants whined about the Biden economy and then voted for a crook who has done everything possible to bring about a recession. They complained about America's place in the world and then voted for a Russian asset who has managed to antagonize all of this country's allies. They claimed that Biden was somehow corrupt but voted for a convicted felon and serial scammer.
Good luck for Guillen. She's going to get the same kind of success challenging Rep. Al Green in TX-09 as AOC's GOP Challenger Tina Forte did back in 2022 and 2024.
It's been hard to be optimistic about Iowa lately, but there have been two special state legislative elections in the last two months where the GOP either lost or only barely held on to what seemed to be safe seats, and this particular district has the state's largest Democratic base.
This may be too soon to predict but I have an instinctive feeling IA could go back to being a swing state again if Democrats play their cards right. Can't say the same thing about OH though considering how it's moved to the right in the last several elections.
Democrats were fairly dominant on the presidential level in Iowa from 1988 to 2012. Losing only in 2004. They lost 3 times in Ohio during that time period.
Says a lot about how difficult OH is as a state for Democrats!
Interesting thing is, Biden did better than Clinton did back in 2016 even while losing the state. It only moved more to the right in 2024 where Harris lost by double digits.
Here are the margins Democrats lost IA by at the presidential level:
Perhaps comparing both IA and OH presidential election results might help:
2016:
IA - Trump won by 9.4% points
OH - Trump won by 8.1% points
2020:
IA - Trump won by 8.2% points
OH - Trump won by 8.1% points
2024:
IA - Trump won by 13.2% points
OH - Trump won by 11.2% points
Unlike IA, OH has not moved more in the Democratic Party's favor at all in the presidential elections from 2016-2024 (not even by 1% or less than 1%). A 1.2% drop in the margin of loss for Biden in IA back in 2020 is still better than his loss was in OH, where his margin of loss stayed the same as Clinton's back in 2016.
I agree that IA is still going to remain difficult for Democrats at the presidential level in the forseeable future. However, the 2020 presidential election results in IA + Senator Joni Ernst winning re-election by single digits + the success in turnout for off-year elections seems to show that Democrats are getting traction in IA.
When IA goes back to being a swing state that Democrats can win at the presidential level though is questionable.
Canada: First poll since Carney was selected shows the race tied. And tied in Ontario. Which would probably mean a Liberal minority in such a scenario.
Greenland parliamentary elections were yesterday, the results as such:
Party Seats +/–
Democrats (Liberal Unionist) 10 +7
Naleraq (Populist Nationalist) 8 +4
Inuit Ataqatigiit (Far Left Nationalist) 7 -5
Siumut (Social-Dem Nationalist) 4 -6
Atassut (Conservative Unionist) 2 0
This means that the ruling coalition of Inuit Ataqatigiit + Naleraq is one seat short of a majority. The nationalists in principle still have 19 of 31 seats, but Siumut and Inuit Ataqatigiit have had a longstanding and fairly bitter rivalry, and Siumut has previously preferred the Democrats as a coalition partner. This combination won't work this time however, as they would need to rely on Atassut for a majority.
A notable feature of the results is that the two socialist / social democratic parties both suffered large losses. Since the parliament's creation in 1979, one or the other has been the largest party in parliament, with the other usually being the second largest. Now they have fallen to third and fourth place. This speaks, in my view, to the failure of Greenland's social model with increasing problems around homelessness (yes, in that climate) and cost of living, which were very much on voters' minds.
Obviously Trump's sabre rattling also influenced voters. The unionists had a very good night, no doubt in part because of desire for stability and the continued protection of Denmark. So, however, did the rather Trumpian Naleraq party, which has expressed openness towards dancing with the tiger, even though they reject annexation by the United States.
My guess is that you'll see a "stability" coalition of Democrats + Atassut + Siumut, and any independence referendum will be postponed until the more radical nationalists regain power in some future election.
Excellent! Your summary is far better than those I have found on other news sites. A few questions, if I may:
– The three parties you mention will hold a bare majority: 16 of 31, right?
– Why the bitter rivalry between the Siumut and Inuit Ataqatigiit?
– What would it take to bury this rivalry and open political cooperation?
Yes, the opposition beat the governing coalition by one seat.
I don't know, the narcissism of small differences? Inuit Ataqatigiit is the historically Communist party. Social Dems and Communists have a very long history of bad blood in quite a few countries.
They certainly didn't after the last election when Inuit Ataqatigiit went with the wankers in Naleraq over the much more natural coalition partner of Siumut. Maybe sharing bad fortune this time around might cause them to see things differently, but I doubt it.
Hitler would never have become Chancellor if Stalin had not asked communist KPD to not co-operate with then DemSoc SPD. KPD called SPD "social fascists". Also Bolsheviks themselves fought DemSoc and SocDem Mensheviks.
Sort of like here.
Trump might never have become Chancellor, uh I mean President, if Jill Stein hadn’t bled off votes in key states in 2016. Meanwhile, the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) seem far more intent on tearing down Democrats, including AOC, than effectively opposing Trumpist Republicans.
I don't disagree with any of this, but it feels kind of out of place an intentionally inflammatory to raise it here...
One more thing: As I understand it, Greenland’s most America-leaning party, Qulleq, didn’t gain enough votes to win even a single seat in parliament.
They were newly created this election and received 300 votes.
Elsewhere I saw it predicted that the Democrats and Ataqstigiit would coalesce. You think not?
Anything's possible, but it would be strange bedfellows (i.e. nationalist + unionist, classically liberal + leftist). It has some logic in that it's only two parties and neither of those parties are Naleraq.
Jeanne Shaheen not running again in NH. How's the bench there, do we have good options to run?
We control both US House seats and US Senate seats there. We thankfully do have a decent bench there.
Pappas probably the leading contender.
The big question is does this open up the Governorship? Kelly Ayotte has made no secret she wants to get back to the Senate after being narrowly ousted in 2016.
If Ayotte has any sense, she'll realize that this isn't the right time to go for Senate. A Harris state in a midterm with a Republican trifecta?
I said it last time this was brought up, but voters tend to dislike candidates that abandon their current office so quickly. Contrariwise, if she sticks to her current job and runs for reelection she will have a much easier time of it — I'd say she's a very heavy favorite for reelection as things stand.
It would be a strategic mistake for her to run for senate now. Especially with it being a republican midterm year. If she really wants to be a senator again she can hunker down and do the job of governor for a few terms. NH tends to love our governors unless they royally fuck up, so she can reasonably expect to end up fairly popular after 6+ years. Unfortunately for us. She could then run in 2032 or 2034.
Would Pappas defeat Ayotte?
I think so, given that Democrats have the out of power midterm advantage.
Even though Sununu said he was going to run for the Senate seat? He said it today.
Sununu on possible Senate bid: ‘I have not ruled it out completely’
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5189899-sununu-possible-senate-bid/
I suspect this is why Shaheen (and Peters in MI and Smith in MN) chose now to retire. Expecting 2026 to be a strong Dem mid-term and giving Dems a long lead time to choose the strongest nominee. Team players all.
Yes, especially with the republican trifecta and the damage Trump is causing.
I would wait and see if Sununu/Ayotte run and win their primary before saying that we're favored in this one. If either of them runs and makes it through the primary (not a sure thing-both are definitely vulnerable to a MAGA primary challenge-especially Sununu), I think our nominee would be at a disadvantage here-even Pappas.
Well, with Shaheen, Smith and Peters retiring, for anyone who’s been yelling about how we need a new generation of leaders in the Senate that are right for the moment, here are three new chances to make that happen.
Yes, but are we losing the crucial advantage of incumbency in any of these three senate races? Thoughts?
Michigan maybe.
To my comment above, I think these are thoughtful retirements, timed to coincide with an expected strong D midterm.
I for one am glad we’re seeing some generational turnover and I hope that Hickenlooper and especially Durbin take the hint
Unfortunately, Hick has said he’s running for reelection. I don’t mind him, but the Dems have built up a great bench in CO and it would be nice to see them in higher positions.
Especially since most of our bench is termed out of their current positions.
Shouldn’t be at all worried. Colorado has moved further to the left last year than it did in 2016 and 2020.
Dick Durbin has to be one of the most ineffective Majority Whips in modern Senate history. Utterly shocking that he couldn’t find ways to pressure Sinema and Manchin to vote for more of the Democratic agenda, key circuit-court judges, NLRB appointees and other nominees. (Did Durbin even try?)
Imagine: If Democrats had immediately repealed Trump’s tax cuts early in 2021, freeing up funds for a comprehensive Build Back Better legislation, Medicare expansion, etc etc.
Sorry there's no reality when enough "pressure" could've gotten Manchinema to repeal the Trump tax cuts in the middle of the pandemic.
Yeah, I don't blame Durbin for Machinema at all. Those two were already eying the door and looking to cash out. There might be other, more valid criticisms of Durbin but Machinema ain't one of them.
Some Ds are angry at John Fetterman— I mean, he’s a D Senator in a purple state. He’s going to vote for some nominees or statutes that piss people off.
And people call him Manchinema 2.0…
It's more that he's a dick about it. And spends more time attacking his own party and its supporters than the Republicans.
Markey should too, but I believe he's already announced that he is running.
Unlike the other Senators discussed here, Markey is a solid progressive, so let's maybe leave him alone. I don't think any of us here want to see Stephen Lynch or Seth Moulton in the Senate. Or that poser Auchincloss. Unless Ayanna Pressley wins the primary, which surely will be hard-fought, it will probably be a downgrade from Markey.
Pressley would be the odds-on favorite in an open primary. Moulton has pissed off the whole establishment of the state. Pressley is liked by Warren, Wu, and Healey (Healey endorsed Pressley in her initial challenge to Capuano!). Lynch is too old to make a credible second run for senate. For Auchincloss, if we want to avoid him in the senate then we should open the seat up as soon as possible, before he's had even more time to establish himself. Same story with Trahan.
Pressley's best shot in a senate primary is going to be 2026; her relative strength will only diminish with time. Not because she herself gets weaker, but because the other younger members of the house delegation will gain strength.
Problem with Markey is he is old and should make room for new blood. He will be 80 on election day 2026. Means he has a very real chance of repeating Feinstein's final years. He's had a good career, got his senate career capstone and even beat a Kennedy in a dem primary. It's a good time to hang up his hat for the younger generation. Any senate majorities we can hope on for the next decade are going to be narrow — we should not risk the mere function of any future trifectas by having a half dozen senators in their mid-late 80s who are much more likely to come down with debilitating illnesses that leave them alive but not able to resign. I don't like it when we play with fire for little gain.
Also, when we progressives argue we need older officials retire to make room for new blood, we need to be consistent about it. When we make exceptions for octogenarian progressives it makes our desires for septuagenarian moderates to retire sound hollow and hypocritical.
I'm not convinced Ayanna Pressley really wants to be a Senator (at least not compared to something along the lines of Governor of Massachusetts, Mayor of Boston or just advancing in House leadership).
Personally, if Markey were to retire, I would personally like to see Andrea Campbell run.
Some folks on social media are freaking out about Shaheen retiring, why? 2026 is not going to be a good year for Rs because of midterms and FDJT’s DOGE cuts.
"Some folks on social media are freaking out" about everything
Too early to predict that with assurance. Anything could happen between now and November 2026. An open seat in a purple or light blue state will always, and should always, cause a little bit of heartburn.
It should, but on the balance of it I would much rather Shaheen open this seat up now than in the unknowns of 2032. Or even worse, open up the possibility of Ayotte being able to appoint someone to the seat because of health issues.
It's the most promising chance we have for a Shaheen retirement.
This is the right level of concern - "a little bit of heartburn" but if we can't hold these seats in a Trump midterm, we have much bigger concerns.
Elissa Slotkin is a gen xer and Haley Stevens is a millennial.
Assuming Stevens wins the Senate primary and the general election, she and Slotkin, both women, would be representative of younger generations than Debbie Stabenow and Gary Peters, both baby boomers.
As I expected, Shaheen retiring in NH.
Pappas is my 1st choice, Van Ostern 2nd, should stay blue in a midterm like 2026 with Tango Turd there again. Do Republicans run Kelly Ayotte or Scott Brown? 🤔
NH and NC didn't have Senate races in the previous Trump midterm back in 2018, so brilliant to look forward to!! 💙🇺🇲
What about Sununu?
Repeatedly ruled it out, even 2026.
I thought he said today or yesterday that he was running for the 2026 Senate seat.
I know he hasn't said he will.
Even if he does, there's no guarantee he'll win it next year. Especially with a highly unpopular incumbent and the unelected DOGE Afrikaan pulling his strings.
People thought former governor Larry Hogan would make the MD Senate race last year competitive -- but Alsobrooks trounced him. NH Ds and independents are going to be FIRED up to replace Sheen with another D Senator next year, not a 'yes' vote for Thune and FDJT's extreme agenda.
He is reconsidering again, but even if he did run; 2026 would be the worst possible environment for him so he'd be an underdog. Pappas would have the upper hand. NH rejected Trump all 3 times, making the odds of sending him a potential 54th Senator increasingly unlikely!! 💙🇺🇲
I presume age is a key reason for her retirement. I didn’t realize that Senator Shaheen is 78 years old. She certainly doesn’t look her age!
Chris Pappas, being only 44, would certainly be a generational renewal.
Yes, 1947. 1 year younger than Trump, she looks well.
Pappas is my 1st choice to keep the Senate seat blue, keeping the potentially open NH-01 blue will be essential to taking back the House also!! 💙🇺🇲
It was reported in the local news that she was concerned about polls where voters expressed concern about her age and the one where Sununu was beating her handily.
Pappas scares me. He can turn out to be another Sinema. He has voted against Marijuana legalization and Student debt cancellation. He has also been ranked among the top 3 bipartisan reps similar to Sinema. We need a moderate democrat like Kelly or Ossoff not a Sinema.
Edited: Zero Cool pointed out that Gallego was a staunch liberal
NH is gonna NH, like it or not. Shaheen and Hassan are typically voting with the annoying moderates when the opportunity comes up. They also are there when we need their vote. Pappas should be the same.
That's what we can hope for out of this state. The marginal democratic voter that gets us over the 50% threshold here is a boring moderate. Three of the past four mayors of Manchester, NH's largest city, have been republicans, including the current mayor. A Galllego type would probably do well here, but we don't have any Gallego type candidates in the wings. Pappas is the best we got.
Pappas is no Sinema. For starters, for the most part he’s become a reliable vote for Democrats on many issues, with the exceptions like what you mentioned. He also has fought to raise the threshold on sellers who sell on eBay, Etsy, etc. by which they are being taxed (originally $600, now is $5,000). This is in respond to the stupid provision Democrats put in one of the infrastructure bills President Biden signed into law.
Gallego is a staunch liberal (at least that’s how he was in his previous House district), not exactly a moderate like Mark Kelly.
Gallego's votes in the senate and his rhetoric against Lake seem/seemed to be quite moderate. I don't know much about his previous record.
Politicians are gonna politician. Alot of these guys don't stand for much other than getting elected and getting power.
Gallego was quite liberal when he was in the House although his district even after redistricting was still dark blue. A snapshot of his stances on the issues and voting record is below.
I'd say it's too early to determine how moderate or not so moderate Gallego is. On the other hand, his Senate campaign did focus on bread and butter issues without him trying to market himself as a liberal so there may be reasons why he's doing this.
Until things change in the foreseeable future, AZ remains to be difficult for Democrats to be elected to the Senate by no more than a few percentage points margin.
FYI, when Gallego goes after Ted Cruz on Twitter (who coincidentally is Latino like him) for not showing balls, he does it without any hesitation.
https://ontheissues.org/Senate/Ruben_Gallego.htm
I think Pappas would be like Shaheen, solid vote with the occasional bone thrown to finicky NH voters. At this point i'll take anyone who hasn't stroked out and turned traitor dick like Fetterman.
Pappas honestly reminds me more of John Lynch than any recent Senator (if we want to use comparables to New Hampshire politicians).
Tesla toxic in Germany
As we know, elections have consequences – but so do corporate heads getting overly involved in elections, especially foreign elections. And even more so in the case of Elon Musk, who chose to support the Neo-Nazi AfD in Germany’s recent parliamentary election.
Now German car buyers have given Musk the clearest possible rebuke for his election meddling. Tesla sales in Germany dropped by 76.3% in February 2025 compared with February 2024.
Tesla was going to suffer already with the increasing competition in EV models in Europe (to say nothing of China), but this has been hyper charged. I’ll be very curious to see how toxic the brand is here since we report by quarter rather than month
Funny how all the MAGA Republicans, Fox News and Newsmax watchers, Bannon’s War Room audience, Daily Stormer subscribers, Putin lovers and others who applaud Musk and his Xitter propaganda aren’t queuing up to purchase Teslas and Cybertrucks.
Setting aside Musk deciding his target market is shitposters and edgelords, had Tesla designed a truck comporting with its existing design principles that could probably would have done pretty well. By all accounts Ford and GM’s EV trucks are solid vehicles they just struggle to overcome existing brand associations
I'm pretty sure Musk stole the design for the cybertruck from a picture of very-young me in the 70s playing with a "truck" I made out of some folded pieces of cardboard and a strap on roller skate. I told my brother not to post old family photos on Twitter. Smh.
You win the day!
And, go figure, JPMorgan slashed the price target for TSLA to $120 - half its current value and 1/4 of its value at the December peak
CA-05:
Tom McClintock’s getting serious criticism from constituents over not doing anything about the situation with Yosemite National Park and the proposed firings of staff.
McClintock believed the issue has been blown out of proportion.
https://www.sfgate.com/california-parks/article/tom-mcclintock-thinks-yosemite-is-fine-20209454.php
Is it a surprise that Trump did not appoint Kyrsten Sinema, who voted against raising the minimum wage and against appointing a Democrat to the National Labor Relations Board, thereby crippling its work, to be secretary of labor?
She would have rejected it. Too busy cashing in.
That would probably be a pay cut for Sinema compared to her current gig as a cryptocurrency lobbyist.
Eh, Sinema belongs in No Labels. She's perfect for their agenda.
I don't Sinema would have accepted an appointment from Trump (If Haley or DeSantis had won the primary, she might have considered it, however-I think she'd be more comfortable being in a room alone with either of them.).
Right-Wing Donors and Foundations Spent $1 Billion to Keep People From Voting
The American Prospect: A new study documents the fortunes spent to suppress voting in 2024. There are many reasons Democrats had a poor showing on Election Day. One reason that isn’t getting enough attention is that conservative foundations and wealthy donors spent heavily on funding nonprofits that suppress voter participation, kick people off the voter rolls, and throw out legitimately cast ballots.
In the 2024 election, more people didn’t vote than voted for any one candidate…
There are, of course, many reasons why so many eligible voters didn’t vote. Right-wing funding of election deniers and anti–voting rights organizations are definitely part of the answer. Millions of people wanted to vote but were prevented from doing so. Others did vote, but their vote was wrongly rejected and was never counted.
That didn’t happen by accident…
https://prospect.org/politics/2025-03-12-right-wing-donors-foundations-spent-billion-keep-people-from-voting/
What is your evidence for this?
"Millions of people wanted to vote but were prevented from doing so."
This is an extremely bold claim, and almost certainly false. The fact is, voting is easy and straightforward in the three states that decided the election - Michigan has both no-excuse mail voting and in-person early voting, while Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have no-excuse mail voting. And both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have small precincts (particularly Pennsylvania and its cities), meaning that their voting locations are close by (and in the cities, within walking distance), and wait times are usually short. [Precinct size is a bigger issue in the South, but they deal with it by having extensive in-person early voting.]
The simple truth is that the people who didn't vote were simply too apathetic to vote. It's worth noting that Philadelphia, which has some of the smallest and most compact voting precincts of anywhere in America, also had the largest turnout drop of anywhere in Pennsylvania. Those people just didn't want to vote. Voter turnout here is never going to be as high as in places like Australia and parts of Europe - we'd need a massive culture shift to make that happen, and that would be a slow, gradual process.
I am citing the linked article and there are multiple references therein.* The American Prospect is not in the habit of making spurious claims.
Part of the math here is the large number of voters that have been improperly purged from voter rolls in Republican-controlled states. I would be really interested in seeing an exhaustive tabulation of those. I would be astonished if that does not exceed a million.
Let’s take an example: We know that Brian Kemp, while Secretary of State of Georgia yet a gubernatorial candidate, is credibly accused of improperly removing 340,000 voters from the voter rolls. Worth noting: Kemp beat Stacy Abrams by just 55,000 votes in 2018.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/brian-kemp-340000-voters-748165/
*) One of the sources cited is Greg Palast, of whom I am not a fan. I have read two of his books and I just don’t think he is rigorous enough. But Palast is just one of many sources cited by The Prospect.
Trump’s handling of the economy already deep in the hole, compared to thoughts during his first term. Question only becomes how much the GOP at this point fears bad poll numbers
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/12/trump-economy-poll-025740
They fear primaries far more than general elections. Too few seats in either chamber are even vaguely competitive. If they do anything it's going to be behind the scenes.
If only people had bothered to think about consequences before the election... Why are voters so consistently blase about their vote, only freaking out about the potential impact after the fact? Brexit, 2016, and 2024 all jump to mind. Huge "oh shit" moments for enough of the populace to have decisively changed the outcome, if it had happened before instead of after. I don't get it.
Nobody panics about hypotheticals I guess, probably thanks to recency/stability bias. Especially on this side of the pond
Yeah, I just get flabbergasted that there's no change after the very recent examples. His first administration isn't ancient history. The overwhelming majority of voters were there for it and would remember it.
Even operating under the awareness that electorates are lazy and largely do not care, and especially do not care about policy, it still surprises me. Not that they will be unhappy with the consequences of their vote. Instead it's the predictability of it all. We already went through this. The 2016 "oh no what have we done" dance I can at least get how they did that, even if I think it was painfully obvious in advance. But for 2024 they already did this! It was recent memory! It's like willful maleficence on their behalf, stubbornly doing something dumb only because they were warned how obviously dumb it is and intentionally ignoring that they have direct experience with it being dumb.
Sorry, I guess I'm ranting.
Although no paper work has been filed, Rep. Al Green apparently has a challenger. Mayra Guillén, whose sister, U.S. Army Spc. Vanessa Guillén, was murdered at Fort Cavazos and who has campaigned against the Army's lax treatment of sexual harassment and assault, announced that she would run in Texas's 9th Congressional District against Green. Guillén, who is a MAGAt, wrote: "After watching @RepAlGreen disrespect not only @POTUS last night, but our district, state and country, I believe it’s time for me to get into the fight like I did for my sister Vanessa Guillen!” She added: “It’s time to end the propaganda displayed by these politicians, and time to help support @POTUS and his amazing Admiration to Make America Great Again! Al Green I’m coming for your seat.” That is not a recipe for victory in the heavily blue 9th.
She'll fill a similar function as the various high profile challenges to AOC or McConnell have played. A money sink for the republican base that get excited about beating someone they hate, even though it's a fool's errand due to the district or state.
Let me get this straight: Mayra Guillén has campaigned vociferously against the Army’s lax treatment of sexual harassment – and yet she vehemently supports a man who has essentially been found culpable of raping E. Jean Carroll, has a long list of women who have credibly accused him of sexual abuse, and is on tape bragging about how he "grabs ’em by the pussy".
Makes perfect sense.
Don't try to make sense of it
Of course, MAGA sycophants whined about the Biden economy and then voted for a crook who has done everything possible to bring about a recession. They complained about America's place in the world and then voted for a Russian asset who has managed to antagonize all of this country's allies. They claimed that Biden was somehow corrupt but voted for a convicted felon and serial scammer.
Guillen is brainwashed. There's nothing else to explain her actions.
Good luck for Guillen. She's going to get the same kind of success challenging Rep. Al Green in TX-09 as AOC's GOP Challenger Tina Forte did back in 2022 and 2024.
IA-03: Three Democratic legislators considering challenging Nunn.
https://www.kcrg.com/2025/03/12/exclusive-three-iowa-legislators-consider-run-this-key-congressional-seat/
It's been hard to be optimistic about Iowa lately, but there have been two special state legislative elections in the last two months where the GOP either lost or only barely held on to what seemed to be safe seats, and this particular district has the state's largest Democratic base.
I'd like to see Sand take a shot at gov and of course those two U.S. house seats
This may be too soon to predict but I have an instinctive feeling IA could go back to being a swing state again if Democrats play their cards right. Can't say the same thing about OH though considering how it's moved to the right in the last several elections.
Democrats were fairly dominant on the presidential level in Iowa from 1988 to 2012. Losing only in 2004. They lost 3 times in Ohio during that time period.
Says a lot about how difficult OH is as a state for Democrats!
Interesting thing is, Biden did better than Clinton did back in 2016 even while losing the state. It only moved more to the right in 2024 where Harris lost by double digits.
Here are the margins Democrats lost IA by at the presidential level:
2016 - 9.6% (Clinton)
2020 - 8.2% (Biden)
2024 - 13.3% (Harris)
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/states/iowa
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/iowa
https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/iowa/?r=0
Dems have better potential in Ohio, honestly. Iowa has lurched even harder to the right than Ohio has and voted to its right in all three Trump races.
Perhaps comparing both IA and OH presidential election results might help:
2016:
IA - Trump won by 9.4% points
OH - Trump won by 8.1% points
2020:
IA - Trump won by 8.2% points
OH - Trump won by 8.1% points
2024:
IA - Trump won by 13.2% points
OH - Trump won by 11.2% points
Unlike IA, OH has not moved more in the Democratic Party's favor at all in the presidential elections from 2016-2024 (not even by 1% or less than 1%). A 1.2% drop in the margin of loss for Biden in IA back in 2020 is still better than his loss was in OH, where his margin of loss stayed the same as Clinton's back in 2016.
I agree that IA is still going to remain difficult for Democrats at the presidential level in the forseeable future. However, the 2020 presidential election results in IA + Senator Joni Ernst winning re-election by single digits + the success in turnout for off-year elections seems to show that Democrats are getting traction in IA.
When IA goes back to being a swing state that Democrats can win at the presidential level though is questionable.
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/president
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president
https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/us/results
The two state reps aren’t bad choices but Garriott would be a top-tier recruit, given she won three very tough state senate races in a row.
Canada: First poll since Carney was selected shows the race tied. And tied in Ontario. Which would probably mean a Liberal minority in such a scenario.
https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Leger-CAN_-10-March-2025_Voting_intentions-v2.pdf