Morning Digest: This is the most important election between now and next November

And it'll help determine the future of democracy in a critical swing state

Judge Susan Crawford has the Wisconsin Democratic Party’s support in a crucial race for the state Supreme Court (credit: Susan Crawford for Wisconsin Supreme Court)

Leading Off

WI Supreme Court

April's all-important battle for the Wisconsin Supreme Court—when majority control will once again be on the line—is shaping up as a showdown between Republican Brad Schimel, a former state attorney general, and Judge Susan Crawford, who just earned the endorsement of the state Democratic Party.

While elections for the Supreme Court are officially nonpartisan, they've divided along stark ideological lines for well over a decade, and next year's race will be no different. Though a few other names have circulated, Crawford and Schimel are the only declared candidates, and they've spent much of the past year consolidating support from their respective camps.

Should any further contenders jump in ahead of the Jan. 1 filing deadline, the state would host a top-two primary on Feb. 18, though Crawford and Schimel would be heavily favored to advance. If, on the other hand, no one else gets in, the pair would proceed directly to an April 1 face-off, a contest that will determine whether liberals retain their hard-won 4-3 advantage on the court.

That new progressive majority only took form in 2023 after 15 years of conservative dominance, when Milwaukee County Circuit Judge Janet Protasiewicz defeated conservative Dan Kelly, a former Supreme Court justice, in a 55-44 landslide.

Protasiewicz's victory had an immediate impact. For more than a decade, the court had rubber-stamped the agenda of GOP lawmakers, but late last year, it struck down gerrymandered maps Republicans had long used to lock in massive advantages in the state legislature. That led to the passage of the state's first fair maps in many years, which in turn allowed Democrats to make major gains in both chambers earlier this month and foil GOP supermajorities.

The new-look court is also set to rule on a challenge to an 1849 law that purports to ban nearly all abortions in the state. Thanks to that law, abortion providers in Wisconsin shut down for more than a year after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, not reopening until a lower court held it did not apply to consensual medical abortions. Now the state's top court is poised to uphold that ruling and eliminate all uncertainty about the legality of abortion in Wisconsin.

Republicans reacted to the court's changeover with predictable furor and even threatened to impeach Protasiewicz just weeks after she was sworn in. Now, though, they'll have the chance to win back the majority at the ballot box after the court's longest-serving member, Justice Ann Walsh Bradley, announced her retirement earlier this year.

Bradley, who first won a spot on the court in 1995, has long been the leader of the liberal bloc, which had not held sway ever since conservatives ran a nakedly racist campaign that succeeded in ousting the court’s first-ever Black member, Louis Butler, in 2008.

A broad alliance of Democrats and progressives is hoping to preserve the new majority it took them so long to reclaim and has rallied around Crawford, a judge on the Dane County Circuit Court, as its standard-bearer. Bradley has also endorsed Crawford as her preferred successor, as have Protasiewicz and the court's two other liberals, Jill Karofsky and Rebecca Dallett.

Conservatives are not moving quite so quickly. The state Republican Party has not formally taken sides, and the court's three conservative members have yet to weigh in. Schimel, though, has won the support of various law enforcement groups, and the Koch network's Americans for Prosperity recently backed his campaign.

Schimel became one of the most prominent Republicans in this perennially swing state after he was elected attorney general during the 2014 red wave, but Democrat Josh Kaul ousted him 49.4-48.8 four years later. Schimel, however, didn't need to spend much time looking for a new job: Gov. Scott Walker, who also lost reelection that evening to Democrat Tony Evers, made him a Waukesha County Circuit judge just before leaving office, skipping him ahead of 13 other applicants.

The matchup between Protasiewicz and Kelly smashed spending records, with at least $56 million deployed in total. Next year's titanic battle will likely eclipse that mark, and with the stakes so high, the race will easily prove to be the most important election between now and next November.

Senate

LA-Sen

Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta is considering a challenge to Sen. Bill Cassidy in what could be a busy 2026 Republican primary, according to a consultant for Skrmetta who spoke with The Hill's Caroline Vakil. Skrmetta will be termed out that year from his seat on the Louisiana Public Service Commission, a five-member body that regulates utilities.

Vakil also notes that political observers have mentioned outgoing Rep. Garret Graves as another possible primary foe. Graves declined to seek reelection after court-ordered redistricting made his seat considerably bluer. John Dupont recently wrote about speculation around Graves in Post South, concluding that "Graves and Cassidy have been cordial, but all is fair in love and politics."

Vakil adds that there are "some murmurs" about former Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards, who left office early this year due to term limits. Edwards would almost certainly be the strongest possible candidate Democrats could hope to field, but even he would struggle in a state that Donald Trump just carried 60-38.

Governors

CA-Gov

Kamala Harris has privately been "been instructing advisers and allies to keep her options open," reports Politico—options that could include another presidential campaign or a bid for governor in 2026. The same article notes that "the mere idea of her running again in California has frozen the field and kept some fundraisers on the sidelines."

Harris would not be the first unsuccessful White House aspirant to return home to the Golden State to seek the governorship. After narrowly losing the 1960 election to John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon challenged Democratic Gov. Pat Brown just two years later. Though the former vice president lost 52-47 and famously announced at what he called his "last" press conference, "You won't have Nixon to kick around any more," he later proved himself wrong and won the presidency in 1968.

FL-Gov

In what appear to be his first comments directly addressing the possibility of seeking higher office since resigning from Congress and abandoning his hopes of becoming Donald Trump's attorney general, former Rep. Matt Gaetz tweeted out a meme on Monday morning with the comment, "If I run for Florida Governor, it will be on a platform to outlaw frost." Is he really thinking about running, or is this just more trolling? The probable answer is yes.

ME-Gov

Two prominent Maine Democrats who could run for the state's open governorship in 2026, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and state Senate President Troy Jackson, both refused to comment when asked about their interest by the Bangor Daily News' Billy Kobin in recent days. Jackson is about to leave office due to term limits. 

So far, no notable candidates on either side have launched campaigns to succeed Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, who is barred by law from seeking a third consecutive term.

OH-Gov

Add Ohio's open governorship to the list of offices outgoing Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown isn't ruling out. In an interview on Sunday with CNN's Manu Raju, Brown repeatedly said he's "not dismissing" a comeback bid for the Senate (something he'd said before) or a run for governor (something he hadn't previously mentioned).

OK-Gov

Republican Rep. Kevin Hern just became the first notable candidate to express interest in a bid for Oklahoma's open governorship, telling News 9's Alex Cameron that he's considering the race to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Kevin Stitt in 2026. Interestingly, according to Cameron, one reason motivating Hern is that "trifectas don’t last, and that, historically, the House usually flips in the following midterm election."

But whether or not Republicans retain the House in two year's time, Hern could expect an easy campaign for reelection. That would not be the case if he seeks a promotion, since other ambitious pols are also certain to run.

Cameron calls state Attorney General Gentner Drummond, former state House Speaker Charles McCall, and State Superintendent Ryan Walters as "the favorites" in any such race, though one political analyst says a Hern entry could complicate matters for Drummond, since both share a base in Tulsa.

Notably, Oklahoma requires primary candidates to win a majority of the vote. If no one does, the top two vote-getters proceed to a runoff. That's what happened in 2018 when Stitt, a wealthy businessman, found himself trailing former Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett 29-24. Stitt, however, came back to win the GOP nomination 55-45 in the second round, then defeated Democrat Drew Edmonson, a former state attorney general, 54-42 in the fall.

House

FL-01

Donald Trump endorsed Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis on Monday morning even though Patronis had yet to announce that he would run in the Jan. 28 special GOP primary to replace former Rep. Matt Gaetz. Patronis, though, removed any uncertainty about his plans hours later when he submitted an irrevocable letter of resignation to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Monday was the deadline for any office-holders who want to run for the 1st District to submit such a document, a step that state Rep. Joel Rudman also took.

"[T]he good people here deserve a strong field of candidates and a robust Republican debate, not a coronation," Rudman wrote on social media. "I’m in."

But another member of the state House, Michelle Salzman, decided she didn't want to give up her place in the legislature for a tough primary against the Trump-backed Patronis. Salzman instead announced that she was dropping out of the primary and endorsing the CFO. Green Beret veteran John Frankman did the same, though the state's resign to run law doesn't impact him.

Three other Republicans had launched campaigns before Trump backed Patronis: former Escambia County Commissioner Gene Valentino, former Gaetz staffer Nathan Nelson, and Jeff Witt, a consultant who serves on Trump's transition team. It's not yet clear whether they plan to remain in the race, though they'll have to decide by the Dec. 6 candidate filing deadline.

P.S. While state law requires Patronis and Rudman to give up their current posts in order to run in the special election, it doesn't force them to quit immediately. Rudman's resignation will take effect on Jan. 1, while Patronis will leave office on March 31―one day before the general election for the dark red 1st.

FL-06

Donald Trump backed state Sen. Randy Fine to run in the forthcoming special election to replace Rep. Mike Waltz in Florida's 6th District on Saturday, even though Fine has yet to kick off a bid, Waltz had yet to resign, and Gov. Ron DeSantis had yet to schedule the election.

Two of those missing pieces snapped into place on Monday, though, when Waltz announced he would depart Congress (reportedly on Jan. 20) to become Trump's national security advisor and DeSantis revealed the timetable for replacing him.

Primaries will take place on Jan. 28 and a general election on April 1, the same schedule DeSantis unveiled late last week for the vacant 1st District. Candidates, though, have even less time to make up their minds: Would-be contenders must file by Dec. 7, while current office-holders must resign no later than today under Florida's "resign-to-run" law.

That rule applies to Fine, a now-former state representative who just won a bid for the state Senate and, under Florida law, immediately became a member of the upper chamber on Election Day. Fine responded to Trump's move by saying he would "have news to share soon" and teased on Monday evening that an announcement would be forthcoming early this morning.

A handful of other Republicans had expressed interest in seeking the conservative 6th District in the Daytona Beach area, and some had even launched campaigns, but all of those moves came before Trump bigfooted into the race, so it remains to be seen whether they'll stick with it.

FL-23

Republican state Rep. Chip LaMarca is not ruling out a bid against Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz, who just won reelection earlier this month by an uncomfortably close 52-48 margin over an unheralded opponent.

Moskowitz's 23rd District, which lies along the Fort Lauderdale coast in Broward County, had long been solid Democratic turf. Preliminary estimates, however, indicate that Kamala Harris performed considerably worse in the area than Joe Biden, who carried the district 56-43 four years ago.

South Florida Democrats got a hint of that decline two years ago, when Moskowitz secured his first term by a similarly soft 52-47 spread over another unknown Republican foe. In both of his campaigns, Moskowitz spent more than more than $1.5 million while his rivals spent in the low six figures and received little outside help. LaMarca, who represents a competitive district in the House but will be termed out in 2026, would be a much higher-caliber opponent.

Judges

MS Supreme Court

Ahead of today's runoff election for an eight-year term on the Mississippi Supreme Court, a conservative group is running radio ads and mailers claiming that the court "is in danger of being dominated by liberal justices"—despite the fact that it's overwhelmingly conservative.

The runoff in the competitive 1st District, which runs across the middle of the state, pits moderate Justice Jim Kitchens against Republican state Sen. Jenifer Branning, who led 41-36 in the first round of voting. In the presidential race, preliminary numbers show the vote was almost evenly divided between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

But as noted by Mississippi Today's Bobby Harrison, who first called attention to the ad campaign supporting Branning, Kitchens is the only incumbent on the nine-member court who earned his post "without either being appointed by a Republican governor or being endorsed by the state Republican Party."

Quinn Yeargain, a contributor to The Downballot and an expert on state constitutional law, further explained to Courtney Ann Jackson of WLBT that, while some other justices have joined with Kitchens on recent high-profile decisions, the conservative position has won every time. The balance on the court therefore won't change regardless of tonight's outcome, but a win for Kitchens in this officially nonpartisan race would increase the chances of future splits that go against conservatives.

State Legislatures

CA State Legislature

Two former U.S. House members from California, Democrats Laura Richardson and Jerry McNerney, successfully claimed seats in the state Senate this month, while former GOP Rep. George Radanovich fell short in his bid for the state Assembly. The three served together in Congress starting in August of 2007, when Richardson was sworn in following her victory in a special election, and when Radanovich's retirement took effect in January of 2011.

Richardson only learned Friday that she'd completed her comeback by narrowly defeating a fellow Democrat, former Compton City Councilmember Michelle Chambers, by a 51-49 margin for an open Senate seat in South Los Angeles.

Richardson had largely kept a low profile after losing to fellow Rep. Janice Hahn in a 60-40 landslide in 2012 after redistricting threw them into the same seat. Business interests, however, were very invested in her return to office, while labor groups backed Chambers. The end result was, according to California Target Book, at least $7.6 million worth of independent expenditures, which made the contest the priciest in the state this year.

McNerney, meanwhile, defeated Republican Jim Shoemaker 53-47 for an open Senate seat around Stockton. McNerney first won elected office in 2006 when that year's blue wave powered him to victory over Republican Rep. Richard Pombo. Though McNerney retired ahead of the 2022 elections, he unexpectedly announced last year that he'd campaign for the legislature.

Radanovich, finally, lost to fellow Republican David Tangipa 54-46 for a spot in the Assembly. Radanovich was elected to Congress during the 1994 GOP landslide by decisively unseating six-term Democratic Rep. Dick Lehman in the Central Valley and retired ahead of the 2010 elections.

He first sought a comeback in 2022 when he ran for the state Senate last year but narrowly finished third in the top-two primary behind two Democrats. (The eventual winner, Marie Alvarado-Gil, switched parties and joined the GOP in August.) Radanovich set his sights lower this year and ran for the Assembly, but while he made it to the general election this time, he fell short against Tangipa.

VA State House

Hotel developer JJ Singh won the Democratic nomination for Virginia's vacant 26th District in the state House at a firehouse primary on Saturday, defeating his nearest rival in the five-candidate field by a 41-23 margin.

Singh had the backing of former Del. Kannan Srinivasan, whose resignation created this vacancy. He'll now take on consultant Ram Venkatachalam, the Republican nominee, in the Jan. 7 special election that will determine whether Democrats retain their 51-49 majority in the House. According to preliminary calculations from The Downballot, Kamala Harris carried the district 59-37, a steep drop from Joe Biden's 67-32 four years earlier.

On the same day, Srinivasan will seek to defend the vacant 32nd Senate District against Republican Tumay Harding, a former teacher, in a chamber where Democrats hold a 21-19 advantage. That district experienced an almost identical trajectory in November, dropping from a 67-32 win for Biden to a 59-38 edge for Harris.

The special election in the 32nd became necessary after state Sen. Suhas Subramanyan won the race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton in the 10th Congressional District earlier this month. Should Republicans stage an upset, they would take control of the Senate because Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears would be able to break ties—at least in theory.

But Republicans are facing a strange complication thanks to state Sen. John McGuire, who still hasn't resigned his safely red seat despite winning his bid for the 5th Congressional District three weeks ago. McGuire's unexplained slow-walk increases the odds that Republicans will find themselves down a member when the legislature reconvenes on Jan. 8 since the new Congress begins five days earlier.

Mayors & County Leaders

Austin, TX Mayor

Nonprofit head Carmen Llanes Pulido announced Friday that she was conceding to Austin Mayor Kirk Watson. Watson, a Democrat, took 50.004% in the officially nonpartisan Nov. 5—just 14 votes more than he needed to avert a runoff. Llanes Pulido, who identifies as a progressive, outpaced her nearest opponent 20-17 for second place.

New York, NY Mayor

Former Assemblyman Michael Blake has entered next year's race for mayor of New York while also saying he's considering a bid to lead the DNC—and arguing he could perform both jobs at the same time. Blake, who served three terms in Albany, ran in a special election for public advocate in 2019, finishing fourth in a 17-candidate field with 8% of the vote. The following year, he sought the open 15th Congressional District but lost to City Councilman Ritchie Torress 32-18.