If I thought that was likely, I would have already moved to northern Spain.
We don't give up, we fight to limit damage, and run good candidates everywhere in 2026 and 2028.
I'm not suggesting we aren't going to have damage, some of it that may take decades to undo, but if Trump implements half of his proposals, and it results in the damage I suspect, we have a great chance to have Americans on our side in 2026 and beyond.
Seattle Mayor: to nobody’s surprise, Bruce Harrell has announced he’s running for re-election. If he wins - and as of today I’d say that modestly likely - he’ll be the first mayor to be re-elected since Greg Nickels in 2005. (Nickels was defeated in 2009 by McGinn, who was defeated by Murray in 2013. Who then it turned out had credible pedophilia allegations against him, and then Durkan was syphilis-level popular by 2021 and didn’t even bother running again).
Harrell imo has been pretty mediocre, like every mayor since Norm Rice retired 28 years ago. He’s unambitious on housing, though better on that front than the now-NIMBY City Council. But the key issue for the city the last 3-4 years has been public safety and QOL issues like other big West Coast cities and there one can see a major improvement, though there’s still a ways to go and 3rd Avenue remains a mess.
It’ll be interesting to see who the progressive faction digs up against him; it’s unlikely anybody credibly runs to his right and makes a runoff with him, but the “Stranger” types got absolutely bodied two cycles in a row after their triumphs of 2015-19. The pendulum will swing back their way eventually, but the COVID-era damage to their policy program will take a while to recover from
Ann Davidson being a bonafide Trumper will probably badly hurt her.
Statewide, Democrats picked well in the AG race this year going with Nick Brown rather than Manka Dhingra, but I’m not sure I trust Seattle voters to have that same type of discipline what with a lot of candidates likely to want a bite at it. If you have a liberal but normal DA candidate and Trump is as unpopular in Seattle next fall as he was last time around then Davidson is likely to lose, and lose badly (though she’ll get some Harrell voters for sure). But if they go with a Stranger candidate again then she has a narrow chance
The choices in 2021 were both not great. I’m hoping a serious candidate can take on Davidson without heading into Nicole Thomas-Kennedy territory. “People should not smoke fent on public buses” should not be a controversial position for a prosecutor
It was a top two primary, with the incumbent coming in 3rd, demonstrating the difficulties of trying to find a middle path on law and order issues. Nicole Thomas-Kennedy, the leftie, probably would have won the runoff if she hadn't made various tweets praising violence against the police prior to her run for office.
In a weird sense, was a relief that Rep. David Valadao won re-election in 2020 to represent the then-CA-21 district.
Imagine if TJ Cox had won re-election. He would have been a liability for Democrats although certainly he would have stepped down from the seat and a special election would have possibly given Democrats more leverage in maintaining the House seat.
It’s only Cox who has unseated Valadao. No one else has since 2022.
Could you offer more details? I am not familiar with Cox’s liabilities, nor why they would have been serious enough to compel him to step down soon after winning the election.
TJ Cox's legal problems were liable enough that they were an albatross on him for years. They ranged from not paying employees for a business he owned for years to the FBI charging him for wire fraud.
Although he planned on running for the House seat again in 2022, he ended up endorsing Rudy Salas as the Democratic Candidate towards the end of 2021 and left the race as a result.
Here are multiple stories as to just how big Cox's financial and legal problems were:
Ethics complaint filed against Cox citing failed reporting of business ties
TJ Cox made history as being the first Filipino-American in Congress when he unseated David Valadao back in 2018. Back then, the CA-21 race then took weeks to get all the votes counted.
However, since fellow Filipino Democrat Rob Bonta has been serving as CA Attorney General since 2021, the significance of Cox's election in the House has been diminished.
So somebody imported a dataset into DRA of the precinct-level election results from this year's election in New York City. And I've been looking through that.
Frankly, it's really kind of appalling how terribly Harris did in NYC. Neighborhoods like Dyker Heights and Bensonhurst are almost uniformly 60%+ for Trump. The entire Flushing area of Queens is now purple, if not red in some areas. Ozone Park, Woodhaven, and Richmond Hill are now less than 60% Democratic. Precincts in Corona that are heavily Hispanic and gave Biden 70% now voted for Trump. And the South Bronx, once home to the bluest congressional district in the entire country, is now only 70% Democratic. In some precincts, Harris got less than half of the votes that Biden did. (And Hillary generally did even better than Biden in those precincts.) What happened?!?!?
Another thing I noticed is that Harris got only about 92-93% in the heavily African-American precincts. She clearly didn't receive any sort of bump in support from them due to her own African-American heritage. And yet Obama generally got >99% of the vote in those same precincts. Did African-Americans not consider Harris's candidacy historic since she wasn't the first Black presidential nominee? Or, I can't help but wonder if the reason why Obama won almost unanimous support from African-Americans wasn't just because he was Black (as many people claimed after the 2008 election), and that the economic crash just before the 2008 election that happened on Republicans' watch (a factor that Harris didn't have) was also a major factor (meaning that Obama might have only got 96% or so of the African-American vote if the economy had been doing fine).
The sorry state of local governance in NYC (starting with De Blasio and Cuomo and accelerating remarkably with Adams and Hochul) is, I think, a big part of this. There’s a key part of the coalition that simply has tuned out of what the party is selling in that area. Everything there seems to point to turnout collapse rather than persuasive flips with the exception of Haredi Jews
And yes I do think that Obama might have landed more 95-96% sans the 2008 crash. IIRC he dropped off a bit with black voters by 2012, though by only a small amount
Hochul and Adams are so terrible for the NY dem party we'd be forgiven for thinking they're deliberate saboteurs. Adams, at least, seems reasonably capable of being tossed in a primary next year. Not guaranteed but not a stretch, either. Hochul needs a serious opponent to show up first for me to feel that way.
Possible, I think he'd get absolutely clobbered as a non-dem though. Maybe if he was better liked and had some core constituencies locked down. I'm not super familiar with NYC politics though so what do I know?
I think we should take Trump’s campaign strategy seriously. When he said Harris just turned black yesterday, there was a reason for that. The smarty pants people calling it racist aren’t who that message was for. The Trump campaign pretty much did everything they said they would do when it comes to how he’d win.
If I thought that was likely, I would have already moved to northern Spain.
We don't give up, we fight to limit damage, and run good candidates everywhere in 2026 and 2028.
I'm not suggesting we aren't going to have damage, some of it that may take decades to undo, but if Trump implements half of his proposals, and it results in the damage I suspect, we have a great chance to have Americans on our side in 2026 and beyond.
Trump’s single positive trait is this: his malevolence is tempered by massive incompetence.
His lack of discipline and his incompetence give us great hope.
Termed-out Nevada AG Aaron Ford running for Governor in 2026
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/nevada-attorney-general-aaron-ford-says-he-intends-to-run-for-governor
Excellent get right off the bat!
Good get
Seattle Mayor: to nobody’s surprise, Bruce Harrell has announced he’s running for re-election. If he wins - and as of today I’d say that modestly likely - he’ll be the first mayor to be re-elected since Greg Nickels in 2005. (Nickels was defeated in 2009 by McGinn, who was defeated by Murray in 2013. Who then it turned out had credible pedophilia allegations against him, and then Durkan was syphilis-level popular by 2021 and didn’t even bother running again).
Harrell imo has been pretty mediocre, like every mayor since Norm Rice retired 28 years ago. He’s unambitious on housing, though better on that front than the now-NIMBY City Council. But the key issue for the city the last 3-4 years has been public safety and QOL issues like other big West Coast cities and there one can see a major improvement, though there’s still a ways to go and 3rd Avenue remains a mess.
It’ll be interesting to see who the progressive faction digs up against him; it’s unlikely anybody credibly runs to his right and makes a runoff with him, but the “Stranger” types got absolutely bodied two cycles in a row after their triumphs of 2015-19. The pendulum will swing back their way eventually, but the COVID-era damage to their policy program will take a while to recover from
What about for the DA race that Dems bungled last time by somehow boosting an anarcho-commie (no joke, she was) to the runoff?
Ann Davidson being a bonafide Trumper will probably badly hurt her.
Statewide, Democrats picked well in the AG race this year going with Nick Brown rather than Manka Dhingra, but I’m not sure I trust Seattle voters to have that same type of discipline what with a lot of candidates likely to want a bite at it. If you have a liberal but normal DA candidate and Trump is as unpopular in Seattle next fall as he was last time around then Davidson is likely to lose, and lose badly (though she’ll get some Harrell voters for sure). But if they go with a Stranger candidate again then she has a narrow chance
She is? That sounds like a big blunder.
IIRC she joined the GOP in 2020.
She’s very quietly kept her head down as city prosecutor but don’t think it won’t come up
She's stated multiple times that she voted for Hillary and Biden: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/seattle-city-attorney-rivals-face-blowback-over-anti-police-tweets-republican-affiliation/. I'm not a supporter of hers (although I would have voted for her over Thomas-Kennedy who represents exactly the kind of public figure that cost us votes in the 2024 general election, if I lived inside the city limits) but I don't think she's a Trumper either.
Hmm, fair.
The choices in 2021 were both not great. I’m hoping a serious candidate can take on Davidson without heading into Nicole Thomas-Kennedy territory. “People should not smoke fent on public buses” should not be a controversial position for a prosecutor
I wouldn't be surprised that if NTK had gotten elected, she'd have made Chesa Boudin look like Wyatt Earp.
It was a top two primary, with the incumbent coming in 3rd, demonstrating the difficulties of trying to find a middle path on law and order issues. Nicole Thomas-Kennedy, the leftie, probably would have won the runoff if she hadn't made various tweets praising violence against the police prior to her run for office.
She also called for seizing unoccupied apartments and hovels to start a commune or some kind of balderdash.
Regarding TJ Cox:
In a weird sense, was a relief that Rep. David Valadao won re-election in 2020 to represent the then-CA-21 district.
Imagine if TJ Cox had won re-election. He would have been a liability for Democrats although certainly he would have stepped down from the seat and a special election would have possibly given Democrats more leverage in maintaining the House seat.
It’s only Cox who has unseated Valadao. No one else has since 2022.
Could you offer more details? I am not familiar with Cox’s liabilities, nor why they would have been serious enough to compel him to step down soon after winning the election.
TJ Cox's legal problems were liable enough that they were an albatross on him for years. They ranged from not paying employees for a business he owned for years to the FBI charging him for wire fraud.
Although he planned on running for the House seat again in 2022, he ended up endorsing Rudy Salas as the Democratic Candidate towards the end of 2021 and left the race as a result.
Here are multiple stories as to just how big Cox's financial and legal problems were:
Ethics complaint filed against Cox citing failed reporting of business ties
https://sjvsun.com/news/politics/ethics-complaint-filed-against-cox-citing-failed-reporting-of-business-ties/
With $145k in unpaid taxes, Cox votes against bill to disclose liens, garnish wages
https://sjvsun.com/news/politics/facing-145k-in-unpaid-taxes-cox-votes-against-bill-to-disclose-liens-garnish-wages/
California congressman took 2 years to pay wages he owed to Canadian workers https://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/article234047417.html
TJ Cox pocketed 35% of funds spent by PAC hoping to gin up Valley voter enthusiasm
https://sjvsun.com/news/politics/tj-cox-pocketed-35-of-funds-spent-for-pac-hoping-to-gin-up-valley-voter-enthusiasm/
Former Member of Congress Charged with Multiple Fraud Schemes
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-member-congress-charged-multiple-fraud-schemes
I was going to add something:
TJ Cox made history as being the first Filipino-American in Congress when he unseated David Valadao back in 2018. Back then, the CA-21 race then took weeks to get all the votes counted.
However, since fellow Filipino Democrat Rob Bonta has been serving as CA Attorney General since 2021, the significance of Cox's election in the House has been diminished.
Thank you for your detailed response.
So somebody imported a dataset into DRA of the precinct-level election results from this year's election in New York City. And I've been looking through that.
Frankly, it's really kind of appalling how terribly Harris did in NYC. Neighborhoods like Dyker Heights and Bensonhurst are almost uniformly 60%+ for Trump. The entire Flushing area of Queens is now purple, if not red in some areas. Ozone Park, Woodhaven, and Richmond Hill are now less than 60% Democratic. Precincts in Corona that are heavily Hispanic and gave Biden 70% now voted for Trump. And the South Bronx, once home to the bluest congressional district in the entire country, is now only 70% Democratic. In some precincts, Harris got less than half of the votes that Biden did. (And Hillary generally did even better than Biden in those precincts.) What happened?!?!?
Another thing I noticed is that Harris got only about 92-93% in the heavily African-American precincts. She clearly didn't receive any sort of bump in support from them due to her own African-American heritage. And yet Obama generally got >99% of the vote in those same precincts. Did African-Americans not consider Harris's candidacy historic since she wasn't the first Black presidential nominee? Or, I can't help but wonder if the reason why Obama won almost unanimous support from African-Americans wasn't just because he was Black (as many people claimed after the 2008 election), and that the economic crash just before the 2008 election that happened on Republicans' watch (a factor that Harris didn't have) was also a major factor (meaning that Obama might have only got 96% or so of the African-American vote if the economy had been doing fine).
The sorry state of local governance in NYC (starting with De Blasio and Cuomo and accelerating remarkably with Adams and Hochul) is, I think, a big part of this. There’s a key part of the coalition that simply has tuned out of what the party is selling in that area. Everything there seems to point to turnout collapse rather than persuasive flips with the exception of Haredi Jews
And yes I do think that Obama might have landed more 95-96% sans the 2008 crash. IIRC he dropped off a bit with black voters by 2012, though by only a small amount
Hochul and Adams are so terrible for the NY dem party we'd be forgiven for thinking they're deliberate saboteurs. Adams, at least, seems reasonably capable of being tossed in a primary next year. Not guaranteed but not a stretch, either. Hochul needs a serious opponent to show up first for me to feel that way.
Adams may not run as a Democrat. Assuming he runs.
Possible, I think he'd get absolutely clobbered as a non-dem though. Maybe if he was better liked and had some core constituencies locked down. I'm not super familiar with NYC politics though so what do I know?
He’s going to be clobbered anyway; he’s toast
I think we should take Trump’s campaign strategy seriously. When he said Harris just turned black yesterday, there was a reason for that. The smarty pants people calling it racist aren’t who that message was for. The Trump campaign pretty much did everything they said they would do when it comes to how he’d win.
It wasn't a strategy, that was just Trumps racism and he dropped it pretty quickly because it wasn't working.
BECAUSE SHE IS A REPUBLICAN
Who…?not following you here