Morning Digest: Top GOP recruit bails on race for reddest Democratic House seat

Republicans have an alternative, but boy howdy do they hate him

Republican Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, a now-former candidate Alaska’s at-large U.S. House seat (Credit: Nancy Dahlstrom commercial)

Leading Off

AK-AL

Republican Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom unexpectedly announced on Friday that she was ending her campaign against Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola for Alaska's sole House seat and removing her name from the general election ballot, a move that came three days after she took a disappointing third place in the state's top-four primary. 

Dahlstrom, in a press release explaining her decision, did not mention businessman Nick Begich, who is now the only major Republican running in November's ranked-choice general election. But while many Republicans will be relieved that Dahlstrom and Begich won't be spending the next few months attacking one another, Democrats have reason to think that the ugly feelings lingering from Begich's two failed campaigns for this seat in 2022 have left him too damaged to win on his third try.

Those beliefs are shared by Republicans, whose top echelons—including Donald Trump, the National Republican Congressional Committee, and the party's powerful Congressional Leadership Fund—all endorsed Dahlstrom over Begich. The GOP, though, is now stuck with a man that Trump claimed "has Democrat tendencies."

While Begich does indeed hail from Alaska's most prominent Democratic family, he was a supporter of longtime Republican Rep. Don Young. (Young was elected in a 1973 special election to replace Begich's late grandfather and namesake.) Begich chaired Young's 2020 reelection campaign and, at Young's invitation, later spent about a month interning in the congressman's congressional office.

Not long after, though, Begich announced that he would seek to unseat the very man who had just served as his boss. The new candidate would go on to say that what he'd seen in the nation's capital—including claims that he witnessed fellow aides "forwarding the phones to voicemail so they could watch episodes of 'Friends'"—convinced him that Alaska needed change. Indignant members of Young's vast political network, however, argued that Begich was already planning his campaign when he joined the team.

One particularly incensed Young aide was a former communications director, Zack Brown, who in 2022 posted a picture of Begich's congressional intern badge in a scathing (and since-deleted) tweet.

"Begich was planning on primarying Young all along," he wrote. "He used DY & staff to secure inside info." Brown continued, "According to FEC docs, he claimed campaign expenses BEFORE he came on as an INTERN in Don Young's office. He KNEW he was going to primary Young before he joined our office, but used the Congressman and staff for his own ends anyway. Disgraceful."

Young himself had some harsh words for his former intern shortly before the congressman died aboard a plane in March of 2022. A month earlier, at a state GOP convention, Young said that, while he knew Begich wanted to be a congressman, he warned him off a challenge.

"And right off the bat, he hired my campaign manager," Young continued. "That really pissed me—excuse me—that really made me mad. You know, that's not loyalty."

Young's death prompted a special election, and Begich was one of 48 candidates who filed to run in a race that featured America's first-ever top-four primary. But after Begich advanced to the general against former Republican Gov. Sarah Palin and Peltola (a fourth finisher, independent Al Gross, dropped out), it looked likely that one of the two Republicans would prevail: Not only had Trump carried Alaska 53-43 in 2020, GOP candidates collectively took 57% in the primary versus just 17% for Democrats.

Begich and Palin, though, refused to accept that ranked-choice voting should have made them natural allies. Instead, they unloaded on one another in furious fashion while ignoring Peltola―except when they were smiling in selfies with her.

That gave the Democrat the opening she needed. An unscathed Peltola went into ranked-choice tabulations with 40% of first-choice votes in the general election, with Palin edging out Begich 31-28 for second. But thanks to the fratricidal GOP campaign, only half of Begich's backers listed Palin as their second choice. Fully 29% backed Peltola while a crucial 21% didn't express a preference for either finalist. The end result was an astonishing 51-49 upset for Peltola.

All three candidates, plus Libertarian Chris Bye, competed again in November for a full two-year term, but things went even worse for the GOP during this second campaign. 

Begich and his allies pointed to data from the Alaska Division of Elections saying that he'd have defeated Peltola 52-48 had he come in second place in the special election to make his case that conservatives should choose him over Palin. But several of Young's former staffers not only endorsed Peltola, who had enjoyed a close relationship with the late congressman for decades, they also vocally aired their grievances against Begich for what they saw as his duplicity.

Peltola this time almost took a majority of first-choice ballots, scoring 49% as Palin once again staggered into second place, beating out Begich 26-23. Peltola then crushed Palin in a 55-45 drubbing after the instant-runoff process was finished. To add insult to injury for Begich, election data showed he would have lost by a slightly larger margin than Palin this time―just under 11 points―had he taken second.

An undeterred Begich launched his third effort in July of last year, but his legion of critics thought they might finally move past him when Dahlstrom entered the race a few months later. Begich argued that the party could avoid more infighting if the Republican who took third place in Tuesday's top-four primary—there was no question Peltola would be in first—dropped out, and he pledged to do just that. Dahlstrom, for her part, insisted she'd continue on to November no matter what.

The primary results, however, changed the calculus. With about 96,000 ballots tabulated as of Monday, which the Associated Press estimates represents 88% of the total vote, Peltola was sitting on a 50.4% majority. Begich, meanwhile, leads Dahlstrom 27-20, and while both Republicans initially said they'd remain in the race after Tuesday, the lieutenant governor reversed course on Friday.

Because Dahlstrom dropped out more than 64 days ahead of the general election, her decision will allow the fifth-place finisher to appear on the November ballot. It's not quite clear yet, though, who that candidate will be, or which party they'll represent. 

Two little-known candidates, Republican Matthew Salisbury and John Wayne Howe of the secessionist Alaska Independence Party, are respectively taking fourth and fifth place with 0.6% of the vote each, while Democrat Eric Hafner is just behind with 0.4%. Gerald Heikes, a Republican perennial candidate whom national Democrats spent close to $1 million to elevate, trails Hafner by all of three votes.

While Republicans are now stuck with Begich, they still have reason to hope that Peltola―despite her dominant showing on Tuesday―won't be able to win enough crossover support in a state that Trump is almost certain to carry again. (The only Democrat to secure Alaska's electoral votes was Lyndon Johnson, whose 1964 landslide win took place five years after it became the nation's 49th state.)

The two main GOP House groups, the NRCC and CLF, together have spent or reserved over $7 million in ad time, while national Democrats have yet to book anything. However, as with any ad reservations, these bookings can be canceled if Republicans decide their candidate no longer merits the investment. It remains to be seen whether their opinions of Begich have shifted sufficiently to conclude that he's still worth their while.

House

NH-02

Supporters of former Biden administration official Maggie Goodlander have released a new poll that shows her with a 36-26 lead over former Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern in the Sept. 10 Democratic primary for New Hampshire's 2nd District. However, those numbers represent a considerable decline for Goodlander despite heavy outside spending on her behalf—according to data from her own allies.

The Principled Veterans Fund, which has been one of Goodlander's top backers, appears to have been the sponsor of both this new poll and a previous survey from early July that had their preferred candidate ahead by a much larger 35-13 margin. Both polls were conducted by the same firm, Public Policy Polling.

The newer numbers, however, are more closely aligned with other recent surveys from a pair of local schools. The first, from Saint Anselm College, put Goodlander ahead 41-31, while the second, from the University of New Hampshire, had Goodlander up by a smaller 34-28 margin.

To date, Goodlander had enjoyed a lopsided advantage in outside spending, benefitting from almost $900,000 put toward TV and mail on her behalf. Most of that has come since Principled Veterans' July poll. It's not clear, however, just how widely the group was expecting to share this new polling, as the poll appeared on an X account with just six followers. (Fortunately, the eagle eyes at 538 spotted it.)

Also backing Goodlander are EMILYs List and VoteVets, which has been responsible for about half of the total spent on her. Van Ostern, meanwhile, has received just a small boost from the centrist New Democrats, who've deployed about $40,000 for mailers attacking Goodlander.

TX-18

Candidate filing closed in Texas on Thursday for the Nov. 5 special election for the remaining two months of the late Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, but the only Democrat who put her name forward was the congresswoman's daughter, Erica Lee Carter. Carter, who is a former member of the Harris County Department of Education Board of Trustees, should have no trouble against a pair of Republicans in the safely blue 18th District. A runoff would only be required if no one wins a majority of the vote.

Carter's tenure will be short because Democratic leaders in Harris County voted earlier this month to make former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner the party's new nominee for a full two-year term in the 119th Congress. Turner, who had Carter's endorsement, decided not to run in the special election and instead backed her campaign. Turner has pledged to serve a maximum of two terms, so Carter may get an opening to return to Congress before long.

Ballot Measures

AK Ballot

The Alaska Supreme Court on Thursday rejected a lawsuit that could have prevented a ballot measure to repeal the state's unique top-four primary system from going before voters this fall. The decision means that opponents of the state's current system now have the chance to pass Ballot Measure 2, which would reintroduce traditional party primaries and end the use of ranked-choice voting to decide general elections.

No matter what happens, however, this year's races will still be conducted under existing rules―including Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola's reelection campaign in Alaska's at-large U.S. House seat.

MT Ballot

Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen on Thursday certified two proposed constitutional amendments that would change the state's electoral system, but election reformers need both to pass to advance their goal of bringing a top-four primary system to the Treasure State.

One of these amendments, Ballot Issue 12, would replace Montana's partisan primaries with a top-four setup. However, it doesn't include any rules for how voting in the general election would work, likely to avoid running afoul of the state's "single-subject" rule for ballot measures.

To fill this gap, supporters are also promoting a second amendment, Ballot Issue 13, that would require affected elections to be decided "by majority vote" rather than "by a plurality." Both amendments would apply to the same set of elections: those for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, statewide posts, and the legislature, as well as "other offices as provided by law."

Notably, though, Ballot Issue 13 does not require the use of ranked-choice voting. Montana's Republican-run legislature banned that method of voting last year, so it's not clear what system the state would use to ensure winners secure a majority of the vote if voters were to approve the amendment.

NE Ballot

Nebraska Secretary of State Robert Evnen announced on Friday that dueling amendments on abortion had both qualified for the November ballot, in all likelihood marking the first time the state has ever featured opposing measures in the same election.

One amendment, spearheaded by a group called Protect Our Rights, would guarantee the right to an abortion until fetal viability, which takes place around 22 to 24 weeks into pregnancy.

The other, backed by an organization known as Protect Women and Children, would enshrine the 12-week ban that the state's Republican-run legislature approved last year into the state constitution. It would also allow lawmakers to pass more restrictive bans, something that Republican Gov. Jim Pillen previewed last year when he pledged to "end abortion."

Evnen's office said in a press release that, to its knowledge, "Nebraska has never before had two conflicting petition efforts make the same ballot." Should both win a majority of the vote, the amendment with the highest vote total would become law.

Judges

MI Supreme Court

Michigan Republicans nominated Branch County Judge Patrick William O'Grady and state Rep. Andrew Fink at their convention on Saturday for a pair of seats on the state Supreme Court that the party needs to sweep to reverse Democrats’ current 4-3 majority. O'Grady and Fink will respectively take on Justice Kyra Harris Bolden and University of Michigan Law School professor Kimberly Ann Thomas, who each won the Democratic convention that same day without opposition.

O'Grady beat attorney Alexandria Taylor the day after a third candidate, 2022 attorney general nominee Matthew DePerno, dropped out and endorsed O'Grady. (The candidates' vote totals were not immediately available.) Taylor, for her part, says she provided guest tickets to ousted former state party chair Kristina Karamo, whom police ended up escorting out of the event.

Fink, meanwhile, defeated Court of Appeals Judge Mark Boonstra, who had Donald Trump's endorsement, to secure the nomination to succeed retiring GOP Justice David Viviano. Boonstra and Thomas will face off for a full eight-year term, while O'Grady and Bolden are competing for the final four years of the term that Democrat Bridget McCormack won in 2020 before stepping down two years later.

We detailed both of these contests, as well as an unusual rule that could help Bolden, in our last Digest.

Prosecutors & Sheriffs

Miami-Dade County, FL Sheriff

Democrat James Reyes earned a cross-party endorsement Friday from Miami-Dade Police Department Major Jose Aragu, who took 9% of the vote earlier in the week in the busy Republican primary for Miami-Dade County sheriff. Reyes will take on the candidate who defeated Aragu, Rosie Cordero-Stutz, who has the backing of Donald Trump. The two will compete in the first election for sheriff of Florida's largest county since the 1960s.

Other Races

WA Land Commissioner

Secretary of State Steve Hobbs has ordered a hand recount of the results of Washington's top-two primary for commissioner of public lands after certified totals placed Democrat Dave Upthegrove just 51 votes ahead of Republican Sue Kuehl Pederson for the second slot in the November general election.

Under state law, recounts are mandatory when the difference between two candidates is under 1,000 votes and also less than one-quarter of one percent of the two candidates' vote totals. (That 51-vote gap amounts to just 0.0064%.) It's not clear exactly when the recount will begin since each of the state's 39 counties will conduct its own, but in a press release, Hobbs' office said it expects it to take seven business days.

According to that same statement, the primary for land commissioner is the closest in state history. The previous record-holder was a nonpartisan primary for superintendent of public instruction in 1960 that resulted in a 252-vote difference between the candidates. At the time, Washington was a little over a third its present size.

Whoever prevails in the upcoming recount will face former Republican Rep. Jamie Herrera Beutler in the general election.

Ad Roundup

• MO-Sen: Lucas Kunce (D) - anti-Josh Hawley (R-inc)

• NV-Sen: Jacky Rosen (D-inc) (in Spanish); One Nation - anti-Rosen

• CA-47: Dave Min (D)

• CT-05: George Logan (R)

• IA-03: Zach Nunn (R-inc)

• PA-08: Rob Bresnahan (R) - anti-Matt Cartwright (D-inc)