Morning Digest: Trump's choice joins Arizona governor's race, but GOP voters may prefer a purer strain of MAGA

Karrin Taylor Robson faces a Freedom Caucus-shaped obstacle on her path to the nomination

Arizona Republican Karrin Taylor Robson (credit: Karrin Taylor Robson Facebook)

Leading Off

AZ-Gov

Wealthy businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson launched her new campaign for governor of Arizona on Wednesday with a video whose sole topic is that she's Donald Trump's choice.

But despite that ardent backing from MAGA's master, who pledged in December that Robson was "going to have my support," the new candidate still has to hold off a hardline foe next year before she can focus on beating Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs.

That obstacle is Rep. Andy Biggs, who kicked off his campaign weeks ago and has the support of some of the conservatives who've trashed Robson—and questioned Trump for getting behind her.

One such Biggs fan is state Sen. Jake Hoffman, who said that Trump "should fire whichever executive consultant or staffer told him to endorse the UniParty McCain network candidate for Arizona governor" late last year.

Hoffman, who chairs the state's branch of the nihilistic Freedom Caucus, added that Robson lost the 2022 primary for governor "for a reason." He continued, "Arizona doesn't want her open borders, pro-amnesty liberal policies. KTR is the Swamp."

Another Biggs enthusiast, far-right troll Laura Loomer, highlighted Robson's appearance in a 2022 TV ad promoting a successful ballot measure to allow undocumented high school graduates to qualify for in-state college tuition. Loomer linked Robson to Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego in a tweet directed at Trump that lamented, "This vetting crisis needs to be addressed."

Other prominent MAGA exponents have already consolidated behind Biggs, though they've refrained from criticizing Trump or his team. Biggs' supporters include Rep. Eli Crane and activist Charlie Kirk—even though Trump delivered his pre-endorsement of Robson at an event for Kirk's Turning Point USA.

It's also possible that another Republican will decide to test Robson—and by extension Trump. Treasurer Kimberly Yee, who is termed out of her current post, said in December that she'd "been asked to seriously consider running" against Hobbs. But Yee, who dropped out of the 2022 primary for governor after struggling to raise money, hasn't said anything new over the ensuing weeks.

Robson, a former member of the Arizona Board of Regents, previously found herself at odds with the GOP's far-right base during her first bid to lead the Grand Canyon State. Robson had the support of termed-out Gov. Doug Ducey, who was toxic in MAGA circles for refusing to go along with Trump's efforts to steal the 2020 election. Trump instead delivered his coveted endorsement to Kari Lake, a former local TV anchor who was happy to spread his lies.

Robson, who poured over $15 million of her own money into her campaign, massively outspent Lake in an ugly primary. But while Robson used her huge war chest to highlight her opponent's past support for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, Lake held on and prevailed 48-43. Hobbs went on to narrowly win in the fall, an outcome that made her the state's first Democratic governor in 14 years.

Robson considered running for the Senate the following cycle only to pass on the race, but she was hardly quiet during the 2024 campaign. She was part of a successful effort that helped Republicans expand their majorities in both chambers of the legislature, and she joined Trump in backing Lake's failed campaign against Gallego. Trump rewarded her in December by urging her to run for governor again and promising that this time, she'd be his candidate.

The Downballot Podcast

Dave Weigel on surviving the news onslaught

Dave Weigel's ubiquitous coverage of elections has been indispensable reading for years, so it's our pleasure to welcome him as our guest on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Dave, a veteran reporter now at Semafor, details how his attention to grassroots politics has helped him build unusual levels of trust with so many sources on both sides of the aisle. He also offers a thoughtful guide to handling the news onslaught that's accompanied the second Trump era and explains why races for party chair—whether of the DNC or RNC—seldom bring ideological shifts.

The two other Davids—co-hosts Nir and Beard, of course—dive into the wreckage in New York City, where a letter from Trump's Justice Department letting Mayor Eric Adams off the hook has blown up all semblance of the rule of law. But if there's any recompense, it's that Adams' political career looks just as doomed now as it did a week ago. They also catch listeners up on the latest regarding a New York special election and the resolution of a long power struggle in the Minnesota House.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

Senate

GA-Sen

Another poll seemingly designed to entice Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp to run for the Senate finds him beating Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff while other Republicans trail. The late January survey from the Tyson Group, a GOP firm, puts Kemp up 49-42 over Ossoff. That same set of respondents, though, finds the Democrat leading Rep. Buddy Carter 47-39 and defeating Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene 51-39.

It's not clear what Tyson's interest in the race is, but a similar poll from the hard-right Club for Growth last month showed Kemp ahead of Ossoff 46-40 but Ossoff up 45-32 on Carter and with similar leads against three other Republicans. NRSC chair Tim Scott recently told Semafor's Burgess Everett that Kemp is the GOP's "number one recruit," but the governor has kept everyone guessing about his intentions.

Governors

CA-Gov

Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco will run for governor of California, reports Politico's Christopher Cadelago, and has a "major announcement" of an unspecified nature planned for Monday. Bianco, who was first elected in 2018, has made a name for himself as a vocal supporter of Donald Trump thanks to frequent appearances on Fox News.

He'd be the first notable Republican to enter the race for a post the GOP last won in 2006, when Arnold Schwarzenegger secured reelection. Multiple major Democrats are already running, but the contest could get upended if Kamala Harris decides to join.

MN-Gov

Attorney Jim Schultz, a Republican who narrowly lost the 2022 race to serve as Minnesota's attorney general, says he's open to running for governor. He told the Minnesota Star Tribune's Ryan Faircloth that "it has been gratifying to receive so much encouragement to run statewide again" but added that he wouldn't decide on anything soon since his wife just gave birth to the couple's fourth child.

Two Republicans who unsuccessfully ran for governor last time have also confirmed earlier reports about their interest in another effort. Former state Sen. Scott Jensen, who fell to Democratic incumbent Tim Walz 52-45, informed Faircloth he's "strongly considering" a rematch. Businessman Kendall Qualls, who bowed out after losing to Jensen at the GOP's statewide convention, said last month he hopes to make his own decision "soon."

Rep. Pete Stauber, however, put to rest chatter that he could seek the governorship. Walz himself has yet to commit to seeking a third term next year and says he likely won't decide any earlier than June.

NJ-Gov

Former Senate President Steve Sweeney is going on the air for the first time ahead of June's Democratic primary for governor, promising to be "tough on crime" in his inaugural spot. The New Jersey Globe says Sweeney is spending "seven figures" for an ad buy on digital and streaming platforms. Sweeney faces five other notable contenders for his party's nomination.

NM-Gov

Deb Haaland hasn't quite cleared the Democratic field since kicking off her campaign for governor of New Mexico on Tuesday, but ensuing developments suggest things are headed that way.

The current (and term-limited) occupant of the post Haaland is seeking, fellow Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham, didn't endorse the new contender following her launch but spoke well of her, calling her "a formidable candidate for governor and clear front-runner early in the 2026 race" in a statement. Lujan Grisham hedged somewhat, though, adding that she "look[s] forward to following the race as additional candidates throw their hats in the ring."

EMILYs List, however, did not hold back. The influential group, which supports pro-choice Democratic women, gave its endorsement to Haaland on Wednesday. And another would-be rival, Attorney General Raul Torrez, appeared to take his name out of contention, indicating in a statement he'd seek reelection instead.

The only other potential Democrat whose name has circulated lately, Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman, also doesn't sound enthused. In a statement responding to questions about his interest, Bregman would only say, "Right now, I am focused on fighting crime and working with legislators to pass good crime legislation for the safety of New Mexicans."

Republicans, meanwhile, have yet to land a candidate, though KOAT's Corey Howard reports that former state Supreme Court Justice Judith Nakamura, who'd previously been mentioned as a possibility, now says she's considering, though there's no direct quote from her. A few other Republican names have previously come up, but only one, Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, has said he's weighing a bid.

SC-Gov

Just five days after Thomas Ravenel tweeted that he was "running for Governor of South Carolina and none of the lightweights currently in the race are going to stop me," the lightweights have stopped him.

Ravenel, who quit both his job as state treasurer and his role on a reality TV show in disgrace, posted on Tuesday evening that "this is not the time for me to be running." The former GOP officeholder never clarified if he'd run for governor as a Republican or as an unaffiliated candidate, but that question no longer matters—until he changes his mind again.

TN-Gov, TN-Sen

After a brief flirtation with a bid for Tennessee's open governorship, Republican Sen. Bill Hagerty now says that he'll seek reelection instead. Hagerty, who served as Donald Trump's ambassador to Japan before winning the race to succeed Lamar Alexander in 2020, should have little trouble securing a second term.

House

AZ-06

Marine veteran JoAnna Mendoza on Wednesday became the first Democrat to announce a campaign against Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani in Arizona's 6th District, a competitive seat based in the southeastern part of the state.

Mendoza previously challenged Republican state Sen. Vince Leach in 2020 but lost 54-46 following an expensive race. She also worked as a congressional aide for then-Rep. Tom O'Halleran, who represented northern Arizona.

Ciscomani won his second term last year by a narrow 50-47 margin after a pricey battle of his own. According to calculations from The Downballot, Donald Trump carried the 6th District by a narrow 50-49 margin.

Mayors & County Leaders

Lehigh County, PA Executive

Roger MacLean, a former Allentown police chief and city council president, is now the third Republican to announce a campaign for Lehigh County executive. MacLean, who was elected to the city council in 2015 as a Democrat, served as acting mayor for a month in 2018 after Mayor Ed Pawlowski resigned following his corruption conviction. Like all Pennsylvania counties, Lehigh holds local elections in odd-numbered years, with a primary this year on May 20 and a general election in November.

Oakland, CA Mayor

Former Rep. Barbara Lee has earned the backing of the local Chamber of Commerce, an endorsement that Politico characterizes as an unexpected boon for the prominent progressive. The outlet sees the nod as an indication of "how quickly she has surged" ahead in the April 15 special election for mayor of Oakland, leaving more moderate candidates the Chamber might ordinarily prefer behind.

Westchester County, NY Executive

Westchester County Executive Ken Jenkins defeated Republican Christine Sculti 64-36 in Tuesday's special election to keep the job that he was appointed to last month. Jenkins, a Democrat, is the first Black person to lead this populous community just north of New York City and will be up for a full four-year term in November.

Donald Trump took a belated interest in this contest with a Monday social media post declaring, "Republicans, Conservatives and common-sense voters must get out the vote and send a message to corrupt Democrats." But the message, which did not name either candidate, doesn't seem to have made much of a difference, as Jenkins' performance was a smidge better than Kamala Harris' 63-37 showing here.

However, the final tallies could still shift somewhat. In last year's presidential race, for instance, a little more than 5% of Westchester's total vote was counted after election night. Given Tuesday's considerably lower turnout, however, that proportion could be smaller.

Other Races

OH-LG

Both chambers of the Ohio legislature confirmed former college football coach Jim Tressel on Wednesday two days after Republican Gov. Mike DeWine nominated him to serve as his lieutenant governor. Tressel has not quashed speculation that he could run next year to replace DeWine, who is termed out as the state's chief executive.

Grab Bag

Where Are They Now?

Former Illinois Speaker Mike Madigan was convicted on 10 corruption charges in federal court on Wednesday, including conspiracy to commit bribery. The jury, which deliberated for two weeks, acquitted Madigan on seven other counts and failed to reach a consensus on the remaining 12. Acting U.S. Attorney Morris Pasqual said that "no decision has been made" about seeking a second trial for the unresolved charges.

The trial's conclusion comes two years after Madigan, who was the longest-serving state House speaker in American history, failed to convince enough of his fellow Democrats to keep him in that role. Until then, Madigan had long been the most powerful figure in state politics—something that even governors from both parties acknowledged. However, ongoing corruption investigations involving the speaker's ties to the utility giant Commonwealth Edison led his party to replace Madigan with Chris Welch.