SPECIAL ELECTION: Does The Downballot have any thoughts on today’s special election in New York State? Democrat Ken Jenkins is running for County Executive of Westchester County. The GOP candidate is Christine A. Sculti, for whom the White House occupant is trying to drum up MAGA support.
Yesterday, Tigercourse, who resides in this district, wrote: "I'm pretty sure Jenkins will win easily."
The Ultimate Data Guide is an amazing resource! However, here are a few statistics that would be really interesting – and which The Downballot may already be compiling. (Granted, some are more relevant for a specialized round of Trivial Pursuit.)
– How has the proportion of Senators and Congressional representatives, and top state officials, who have law degrees changed over time?
– Proportion of überwealthy (billionaires, millionaires...)?
– Elected politicians without a college degree?
– Elected politicians with background in the creative arts? Published novelists and poets, musicians, sculptors/painters, professional actors?
– Elected politicians who were manual laborers: factory worker, farmer, rancher…
– Elected politicians who have served in the Military? Peace Corp or NGO abroad?
– Membership in the KKK? Militias? Opus Dei et al? Freemasons?
Income data, education level, ethnicity and much more are already compiled – although these look like demographic analyses of districts and states, not candidates or politicians per se.
These are all great areas for research! Alas, as you know, we have a tiny team and there are only so many hours in the day. But if you dig into any of these topics, please let us know what you uncover!
Also, while Adams is a corrupt asshole, I think he's at least tried to make some headway on housing availablility, and considering how mayors since the 1970s have had no success in addressing homelessness and housing prices, he deserves some credit for that.
Yeah, the housing situation seems like much more of a parochial issue with the NY council, and Adams has tried to do some things on the edges there, much as he sucks in other ways
NYC has certainly become one of the cities that has had a problem with affordability when it comes to housing for many years. I'm always open to hearing new and creative ideas to work around this problem.
NYC has been in an official housing emergency for something like 80 years. The solutions will indeed have to be very creative. The solution that is most guaranteed to work would be to make it a very unattractive place to live and invest in. If the population dropped and the desire to invest from foreigners fell, prices would become better. While that is the plan that would work, it's got some obvious other downsides. Unfortunately housing is not as simple as supply and demand. Supply absolutely induces demand, particularly in highly soft after areas. New construction always goes for a premium, helping to set a new higher market price. Price controls have their own obvious issues (the 2019 tenant protection law needs to be amended to allow landlord to increase rent after fixing up units) in distorting the market.
The notion of market rate housing resolving the housing crisis is false. There is no timetable by which prices of market rate housing go down. There was a city planner in Vancouver, British Columbia who had argued this kind of push has NOT helped the Vancouver housing market and that it’s still very much an expensive market.
Anyone who is priced out of normal market rate housing will know in this environment it’s mainly appealing to the affluent and wealthy. You need to have more of a comprehensive discussion on how to protect those who are priced out/at risk of being priced out.
Consider this: There are 818 golf courses in the State of New York. That’s a lot of wasted real estate, just so the elite can play with their tiny white balls.
Imagine how much low-cost housing can be built on that – and in good neighborhoods. Moreover, this would go a long ways toward solving NYC’s homeless problem.
80 years? I don't think so. Rent was inexpensive in New York through the 1970s, and in some areas, 1980s. Homelessness started to be a big thing in the current era after people who were judged not to be a threat to themselves or others were thrown out of insane asylums in the mid to late 70s, landlords with support from New York City policies paid people to torch buildings throughout mostly Black and Hispanic neighborhoods like Harlem, the South Bronx and Bed Stuy in exchange for insurance money, Carter decreased funding for public housing, and Reagan and following totally fucked it.
I take most of your other points, but if you think landlords should be allowed to increase rents after doing needed repairs - wait, what kinds of "fixing up" are you thinking of?
USAID & Foreign Aid – International repercussions of Trump’s/Musk’s eradication
. American aid freeze puts a stop to mine clearance
"Norwegian People's Aid has put all US-supported mine and explosives clearance work on hold in 12 countries and is laying off 1,700 employees as a result of the US aid freeze. This is almost half of the staff, which totals 3,200 employees.
"It will prevent displaced people from being able to return, and according to our calculations will have serious consequences for up to half a million people in countries such as Iraq, Yemen, Laos and Vietnam," says Secretary General Raymond Johansen.
"On Monday, it was announced that the Norwegian Refugee Council is suspending emergency aid work in almost 20 countries.
"The Norwegian Refugee Council is itself one of the world's largest humanitarian mine clearance operators, typically with activities in 21 countries."
[Norway’s] Minister for Development Åsmund Aukrust: "It is terribly dramatic and shows very brutal consequences of the freeze the US is implementing."
"Aukrust points out that American aid constitutes a third of the world's aid, and that it is not possible for any other country to make up for what is lost."
Yes, but ultimately, it's the U.S. that is most fucked, and a lot of people don't realize that all U.S. foreign and military aid that's tangible is in the form of U.S. products that the U.S. government pays for or lends money for, so rather than being handouts to foreign countries, they are payments from the Federal government to U.S.-based businesses through foreign countries.
Really? I must have missed the declarations of said oracles.
This is the impact reported by just one organization & authorities in Norway. To get some understanding of the true scale of the impact of the shuttering of USAID, we need to multiply this by dozens of countries and hundreds of organizations that rely on and cooperate with USAID.
Tressel is probably one of the few names that could reliably beat Vivek and he’d certainly be more in the Kasich/DeWine mold than whatever edgelord nonsense Vivek would have in mind for the Buckeye state
If Ohio is so far gone that it doesn’t matter and we can’t win no matter what, we’re in trouble. The only states closer than it in 2024 were blue states and swing states.
Lots of places that need to bounce back to at least the halfway point of the 2012 margins for the math to work. The Mahoning Valley is at the top of the list, but double-digit losses in places like Stark County and Erie County are also not sustainable. Nor are 40+ point losses in places like Ross and Scioto counties. Flipping Delaware County ain't gonna cut it in pursuit of a Democratic win.
I mean, Donald Trump is President, the Senate, House and Supreme Court ate in extremist Republican hands. The voters are disconnected from our party for a variety of reasons. We are in some trouble.
I'm not sure if it's THAT far gone yet. But Ramaswamy may be a test--with his often extreme stands and lack of experience in office, if he easily wins both the primary and general then maybe it is.
Tressel, OTOH, might be governor in waiting if he ran, and his age might be the only reason to suppose that he won't. His long time sports-based popularity gives him a relatively nonpartisan or nonpolitical aura, and running against Vivek would only make him look more moderate.
I wouldn't say forever though. OH has seen population decreases for years up until recently.
There's been evidence that the state is starting to see population increases in cities like Columbus and Central Ohio in general. How long this will last remains to be seen but so far, the numbers are showing the state recently has been going on a upwards trajectory while certain parts of the state are on a decline (naturally, the more rural/small town parts of the state).
That said, if I'd chose which of the following states where to prioritize resources I'd say TX. It's got more room for improvement for Democrats and gets plenty of new residents all the time.
I keep waiting for the Trump Decree or MAGA legislation that bans the teaching of Arabic numerals in American schools, and outlaws referring to months and days of the week named after Pagan Gods!
What did you expect them to do? Like it or not, he is the duly elected President with that authority. They did the same when Mt. McKinley was changed to Denali under Obama and it fits with their policy of referring to named places as their "official" name in that country. So if you take a look it still says Gulf of Mexico in Mexico and it says Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America) in the UK. There wasn't much Google could do here besides what they have done
We were fortunate to have had Elisa Slotkin as the Democratic Senate Nominee last year as she was able to keep the Senate seat in the Democratic Party's hands considering the political environment.
Someone not Buttigeg but who knows Michigan well and is going to focus on MI resident issues should poll better. I'd like to see another woman Democratic Senate Candidate nominated.
Buttigeg is more suitable as a strategist or communications guy. I'd have him work for the DNC as communications director or something. He knows how to speak and formulate arguments well that retort back against GOP talking points.
The first Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll of the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election finds a majority of Democrats (56%) and a plurality of Republicans (47%) undecided with six months until the primary elections.
In the Democratic Primary, 10% support Rep. Mikie Sherrill, 8% New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller, 8% Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, 7% Rep. Josh Gottheimer, and 7% former State Senate President Stephen Sweeney. In the Republican Primary, 26% support Jack Ciattarelli, while 13% support radio host Bill Spadea; no other candidate reaches 5%.
The removal of the county line applied to non-federal elections too, right? If so this will be the first competitive NJ primary since its removal. I'm curious how that will shape the support going forward.
Yup. 56% undecided voters shows it's hard for voters to decide at this point given we have four months until the primary election. It could go in any direction.
That said, at least for now Sherrill seems to be polling the best.
That suggests no one is really breaking free as the leading front runner this early in the race. Sherrill may be leading in the race but I wouldn’t even consider her the front runner considering 56% of undecided voters in this poll have yet to make up their minds. Not sure even the recent debate really changed the dynamics much.
Not trying to bring up past Democratic Presidential Primary races in the discussion here but past ones such as 2004 and 2020 had multiple presidential candidates who were polling close to each other similarly as in the NJ-GOV race here.
I find this refreshing. I hope the CA-GOV race follows through a similar process.
For comparison's sake, Latimer won, against Sculti, by 62-38 in 2021. Not much difference (pending final count).
Comparisons to 2021 maybe aren't the most heartening, but Latimer was the incumbent then in a (locally) regular election, not an open seat special. And it wasn't that long ago when Rob Astorino (R) won two terms, in 2009 and 2013, by 17 and 15 point margins. Latimer ousted him in 2017 by 13 points.
Given that it's a not particularly competitive special election in winter I imagine turnout wasn't expected to be too high. Turnout looks to be about 40% of 2021. It looks like he's doing very similarly to Latimer, which is good.
Jeff, you did a great job flying morning digest solo. Welcome back David.
Thank you, I appreciate that! I'm just happy no members of Congress picked last week to retire!
Thank you! Jeff did a stellar job, did he not? Of course, I knew he would do nothing less—that's why we are a team!
SPECIAL ELECTION: Does The Downballot have any thoughts on today’s special election in New York State? Democrat Ken Jenkins is running for County Executive of Westchester County. The GOP candidate is Christine A. Sculti, for whom the White House occupant is trying to drum up MAGA support.
Yesterday, Tigercourse, who resides in this district, wrote: "I'm pretty sure Jenkins will win easily."
It feels like a pretty low-intensity race, which should be fine given Democratic overperformances elsewhere.
Re: The Downballot ULTIMATE Data Guide
The Ultimate Data Guide is an amazing resource! However, here are a few statistics that would be really interesting – and which The Downballot may already be compiling. (Granted, some are more relevant for a specialized round of Trivial Pursuit.)
– How has the proportion of Senators and Congressional representatives, and top state officials, who have law degrees changed over time?
– Proportion of überwealthy (billionaires, millionaires...)?
– Elected politicians without a college degree?
– Elected politicians with background in the creative arts? Published novelists and poets, musicians, sculptors/painters, professional actors?
– Elected politicians who were manual laborers: factory worker, farmer, rancher…
– Elected politicians who have served in the Military? Peace Corp or NGO abroad?
– Membership in the KKK? Militias? Opus Dei et al? Freemasons?
Pinches arm!
Income data, education level, ethnicity and much more are already compiled – although these look like demographic analyses of districts and states, not candidates or politicians per se.
These are all great areas for research! Alas, as you know, we have a tiny team and there are only so many hours in the day. But if you dig into any of these topics, please let us know what you uncover!
Adams is corrupt just as Puppet Elect Trump!
Corrupt! Corruption!!
"Support democracy – buy a politician!"
And New York City might end up with another corrupt mayor - Andrew Cuomo.
Not as bad as Adams. In every way. Not saying I like him. But for NYC, Adams is the bottom of the barrel
Those of us in LA could certainly have done better than Karen Bass but at least we didn't screw up like NYC did.
Worse that Giuliani?!??!
Once upon a time---I think it was shortly after the Dutch departed--he was actually called "America's Mayor" by credible, nonpartisan analysts....
I don't know if Cuomo would be better
Also, while Adams is a corrupt asshole, I think he's at least tried to make some headway on housing availablility, and considering how mayors since the 1970s have had no success in addressing homelessness and housing prices, he deserves some credit for that.
Yeah, the housing situation seems like much more of a parochial issue with the NY council, and Adams has tried to do some things on the edges there, much as he sucks in other ways
NYC has certainly become one of the cities that has had a problem with affordability when it comes to housing for many years. I'm always open to hearing new and creative ideas to work around this problem.
NYC has been in an official housing emergency for something like 80 years. The solutions will indeed have to be very creative. The solution that is most guaranteed to work would be to make it a very unattractive place to live and invest in. If the population dropped and the desire to invest from foreigners fell, prices would become better. While that is the plan that would work, it's got some obvious other downsides. Unfortunately housing is not as simple as supply and demand. Supply absolutely induces demand, particularly in highly soft after areas. New construction always goes for a premium, helping to set a new higher market price. Price controls have their own obvious issues (the 2019 tenant protection law needs to be amended to allow landlord to increase rent after fixing up units) in distorting the market.
Agreed.
The notion of market rate housing resolving the housing crisis is false. There is no timetable by which prices of market rate housing go down. There was a city planner in Vancouver, British Columbia who had argued this kind of push has NOT helped the Vancouver housing market and that it’s still very much an expensive market.
Anyone who is priced out of normal market rate housing will know in this environment it’s mainly appealing to the affluent and wealthy. You need to have more of a comprehensive discussion on how to protect those who are priced out/at risk of being priced out.
"The solutions will indeed have to be very creative."
George Carlin had the solution to the housing shortage:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4w7H48tBS8
Consider this: There are 818 golf courses in the State of New York. That’s a lot of wasted real estate, just so the elite can play with their tiny white balls.
Imagine how much low-cost housing can be built on that – and in good neighborhoods. Moreover, this would go a long ways toward solving NYC’s homeless problem.
80 years? I don't think so. Rent was inexpensive in New York through the 1970s, and in some areas, 1980s. Homelessness started to be a big thing in the current era after people who were judged not to be a threat to themselves or others were thrown out of insane asylums in the mid to late 70s, landlords with support from New York City policies paid people to torch buildings throughout mostly Black and Hispanic neighborhoods like Harlem, the South Bronx and Bed Stuy in exchange for insurance money, Carter decreased funding for public housing, and Reagan and following totally fucked it.
I take most of your other points, but if you think landlords should be allowed to increase rents after doing needed repairs - wait, what kinds of "fixing up" are you thinking of?
Trump is worse, but he's also had more scope for bad behavior.
Former rep doug collins or current rep mike collins?
It's Mike Collins. The "Doug" was a mistake by me, I've corrected it.
USAID & Foreign Aid – International repercussions of Trump’s/Musk’s eradication
. American aid freeze puts a stop to mine clearance
"Norwegian People's Aid has put all US-supported mine and explosives clearance work on hold in 12 countries and is laying off 1,700 employees as a result of the US aid freeze. This is almost half of the staff, which totals 3,200 employees.
"It will prevent displaced people from being able to return, and according to our calculations will have serious consequences for up to half a million people in countries such as Iraq, Yemen, Laos and Vietnam," says Secretary General Raymond Johansen.
"On Monday, it was announced that the Norwegian Refugee Council is suspending emergency aid work in almost 20 countries.
"The Norwegian Refugee Council is itself one of the world's largest humanitarian mine clearance operators, typically with activities in 21 countries."
[Norway’s] Minister for Development Åsmund Aukrust: "It is terribly dramatic and shows very brutal consequences of the freeze the US is implementing."
"Aukrust points out that American aid constitutes a third of the world's aid, and that it is not possible for any other country to make up for what is lost."
https://www-nrk-no.translate.goog/urix/norsk-folkehjelp_-amerikansk-bistandsfrys-setter-stopper-for-minerydding-1.17266131?_x_tr_sl=no&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
(rough English version via Google Translate of today’s Norwegian article)
This seems like an Onion article. The U.S. is so fucked!
Or in this case: a helluva lot of people in a helluva lot of other countries are seriously (and unnecessarily) fucked.
Yes, but ultimately, it's the U.S. that is most fucked, and a lot of people don't realize that all U.S. foreign and military aid that's tangible is in the form of U.S. products that the U.S. government pays for or lends money for, so rather than being handouts to foreign countries, they are payments from the Federal government to U.S.-based businesses through foreign countries.
Thanks for this, especially after we had a couple of oracles in here last week claiming that the elimination of USAID was no big deal.
Really? I must have missed the declarations of said oracles.
This is the impact reported by just one organization & authorities in Norway. To get some understanding of the true scale of the impact of the shuttering of USAID, we need to multiply this by dozens of countries and hundreds of organizations that rely on and cooperate with USAID.
Tressel is probably one of the few names that could reliably beat Vivek and he’d certainly be more in the Kasich/DeWine mold than whatever edgelord nonsense Vivek would have in mind for the Buckeye state
I don’t see Vivek as good fit for Ohio. But maybe Ohio is so far gone that it doesn’t matter.
If Ohio is so far gone that it doesn’t matter and we can’t win no matter what, we’re in trouble. The only states closer than it in 2024 were blue states and swing states.
Lots of places that need to bounce back to at least the halfway point of the 2012 margins for the math to work. The Mahoning Valley is at the top of the list, but double-digit losses in places like Stark County and Erie County are also not sustainable. Nor are 40+ point losses in places like Ross and Scioto counties. Flipping Delaware County ain't gonna cut it in pursuit of a Democratic win.
I mean, Donald Trump is President, the Senate, House and Supreme Court ate in extremist Republican hands. The voters are disconnected from our party for a variety of reasons. We are in some trouble.
It clearly is.
I'm not sure if it's THAT far gone yet. But Ramaswamy may be a test--with his often extreme stands and lack of experience in office, if he easily wins both the primary and general then maybe it is.
Tressel, OTOH, might be governor in waiting if he ran, and his age might be the only reason to suppose that he won't. His long time sports-based popularity gives him a relatively nonpartisan or nonpolitical aura, and running against Vivek would only make him look more moderate.
I believe that election results show that a Democratic victory in any statewide election in Ohio is likely to be a crazy occurrence, like in Alabama.
I wouldn't say forever though. OH has seen population decreases for years up until recently.
There's been evidence that the state is starting to see population increases in cities like Columbus and Central Ohio in general. How long this will last remains to be seen but so far, the numbers are showing the state recently has been going on a upwards trajectory while certain parts of the state are on a decline (naturally, the more rural/small town parts of the state).
That said, if I'd chose which of the following states where to prioritize resources I'd say TX. It's got more room for improvement for Democrats and gets plenty of new residents all the time.
OH
TX
https://www.axios.com/local/columbus/2025/01/15/central-ohio-leads-statewide-population-growth
SURREAL: Google caves to the Mad King
"Gulf of America" now appears on Google maps for U.S. users
https://www.axios.com/2025/02/11/gulf-of-america-google-maps-mexico
I keep waiting for the Trump Decree or MAGA legislation that bans the teaching of Arabic numerals in American schools, and outlaws referring to months and days of the week named after Pagan Gods!
What did you expect them to do? Like it or not, he is the duly elected President with that authority. They did the same when Mt. McKinley was changed to Denali under Obama and it fits with their policy of referring to named places as their "official" name in that country. So if you take a look it still says Gulf of Mexico in Mexico and it says Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America) in the UK. There wasn't much Google could do here besides what they have done
Google is a private company. They can change their policy or make an exception.
See if you can spot the difference:
– Mt. McKinley / Denali is wholly within the United States of America.
– The Gulf of Mexico (aka America) consists largely of international waters and territorial waters of other countries.
EPIC-MRA has Rodgers up 47-41 on Buttigieg, Benson 31-31-21 against Devos and Duggan
NEW - Senate poll - Michigan
🔴 Rogers 47% (+6)
🔵 Buttigieg 41%
EPIC MRA #B - 600 LV - 2/8
The only way they can lose the seat is if Buttigieg is nominated.
We were fortunate to have had Elisa Slotkin as the Democratic Senate Nominee last year as she was able to keep the Senate seat in the Democratic Party's hands considering the political environment.
Someone not Buttigeg but who knows Michigan well and is going to focus on MI resident issues should poll better. I'd like to see another woman Democratic Senate Candidate nominated.
Buttigeg is more suitable as a strategist or communications guy. I'd have him work for the DNC as communications director or something. He knows how to speak and formulate arguments well that retort back against GOP talking points.
I like that the new DNC chair, Ken Martin, is the type of chair who’d call Buttigieg and tell him to sit out. (I’m from MN and know how tough he is.)
It's not like he's got much power to enforce that though.
Martin's acknowledging that Democrats need to show spine.
https://www.facebook.com/democrats/videos/dnc-chair-ken-martin-was-on-msnbc-last-night-calling-democrats-to-stamp-out-disi/595379213260650/
NJ-GOV Race Emerson Poll
This was released before the debate but there are important undecided numbers to take into considering where the NJ-GOV race.
Around 56% undecided voters.
https://www.axios.com/local/columbus/2025/01/15/central-ohio-leads-statewide-population-growth
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The first Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll of the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election finds a majority of Democrats (56%) and a plurality of Republicans (47%) undecided with six months until the primary elections.
In the Democratic Primary, 10% support Rep. Mikie Sherrill, 8% New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller, 8% Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, 7% Rep. Josh Gottheimer, and 7% former State Senate President Stephen Sweeney. In the Republican Primary, 26% support Jack Ciattarelli, while 13% support radio host Bill Spadea; no other candidate reaches 5%.
The removal of the county line applied to non-federal elections too, right? If so this will be the first competitive NJ primary since its removal. I'm curious how that will shape the support going forward.
Basically, it's anyone's race on the Democratic side.
Yup. 56% undecided voters shows it's hard for voters to decide at this point given we have four months until the primary election. It could go in any direction.
That said, at least for now Sherrill seems to be polling the best.
Right, but by 2 points over 2 others and 3 over another 2.
That suggests no one is really breaking free as the leading front runner this early in the race. Sherrill may be leading in the race but I wouldn’t even consider her the front runner considering 56% of undecided voters in this poll have yet to make up their minds. Not sure even the recent debate really changed the dynamics much.
Not trying to bring up past Democratic Presidential Primary races in the discussion here but past ones such as 2004 and 2020 had multiple presidential candidates who were polling close to each other similarly as in the NJ-GOV race here.
I find this refreshing. I hope the CA-GOV race follows through a similar process.
For those of you who wish to follow the Westchester County Executive Election Results: https://www.westchestergov.com/boe99/linkcounty.aspx
I’ll take a 22 point margin!
For comparison's sake, Latimer won, against Sculti, by 62-38 in 2021. Not much difference (pending final count).
Comparisons to 2021 maybe aren't the most heartening, but Latimer was the incumbent then in a (locally) regular election, not an open seat special. And it wasn't that long ago when Rob Astorino (R) won two terms, in 2009 and 2013, by 17 and 15 point margins. Latimer ousted him in 2017 by 13 points.
That we did better than 2017 with a non-incumbent in a special is good enough for me
64-36 the final result.
What is the likely turnout? Is the present margin under- or overperformance?
That has yet to be revealed. BTW Jenkins is right as I am typing declaring victory. Also, Governor Hochul introduced him at his victory party.
Given that it's a not particularly competitive special election in winter I imagine turnout wasn't expected to be too high. Turnout looks to be about 40% of 2021. It looks like he's doing very similarly to Latimer, which is good.
He'll be facing another election in November. This time as an elected incumbent. That's the ultimate test.