Morning Digest: Two Democratic heavyweights are joining one of 2025's marquee contests

But Republicans see an opening in New Jersey after Trump's double-digit improvement

Democrat Rep. Josh Gottheimer (credit: Josh Gottheimer Facebook)

Leading Off

NJ-Gov

Reps. Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill each launched their long-anticipated campaigns to succeed their fellow Democrat, termed-out Gov. Phil Murphy, in what will be one of the most closely watched races of 2025. Gottheimer held his kickoff on Friday, while the crowded Democratic primary for New Jersey's open governorship grew again this morning when Sherrill entered the race.

Both Democrats easily earned new two-year terms this month even as the state swung sharply to the right at the top of the ticket, though neither of them would need to leave the House if their latest bids falter.

While Gottheimer and Sherrill felt it necessary to wait until after securing reelection to kick off new campaigns, their delay puts them many months behind four other prominent Democrats who've been running for some time: Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, and New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller.

The two latest Democratic entrants, however, both began laying the groundwork to run well before this month. Several powerful Democratic leaders in two populous counties, Bergen and Hudson, are backing Gottheimer while Sherrill previously earned the support of one of the state's most prominent labor groups, the Laborers’ International Union of North America.

Gottheimer and Sherrill cut different profiles, but they share one thing in common: Both were elected to Congress in the previous decade by flipping former GOP strongholds.

Gottheimer, a former speechwriter for Bill Clinton and an adviser to Hillary Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign, first sought office in 2016 when he challenged far-right Rep. Scott Garrett in the 5th District in the northernmost part of the state. 

Garrett, who co-founded the House ​​Freedom Caucus, had won each of his seven terms by double digits, and Gottheimer initially seemed like he'd be just the latest of several promising Democrats destined to fall short. The challenger, though, made full use of his ties to the Clintons to raise extraordinary sums.

Garrett, by contrast, had alienated major donors in 2015 when Politico reported that he'd refused to pay dues to the National Republican Congressional Committee because it had supported gay candidates.

Gottheimer framed the race as a choice between a centrist and an extremist, an argument his allies at House Majority PAC backed up with ads blasting Garrett for opposing a ban on Confederate flags in military cemeteries. The strategy worked, and Gottheimer unseated the longtime incumbent 51-47 even as Donald Trump was narrowly carrying his constituency.

The new congressman established himself as one of the most outspoken moderates in Congress during his very first week in office when he cast a rare Democratic vote in favor of a bill to allow the incoming Trump administration to quickly roll back environmental protection rules. Gottheimer also stood out as one of the top fundraisers in the House, which led the New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein to dub him the "human fundraising machine."

That strength, as well as his suburban district's swing against the GOP during the first Trump administration, helped protect him from serious primary or general election opposition. His one intra-party battle took place in 2020 when Glen Rock Councilwoman Arati Kreibich challenged him from the left, but Gottheimer prevailed 66-34.

Gottheimer attracted more attention―and progressive fury―the next year when he and a small group of House Democrats threatened to derail the Biden administration's spending plans. But the congressman remained secure at home against both fellow Democrats and Republicans, which helped him amass an astounding $20 million war chest just ahead of this year's elections.

While state law prohibits Gottheimer from transferring these funds directly to his new campaign, there's little question his massive donor base will give him the resources he'll need to make up for his late start.

Sherrill, a former federal prosecutor who flew helicopters in the Navy, wound up joining Congress just two years after Gottheimer. And like Gottheimer, Sherrill sought to take on an entrenched GOP incumbent, 12-term Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen. The Republican, however, retired rather than defend the ancestrally red 11th District, which Trump had just only narrowly carried.

Sherrill quickly became the favorite to replace Frelinghuysen. National Republicans largely turned their attention elsewhere as the political environment worsened for the party, and ​​Sherrill defeated Republican Assemblyman Jay Webber in a 57-42 landslide. 

Sherrill won by a smaller 53-47 spread as Joe Biden was carrying her seat by a similar margin, but future reelection campaigns soon became much easier, both for her and Gottheimer.

In 2021, Democrats on the state's congressional redistricting commission convinced the tiebreaking member to approve their preferred map for the next decade, which made both the 5th and 11th Districts considerably bluer. As a result, both Gottheimer and Sherrill prevailed by double-digits over unheralded opponents both in 2022 and this year.

Republicans also have a contested battle for their nomination in a state where Donald Trump made major gains. While Joe Biden won New Jersey's electoral votes 57-41, Kamala Harris prevailed by a much smaller 52-46 margin. Primaries have yet to be scheduled, but the Garden State usually holds nominating contests in June.

Governors

RI-Gov

Outgoing Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo is considering a bid for her old job as governor of Rhode Island, Ian Donnis reports for The Public's Radio―a move that would set off a clash with the office's current occupant.

Gov. Dan McKee, who ascended from his post as lieutenant governor to the top job when Raimondo joined Joe Biden's cabinet in 2021, has been raising money for a likely bid for a second full term, with a spokesperson saying an official kickoff is "very likely" to come "by the end of the first quarter."

Raimondo, meanwhile, has not said anything publicly about her intentions, though WPRI's Ted Nesi writes that his sources close to the secretary doubt she'll ultimately challenge McKee in the Democratic primary.

"Certainly, it’s hard to picture Raimondo going from meeting with world leaders about global trade to campaigning at Cranston feasts," Nesi says.

But that doesn't mean the governor is necessarily in for smooth sailing. Helena Foulkes, a former CVS executive who lost to McKee just 33-30 in 2022, has also rebuilt her war chest for a likely second try. Donnis, though, says that Foulkes may defer to Raimondo.

The talk of potential primary challenges comes in the midst of a difficult time in McKee's governorship. The incumbent has spent the last year dealing with the impact of the closure of the Washington Bridge, a major traffic link in the Providence area that has been mired in a long-delayed rebuilding process after state officials declared it structurally unsafe.

McKee has also faced rough headlines concerning the state's large budget deficit and the possibility that the Pawtucket-based toy giant Hasbro could relocate to Massachusetts.

But polls taken this year have offered dramatically different reads on the governor's standing with voters. A University of New Hampshire poll from June showed the governor with a grim 29-65 approval rating, while a subsequent Salve Regina University survey gave him a 34-56 score. However, a YouGov survey for the University of Rhode Island showed him above water at 55-45.

House

CA-21

The Associated Press projects that Democratic Rep. Jim Costa has narrowly won an 11th term against Republican Michael Maher in California's 21st District, a Fresno-based constituency that did not look competitive before Election Day. Costa, though, leads only 52-48 with 92% of the vote tabulated in an area where Donald Trump dramatically improved his standing from four years ago. 

This isn't the first shockingly close call of Costa's long career. In 2014, he barely turned back a different little-known Republican in a previous incarnation of this seat. But Costa, who belongs to the moderate Blue Dog Coalition, had no trouble winning reelection over the next decade and defeated Maher 54-46 in 2022.

With few observers believing that Maher, a former FBI special agent, would have better luck this time, major outside groups on both sides directed their money elsewhere. Costa didn't seem especially concerned, either: The $1.4 million he spent through mid-October ranked him just 78th among Democratic incumbents in the House. Maher, though, was unable to capitalize, spending less than $700,000 on his bid.

Still, Costa may have sensed danger just before it was too late, spending more than a third of his total outlay in just the first two weeks of October. To put that in context, only five other incumbent Democrats spent a greater proportion of their war chest so late in the game. That last-minute blitz allowed Costa to outspend Maher 10-to-1 during the stretch run, which might have saved the congressman's career.

ME-02

Democratic Rep. Jared Golden won a fourth term on Friday as ranked-choice tabulations confirmed him as the winner over Republican Austin Theriault in Maine's 2nd District.

Though Golden had led 50.2 to 49.7 after first-choice votes were tallied, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows concluded that the state was obligated to use the ranked-choice process because the inclusion of more than 12,000 blank ballots dropped Golden's share of the vote to 48.6%.

The final results were little different, with Golden prevailing 50.3 to 49.7. Theriault, who previously said he'd seek a recount, reiterated his intention to do so on Friday.

Mayors & County Leaders

Austin, TX Mayor

Final election results show that Austin Mayor Kirk Watson has avoided a Dec. 14 runoff by all of 14 votes, but nonprofit head Carmen Llanes Pulido is still considering asking for a recount or taking the matter to court. Watson, a Democrat, is currently sitting on 50.004% of the vote in this officially nonpartisan contest where it takes a majority to win outright. Llanes Pulido, who identifies as a progressive, leads her nearest opponent 20-17 for second place.