How do you rate Peltola’s chances? Peltola is 4% behind, but Begich is still below 50%. Is Alaska still counting votes? Or have they started their Ranked Choice Voting calculation?
The day after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election, Afghanistan’s Taliban offered its congratulations to the American people for “not handing leadership of their great country to a woman.”
Taliban leaders expressed optimism that Trump’s election would enable a new chapter in the history of U.S-Taliban relations. They noted that it was Trump who suggested a new international order when he inked the February 29, 2020, Doha Agreement between the U.S. and the Taliban. That deal cut out the Afghan government and committed the U.S. to leave Afghanistan by May 2021, closing five military bases and ending economic sanctions on the Taliban. This paved the way for the U.S. evacuation of the country in August 2021 and the return of the Taliban to power.
The Taliban prohibits girls’ education past the sixth grade and recently banned the sound of women’s voices outside their homes.
HCR notes: Dugin has made his reputation on his calls for an “anti-American revolution” and a new Russian empire built on “the rejection of [alliances of democratic nations surrounding the Atlantic], strategic control of the United States, and the rejection of the supremacy of economic, liberal market values,” as well as reestablishing traditional family structures with strict gender roles.
I was introduced to her when she was in a podcast panel with David Nir. I was so impressed that I reserved a copy of her recent book from the OC library and subscribed to her substack.
I need some good news and something to look forward to. Here's the list of district I think Dems should target in 2026. Are there any other targets we should go after and who would you recruit to each of the seats?
That’s a great list. If Adam Gray loses, he or another candidate should try again in CA-13. Likewise CA-45 if Derek Tran falls short, and in NY-01 if John Avlon fails against Nick LaLota. But I’m still crossing my fingers for all three...
EDIT: One point, which is tangential – Governor Hochul can deprive Republicans of a critical vote in the House by delaying for 90 days the special election for NY-21, the seat Elise Stefanik is vacating to become US Ambassador.
Emphasis on "another candidate" this is Grey's second attempt at the seat and given that the district is bluer then Valadeo's his performances have been unimpresive compared to Salas even though both lost
OH-7 should also be on the list, the Republican only got 51% of the vote there (it just doesn’t look close because Dennis Kucinich ran as a left-wing independent and took some of the vote). He also only got 55% in 2022, he’s definitely vulnerable.
Also, I wouldn’t expect VA-5 or TN-5 to be close (they weren’t this year), but some other districts that were about as close as those this time around that didn’t make the list include WI-1 (Kenosha+Racine), WI-8 (Green Bay+Door County), AZ-8 (Phoenix suburbs), and OH-15 (Columbus suburbs+rural Ohio). They were all decided by less than 15 points and there’s a slim chance they could flip in a big enough wave.
Definitely agree with targeting all four Colorado seats. CO-08 should be an easy flip back into the D column with midterm turnout, CO-03 has been too close recently not to target again, I feel that a strong Dem investment in Colorado Springs and CO-05 would have a big payoff and deprive Republicans of one of their few remaining strongholds in CO, and Boebert substantially underperformed in CO-04 (almost losing Douglas County) and continuing suburban expansion in Douglas and Arapahoe could move this district to the left as well.
I also want to add, as an addendum to this, that if not for Colorado's independent redistricting commission, Democrats could've drawn a solid 7D-1R map that would've easily held up this year. Colorado's independent redistricting commission cost Democrats three House seats, and once California's results are finalized, we'll know how many seats California's commission cost us as well. It's looking very likely that independent redistricting commissions cost Democrats the House this year.
I've always thought that gerrymandering could be undone by agreements between two states. For example, NY will ungerrymander three seats if North Carolina does the same.
No doubt about this. Commissions are killing us, starting with California. Our unilateral disarmament is just awful and a big reason why I am vehemently against the interstate electoral compact.
The interstate electoral compact is the opposite of unilateral disarmament.. it only takes effect if enough states sign on that the rest of the states dont matter
Just as in 2006, we may have to "run the table" to win the Senate. That said, we may get some unexpected pickups as we did in 2006. Keep in mind only about THREE per cent of Virginia Democrats voted in the Senate primary. Little did we know...............
States and seats are out of reach until they aren't. No one anticipated that a Democrat would win a statewide race in Alaska until Peltola did in 2022, a bad year for Democrats no less. Even as red as they've gotten Montana and Ohio did reelect Brown and Tester in 2018. We must also consider that Trump won't ever be on the ballot again, and it's unlikely anyone else in the GOP can match his appeal and generate the same level of support. Hell, Osborn got 46% in Nebraska, which is the best any opposing candidate has gotten for a statewide Nebraska race in the last decade since Ben Nelson. It's time to bring back the 50 state strategy. Stop writing off states and races as "unwinnable" and stop writing off voters. Harris lost the swing states, but she did so by very close margins and most Democratic senators still prevailed over the MAGAs in these same states. The DNC needs to reach out with better messaging and candidates that are allowed to run a full campaign, not 4 damn months at the 11th hour. Only by reaching out to voters that lost our trust can we hope to win again, lest Democrats become reduced to pariahs in their own minority bubble.
Today I am looking at the CA Legislative results. This is a relatively lower-stakes deal because CADEMs have a strong majority in Sacramento. The current lineup before the election is 62 D in the Assembly, 17 GOP and a vacancy. The vacancy will persist until there is a special election because Vince Fong was re-elected to the Assembly even though he is now in the U.S. House (and was re-elected there, too.) AD-32 is in the more Repub part of Bakersfield/ Kern County. The Dems also have over 3/4 of the members in the State Senate, 31D and 9R. There is no chance that the GOPs can get the Dems under the two-thirds supermajority.
It does look like the CDP is losing a Senate seat in Orange County. Sen. Josh Newman is trailing in his re-election bid against GOP former Assm. Steven Choi by over 10,000 votes. Newman has never had a strong hold on the seat. He was first elected to the Senate in 2016 by beating Ling Ling Chang, a GOP Assemblymember. In 2018 he was successfully recalled and replaced by the lovely Ms. Chang. Ling Ling is not a panda bear despite the suggestion of a DKE commenter back then. In 2020 Ling Ling was sent back home when Josh regained the seat. The new district is now all in OC though I am not going to look up the PVIs; maybe it is a more GOP district. Also Josh lost some union support and that might have led to his vote deficit.
Another interesting Senate race is in SD-19, where Lisa Middleton, a Palm Springs City Councilmember (D) is running against GOP incumbent Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh. Lisa is winning the Riverside Co. part of the district but Rosilicie leads in the San Berdoo part and now has an overall lead of about 20K votes. Lisa would have become the first transgender person in the Legislature had she won, but that ain't happening. Sad!
The closest Assembly race is in the same region, and was the closest last time. That is AD-47, where Christy Holstege (D) is in a rematch against incumbent GOP Assm. Greg Wallis, who won in 2022 by 85 votes. Now she is trailing by 269 votes. It isn't over yet, but damn, what a close one two elections in a row! I didn't see any major changes elsewhere in the Assembly, but I maybe missing something. It looks like the Dems did not pick up any of their Assembly targets against GOP incumbents, but when you have 3/4 of the members you can't complain too much.
Next time on More News from California will be the followup on WATN, CA former US House members edition. That will probably be tomorrow morning.
Yes, Josh Newman has had mixed success running for the Senate, but he is not the Orange County answer to Grover Cleveland as king of nonconsecutive terms. That is OC's other Democratic State Senator, Tom Umberg. Tom served in the Assembly from 1990 to 1994, then ran unsuccessfully for AG. He returned to the Assembly for his final term in 2004-2006, and got elected to the Senate in 2018. Tom will be termed out in '26 as one of the last legislators under the earlier version of term limits (6 years in the Assembly, 8 years in the Senate). The current term limit is 12 years combined in either chamber. Sen. John Laird (D-Santa Cruz), who just got re-elected is the last one under those limits. He was in the Assembly in the oughts ('02 to '08) before serving in Gov. Brown' cabinet as Secretary of Natural Resources.
Also, Grover is still the only Grover Cleveland. He served two full nonconsecutive terms as POTUS. There is no way that the Orange Anus will make it through a full second term...
It's crazy seeing the margins in the CA legislature. CA's legislators do not seem to be taken over by centrists/moderates that assiduously work to prevent the state from advancing. A nice divergence from many other strongly lopsided blue state legislatures.
California has almost a three party system. There are Repubs, centrist Dems (sometimes called "business Democrats") and progressive Democrats. The factions vary is strength around the state. The top-two primaries and sometimes runoffs feature progs vs bizdems. There are probably factions within the GOP, but I am not as aware of their interactions. The CAGOP seems very Tr*mpy, but there are a few old-style Repubs here and there. Where I live it is mostly progs vs bizdems, because only about a quarter of the voters are Repubs in Los Angeles.
DNC chairmanship being shopped around. Possible contenders are
New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy
Wisconsin State Dem Chair Ben Wikler
Minnesota State Dem Chair Ken Martin
Looks like Jaimie Harrison may be making his exit but he hasn't said anything.
Not sure about Ken Martin but Minnesota Democrats are stagnant. Not sure if we can afford to lose Ben Wikler for a largely fundraising role nationally. Phil Murphy seems to really want a second act. Idk.
Either way we need to make it a priority to actually register Democrats and getting people energized to actually be Democrats.
It's not as if the DFL is ascendant in the state and we are barely hanging onto the state leg. The brand is literally Farmer Labor and Democrats aren't even competitive there rurally. Unless you're Klobuchar.
Just curious. Even Klobuchar got pasted in the Farmer-Labor counties. Places that went twice for Obama are now going double digits for Royce White. Mathematically, the new Democratic coalition in Minnesota has worked to the party's benefit as they're now winning suburban counties that went double digits for Tim Pawlenty and Norm Coleman back in the day, but if the GOP ever runs a moderate (like Norm's daughter-in-law Julia Coleman), expect considerable contraction of the new suburban base.
Dems aren't dominant in state legislatures in the midwest anyway. We don't hold either in Wisconsin, Michigan won their first trifecta in generations in 2022 (and barely lost it this year), and Pennsylvania still lacks a trifecta. Aside from Illinois, Minnesota is our best legislative performance in the region by far.
So, if it was Murphy, we would have our party leadership, Senate leadership and house leadership all coming from within a handful of miles of one another, a tiny area of the east coast. With our unofficial 4 th leader being from San Francisco, on the west coast. This party needs to geographically diversify.
I haven't been impressed with Murphy lately. Especially for the role of DNC chair I would struggle to see the upside with someone who eschewed party building and instead opted for pure nepotism for this year's senate seat, and pettily appointed someone other than Kim to fill out the remainder of Menendez's term. At least he'd be good at raising money which is half the job.
Considering that both our 2016 and 2024 losses were centered around a failure in the midwest, and upper midwest in particular, I'd rather see someone with some political roots in the region who can help reorient the national operation to know how to better operate over there.
So, a few outside the box ideas with no research whatsoever - how about Tester? how is he at organization? Or Brown (if it's clear he doesn't want to take another crack at the Senate in 2026)? Roy Cooper? Andy Beshear?
For the DNC chair, we first and foremost need a brilliant organizer – not a politician. My choice is Simon Rosenberg! What he achieved with mobilizing the Hopium community was most impressive.
Just curious, I wonder whether Stacy Abrams is another possible candidate. Her efforts were decisive in giving us senators Ossoff and Warnock. Or is she for some reason considered controversial or unviable?
Allegheny County is reviewing provisional, overseas, and military ballots currently and will add the results of what are counted this afternoon. There are an estimated 15k-18k of these ballots to count in Allegheny County.
I am assuming but don't know. Numbers have been all over the map. Some say he has no chance then the next minute Philly and Pittsburgh have tens of thousands on deck. Idfk.
General consensus is that Casey needs upwards of 2/3rds of everything outstanding to speak by.
Also apparently Casey asked Biden to chime in about recounting and Biden declined.
Especially since he has been weak in the modern era. He'd prefer to preserve institutions even if doing so fundamentally damaged everything else.
Even if he wasn't a recent disappointment I'd say any senator approaching 80 should seriously consider retiring. We need new blood and we need to avoid another Feinstein scenario. For that matter Sanders could give us a serious headache if his health takes a turn for the worse, with republican Scott as governor of the state. Too many senators staying on too long.
What's the leadership succession plan for our senate caucus anyway? Schumer is getting up there in years too, Durbin is 2nd but he wouldn't be able to get the job, especially as he has the same age issue. Stabenow is next after Durbin but she will be replaced by Slotkin. Is anyone else ranked high enough to have a pipeline to being next caucus leader, or will we have a wide open process?
I might be wrong but I don't think she has any official leadership positions in our senate caucus. She's the president pro tempore as the now senior-most dem. She also chairs appropriations, which would require some level of connections.
That said she's probably out of the running by default too. She's 74 and assuming Schumer stays leader until 2028, she'd be nearly 80 by the time his successor is chosen.
I was avoiding tossing names out there for who I'd like, but since you and Jonathan both mentioned him, I'll note that I would also like Murphy for future leadership positions. Schatz could be nice too. I've long appreciated that both of them are aware of the intransigence and toxicity of republicans and are willing to be fighters — without being mean or exhausting about it — in a way that many more senior senators are not.
We need fighters. I really do wish Senator Sheldon Whitehouse was Chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee.
And with regards to Majority Leader Schumer, is there any reason why he doesn’t file cloture on all outstanding judicial nominations? Or at least 10 or 12 per week? I am not aware of any Senate rule preventing this.
And we need to watch what goes on in Vermont over the next six years. Not only did Phil Scott cruise to a fifth term as Governor, Sanders' protege David Zuckerman was ousted as Lieutenant Governor, so Republicans will now have two statewide offices held there next January. Should something happen to Sanders - I maintain unlike Leahy, he leaves the US Senate horizontally - we cannot bank on Governor Scott to appoint a Progressive or Democrat to replace him.
Actually Vermont used to be THE most Republican state in the USA. Largely due to its rural and homogeneous population. It became a Democratic state mostly due to backlash against hardline southern social conservatism.
With Donald Trump's victory and the toxic Project 2025 and Agenda 47 looming, Illinois is seeking to further strengthen protections for trans people, and that trans people residing in anti-trans states such as Missouri and Indiana are seeking safe harbor from attacks on their identity and expression by moving to Illinois.
Pennsylvania: Anyone know how many uncured ballots there are? I understand the deadline for helping someone cure their ballot is today. It would really, really matter if we can save Senator Casey’s seat!
JUDICIAL CONFIRMATIONS: (Status at pre-election recess. Senate now resumed)
"The Biden-Harris Administration is at 213 Article III confirmations. On this date during the Trump Administration, there were 218 confirmations. The current administration is only 21 short of matching the previous administration’s four-year total.
"As of October 10th, there are there are 66 Article III vacancies, 41 of which are current. There are now 28 pending nominees: 17 waiting for floor votes, 8 waiting to be reported out of the Senate Judiciary Committee, and 3 waiting for hearings before the Committee."
Two New Jersey House members will launch their campaigns for the Democratic nomination for governor over the next seven days, the New Jersey Globe has confirmed.
Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Tenafly) will announce his candidacy on Friday, November 15 at the Runway Diner in South Hackensack. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) will launch her campaign on Monday, November 18.
Bohannan still has a chance against Miller-Meeks? Nice! So much. better if the Republican margin is kept to an absolute minimum – for instance 218–217.
Challenge all open seats with a viable alternative candidate imo
Alaska: More results in the house race are supposed to be released sometime today.
How do you rate Peltola’s chances? Peltola is 4% behind, but Begich is still below 50%. Is Alaska still counting votes? Or have they started their Ranked Choice Voting calculation?
Still counting. If no one gets a majority, the RCV will be determined a week from tomorrow. From what I've read, Begich seems to have a better shot.
TALIBAN CONGRATULATES TRUMP
The day after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election, Afghanistan’s Taliban offered its congratulations to the American people for “not handing leadership of their great country to a woman.”
Taliban leaders expressed optimism that Trump’s election would enable a new chapter in the history of U.S-Taliban relations. They noted that it was Trump who suggested a new international order when he inked the February 29, 2020, Doha Agreement between the U.S. and the Taliban. That deal cut out the Afghan government and committed the U.S. to leave Afghanistan by May 2021, closing five military bases and ending economic sanctions on the Taliban. This paved the way for the U.S. evacuation of the country in August 2021 and the return of the Taliban to power.
The Taliban prohibits girls’ education past the sixth grade and recently banned the sound of women’s voices outside their homes.
– Heather Cox Richardson
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/november-11-2024
“We have won. The world will be never ever like before. Globalists have lost their final combat.”
– Alexander Dugin, Russian thinker, explaining the dramatic global impact of Trump’s win
HCR notes: Dugin has made his reputation on his calls for an “anti-American revolution” and a new Russian empire built on “the rejection of [alliances of democratic nations surrounding the Atlantic], strategic control of the United States, and the rejection of the supremacy of economic, liberal market values,” as well as reestablishing traditional family structures with strict gender roles.
HCR is a history professor and one of the most popular writers on Substack. She has some really good, insightful reads, I highly recommend her stuff!
I was introduced to her when she was in a podcast panel with David Nir. I was so impressed that I reserved a copy of her recent book from the OC library and subscribed to her substack.
I need some good news and something to look forward to. Here's the list of district I think Dems should target in 2026. Are there any other targets we should go after and who would you recruit to each of the seats?
AK-AL
AZ-01
AZ-02
AZ-06
CA-03
CA-22
CA-40
CA-41
CO-03
CO-04
CO-05
CO-08
FL-13
IA-01
IA-03
MI-04
MI-07
MT-01
MI-10
MO-02
NC-11
NE-02
NJ-07
NY-17
PA-01
PA-07
PA-08
PA-10
TN-05
UT-XX
VA-02
VA-05
WI-03
That’s a great list. If Adam Gray loses, he or another candidate should try again in CA-13. Likewise CA-45 if Derek Tran falls short, and in NY-01 if John Avlon fails against Nick LaLota. But I’m still crossing my fingers for all three...
EDIT: One point, which is tangential – Governor Hochul can deprive Republicans of a critical vote in the House by delaying for 90 days the special election for NY-21, the seat Elise Stefanik is vacating to become US Ambassador.
I'm being positive and planning on Gray and Tran winning. Mostly looking for ideas on who we should run in these seats.
Emphasis on "another candidate" this is Grey's second attempt at the seat and given that the district is bluer then Valadeo's his performances have been unimpresive compared to Salas even though both lost
OH-7 should also be on the list, the Republican only got 51% of the vote there (it just doesn’t look close because Dennis Kucinich ran as a left-wing independent and took some of the vote). He also only got 55% in 2022, he’s definitely vulnerable.
Also, I wouldn’t expect VA-5 or TN-5 to be close (they weren’t this year), but some other districts that were about as close as those this time around that didn’t make the list include WI-1 (Kenosha+Racine), WI-8 (Green Bay+Door County), AZ-8 (Phoenix suburbs), and OH-15 (Columbus suburbs+rural Ohio). They were all decided by less than 15 points and there’s a slim chance they could flip in a big enough wave.
VA-1 should be on there too, it was closer than VA-5 in both 2022 and 2024, being decided by 13 points each time.
Definitely agree with targeting all four Colorado seats. CO-08 should be an easy flip back into the D column with midterm turnout, CO-03 has been too close recently not to target again, I feel that a strong Dem investment in Colorado Springs and CO-05 would have a big payoff and deprive Republicans of one of their few remaining strongholds in CO, and Boebert substantially underperformed in CO-04 (almost losing Douglas County) and continuing suburban expansion in Douglas and Arapahoe could move this district to the left as well.
I also want to add, as an addendum to this, that if not for Colorado's independent redistricting commission, Democrats could've drawn a solid 7D-1R map that would've easily held up this year. Colorado's independent redistricting commission cost Democrats three House seats, and once California's results are finalized, we'll know how many seats California's commission cost us as well. It's looking very likely that independent redistricting commissions cost Democrats the House this year.
Arizona’s commission also cost us at least one seat.
I've always thought that gerrymandering could be undone by agreements between two states. For example, NY will ungerrymander three seats if North Carolina does the same.
Or just make a federal law one way or the other. Ridiculous that’s it’s a state-dependent process when all the members serve in the same body.
No doubt about this. Commissions are killing us, starting with California. Our unilateral disarmament is just awful and a big reason why I am vehemently against the interstate electoral compact.
The interstate electoral compact is the opposite of unilateral disarmament.. it only takes effect if enough states sign on that the rest of the states dont matter
Unlike the senate, i think the house will have plenty of gettable targets.
Just as in 2006, we may have to "run the table" to win the Senate. That said, we may get some unexpected pickups as we did in 2006. Keep in mind only about THREE per cent of Virginia Democrats voted in the Senate primary. Little did we know...............
States and seats are out of reach until they aren't. No one anticipated that a Democrat would win a statewide race in Alaska until Peltola did in 2022, a bad year for Democrats no less. Even as red as they've gotten Montana and Ohio did reelect Brown and Tester in 2018. We must also consider that Trump won't ever be on the ballot again, and it's unlikely anyone else in the GOP can match his appeal and generate the same level of support. Hell, Osborn got 46% in Nebraska, which is the best any opposing candidate has gotten for a statewide Nebraska race in the last decade since Ben Nelson. It's time to bring back the 50 state strategy. Stop writing off states and races as "unwinnable" and stop writing off voters. Harris lost the swing states, but she did so by very close margins and most Democratic senators still prevailed over the MAGAs in these same states. The DNC needs to reach out with better messaging and candidates that are allowed to run a full campaign, not 4 damn months at the 11th hour. Only by reaching out to voters that lost our trust can we hope to win again, lest Democrats become reduced to pariahs in their own minority bubble.
More news from California:
Today I am looking at the CA Legislative results. This is a relatively lower-stakes deal because CADEMs have a strong majority in Sacramento. The current lineup before the election is 62 D in the Assembly, 17 GOP and a vacancy. The vacancy will persist until there is a special election because Vince Fong was re-elected to the Assembly even though he is now in the U.S. House (and was re-elected there, too.) AD-32 is in the more Repub part of Bakersfield/ Kern County. The Dems also have over 3/4 of the members in the State Senate, 31D and 9R. There is no chance that the GOPs can get the Dems under the two-thirds supermajority.
It does look like the CDP is losing a Senate seat in Orange County. Sen. Josh Newman is trailing in his re-election bid against GOP former Assm. Steven Choi by over 10,000 votes. Newman has never had a strong hold on the seat. He was first elected to the Senate in 2016 by beating Ling Ling Chang, a GOP Assemblymember. In 2018 he was successfully recalled and replaced by the lovely Ms. Chang. Ling Ling is not a panda bear despite the suggestion of a DKE commenter back then. In 2020 Ling Ling was sent back home when Josh regained the seat. The new district is now all in OC though I am not going to look up the PVIs; maybe it is a more GOP district. Also Josh lost some union support and that might have led to his vote deficit.
Another interesting Senate race is in SD-19, where Lisa Middleton, a Palm Springs City Councilmember (D) is running against GOP incumbent Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh. Lisa is winning the Riverside Co. part of the district but Rosilicie leads in the San Berdoo part and now has an overall lead of about 20K votes. Lisa would have become the first transgender person in the Legislature had she won, but that ain't happening. Sad!
The closest Assembly race is in the same region, and was the closest last time. That is AD-47, where Christy Holstege (D) is in a rematch against incumbent GOP Assm. Greg Wallis, who won in 2022 by 85 votes. Now she is trailing by 269 votes. It isn't over yet, but damn, what a close one two elections in a row! I didn't see any major changes elsewhere in the Assembly, but I maybe missing something. It looks like the Dems did not pick up any of their Assembly targets against GOP incumbents, but when you have 3/4 of the members you can't complain too much.
Next time on More News from California will be the followup on WATN, CA former US House members edition. That will probably be tomorrow morning.
What a whipsaw career Josh Newman has had
Yes, Josh Newman has had mixed success running for the Senate, but he is not the Orange County answer to Grover Cleveland as king of nonconsecutive terms. That is OC's other Democratic State Senator, Tom Umberg. Tom served in the Assembly from 1990 to 1994, then ran unsuccessfully for AG. He returned to the Assembly for his final term in 2004-2006, and got elected to the Senate in 2018. Tom will be termed out in '26 as one of the last legislators under the earlier version of term limits (6 years in the Assembly, 8 years in the Senate). The current term limit is 12 years combined in either chamber. Sen. John Laird (D-Santa Cruz), who just got re-elected is the last one under those limits. He was in the Assembly in the oughts ('02 to '08) before serving in Gov. Brown' cabinet as Secretary of Natural Resources.
Also, Grover is still the only Grover Cleveland. He served two full nonconsecutive terms as POTUS. There is no way that the Orange Anus will make it through a full second term...
It's crazy seeing the margins in the CA legislature. CA's legislators do not seem to be taken over by centrists/moderates that assiduously work to prevent the state from advancing. A nice divergence from many other strongly lopsided blue state legislatures.
California has almost a three party system. There are Repubs, centrist Dems (sometimes called "business Democrats") and progressive Democrats. The factions vary is strength around the state. The top-two primaries and sometimes runoffs feature progs vs bizdems. There are probably factions within the GOP, but I am not as aware of their interactions. The CAGOP seems very Tr*mpy, but there are a few old-style Repubs here and there. Where I live it is mostly progs vs bizdems, because only about a quarter of the voters are Repubs in Los Angeles.
DNC chairmanship being shopped around. Possible contenders are
New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy
Wisconsin State Dem Chair Ben Wikler
Minnesota State Dem Chair Ken Martin
Looks like Jaimie Harrison may be making his exit but he hasn't said anything.
Not sure about Ken Martin but Minnesota Democrats are stagnant. Not sure if we can afford to lose Ben Wikler for a largely fundraising role nationally. Phil Murphy seems to really want a second act. Idk.
Either way we need to make it a priority to actually register Democrats and getting people energized to actually be Democrats.
Ben Winkler would be my first choice.
mine also
Wikler imo is too valuable where he is right now, especially since DNC chair is a very different role.
I’d be fine with Murphy
Agreed Wisconsin is way too terminally close to have him abandon ship there.
How do you mean that Minnesota Democrats are stagnant?
It's not as if the DFL is ascendant in the state and we are barely hanging onto the state leg. The brand is literally Farmer Labor and Democrats aren't even competitive there rurally. Unless you're Klobuchar.
Just curious. Even Klobuchar got pasted in the Farmer-Labor counties. Places that went twice for Obama are now going double digits for Royce White. Mathematically, the new Democratic coalition in Minnesota has worked to the party's benefit as they're now winning suburban counties that went double digits for Tim Pawlenty and Norm Coleman back in the day, but if the GOP ever runs a moderate (like Norm's daughter-in-law Julia Coleman), expect considerable contraction of the new suburban base.
State is no worse today than during the Bush years. We're actually winning all statewide races now much more consistently than back then.
Dems aren't dominant in state legislatures in the midwest anyway. We don't hold either in Wisconsin, Michigan won their first trifecta in generations in 2022 (and barely lost it this year), and Pennsylvania still lacks a trifecta. Aside from Illinois, Minnesota is our best legislative performance in the region by far.
So, if it was Murphy, we would have our party leadership, Senate leadership and house leadership all coming from within a handful of miles of one another, a tiny area of the east coast. With our unofficial 4 th leader being from San Francisco, on the west coast. This party needs to geographically diversify.
I haven't been impressed with Murphy lately. Especially for the role of DNC chair I would struggle to see the upside with someone who eschewed party building and instead opted for pure nepotism for this year's senate seat, and pettily appointed someone other than Kim to fill out the remainder of Menendez's term. At least he'd be good at raising money which is half the job.
Considering that both our 2016 and 2024 losses were centered around a failure in the midwest, and upper midwest in particular, I'd rather see someone with some political roots in the region who can help reorient the national operation to know how to better operate over there.
He was party treasurer back when. But he has another year plus as governor to go. He should concentrate on that.
So, a few outside the box ideas with no research whatsoever - how about Tester? how is he at organization? Or Brown (if it's clear he doesn't want to take another crack at the Senate in 2026)? Roy Cooper? Andy Beshear?
For the DNC chair, we first and foremost need a brilliant organizer – not a politician. My choice is Simon Rosenberg! What he achieved with mobilizing the Hopium community was most impressive.
Just curious, I wonder whether Stacy Abrams is another possible candidate. Her efforts were decisive in giving us senators Ossoff and Warnock. Or is she for some reason considered controversial or unviable?
Wikler is my first choice.
I want Winkler
Allegheny County is reviewing provisional, overseas, and military ballots currently and will add the results of what are counted this afternoon. There are an estimated 15k-18k of these ballots to count in Allegheny County.
Do we know if these are part of the 22k outstanding votes in Allegheny that NBC is projecting remain or a separate batch?
I am assuming but don't know. Numbers have been all over the map. Some say he has no chance then the next minute Philly and Pittsburgh have tens of thousands on deck. Idfk.
General consensus is that Casey needs upwards of 2/3rds of everything outstanding to speak by.
Also apparently Casey asked Biden to chime in about recounting and Biden declined.
Dick Durbin, who will be 80 years old by 2026, says minority status is a 'consideration' for standing for reelection.
Bernie Sanders will be 89 years old by the end of his newly won term. So why not.
But hopefully he retires during this Trump midterm and let Lauren Underwood run.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2024/11/11/us-sen-dick-durbin-says-democrats-minority-status-a-consideration-as-he-mulls-reelection-bid/
Durbin should def call it a career
Agree.
Especially since he has been weak in the modern era. He'd prefer to preserve institutions even if doing so fundamentally damaged everything else.
Even if he wasn't a recent disappointment I'd say any senator approaching 80 should seriously consider retiring. We need new blood and we need to avoid another Feinstein scenario. For that matter Sanders could give us a serious headache if his health takes a turn for the worse, with republican Scott as governor of the state. Too many senators staying on too long.
What's the leadership succession plan for our senate caucus anyway? Schumer is getting up there in years too, Durbin is 2nd but he wouldn't be able to get the job, especially as he has the same age issue. Stabenow is next after Durbin but she will be replaced by Slotkin. Is anyone else ranked high enough to have a pipeline to being next caucus leader, or will we have a wide open process?
Murray is still pretty high up there no?
I might be wrong but I don't think she has any official leadership positions in our senate caucus. She's the president pro tempore as the now senior-most dem. She also chairs appropriations, which would require some level of connections.
That said she's probably out of the running by default too. She's 74 and assuming Schumer stays leader until 2028, she'd be nearly 80 by the time his successor is chosen.
Did she give up leadership for appropriations chair? I think maybe
Yeah, true.
I guess it boils down to what we want in a caucus leader. Murphy could be good since he’ll be well-tenured by 2028 if that’s when Schumer stands aside
I was avoiding tossing names out there for who I'd like, but since you and Jonathan both mentioned him, I'll note that I would also like Murphy for future leadership positions. Schatz could be nice too. I've long appreciated that both of them are aware of the intransigence and toxicity of republicans and are willing to be fighters — without being mean or exhausting about it — in a way that many more senior senators are not.
I'm a fan of Chris Murphy(he's actually charismatic in small settings)
We need fighters. I really do wish Senator Sheldon Whitehouse was Chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee.
And with regards to Majority Leader Schumer, is there any reason why he doesn’t file cloture on all outstanding judicial nominations? Or at least 10 or 12 per week? I am not aware of any Senate rule preventing this.
And we need to watch what goes on in Vermont over the next six years. Not only did Phil Scott cruise to a fifth term as Governor, Sanders' protege David Zuckerman was ousted as Lieutenant Governor, so Republicans will now have two statewide offices held there next January. Should something happen to Sanders - I maintain unlike Leahy, he leaves the US Senate horizontally - we cannot bank on Governor Scott to appoint a Progressive or Democrat to replace him.
Would have been great for him to stand aside for Balint
True but with a Republican President, any race is Democratic won(but yes in the meantime it would be Republican representative)
They also made huge gains in the legislature. Could be m opening for a moderate GOPer
Precisely my point. Even in Vermont, Sanders style politics is no longer a guaranteed sell.
Vermont has always been a strange super Dem state. Uber white, rural and pro-gun. Could be due for some regression there.
Actually Vermont used to be THE most Republican state in the USA. Largely due to its rural and homogeneous population. It became a Democratic state mostly due to backlash against hardline southern social conservatism.
Agree. Never even voted for FDR. Will be interesting to watch
With Donald Trump's victory and the toxic Project 2025 and Agenda 47 looming, Illinois is seeking to further strengthen protections for trans people, and that trans people residing in anti-trans states such as Missouri and Indiana are seeking safe harbor from attacks on their identity and expression by moving to Illinois.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/lgbtq/2024/11/11/illinois-lgbtq-protections-trans-midwesterners-pritzker-trump-project-2025
Pennsylvania: Anyone know how many uncured ballots there are? I understand the deadline for helping someone cure their ballot is today. It would really, really matter if we can save Senator Casey’s seat!
Casey has knocked the lead to under 30,000. Still, without knowing how much is left, don’t know how significant this is.
That’s great! I don’t understand why Pennsylvania’s Secretary of State can’t give us three simple numbers:
1) How many uncounted ballots
2) Number of uncured ballots
3) Number of provisional ballots
According to NBC, there are an estimated 92,000 votes remaining.
McCormick: 3,379,855 – 48.9%
Bob Casey : 3,350,467 – 48.5%
John Thomas (I): 88,789 – 1.3%
Leila Hazou: 65,328 – 0.9%
Marty Selker: 23,422 – 0.3%
(Estimated remaining: 92,000)
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/pennsylvania-senate-results
Looks like 40 to 50,000 could be from Philadelphia.
That’s good news for Casey – might well be within reach! Any idea where the balance of the other votes are?
Seems to be scattered throughout.
What's your source? NBC's website says only 12,000 left from Philly.
The website says only 93% has reported.
JUDICIAL CONFIRMATIONS: (Status at pre-election recess. Senate now resumed)
"The Biden-Harris Administration is at 213 Article III confirmations. On this date during the Trump Administration, there were 218 confirmations. The current administration is only 21 short of matching the previous administration’s four-year total.
"As of October 10th, there are there are 66 Article III vacancies, 41 of which are current. There are now 28 pending nominees: 17 waiting for floor votes, 8 waiting to be reported out of the Senate Judiciary Committee, and 3 waiting for hearings before the Committee."
https://www.acslaw.org/on-the-bench-week-of-october-10-2024/
One more Biden judge: By a vote of 51–44, the Senate just confirmed April Perry to be a District Judge for the Northern District of Illinois.
Schumer has filed cloture on the nomination of Embry J. Kidd to be judge for the Eleventh Circuit Court.
I hope Schumer, Durbin and the Senate Democrats can pick up the pace!
they seem to at least be trying. ??
Two New Jersey House members will launch their campaigns for the Democratic nomination for governor over the next seven days, the New Jersey Globe has confirmed.
Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Tenafly) will announce his candidacy on Friday, November 15 at the Runway Diner in South Hackensack. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) will launch her campaign on Monday, November 18.
https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/gottheimer-sherrill-will-enter-n-j-governors-race/
Well, Sherrill definitely has my support over Gottheimer. No question
Totally agree. I’d consider Fulop and Baraka also. Not Sweeney.
I'm a fan of fulop; no disrespect to Sherrill
Either of them seem quite solid
I've been getting mailers from some guy called Sean Spiller for gov. I don't know what he's about.
NJEA President and former mayor of Montclair.
In the discord someone reported the MMM race has tightened up and still uncalled ?? 🤔
I believe the margin went from around 1,000 to 700.
Bohannan still has a chance against Miller-Meeks? Nice! So much. better if the Republican margin is kept to an absolute minimum – for instance 218–217.
Donald Trump picks Fox and Friends Weekend host Pete Hegseth to be the next Secretary of State, subject to Senate confirmation.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/pete-hegseth-defense-secretary-trump_n_6733f101e4b07ebab742d1bb
Defense.
Rubio for State (likely)