ME-02: Yesterday, Maine started its ranked choice tabulation in the House contest between Democratic incumbent Jared Golden and Republican challenger Austin Theriault. It is expected to take 3 to 5 days to complete. This is the third ranked-choice runoff in the past four elections for Maine's 2nd Congressional District.
Even though Golden won more than 50% of first-choice votes, and leads by 0.3%, Golden is below the 50% threshold when all votes are considered. There were 420 write-in votes for Diana Merenda, and more than 12,000 voters didn't indicate any candidate as their first-ranked choice.
Before the RCV tabulation, Golden has a 2100-vote advantage. The live RCV count will eventually be displayed here:
I believe that’s the point as there were 12k ballots like that. That’s what makes him under the majority of total Congressional race voters while having a majority of 1st choice voters.
People who skipped the 1st choice vote but did pick a 2nd choice (who the fuck does that?!?) means that he won a majority of people who ranked him 1st but not a majority of people who voted in the Congressional race.
It’s stupid but fair. Bc again, who the fuck votes like that?!? It’s people thinking their first choice is Mickey Mouse but that’s not an option so I’ll just start with my 2nd. Same type of dumb fucks who fill in the bubble for Al Franken but then write in Lizard People. That guy is an absolute legend, don’t get me wrong.
What's the point of moving your local elections to Presidential years if the outcome is frequently going to be decided in a low turnout December runoff? They should either adopt some sort of RCV, (assuming that's not banned in Texas), or use a Preliminary election to narrow the field. (We have preliminaries in Massachusetts.)
The national popular vote for president in 2024 will look eerily similar to the popular vote for U.S. House in 2022. The winner by state will be exactly the same — at least if you take the combined Republican vote in Alaska in 2022. And many of the details will be similar as well, like Republicans’ big gains in Florida and New York.
As a result, the 2024 presidential election results by state correlate more closely with the swings from the 2022 midterm elections for the U.S. House than with the result of the 2020 presidential election.
. . . .
But with hindsight, the 2022 midterm wasn’t an ordinary election. It was the first election after the pandemic and the upheaval that followed, and the lasting results suggest that many critical electoral shifts were already in motion two years ago.
As I noted before this election, the pattern suggests that Democrats lost many voters as a result of events in 2021 and 2022 — including rising prices, a crime surge, the debate over “woke” and resentment over school closures and pandemic-era restrictions.
Among those who will neither forgive – nor hold Democrats in unforgiveness – are the more-than one million Americans who died of Covid. Imagine the electoral ramifications, and the widespread acceptance of mitigating measures, had those Americans been the victim of terrorism?
A pretty solid swath of evidence has shown NPIs had practically no effect on ultimate infections/death counts. We need to honestly confront data that challenges entrenched narratives if we want to progress both on a policy and corresponding political front.
NPI (New Product Introduction)... Or is this an abbreviation for what you mean? Not sure what you mean. Are you saying that Covid vaccines had no effect on infections/death rates?
No NPI=non-pharmaceutical intervention. So school and park closures, mask requirements etc. Made sense very early on; by Fall 2020 it was clear at the minimum schools should have been open for in-person learning.
The city of Irvine, even though almost 300,000 people usually gets ignored in California because everything else is so large.
For the first time, we voted by district for council instead of at large. We have one council seat, district 1, that was separated by 4 votes, but after the vote dump last night is now 18. My district 4 unfortunately voted for the at large incumbent only Republican. Fortunately, he isn't truly awful.
Also from Irvine, Larry Agran, who ran for president in 1992, seems like he will be mayor again. He has been in and out of city government as mayor and council almost since the city was formed. He's the poster child for term limits. I supported Kim who's in a distant #2.
Positively, David Min, my state senator, will now be my US representative. Congratulations! I knew this one would be close, and it was.
Unfortunately, the state Senate seat that Min left is going Republican. Josh Newman is trailing Steven Choi by an amount unlikely to be made up. Choi was the first Korean American mayor of Irvine and with Newman being from Fullerton (far north OC), this may have been a geographic loss.
As mayor he was a little too generous to developers, but Republicans who run in city non partisan elections don't generally espouse a radical right wing agenda.
The city is progressive in extracting set aside low income housing for any apartment development, and growth of mid rise apartment development has been explosive.
Unfortunately, so are many Democrats. Irvine is the most progressive city in OC at getting low income housing, and it's in every apartment complex throughout the city instead of stand alone complexes. You have everyone who pays $3000 for a one bedroom rubbing elbows with people paying $800.
The Guardian will no longer be posting any election content (nor any other content) on Xitter. The Guardian’s statement about the reason for its move is striking and blunt:
“This is something we have been considering for a while given the often disturbing content promoted or found on the platform, including far-right conspiracy theories and racism. The US presidential election campaign served only to underline what we have considered for a long time: that X is a toxic media platform and that its owner, Elon Musk, has been able to use its influence to shape political discourse.”
The Guardian has more than 80 accounts on X with approximately 27 million followers.
I hope the primary here in Virginia for AG isn't too brutal. Luckily as the out party we can afford it better than we could were we the incumbent party.
Yes and no. Jones served in the Virginia House of Delegates. Taylor is the incumbent Commonwealth's Attorney of Henrico (pronounced Hen-Rike-Co) County outside Richmond. The contrast between them will be age (Taylor is 57), gender, and region. With Abigail Spanberger at the top of the ticket, there will be more pressure to pick someone not from Greater Richmond. Jones has the edge there.
Hakeem Jeffries has power to appoint the head of the DCCC. So far he's quiet but people expected Susan DelBene to stay on before Tuesday happened. Sara Jones of California. Who absolutely no one has heard of before either, is being rumored but is not seeking it out publicly.
The DSCCs only interest thus far has been Kirsten Gillibrand. I think this is actually a great choice if it comes to pass. She understands electorates very well. Hopefully she can remain impartial to every candidate and not just women though.
The race for DNC Chair has widened yall. Names now mentioned aside from the three I said yesterday now include Laphonza Butler, Mitchell Landreau, Martin O'Malley, Rahm Emmanuel.
Jaimie Harrison not expected to stay on.
Edit: infighting already with Dean Phillips team trying to ice Ben Wikler for opposing his ballot access in Wisconsin this year.
More coastal talk for the House and Senate there. We can't just be a party from California and New York. Also, Rahm? Who, at least as I understand it, helped kill the 50 state strategy? Great.
Strongly suspect the outcome would have been the same, only Harris would have had to slog it out, endure attacks from other Dems, run to the left, etc., before eventually clinching the nomination. And then into the general election in no better and quite possibly a worse place. I suppose there's some alternate reality where she gets defeated by Dem Jesus who just makes an entirely different 2024 happen but I doubt it!
lol, this site is approaching full DK front page status. She was an objectively awful candidate from the start, which is why Biden kneecapped her to stick to the Dem establishment that forced him out. Last Tuesday proves this.
Mitch Landrieu would be an interesting choice. He’s apart of the Landrieu family and is considered politically savvy. Hailing from the LA also gives him an understanding of, like Jaime Harrison, being in a red Southern State.
Get Rahm Emmanuel as far away from the DNC as possible. He was an ass to Howard Dean when he was DNC Chair and became a hard liner as Mayor of Chicago. Not a good spokesperson or strategist when the goal is to implement a 50 state strategy.
That is not correct. Some women in the U.S. had the right to vote before 1920, depending on which state they lived in. In California women got the vote in 1911, thanks to an initiative that passed. In Wyoming it was even earlier; Since statehood in 1889 (if my memory serves me well.) 1920 is when all U.S. women got the right to vote, because of an amendment to the Constitution.
I should have been more precise. But what you write is not entirely correct either. Not all women were able to vote after the Constitutional Amendment was passed in 1920.
Wyoming actually passed equal suffrage back in 1869 when it became a territory. Keeping said suffrage was a self imposed catch to their achieving statehood in 1890.
Casey needs a miracle. The formula for the miracle: Win Allegheny & Philadelphia 90-10; Win Delaware, Chester, Montgomery & Bucks 75-25; Split the rest of the Commonwealth 50-50.
Shapiro's approval rating is over 50% because he's competent. The GOP is probably going to nominate a lunatic outsider like they usually do. Also, the race will be run during a GOP Presidential mid-term without a US Senate race. Barring disaster, I like his chances.
Yesterday, Paleo pointed out that there were at least 40,000 votes left to count in Philadelphia, with the remainder of the then-92,000 remaining votes spread throughout the state. Casey has been winning 78% of the votes in Philadelpia (not sure about the VBM/EV difference in that split). As of this morning, 5% of the votes there have yet to be counted. Rough, back-of-the-envelope math indicates there might be roughly 36,000 votes left there. It does look a tough uphill climb.
According to Michael Pruser, there are about 12k left in Philadelphia & about 74.3k total left statewide. This process isn't very transparent & it's frustrating to all parties.
Where are you getting the 12K number? Scrolling through Pruser's feed and having a hard time finding that. He did echo your sentiment though about the lack of transparency.
In the primarily-behind-closed-doors contest to become Senate Majority Leader, John Cornyn has received one public endorsement and John Thune five, while Rick Scott has received eight (including Lee, Blackburn, Johnson and Cruz).
I wonder how this vote is conducted. Is a plurality sufficient, or will a candidate be eliminated to ensure that the winner must receive a majority vote?
I don't agree; I think one of them is first eliminated (imo Cornyn) and then one John wins the next round (betting McConnell is calling in lots of markers here)
Huge relief! Not least the fact that Scott got only one-quarter of the vote and was eliminated first. This gives some hope that the Senate leadership and the Republican majority will not be entirely subservient to Trump.
Scott is an asshole and generally unliked in the conference room. Mitch has lost some troops over the past few years (notably both TN Senators, Portman etc.) but the MAGA wing hasn't really gotten much bigger; Vance is gone, Tuberville/Blackburns are considered punchlines, Lee and Scott are both not liked etc. and the institutionalists still carry a solid majority of Senate Rs
I think behind closed doors nearly all of that wing despise Trump (and there's a fair case to be made that absent Trump's MAGA Senate candidates over the past 6 years Republicans could be at 60 votes there).
Nice analysis! I wonder whether there now will be a foundation for at least some cooperation with Senate Democrats. After all, Democrats have sought, and achieved, considerable bipartisan agreement.
I think it will be essentially the same dynamic as in Trump's first term (and past two years). The Senate will generally hammer out bipartisan appropriations and non-controversial bills, the House GOP caucus will be unable to pass almost anything because of their extreme MAGA nihilist wing, and Johnson will need Dem votes to pass basically whatever the Senate agreed to.
That said, they'll go straight partisan reconciliation on a new tax bill and probably immigration, since that latter is where Trump has promised the most/spent the highest political capital. Although the ? is Thune's caucus willing to go where Trump and Stephen Miller want to go on immigration (back to pre-60s immigration law).
He's far worse than merely an asshole. He's a crook and committed the largest Medicare and healthcare fraud in US history. Asshole plead the 5th 75 times while his companies were under investigation. Scott was the swamp long before Trump decided to join the fray and likely outlast him. Scott is the absolute worst of crooks out there.
In recent years we have seen several members of the California delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives choose to leave DC and continue their political careers back home in the Golden State. This may be because the commute from CA to DC is brutal and the partisan divide is toxic. In California there is more of a chance for legislators to have an impact on policy. In Los Angeles County two of the five current Supervisors are former members of Congress (Hilda Solis and Janice Hahn). There are others in different areas of the state as well. The state legislature is also a landing spot for former House members. Today is the followup to a "where are they now" feature from DKE after the primary.
Three former House members ran for CA Legislature seats. In NorCal we have a winner in Jerry McNerney (D), who leads in SD-05 by about 53% to 47% over a GOP challenger. Also in the Central Valley a GOP former congressman, George Radanovich, ran for Assembly in AD-08 and is losing to another Repub by 47% to 53%.
The final race is undecided, where SD-35 has a lead of fewer than 3000 votes for Laura Richardson in a L.A. County district, over Michelle Chambers, a former Compton City Councilmember. Both are Black Democrats. Chambers got both the LACDP (county party org.) and L.A. Times endorsements. Richardson had some ethics problems when she was in the House (pressuring staffers to work on her election campaign.) Maybe Laura had more name recognition than Michelle? I don't know. While Chambers seems more progressive, the left shift in L.A. late vote counts might not apply since they are both Democrats. It is not over, but Richardson is likely going back to Sacramento. She served briefly in the Assembly before her election to the House of Representatives.
That isn't my part of the state and I don't know much about either Radanovich or David Tangipa, the winner. It might just be that Tangipa is younger; Radanovich is 69 years old. Also Radanovich ran for State Senate in 2022 and didn't even make it to the runoff, so his campaigning skills may be weak.
Sometimes corruption and lack of transparency ironically works out for the better of society. Much as I hate backroom deals, this could have easily escalated into a clown show spectacle on social media if the votes were made public.
A good case to be made that CSPAN was one of the worst things to ever happen to Congress - everyone talks to the camera instead of each other, and it allowed the Gingrich types to thrive.
Republicans went with the least horrible option? That's out of character for them.
Strategically this isn't ideal for us because Thune strikes me as someone who will be competent at the job. It's better for our country though, so I prefer it.
As long as the sociopathic wing* of the party keeps grumbling and picking fights with him, it may work out better for us after all. It'll still be bad, don't get me wrong (Thune will never be a friend to us), but that was decided when the Senate flipped.
*Yeah, I know... the obvious question is "which one?"
That would be nice. My expectation is that he'll do a better job keeping their senate caucus focused on what they need to get done, but will curb the worst ~5-10% things to be merely "really bad" instead of "incredibly, truly horrific." Cornyn would have done that half as much, and Scott would have insisted on making things even worse.
In 2020 Biden ran behind the D-R split in votes cast by about 6k. In 2022 Masto ran ahead of it by 36k. This year Harris appears to have run behind the split by at least 30k.
ME-02: Yesterday, Maine started its ranked choice tabulation in the House contest between Democratic incumbent Jared Golden and Republican challenger Austin Theriault. It is expected to take 3 to 5 days to complete. This is the third ranked-choice runoff in the past four elections for Maine's 2nd Congressional District.
Even though Golden won more than 50% of first-choice votes, and leads by 0.3%, Golden is below the 50% threshold when all votes are considered. There were 420 write-in votes for Diana Merenda, and more than 12,000 voters didn't indicate any candidate as their first-ranked choice.
Before the RCV tabulation, Golden has a 2100-vote advantage. The live RCV count will eventually be displayed here:
https://mainemorningstar.com/2024/11/12/how-to-watch-the-ranked-choice-run-off-for-maines-2nd-congressional-district/
It’ll be interesting to see how many people who left the first choice blank actually put any other choices.
It's a stupid thing that they are doing though (ONLY 2 candidates actually qualified)
I believe that’s the point as there were 12k ballots like that. That’s what makes him under the majority of total Congressional race voters while having a majority of 1st choice voters.
So he got a majority but he didn't? Every time I think I understand RCV, I discover there's another layer of complication I hadn't considered.
Bellows made an idiotic decision imo
Agreed. And for obvious reasons, Theriault’s chances are literally nil.
People who skipped the 1st choice vote but did pick a 2nd choice (who the fuck does that?!?) means that he won a majority of people who ranked him 1st but not a majority of people who voted in the Congressional race.
It’s stupid but fair. Bc again, who the fuck votes like that?!? It’s people thinking their first choice is Mickey Mouse but that’s not an option so I’ll just start with my 2nd. Same type of dumb fucks who fill in the bubble for Al Franken but then write in Lizard People. That guy is an absolute legend, don’t get me wrong.
Re Austin
What's the point of moving your local elections to Presidential years if the outcome is frequently going to be decided in a low turnout December runoff? They should either adopt some sort of RCV, (assuming that's not banned in Texas), or use a Preliminary election to narrow the field. (We have preliminaries in Massachusetts.)
Clearly the answer is preliminary (any votes after November are ridiculous; including Georgia and Louisiana)
The national popular vote for president in 2024 will look eerily similar to the popular vote for U.S. House in 2022. The winner by state will be exactly the same — at least if you take the combined Republican vote in Alaska in 2022. And many of the details will be similar as well, like Republicans’ big gains in Florida and New York.
As a result, the 2024 presidential election results by state correlate more closely with the swings from the 2022 midterm elections for the U.S. House than with the result of the 2020 presidential election.
. . . .
But with hindsight, the 2022 midterm wasn’t an ordinary election. It was the first election after the pandemic and the upheaval that followed, and the lasting results suggest that many critical electoral shifts were already in motion two years ago.
As I noted before this election, the pattern suggests that Democrats lost many voters as a result of events in 2021 and 2022 — including rising prices, a crime surge, the debate over “woke” and resentment over school closures and pandemic-era restrictions.
https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/dynamic/render?campaign_id=277&emc=edit_nc_20241113&free_trial=0&instance_id=139486&isViewInBrowser=true&nl=the-tilt®i_id=77748371&segment_id=183043&sendId=183043&uri=nyt://newsletter/340a14cc-f250-58f8-914a-bf4da13d6575&user_id=adf014a083d008fed9902946a660dad8
Yeah. Both 22 and 24 are two separate elections running together, a close fight in the swing states, a red wave in most safe blue and red states.
Certainly a depressing thought. Wonder how retrievable a lot of those voters are, then, or if they’ll simply never forgive their pandemic era anger
Among those who will neither forgive – nor hold Democrats in unforgiveness – are the more-than one million Americans who died of Covid. Imagine the electoral ramifications, and the widespread acceptance of mitigating measures, had those Americans been the victim of terrorism?
A pretty solid swath of evidence has shown NPIs had practically no effect on ultimate infections/death counts. We need to honestly confront data that challenges entrenched narratives if we want to progress both on a policy and corresponding political front.
NPI (New Product Introduction)... Or is this an abbreviation for what you mean? Not sure what you mean. Are you saying that Covid vaccines had no effect on infections/death rates?
No NPI=non-pharmaceutical intervention. So school and park closures, mask requirements etc. Made sense very early on; by Fall 2020 it was clear at the minimum schools should have been open for in-person learning.
I'm not convinced that you are correct
when Trump's tariffs kick in; yup, they'll forgive quickly
Yeah, a lot of those people don’t care about trans people anyway.
not following you?🤔
I agree with you. A lot of voters will suddenly realize they don’t know any trans people and will continue to not give a shit about them. Eggs!!!!!!
Lol at putting "the debate over woke" in a group with inflation, crime, and pandemic disruptions.
The city of Irvine, even though almost 300,000 people usually gets ignored in California because everything else is so large.
For the first time, we voted by district for council instead of at large. We have one council seat, district 1, that was separated by 4 votes, but after the vote dump last night is now 18. My district 4 unfortunately voted for the at large incumbent only Republican. Fortunately, he isn't truly awful.
Also from Irvine, Larry Agran, who ran for president in 1992, seems like he will be mayor again. He has been in and out of city government as mayor and council almost since the city was formed. He's the poster child for term limits. I supported Kim who's in a distant #2.
Positively, David Min, my state senator, will now be my US representative. Congratulations! I knew this one would be close, and it was.
Unfortunately, the state Senate seat that Min left is going Republican. Josh Newman is trailing Steven Choi by an amount unlikely to be made up. Choi was the first Korean American mayor of Irvine and with Newman being from Fullerton (far north OC), this may have been a geographic loss.
What's your take on choi?🤔
As mayor he was a little too generous to developers, but Republicans who run in city non partisan elections don't generally espouse a radical right wing agenda.
The city is progressive in extracting set aside low income housing for any apartment development, and growth of mid rise apartment development has been explosive.
not being flippant here; in my long experience, all Republicans are a 'little too generous to developers'
How times have changed since Teddy Roosevelt!
Unfortunately, so are many Democrats. Irvine is the most progressive city in OC at getting low income housing, and it's in every apartment complex throughout the city instead of stand alone complexes. You have everyone who pays $3000 for a one bedroom rubbing elbows with people paying $800.
I’m just surprised he wanted another go at it at 80
Some outlets have called it for Min? NBC is still showing it uncalled.
true but it's over (Min lead going to keep increasing)
I thought Scott Baugh conceded?
He did
LA Times and OC Register have.
The Guardian will no longer be posting any election content (nor any other content) on Xitter. The Guardian’s statement about the reason for its move is striking and blunt:
“This is something we have been considering for a while given the often disturbing content promoted or found on the platform, including far-right conspiracy theories and racism. The US presidential election campaign served only to underline what we have considered for a long time: that X is a toxic media platform and that its owner, Elon Musk, has been able to use its influence to shape political discourse.”
The Guardian has more than 80 accounts on X with approximately 27 million followers.
They are on bluesky now. Lots of journalists have opened accounts there, it’s currently the top free app in the Apple App Store.
How old is Jay Jones? He looks like a teenager
35.
He's young, but he's smart, active, and quite charismatic. He has a bright future ahead of him should he get to the general election.
I hope the primary here in Virginia for AG isn't too brutal. Luckily as the out party we can afford it better than we could were we the incumbent party.
The race dynamics will be some type of outsider vs insider; hopefully not overly negative(wonder if any other viable candidate runs?)
Yes and no. Jones served in the Virginia House of Delegates. Taylor is the incumbent Commonwealth's Attorney of Henrico (pronounced Hen-Rike-Co) County outside Richmond. The contrast between them will be age (Taylor is 57), gender, and region. With Abigail Spanberger at the top of the ticket, there will be more pressure to pick someone not from Greater Richmond. Jones has the edge there.
Wait, I always thought that county was pronounced hen-REE-ko.
Nope. Locals will tell you Hen-Rike-CO.
Yikes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFsIORt2eF0
kind of like Houston County in Georgia (definitely not pronounced like the city of Houston)
HOW-ston
That I already knew.
It the NYC street.
Or Versailles and Yosemite in Kentucky. Pronounced Ver SALES and YO Se Mite
Albany in Georgia (not New York)
https://punchbowl.news/article/house/next-leaders-nrcc-dccc/
Hakeem Jeffries has power to appoint the head of the DCCC. So far he's quiet but people expected Susan DelBene to stay on before Tuesday happened. Sara Jones of California. Who absolutely no one has heard of before either, is being rumored but is not seeking it out publicly.
The DSCCs only interest thus far has been Kirsten Gillibrand. I think this is actually a great choice if it comes to pass. She understands electorates very well. Hopefully she can remain impartial to every candidate and not just women though.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/12/democrats-race-dnc-chair-00189112
The race for DNC Chair has widened yall. Names now mentioned aside from the three I said yesterday now include Laphonza Butler, Mitchell Landreau, Martin O'Malley, Rahm Emmanuel.
Jaimie Harrison not expected to stay on.
Edit: infighting already with Dean Phillips team trying to ice Ben Wikler for opposing his ballot access in Wisconsin this year.
I'm not uncomfortable with any of those but I'd prefer it not be Rahm(unfortunately, Butler is from California and I think that may unfairly hurt her)
Laphonza Butler was previously head of Emily's List and has direct experience running a grassroots network.
However, outside of Emily's List, I don't know what Butler would offer if she were DNC Chair.
More coastal talk for the House and Senate there. We can't just be a party from California and New York. Also, Rahm? Who, at least as I understand it, helped kill the 50 state strategy? Great.
Excuse my French; Fuck Dean Phillips !!
Or don’t.
Lmao😂
Why? He was clearly right. If Biden had been replaced sooner with a real primary the Dem may have won.
Strongly suspect the outcome would have been the same, only Harris would have had to slog it out, endure attacks from other Dems, run to the left, etc., before eventually clinching the nomination. And then into the general election in no better and quite possibly a worse place. I suppose there's some alternate reality where she gets defeated by Dem Jesus who just makes an entirely different 2024 happen but I doubt it!
Our Dem Jesus would have been defeated by this Republican Jesus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZ2L-R8NgrA&t=18s
Considering her past performances I have my doubts she would have prevailed had it been open
Full disagree
lol, this site is approaching full DK front page status. She was an objectively awful candidate from the start, which is why Biden kneecapped her to stick to the Dem establishment that forced him out. Last Tuesday proves this.
pretty sure I am talking about wikler; so, again I say, Fuck Dean Phillips
Mitch Landrieu would be an interesting choice. He’s apart of the Landrieu family and is considered politically savvy. Hailing from the LA also gives him an understanding of, like Jaime Harrison, being in a red Southern State.
Get Rahm Emmanuel as far away from the DNC as possible. He was an ass to Howard Dean when he was DNC Chair and became a hard liner as Mayor of Chicago. Not a good spokesperson or strategist when the goal is to implement a 50 state strategy.
Trivia, now irrelevant: Women in Afghanistan were given the right to vote in 1919 – before American women were granted that right.
That is not correct. Some women in the U.S. had the right to vote before 1920, depending on which state they lived in. In California women got the vote in 1911, thanks to an initiative that passed. In Wyoming it was even earlier; Since statehood in 1889 (if my memory serves me well.) 1920 is when all U.S. women got the right to vote, because of an amendment to the Constitution.
I should have been more precise. But what you write is not entirely correct either. Not all women were able to vote after the Constitutional Amendment was passed in 1920.
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/vote-not-all-women-gained-right-to-vote-in-1920/
Wyoming actually passed equal suffrage back in 1869 when it became a territory. Keeping said suffrage was a self imposed catch to their achieving statehood in 1890.
Jeez, it seems twelve coats of paint can dry faster than significant progress being made in the Pennsylvania vote count!
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/pennsylvania-senate-results#senate-results
Any thoughts on Senator Bob Casey’s chances of closing his 29,309-vote deficit and emerging the victor?
Casey needs a miracle. The formula for the miracle: Win Allegheny & Philadelphia 90-10; Win Delaware, Chester, Montgomery & Bucks 75-25; Split the rest of the Commonwealth 50-50.
I give him a 2% chance.
Presuming the results don't change, here is hoping Josh Shapiro runs for the US Senate in 2030. And that's presuming he wins reelection in 2026.
Shapiro's approval rating is over 50% because he's competent. The GOP is probably going to nominate a lunatic outsider like they usually do. Also, the race will be run during a GOP Presidential mid-term without a US Senate race. Barring disaster, I like his chances.
Hopefully he’ll be VP and too busy for a Senate campaign. Or, wait, I didn’t mean for that to be a joke. VP isn’t a real job but still.
Let's wait and see. So far, ballots coming in have been splitting towards Casey.
Casey needs to win 70% of the outstanding estimated ballots. If Allegheny or Philadelphia come back below 85% Casey, it's over.
I’m aware of that. And based on McCormick’s actions, so does he: https://x.com/maevemcoyle/status/1856710692297929077?s=46&t=NhLQrgM30BfZmjI73-3rMg
Yesterday, Paleo pointed out that there were at least 40,000 votes left to count in Philadelphia, with the remainder of the then-92,000 remaining votes spread throughout the state. Casey has been winning 78% of the votes in Philadelpia (not sure about the VBM/EV difference in that split). As of this morning, 5% of the votes there have yet to be counted. Rough, back-of-the-envelope math indicates there might be roughly 36,000 votes left there. It does look a tough uphill climb.
According to Michael Pruser, there are about 12k left in Philadelphia & about 74.3k total left statewide. This process isn't very transparent & it's frustrating to all parties.
Where are you getting the 12K number? Scrolling through Pruser's feed and having a hard time finding that. He did echo your sentiment though about the lack of transparency.
Cell Q54 on the "VOTE LEFT & DROPPED" sheet.
Thank you. I'll keep an open mind that it's both still an estimation and a lack of transparency that we don't know for sure.
In the primarily-behind-closed-doors contest to become Senate Majority Leader, John Cornyn has received one public endorsement and John Thune five, while Rick Scott has received eight (including Lee, Blackburn, Johnson and Cruz).
https://www.axios.com/2024/11/13/rick-scott-senate-republican-leader-forum
I’m really really hoping that one of the two not-100%-MAGA candidates wins this vote.
Is that today?🤔
Yes, I believe so.
Go John!
Seems like the Johns will divide the normie vote and hand it over to Scott.
I wonder how this vote is conducted. Is a plurality sufficient, or will a candidate be eliminated to ensure that the winner must receive a majority vote?
Secret ballot with majority required (most likely 2 rounds)
I don't agree; I think one of them is first eliminated (imo Cornyn) and then one John wins the next round (betting McConnell is calling in lots of markers here)
Hope you're right.
in reality, since Rubio is slated for SOS, I can see Marco screwing Scott in the secret ballot (Rubio, Scott, and DeSantis all hate each other)
Anyways, get ur popcorn !!
He was eliminated first (secret ballot karma)
First ballot:
Thune: 23, Cornyn 15, Scott 13. Going to second ballot. And Two write-ins.
Lol at Scott placing third
Thune takes it on the 2nd 29-24
Huge relief! Not least the fact that Scott got only one-quarter of the vote and was eliminated first. This gives some hope that the Senate leadership and the Republican majority will not be entirely subservient to Trump.
Scott is an asshole and generally unliked in the conference room. Mitch has lost some troops over the past few years (notably both TN Senators, Portman etc.) but the MAGA wing hasn't really gotten much bigger; Vance is gone, Tuberville/Blackburns are considered punchlines, Lee and Scott are both not liked etc. and the institutionalists still carry a solid majority of Senate Rs
I think behind closed doors nearly all of that wing despise Trump (and there's a fair case to be made that absent Trump's MAGA Senate candidates over the past 6 years Republicans could be at 60 votes there).
Nice analysis! I wonder whether there now will be a foundation for at least some cooperation with Senate Democrats. After all, Democrats have sought, and achieved, considerable bipartisan agreement.
I think it will be essentially the same dynamic as in Trump's first term (and past two years). The Senate will generally hammer out bipartisan appropriations and non-controversial bills, the House GOP caucus will be unable to pass almost anything because of their extreme MAGA nihilist wing, and Johnson will need Dem votes to pass basically whatever the Senate agreed to.
That said, they'll go straight partisan reconciliation on a new tax bill and probably immigration, since that latter is where Trump has promised the most/spent the highest political capital. Although the ? is Thune's caucus willing to go where Trump and Stephen Miller want to go on immigration (back to pre-60s immigration law).
He's far worse than merely an asshole. He's a crook and committed the largest Medicare and healthcare fraud in US history. Asshole plead the 5th 75 times while his companies were under investigation. Scott was the swamp long before Trump decided to join the fray and likely outlast him. Scott is the absolute worst of crooks out there.
The House District Results That Tell the Presidential Story
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-house-district-results-that-tell-the-presidential-story/
More News from California:
In recent years we have seen several members of the California delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives choose to leave DC and continue their political careers back home in the Golden State. This may be because the commute from CA to DC is brutal and the partisan divide is toxic. In California there is more of a chance for legislators to have an impact on policy. In Los Angeles County two of the five current Supervisors are former members of Congress (Hilda Solis and Janice Hahn). There are others in different areas of the state as well. The state legislature is also a landing spot for former House members. Today is the followup to a "where are they now" feature from DKE after the primary.
Three former House members ran for CA Legislature seats. In NorCal we have a winner in Jerry McNerney (D), who leads in SD-05 by about 53% to 47% over a GOP challenger. Also in the Central Valley a GOP former congressman, George Radanovich, ran for Assembly in AD-08 and is losing to another Repub by 47% to 53%.
The final race is undecided, where SD-35 has a lead of fewer than 3000 votes for Laura Richardson in a L.A. County district, over Michelle Chambers, a former Compton City Councilmember. Both are Black Democrats. Chambers got both the LACDP (county party org.) and L.A. Times endorsements. Richardson had some ethics problems when she was in the House (pressuring staffers to work on her election campaign.) Maybe Laura had more name recognition than Michelle? I don't know. While Chambers seems more progressive, the left shift in L.A. late vote counts might not apply since they are both Democrats. It is not over, but Richardson is likely going back to Sacramento. She served briefly in the Assembly before her election to the House of Representatives.
Apparently radonovich isn't crazy enough? Your thoughts?
That isn't my part of the state and I don't know much about either Radanovich or David Tangipa, the winner. It might just be that Tangipa is younger; Radanovich is 69 years old. Also Radanovich ran for State Senate in 2022 and didn't even make it to the runoff, so his campaigning skills may be weak.
Scott first eliminated !! Truly a horrible person that no one likes !! That is funny. !!!!😂😂😂😂😂
Most hilarious outcome
Thune won 29-24
Figured he would. Had it not been a secret ballot, who knows.
me too
Sometimes corruption and lack of transparency ironically works out for the better of society. Much as I hate backroom deals, this could have easily escalated into a clown show spectacle on social media if the votes were made public.
A good case to be made that CSPAN was one of the worst things to ever happen to Congress - everyone talks to the camera instead of each other, and it allowed the Gingrich types to thrive.
Considerably better than both alternatives
Republicans went with the least horrible option? That's out of character for them.
Strategically this isn't ideal for us because Thune strikes me as someone who will be competent at the job. It's better for our country though, so I prefer it.
As long as the sociopathic wing* of the party keeps grumbling and picking fights with him, it may work out better for us after all. It'll still be bad, don't get me wrong (Thune will never be a friend to us), but that was decided when the Senate flipped.
*Yeah, I know... the obvious question is "which one?"
That would be nice. My expectation is that he'll do a better job keeping their senate caucus focused on what they need to get done, but will curb the worst ~5-10% things to be merely "really bad" instead of "incredibly, truly horrific." Cornyn would have done that half as much, and Scott would have insisted on making things even worse.
Final Ralston update on Nevada:
The stat to remember for this election: The Ds won Clark by 46,600 votes and Harris won Clark by 27,000 votes.
Another one that tells us a lot about Washoe: The Rs won there by nearly 10,000 votes, and Harris won by about 700 votes. Wow.
Nonpartisans in the urban counties are very different.
Wow, that’s a hell of a stat
In 2020 Biden ran behind the D-R split in votes cast by about 6k. In 2022 Masto ran ahead of it by 36k. This year Harris appears to have run behind the split by at least 30k.