Morning Digest: Wealthy independent pummels GOP congressman with massive ad blitz

Democrats aren't fielding a candidate in this conservative Nevada district

Nevada independent Greg Kidd (credit: Greg Kidd ad screenshot)

Leading Off

NV-02

Republican Rep. Mark Amodei is facing an unexpected barrage of campaign ads as independent Greg Kidd pours his personal wealth into unseating the longtime incumbent in northern Nevada's conservative 2nd District.

As the Nevada Independent's Tabitha Mueller reports, spending in the race has been extremely one-sided: Citing data from AdImpact, she reports that Kidd has spent or reserved $3 million on the airwaves since June, compared to all of $110,000 from Amodei.

Democrats are not fielding a candidate against Amodei, who has spent nearly six years as Nevada's only Republican member of Congress. Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen and the state party leadership, however, are supporting Kidd.

The circumstances are in some respects similar to the Nebraska Senate race between Republican Sen. Deb Fischer and independent Dan Osborn. There, however, outside groups on both sides are spending heavily.

By contrast, the battle for Nevada's 2nd has attracted only minimal third-party action. Republican groups have yet to deploy anything for Amodei, while Kidd has benefited from just over $10,000 in support from a PAC affiliated with Planned Parenthood. But that small expenditure, as well as Rosen's endorsement, says a great deal about Kidd's base of support.

The only remotely recent poll we've seen of this unusual contest was a late August survey from Emerson College showing Amodei with a giant 44-13 lead on Kidd, with another 6% going to Lynn Chapman of the American Independent Party. (The AIP was established to support the 1968 presidential run of segregationist George Wallace; in more recent years, many Californias looking to register as independents have mistakenly selected the AIP option, including boxer Sugar Ray Leonard and actor Demi Moore.)

But Kidd, an early investor in both Square and Twitter (now X), is counting on his vast resources to help him close the gap. Though he was a registered Republican before filing to run for office this spring, he told News 4 in May that he supports abortion rights and has also faulted Amodei for being too partisan.

Kidd has used his ads to affirm his support for term limits and his independence from either major party. His team has also refused to say who would get his vote for speaker, only telling the Nevada Current's Hugh Jackson that "he’ll support the leadership candidates who are going to do the most for Nevada."

But Amodei, despite his massive financial deficit, remains favored in a sprawling constituency that Donald Trump carried 54-43 in 2020. While over 60% of Amodei's constituents live in Washoe County—a key battleground in any statewide race—the 2nd District's overwhelmingly conservative rural counties have kept it in GOP hands during its entire four decades of existence.

The last Democrat to represent this area in the House was Jim Santini, but he served at a time when Nevada was so small it had just a single at-large seat in the lower chamber. The state finally gained a second seat following the 1980 census, and as a result, most of the Las Vegas area went to the new 1st District. Reno and rural Nevada were incorporated into the geographically enormous 2nd District.

Rather than seek reelection, Santini opted to wage an unsuccessful primary challenge against scandal-ridden Sen. Howard Cannon―Cannon would lose to Republican Chic Hecht that fall―while a rising star from each party would claim one of Nevada's two new House seats. The 2nd District went to Republican Barbara Vucanovich, whose decisive general election win made her the first Latina to serve in Congress. Democrat Harry Reid, meanwhile, claimed the other seat, and in 1986 he'd beat the party-switching Santini to join the Senate.

The Silver State now includes three Democratic-held seats in the Vegas area, while the 2nd continues to resemble the Republican bastion that Vucanovich first won 42 years ago. The constituency hasn't been completely safe for Republicans during this time―Democrats fell about 5 points short of victory in 1992 and 2006―but Republicans in northern Nevada have otherwise had little to worry about.

John McCain, however, put up a surprisingly weak showing in the 2nd District when he ran for president in 2008. That led Democrats to think they might finally have the chance to make history when the seat became vacant in 2011 after Gov. Brian Sandoval appointed Rep. Dean Heller to the Senate. (The Republican Heller replaced, John Ensign, resigned in disgrace after attempting to conceal an extramarital affair, but his early departure gave his replacement the advantage of incumbency.)

The special election that fall, though, occurred when President Barack Obama, who was coming off a bruising debt ceiling fight with Congress, was posting some of the worst approval ratings of his presidency. Amodei, a former state senator and state party chair, turned in a lopsided 58-36 victory over state Treasurer Kate Marshall, and he never had to worry about a Democratic foe again.

But the congressman has faced trouble from a different direction in recent years: his right flank. In 2022, he went through an expensive primary battle against Douglas County Commissioner Danny Tarkanian, a wealthy perennial candidate who had only recently relocated north from the Las Vegas area. Tarkanian reminded Republicans that Amodei briefly showed some openness to impeaching Trump in 2019 and had blamed the GOP's master for the Jan. 6 attack.

Amodei in turn blasted Tarkanian as an interloper and didn't come close to losing, but his 55-32 showing demonstrated that a large minority of Republicans wanted someone new. This June, he turned in another unimpressive performance when he beat an unheralded intraparty foe 64-36. Kidd, for his part, is hoping those results demonstrate that conservative voters are open to backing a non-Democrat like himself over their current congressman.

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3Q Fundraising

• NE-Sen-A: Dan Osborn (I): $3.2 million raised

• CA-40: Young Kim (R-inc): $1.5 million raised, $3.2 million cash on hand

• PA-17: Chris Deluzio (D-inc) $1.6 million raised 

House

CA-34

AIPAC's United Democracy Project, which had largely gone dormant since helping to oust two House incumbents in Democratic primaries earlier this year, has returned with a new effort to protect Rep. Jimmy Gomez in an all-Democratic matchup in California's dark blue 34th District.

The hawkish pro-Israel group is spending about $400,000 on ads and mailers aimed at boosting the Los Angeles congressman and hitting former prosecutor David Kim, who lost two close races against the incumbent in 2020 and 2022. The contents of AIPAC's new paid communications are not yet known, but as Jewish Insider's Marc Rod notes, Kim "has advocated for a far-left foreign policy platform that includes cutting off U.S. aid to Israel," as well as ending sanctions on Iran and North Korea.

Analyst Rob Pyers further flags that Protect Progress, a super PAC backed by the cryptocurrency industry, is also jumping in on Gomez's behalf with a $500,000 ad buy. The group's ads for this district, which includes Downtown Los Angeles and nearby neighborhoods, are likewise not yet available.

Ballot Measures

AK Ballot

Supporters of Alaska's top-four primary have outraised the campaign to repeal the system 100-to-1, Claire Stremple writes in the Alaska Beacon—and no, that's not an exaggeration. New campaign finance reports show that the effort to defeat Ballot Measure 2 has brought in a total of $12 million, while the "yes" side has raised just $120,000.

But Phillip Izon, the activist behind the repeal campaign, insists that his side will prevail in this "David and Goliath story" thanks to what he argues is a massive advantage in enthusiasm. Izon isn't around to experience such energy firsthand, though: He spoke to Stremple from Hawaii, where, as she explains, he's "taking a monthslong break."

RI Ballot

Gov. Dan McKee and fellow Democrats in the legislature are urging Rhode Islanders to vote against holding a state constitutional convention, a question that automatically comes up once per decade.

The governor's team told the Providence Journal's Patrick Anderson that McKee opposes Question 1 because it could endanger the state's safeguards for "women’s reproductive health, gun safety, LGBTQ+ rights and worker protections."

But top Republicans in the legislature and the state GOP are calling on voters in this reliably blue state to support a convention. Senate Minority Leader Jessica de la Cruz told the paper that McKee's side, which she said also includes "the ACLU, Planned Parenthood, and RI Atheists," wants to protect the status quo.

Last month, the University of New Hampshire found a 39-28 plurality in favor of Question 1, while MassInc gave the "yes" side a smaller 36-33 advantage. Both polls, however, showed a large portion of respondents undecided, which poses a potentially tough obstacle to anyone who wants a constitutional convention. Anderson writes that labor groups and the ACLU are mounting a concerted campaign to beat Question 1, but there's no comparable effort to pass it.

UT Ballot

A Utah court has voided another constitutional amendment placed on the ballot by Republican lawmakers after they failed to publish their proposal to end a requirement that income tax revenues go toward public education.

Last month, the Utah Supreme Court upheld a ruling in a similar case that voided an amendment to neuter the ballot initiative process. In that dispute, Judge Dianna Gibson concluded that legislators had violated the state constitution because, among other things, they had not published their proposed amendment in newspapers at least two months before the November elections.

Republicans conceded that their income tax plan, known as Amendment A, suffered from the defect. As a result, it met the same fate as Amendment D, their proposal to gut initiatives, as Judge Laura Scott explained in a three-page order. Both amendments will appear on ballots, which have already been printed, but votes for them won't count.

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Judges

MN Supreme Court

Three justices on the Minnesota Supreme Court, whose seven members were all appointed by Democrats, are up for election this November, but as Bolts' Daniel Nichanian notes, the far-right views of two challengers have gone largely unnoticed.

One incumbent, Anne McKeig, is unopposed in November's officially nonpartisan elections. But Chief Justice Natalie Hudson faces an opponent, attorney Stephen Emery, who has promoted conspiracy theories about voter fraud. He also won election as county attorney in rural Yellow Medicine County two years ago but resigned shortly after Election Day for unclear reasons, though possibly because he lacked any prosecutorial experience.

Likewise, Justice Karl Procaccini's rival, attorney Matthew Hanson, has suggested that Democrats "rigged" the 2020 elections and tweeted last year, "I support Donald Trump because he ended abortion and racism." A recent rundown of the state's judicial elections in the Minnesota Star Tribune, however, did not investigate either challenger's political views.

Both incumbents are seeking six-year terms, though Procaccini, who was named to the bench by Gov. Tim Walz last year, has not appeared on the ballot before. Hudson, who first joined the court in 2015, handily won her first election by a 59-41 margin the following year. She was unopposed in 2022 but must go before voters again this year because Walz elevated her to the role of chief justice last year.

Democrats are likely to carry Minnesota this year, and as incumbents, both Hudson and Procaccini are favored to win. (According to MinnPost's Greta Kaul, no sitting justice has lost since the 1940s.) But candidates for the Supreme Court are not identified with party labels, making judicial elections more uncertain.

Mayors & County Leaders

Oakland, CA Mayor & Alameda County, CA District Attorney

California Rep. Barbara Lee announced her opposition this week to the recall campaigns against two fellow East Bay progressives, Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao and Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price. But Lee, who represents almost half of Alameda County and all of Oakland, did not mention either incumbent in a social media post explaining her views.

The congresswoman instead blasted recalls as inherently "undemocratic, costly, and chaotic" and argued that "voters—through regular elections, not a few billionaires—are the ones with the power to ensure our democratic process remains strong and in place." State Sen. Nancy Skinner, who also serves the same area, favorably shared Lee's post while also declining to specifically mention either Thao or Price.

Thao's supporters used similar language at her campaign kickoff over the weekend, with one speaker telling the crowd that "every elected official that is democratically elected to their post, they’re all at risk at this point."

The mayor likewise attacked Philip Dreyfuss, who is financing both recall campaigns, as a "hedge fund manager who does not live in Oakland," though she did not mention him by name. Dreyfuss lists his primary residence as the Alameda County city of Piedmont, a wealthy enclave surrounded entirely by Oakland, though Oaklandside writes that his political committee identifies him as a denizen of Oakland.

But Oakland voters parsing their local voter guide won't read such arguments in favor of keeping Thao—or any arguments at all. That's because Thao's team didn't submit anything to election officials, which means there will be a blank space where her rebuttal would otherwise be. 

"This one fell through the cracks," an anti-recall spokesperson told the San Francisco Chronicle. "We wish we could have done it if we had our time back." Recall expert Joshua Spivak writes that such a mistake has occurred in other such campaigns but is still "obviously a bit strange."

Other Races

Bozeman, MT

Voters in Bozeman, Montana, will select members of a commission to study potential changes to local government next month, prompting Bolts' Alex Burness to take a detailed look at an election that's as "down-ballot as down-ballot can be."

The campaign comes at a time when voters in this 53,000-person city (Montana's fourth-largest) are dealing with rising housing costs. A progressive group called Organizers with Tenants United is hoping to pass changes that would weaken the power of Bozeman's unelected city manager, but Burness has much more on what could lie ahead.

Polling Pile

• AZ-Sen: Emerson College for The Hill: Ruben Gallego (D): 50, Kari Lake (R): 43 (49-47 Trump) (late Sept.: 52-41 Gallego)

• FL-Sen: Marist College: Rick Scott (R-inc): 50, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): 48 (51-47 Trump)

• FL-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Scott (R-inc): 49, Mucarsel-Powell (D): 40 (53-40 Trump)

• MI-Sen: Emerson: Elissa Slotkin (D): 49, Mike Rogers (R): 44 (49-49 presidential tie) (mid-Sept.: 47-42 Slotkin)

• MT-Sen: Siena: Tim Sheehy (R): 52, Jon Tester (D-inc): 44 (56-39 Trump)

• MT-Sen: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for the Montana Republican Party: Sheehy (R): 51, Tester (D-inc): 45 (Aug.: 51-44 Sheehy)

• NE-Sen-A: Change Research (D) for Dan Osborn: Dan Osborn (I): 46, Deb Fischer (R-inc): 43 (58-38 Trump)

• NV-Sen: Emerson: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 50, Sam Brown (R): 42 (48-47 Harris) (mid-Sept.: 48-41 Brown)

• OH-Sen: Marist: Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 50, Bernie Moreno (R): 48 (52-46 Trump) (June: 50-45 Brown)

• OH-Sen: Braun Research for the Washington Post: Brown (D-inc): 48, Moreno (R): 47 (51-45 Trump)

• PA-Sen: Emerson: Bob Casey (D-inc): 48, Dave McCormick (R): 46 (49-48 Trump) (late Sept.: 47-45 Casey)

• TX-Sen: Marist: Ted Cruz (R-inc): 51, Colin Allred (D): 46 (53-46 Trump) (March: 51-45 Cruz)

• TX-Sen: Siena: Cruz (R-inc): 48, Allred (D): 44 (49-42 Trump)

• WI-Sen: Emerson: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 50, Eric Hovde (R): 46 (49-49 presidential tie) (mid-Sept.: 49-46 Baldwin)

• MT-Gov: Siena: Greg Gianforte (R-inc): 57, Ryan Busse (D): 35

• MT-Gov: POS (R): Gianforte (R-inc): 55, Busse (D): 36 (Aug.: 53-34 Gianforte)

• NC-Gov: Emerson: Josh Stein (D): 50, Mark Robinson (R): 34 (49-48 Trump) (late Sept.: 52-33 Stein)

• PA-07: Muhlenberg College for The Morning Call: Susan Wild (D-inc): 51, Ryan Mackenzie (R): 45 (50-47 Harris)

• TX-34: 1892 Polling (R) for the NRCC: Vicente Gonzalez (D-inc): 49, Mayra Flores (R): 46 (49-47 Trump) (April: 48-45 Gonzalez)

• AZ Ballot: Emerson: Abortion amendment: Yes: 54, No: 33

• NV Ballot: Emerson: Abortion amendment: Yes: 55, No: 33

Emerson's last polls of Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania were conducted for different clients, all of which were affiliates of the site RealClearPolitics.

Change’s Nebraska poll had a sample size of 895 and was in the field from Oct. 3 through Oct. 8.

Ad Roundup

• AZ-Sen: VoteVets - pro-Ruben Gallego (D)

• MO-Sen: Lucas Kunce (D) - anti-Josh Hawley (R-inc)

• NV-Sen: Jacky Rosen (D-inc)

• TX-Sen: Americans for Contraception Victory Fund - anti-Ted Cruz (R-inc) and pro-Colin Allred (D) (in English and Spanish)

• VA-Sen: Tim Kaine (D-inc) - anti-Hung Cao (R)

• NC-Gov: Josh Stein (D) - anti-Mark Robinson (R); Stein

• NH-Gov: Kelly Ayotte (R)

• AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani (R-inc); Ciscomani - anti-Kirsten Engel (D) (here and here)

• CA-41: Ken Calvert (R-inc) - anti-Will Rollins (D)

• CA-45: Derek Tran (D) - anti-Michelle Steel (R-inc)

• CA-49: Mike Levin (D-inc) - anti-Matt Gunderson (R)

• IA-03: Lanon Baccam (D) - anti-Zach Nunn (R-inc)

• IL-17: Eric Sorensen (D-inc)

• ME-02: NRCC - anti-Jared Golden (D-inc)

• MI-07: NRCC - anti-Curtis Hertel (D)

• MN-02: Joe Teirab (R) and the NRCC

• MT-01: Monica Tranel (D) - anti-Ryan Zinke (R-inc)

• NV-01: Dina Titus (D-inc) and the DCCC - anti-Mark Robertson (R)

• NY-04: Anthony D'Esposito (R-inc) and the NRCC - anti-Laura Gillen (D); Gillen

• NY-17: DCCC - anti-Mike Lawler (R-inc)

• NY-19: Josh Riley (D) - anti-Marc Molinaro (R-inc)

• OH-13: Emilia Sykes (D-inc)

• VA-07: Derrick Anderson (R) and the NRCC

• FL Ballot: Vote No On 3 - anti-marijuana amendment

• FL Ballot: Vote No on Amendment 4 - anti-abortion amendment

• NE Ballot: Protect Our Rights - pro-abortion amendment

• NY Ballot: The Coalition To Protect Kids-NY - anti-Equal Rights Amendment

• NC Superintendent of Public Institution: Mo Green (D) - anti-Michele Morrow (R)