After AZ, IA is the most likely state for Dems to be able to take away a House delegation majority, thus depriving Trump of the ability to steal the election that way. So its good to see Dems putting some money into taking two seats there.
After AZ, IA is the most likely state for Dems to be able to take away a House delegation majority, thus depriving Trump of the ability to steal the election that way. So its good to see Dems putting some money into taking two seats there.
Everything will have to go right for Dems to prevent the GOP from hitting 26 majorities. They already have 24 safely guaranteed, with Wisconsin likely staying in their column as well (at best, it may become a 4-4 tie). They just need one more state to hit 26, and there are plenty of opportunities in MI, PA, AZ, IA, and AK. One or two tossup races in each of these states will determine whether the GOP hits 26, and Dems have to run the table to prevent it.
All of that said, this is all basically irrelevant now. Now that it's settled that Nebraska will not be changing its EV allocation to winner-take-all (at least not this cycle), there is no realistic path to a 269-269 tie. That was only going to happen if Harris won only the Blue Wall while losing all the other swing states, which would bring her to 269 without NE-02. Now it's basically impossible for that situation to occur, because there's no realistic combination of states that will add up to 269.
The threat was never really a tie - in the case of a true tie, the GOP would have done well enough that they would be gaurenteed a majority of majorities in the House.
The threat was, and still is, that the GOP aided by the courts finds a way to stop several key states from certifying their results and so Harris' proper electoral votes are never counted.
These are completely separate topics, and both are threats to the election. The tie was definitely a huge threat, given that there was a plausible path for Trump to get exactly 269 EVs, which would be a likely victory for him in the U.S. House. With Nebraska declining to change its rules, that scenario is mathematically impossible. Trump is either going to hit 268 and lose or go over 270 and win.
ItтАЩs a pretty long read but the quotes below are a pretty good synopsis and conclusion
тАЬ LetтАЩs unpack the three rules at the center of the controversy: the тАЬreasonable inquiryтАЭ rule, the тАЬexaminationтАЭ rule, and the new тАЬhand countтАЭ rule that showed up last week. A close read reveals that the legal and practical import of the rules will almost certainly not hamstring the certification of GeorgiaтАЩs electoral votes. And even if certification is delayed for some reason, such delays do not open up a legal loophole for Trump to overturn the election.тАЭтАж
тАЬI could spend the next hundred pages responding to hypothetical nightmare scenarios, but the bottom line is always the same. The likelihood that a Georgia county boardтАЩs refusal to certify an election could be used to overthrow a presidential election is basically nilтАФnot zero, but, as a mathematician might say, approaching zero. тАЬ
In the event of a tie, the vote doesn't count. Minnesota, for example, has a 4D-4R delegation, and is likely to remain that way. If its delegation votes the party line 4-4, its vote will not count toward the 26 needed for a majority of states. Dems' best hope is to force ties in enough states (i.e. negate their votes) to prevent the GOP from reaching 26 states. Dems also need to prevent the GOP from obtaining majorities in AK, MI, PA, VA, and NV. The GOP could also force ties in ME and CO, but that won't affect the outcome, since Dems cannot reach 26 states anyway.
Then we witness what may be the fall of the Republic (not even joking) as if this is throw to the House and the House deadlocks, we are looking at a constitutional crisis not witnessed in 2 centuries.
But the chances of that happening are now nearly zero provided Harris wins NE-02. I think there have been some comments on here that a lack of certification could also send it to the House, and I believed that was the case. But apparently itтАЩs not according to the article I linked above. If a state doesnтАЩt certify their votes those votes just get removed the total and whoever has the majority of the remaining Electoral votes wins.
How so? GA is the primary state of concern yeah? Harris can win without it, itтАЩs much more challenging for Trump to do so. On the off chance GAs votes donтАЩt get certified, the only feasible outcome I can think of where Trump would end up with the majority of the remaining votes is if Harris takes NV, MI, WI while Trump takes AZ, PA, and NC. I doubt in that world Harris would have carried GA anyway.
Sure you can play with the math and come up with other scenarios, but they donтАЩt seem very realistic to me. If Harris wins just one of NC, PA, or AZ being denied GAs EVs wonтАЩt matter. Again though, this is extremely unlikely to happen.
This isnt the last election. The scenario where activist radicals in state government can deny a rightful winner the state's electoral votes and throw it to the House is bad enough - but in theory Democrats could have a majority of delegations at some point, or at least deny the GOP that majority.
But if it literally just means the state doesnt get counted then there is no stopping that.
So sure, in this particular election the situation is likely not that dire because the only swing state right now where the GOP has the ability to really do unilateral damage. But thats not a guarantee in the future - all of the swing states at the federal level are also swing states at the state level that could give up control to the GOP after one bad midterm (i.e. imagine we get the long called for recession in 2025 after a Harris win.)
Yes of course - but in a world where Dems are winning two in IA, they likely have already won those other seats (most of which they already hold, or were very close in 2022 in the case of AZ).
After AZ, IA is the most likely state for Dems to be able to take away a House delegation majority, thus depriving Trump of the ability to steal the election that way. So its good to see Dems putting some money into taking two seats there.
Everything will have to go right for Dems to prevent the GOP from hitting 26 majorities. They already have 24 safely guaranteed, with Wisconsin likely staying in their column as well (at best, it may become a 4-4 tie). They just need one more state to hit 26, and there are plenty of opportunities in MI, PA, AZ, IA, and AK. One or two tossup races in each of these states will determine whether the GOP hits 26, and Dems have to run the table to prevent it.
All of that said, this is all basically irrelevant now. Now that it's settled that Nebraska will not be changing its EV allocation to winner-take-all (at least not this cycle), there is no realistic path to a 269-269 tie. That was only going to happen if Harris won only the Blue Wall while losing all the other swing states, which would bring her to 269 without NE-02. Now it's basically impossible for that situation to occur, because there's no realistic combination of states that will add up to 269.
The threat was never really a tie - in the case of a true tie, the GOP would have done well enough that they would be gaurenteed a majority of majorities in the House.
The threat was, and still is, that the GOP aided by the courts finds a way to stop several key states from certifying their results and so Harris' proper electoral votes are never counted.
These are completely separate topics, and both are threats to the election. The tie was definitely a huge threat, given that there was a plausible path for Trump to get exactly 269 EVs, which would be a likely victory for him in the U.S. House. With Nebraska declining to change its rules, that scenario is mathematically impossible. Trump is either going to hit 268 and lose or go over 270 and win.
The threat of non-certification seems to be largely overblown and is pretty well debunked here: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/will-georgia's-new-election-rules-allow-trump-to-steal-the-presidency
ItтАЩs a pretty long read but the quotes below are a pretty good synopsis and conclusion
тАЬ LetтАЩs unpack the three rules at the center of the controversy: the тАЬreasonable inquiryтАЭ rule, the тАЬexaminationтАЭ rule, and the new тАЬhand countтАЭ rule that showed up last week. A close read reveals that the legal and practical import of the rules will almost certainly not hamstring the certification of GeorgiaтАЩs electoral votes. And even if certification is delayed for some reason, such delays do not open up a legal loophole for Trump to overturn the election.тАЭтАж
тАЬI could spend the next hundred pages responding to hypothetical nightmare scenarios, but the bottom line is always the same. The likelihood that a Georgia county boardтАЩs refusal to certify an election could be used to overthrow a presidential election is basically nilтАФnot zero, but, as a mathematician might say, approaching zero. тАЬ
I hope that's right.
Faitheless elector
What happens with a stateтАЩs vote if the delegation is evenly split and no crossovers?
In the event of a tie, the vote doesn't count. Minnesota, for example, has a 4D-4R delegation, and is likely to remain that way. If its delegation votes the party line 4-4, its vote will not count toward the 26 needed for a majority of states. Dems' best hope is to force ties in enough states (i.e. negate their votes) to prevent the GOP from reaching 26 states. Dems also need to prevent the GOP from obtaining majorities in AK, MI, PA, VA, and NV. The GOP could also force ties in ME and CO, but that won't affect the outcome, since Dems cannot reach 26 states anyway.
Do they have to reach 26 тАУ and not just a majority of votes cast?
Then we witness what may be the fall of the Republic (not even joking) as if this is throw to the House and the House deadlocks, we are looking at a constitutional crisis not witnessed in 2 centuries.
But the chances of that happening are now nearly zero provided Harris wins NE-02. I think there have been some comments on here that a lack of certification could also send it to the House, and I believed that was the case. But apparently itтАЩs not according to the article I linked above. If a state doesnтАЩt certify their votes those votes just get removed the total and whoever has the majority of the remaining Electoral votes wins.
Oh man that's much worse.
How so? GA is the primary state of concern yeah? Harris can win without it, itтАЩs much more challenging for Trump to do so. On the off chance GAs votes donтАЩt get certified, the only feasible outcome I can think of where Trump would end up with the majority of the remaining votes is if Harris takes NV, MI, WI while Trump takes AZ, PA, and NC. I doubt in that world Harris would have carried GA anyway.
Sure you can play with the math and come up with other scenarios, but they donтАЩt seem very realistic to me. If Harris wins just one of NC, PA, or AZ being denied GAs EVs wonтАЩt matter. Again though, this is extremely unlikely to happen.
This isnt the last election. The scenario where activist radicals in state government can deny a rightful winner the state's electoral votes and throw it to the House is bad enough - but in theory Democrats could have a majority of delegations at some point, or at least deny the GOP that majority.
But if it literally just means the state doesnt get counted then there is no stopping that.
So sure, in this particular election the situation is likely not that dire because the only swing state right now where the GOP has the ability to really do unilateral damage. But thats not a guarantee in the future - all of the swing states at the federal level are also swing states at the state level that could give up control to the GOP after one bad midterm (i.e. imagine we get the long called for recession in 2025 after a Harris win.)
The constitution explains exactly what happens though. The vp elect becomes acting president.
Yes of course - but in a world where Dems are winning two in IA, they likely have already won those other seats (most of which they already hold, or were very close in 2022 in the case of AZ).