I suspect that we are past the date where a candidate whose party loses a state by double digits in a presidential race can win a Senate race and that Tester is in real trouble for that reason. (The same goes for Maryland)
I suspect that we are past the date where a candidate whose party loses a state by double digits in a presidential race can win a Senate race and that Tester is in real trouble for that reason. (The same goes for Maryland)
I think general demographic trendlines are continuing to work in Trump's favor in Ohio and that the situation is Springfield is specifically beneficial for his message.
The trend lines you refer to from above, do you mean continuing the same as from 2016-2020? Trump won OH by 8.1 in 2016 and 8.0 in 2020. There were only three states where gained more than 2 point in 2020: FL (+2.2), HI (+2.7) and UT (+2.4).
So a gain of 2 points for Trump to +10 wouldnтАЩt be unheard of, but seems unlikely, whereas a gain of 4 points to +12 would be unprecedented for him.
Not saying it couldnтАЩt happen, but what is it you think has changed since 2020 that would make OH redder, and do you think this would be isolated? Or would we see similar Trump gains in the mid-west?
Keep in mind that Trump's 8.0 advantage in 2020 was still in line with Ohio being redder than the country given that Hillary won the national popular vote by 2.1% and Biden won by 4.5%. Now maybe Harris wins by more than 4.5% nationally and if so, perhaps my prediction of Ohio shifting at least 2 points further in Trump's direction is too bullish. That seems like a long shot though.
Even outside of PVI specifics, Trump's messaging is too on the nose for hitting the erogenous zones of Ohio's primary demographic groups to imagine that the trend line will lose momentum. Yes, I suspect Trump continues to make statistically significant gains with working-class whites throughout the Midwest. Every retired union member/loyalist Democrat that exits the rural Midwestern electorate seems to be getting replaced by a MAGA grandson entering the electorate. But as I said above, the Springfield situation specific to Ohio seems poised to have powerful regional salience that could flip votes everywhere from Portsmouth to Ashtabula.
Have to disagree about the effect of the Springfield story as well. The only people that appeals to are the true believers who were going to vote for Trump anyway. ItтАЩs such a preposterous lie that I just donтАЩt believe that there are a significant number of people who didnтАЩt buy into any of TrumpтАЩs previous bs, but are going to be converted by something so ridiculous.
The Springfield story is about vastly more than Trump's quip about eating dogs and cats. I think a supermajority of Ohio voters are able to have two things in their head at the same time.....not believing the hyperbole about Haitians eating people's pets AND that they really don't want the immigration situation going on in Springfield happening in their town.
I'm pretty confident Springfield will be helpful to Republicans. I can't imagine what the constituency would be in Ohio in support of the Springfield situation outside of the Chamber of Commerce and asylum policy apologists at Oberlin.
Again, I don't think the lies about eating dogs and cats will be the deciding factor of the Haitian immigrant situation swinging any votes. The fear of living in the next random town in Ohio whose schools and social services are deluged with tens of thousands of immigrants claiming asylum will be what swings votes.
Because of a minority of crazy people. I donтАЩt see how bomb threats to schools bc of lies about immigrants eating pets helps their cause with voters in the middle.
I am happy to report my mom has now said for a second time, while looking at my dad, тАЬWe are a split household this time and I canтАЩt vote for him. Trump is too angry.тАЭ And then she said the country would be awful and horrible with him as POTUS and heтАЩll probably end up dead, anyway. !!! Exactly why I doubted there would be any sympathy bump in the polls after the first one. His assassination attempts just reinforces the idea that he needs to go.
ItтАЩs anecdotal evidence but IтАЩm sure there are another million women just like her. Exurban, moderate and has had enough. They just want to live in peace and Trump as POTUS would be the opposite of that.
Collins outran Trump by 7%. although it was RCV so maybe she realy would have outrun him by 9-10% in a normal election. Sherrod Brown seems like he's gonna outrun Harris by 10% or so too.
So I wouldnt count Tester out just yet. But if he wins its going to be by the barest of margins.
I think Harris is going to do relatively well in Ohio thanks to the overtly racist Trump\Vance campaign; keeping the margin close enough for the re-election of Brown
I suspect that we are past the date where a candidate whose party loses a state by double digits in a presidential race can win a Senate race and that Tester is in real trouble for that reason. (The same goes for Maryland)
Exactly. With that in mind, I see a double-digit Trump win coming in Ohio this year.
Do you think Vance has helped Trump or hurt himself more in this election, or something else?
I think general demographic trendlines are continuing to work in Trump's favor in Ohio and that the situation is Springfield is specifically beneficial for his message.
I wouldn't be surprised if Trump wins OH in double digits although I'm guessing it'll likely be anywhere between 10-12% points.
He's managed in both 2016 and 2020 to make OH harder for Democrats to win at the presidential level.
Right. That's what I was thinking....Trump +10-12 in OH.
The trend lines you refer to from above, do you mean continuing the same as from 2016-2020? Trump won OH by 8.1 in 2016 and 8.0 in 2020. There were only three states where gained more than 2 point in 2020: FL (+2.2), HI (+2.7) and UT (+2.4).
So a gain of 2 points for Trump to +10 wouldnтАЩt be unheard of, but seems unlikely, whereas a gain of 4 points to +12 would be unprecedented for him.
Not saying it couldnтАЩt happen, but what is it you think has changed since 2020 that would make OH redder, and do you think this would be isolated? Or would we see similar Trump gains in the mid-west?
Keep in mind that Trump's 8.0 advantage in 2020 was still in line with Ohio being redder than the country given that Hillary won the national popular vote by 2.1% and Biden won by 4.5%. Now maybe Harris wins by more than 4.5% nationally and if so, perhaps my prediction of Ohio shifting at least 2 points further in Trump's direction is too bullish. That seems like a long shot though.
Even outside of PVI specifics, Trump's messaging is too on the nose for hitting the erogenous zones of Ohio's primary demographic groups to imagine that the trend line will lose momentum. Yes, I suspect Trump continues to make statistically significant gains with working-class whites throughout the Midwest. Every retired union member/loyalist Democrat that exits the rural Midwestern electorate seems to be getting replaced by a MAGA grandson entering the electorate. But as I said above, the Springfield situation specific to Ohio seems poised to have powerful regional salience that could flip votes everywhere from Portsmouth to Ashtabula.
Have to disagree about the effect of the Springfield story as well. The only people that appeals to are the true believers who were going to vote for Trump anyway. ItтАЩs such a preposterous lie that I just donтАЩt believe that there are a significant number of people who didnтАЩt buy into any of TrumpтАЩs previous bs, but are going to be converted by something so ridiculous.
The Springfield nonsense is going to hurt Trump and Vance nationwide; probably also in Ohio
The Springfield story is about vastly more than Trump's quip about eating dogs and cats. I think a supermajority of Ohio voters are able to have two things in their head at the same time.....not believing the hyperbole about Haitians eating people's pets AND that they really don't want the immigration situation going on in Springfield happening in their town.
Sorry, no. No matter how many times people try to insist it will be, immigration is just not going to be the major issue of this election.
I have to wonder whether the hysterical lies about the Haitian community in Springfield will be more beneficial or harmful to the Republicans.
I donтАЩt know how this will play out in OH except that it will be used by Democrats to fundraise.
Winning elections wise, it might help Brown a bit but I donтАЩt really know.
I'm pretty confident Springfield will be helpful to Republicans. I can't imagine what the constituency would be in Ohio in support of the Springfield situation outside of the Chamber of Commerce and asylum policy apologists at Oberlin.
Needless to say; imo you are completely wrong
Well, the Mayor of Springfield is exasperated over it and the Governor of Ohio spoke out against the lies.
Again, I don't think the lies about eating dogs and cats will be the deciding factor of the Haitian immigrant situation swinging any votes. The fear of living in the next random town in Ohio whose schools and social services are deluged with tens of thousands of immigrants claiming asylum will be what swings votes.
We shall see.
Because of a minority of crazy people. I donтАЩt see how bomb threats to schools bc of lies about immigrants eating pets helps their cause with voters in the middle.
I am happy to report my mom has now said for a second time, while looking at my dad, тАЬWe are a split household this time and I canтАЩt vote for him. Trump is too angry.тАЭ And then she said the country would be awful and horrible with him as POTUS and heтАЩll probably end up dead, anyway. !!! Exactly why I doubted there would be any sympathy bump in the polls after the first one. His assassination attempts just reinforces the idea that he needs to go.
ItтАЩs anecdotal evidence but IтАЩm sure there are another million women just like her. Exurban, moderate and has had enough. They just want to live in peace and Trump as POTUS would be the opposite of that.
Collins outran Trump by 7%. although it was RCV so maybe she realy would have outrun him by 9-10% in a normal election. Sherrod Brown seems like he's gonna outrun Harris by 10% or so too.
So I wouldnt count Tester out just yet. But if he wins its going to be by the barest of margins.
I'll be astonished if Brown outruns Harris by more than 5 or 6.
Then he's gonna lose and polling suggests he wont.
I think Harris is going to do relatively well in Ohio thanks to the overtly racist Trump\Vance campaign; keeping the margin close enough for the re-election of Brown
Mostly agree, but how do we explain Susan Collins