The trend lines you refer to from above, do you mean continuing the same as from 2016-2020? Trump won OH by 8.1 in 2016 and 8.0 in 2020. There were only three states where gained more than 2 point in 2020: FL (+2.2), HI (+2.7) and UT (+2.4).
So a gain of 2 points for Trump to +10 wouldnтАЩt be unheard of, but seems unlikely, whereas a gain of 4 points to +12 would be unprecedented for him.
Not saying it couldnтАЩt happen, but what is it you think has changed since 2020 that would make OH redder, and do you think this would be isolated? Or would we see similar Trump gains in the mid-west?
Keep in mind that Trump's 8.0 advantage in 2020 was still in line with Ohio being redder than the country given that Hillary won the national popular vote by 2.1% and Biden won by 4.5%. Now maybe Harris wins by more than 4.5% nationally and if so, perhaps my prediction of Ohio shifting at least 2 points further in Trump's direction is too bullish. That seems like a long shot though.
Even outside of PVI specifics, Trump's messaging is too on the nose for hitting the erogenous zones of Ohio's primary demographic groups to imagine that the trend line will lose momentum. Yes, I suspect Trump continues to make statistically significant gains with working-class whites throughout the Midwest. Every retired union member/loyalist Democrat that exits the rural Midwestern electorate seems to be getting replaced by a MAGA grandson entering the electorate. But as I said above, the Springfield situation specific to Ohio seems poised to have powerful regional salience that could flip votes everywhere from Portsmouth to Ashtabula.
Have to disagree about the effect of the Springfield story as well. The only people that appeals to are the true believers who were going to vote for Trump anyway. ItтАЩs such a preposterous lie that I just donтАЩt believe that there are a significant number of people who didnтАЩt buy into any of TrumpтАЩs previous bs, but are going to be converted by something so ridiculous.
The Springfield story is about vastly more than Trump's quip about eating dogs and cats. I think a supermajority of Ohio voters are able to have two things in their head at the same time.....not believing the hyperbole about Haitians eating people's pets AND that they really don't want the immigration situation going on in Springfield happening in their town.
Let's give that poll the benefit of the doubt and assume it's right. Do you suppose it's possible that the issue might be more salient in Ohio than it is nationwide since the situation is playing out in their backyard? Because at least in this thread, the discussion is about Ohio.
I wouldn't be surprised if Trump wins OH in double digits although I'm guessing it'll likely be anywhere between 10-12% points.
He's managed in both 2016 and 2020 to make OH harder for Democrats to win at the presidential level.
Right. That's what I was thinking....Trump +10-12 in OH.
The trend lines you refer to from above, do you mean continuing the same as from 2016-2020? Trump won OH by 8.1 in 2016 and 8.0 in 2020. There were only three states where gained more than 2 point in 2020: FL (+2.2), HI (+2.7) and UT (+2.4).
So a gain of 2 points for Trump to +10 wouldnтАЩt be unheard of, but seems unlikely, whereas a gain of 4 points to +12 would be unprecedented for him.
Not saying it couldnтАЩt happen, but what is it you think has changed since 2020 that would make OH redder, and do you think this would be isolated? Or would we see similar Trump gains in the mid-west?
Keep in mind that Trump's 8.0 advantage in 2020 was still in line with Ohio being redder than the country given that Hillary won the national popular vote by 2.1% and Biden won by 4.5%. Now maybe Harris wins by more than 4.5% nationally and if so, perhaps my prediction of Ohio shifting at least 2 points further in Trump's direction is too bullish. That seems like a long shot though.
Even outside of PVI specifics, Trump's messaging is too on the nose for hitting the erogenous zones of Ohio's primary demographic groups to imagine that the trend line will lose momentum. Yes, I suspect Trump continues to make statistically significant gains with working-class whites throughout the Midwest. Every retired union member/loyalist Democrat that exits the rural Midwestern electorate seems to be getting replaced by a MAGA grandson entering the electorate. But as I said above, the Springfield situation specific to Ohio seems poised to have powerful regional salience that could flip votes everywhere from Portsmouth to Ashtabula.
Have to disagree about the effect of the Springfield story as well. The only people that appeals to are the true believers who were going to vote for Trump anyway. ItтАЩs such a preposterous lie that I just donтАЩt believe that there are a significant number of people who didnтАЩt buy into any of TrumpтАЩs previous bs, but are going to be converted by something so ridiculous.
The Springfield nonsense is going to hurt Trump and Vance nationwide; probably also in Ohio
The Springfield story is about vastly more than Trump's quip about eating dogs and cats. I think a supermajority of Ohio voters are able to have two things in their head at the same time.....not believing the hyperbole about Haitians eating people's pets AND that they really don't want the immigration situation going on in Springfield happening in their town.
Sorry, no. No matter how many times people try to insist it will be, immigration is just not going to be the major issue of this election.
I guess we'll find out in seven weeks if the plurality of voters who say it is were lying to pollsters.
Is that what a plurality says they are most concerned about now? Not the economy?
HereтАЩs a recent poll https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/issues-and-the-2024-election/ showing immigration as tied for #5 with Violent Crime. ItтАЩs #2 with Trump supporters (no surprise there) but among Harris supporters it received the lowest amount of people saying itтАЩs a major issue.
Let's give that poll the benefit of the doubt and assume it's right. Do you suppose it's possible that the issue might be more salient in Ohio than it is nationwide since the situation is playing out in their backyard? Because at least in this thread, the discussion is about Ohio.
Agreed; economy will be #1